Bottom Line

Metcalf underwhelmed in fantasy football last year, finishing 24th among WRs in PPR points per game and 29th in non-PPR.

But he set a career high with 90 catches and ranked 15th among WRs with 1,048 receiving yards. He just got a bit unlucky to score only six TDs, despite plenty of targets near and in the end zone.

Expect positive TD regression in 2023 – and Metcalf to bounce back into fantasy’s top-20 WRs, with upside into the top 12.

What We Learned Last Year

• Metcalf caught 90 balls for 1,048 yards and 6 TDs last year.
• He finished 24th among WRs in PPR points per game and 29th in non-PPR points per game.
• Metcalf’s 90 catches were a career high.
• But his six TDs were a career low.
• So was his 6.7% TD rate. Metcalf scored on 13.4% of his receptions over his first three seasons. (League-wide WR TD rate is around 7.5%.)
• Metcalf ranked third league-wide and second among WRs with 27 red-zone targets. He ranked sixth among WRs in targets inside the 10-yard line and first in end-zone targets.
• Metcalf ranked third among WRs in expected TDs.
• He tied for 19th in actual TDs.
• In teammate Tyler Lockett’s 15 healthy games, Metcalf averaged 8.5 targets on a 25.2% target share to Lockett’s 7.7 targets and 22.8% target share.
• Lockett beat Metcalf in yards per target, yards per route run, and Pro Football Focus receiving grade last year.
• Metcalf’s ranks in those metrics among 80 WRs with 50+ targets:
  • yards per target: 53rd
  • yards per route run: 27th
  • PFF grade: 25th

What to Expect in 2023

• Prior to last year’s disappointing fantasy production, Metcalf had opened his career with the following finishes in PPR points per game:
  • 2019: 38th
  • 2020: 7th
  • 2021: 20th
• Here’s where he ranks among WRs over the past four seasons:
  • receptions: 13th
  • receiving yards: 13th
  • receiving TDs: ninth
  • PPR points per game: 22nd
• Metcalf will play most of the 2023 season at 25 years old. Our aging-curve research shows that WRs, on average, peak at age 25 or 26.
• Metcalf returns to the same offense (OC Shane Waldron) with the same QB (Geno Smith) in 2023.
• Last year’s Seahawks ranked:
  • 15th in pass attempts
  • 12th in pass rate
  • fifth in situation-neutral pass rate
  • eighth in pass rate over expected
• Seattle added WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the first round of this spring’s draft. He’s an exciting talent and should immediately play a significant role in this passing game. But that doesn’t mean he’ll steal much volume from Metcalf. Behind Metcalf and Lockett, Seattle’s other WRs combined for 75 targets last year. And the team’s top three TEs totaled 135 targets. Smith-Njigba could especially cut into that number if the Seahawks deploy more 3-WR sets.