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D.K. Metcalf - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsD.K. Metcalf's Basic Stats

D.K. Metcalf
ADP: 3.10
Bye: 5
Experience: 4 Yr(s)
Age: 25.8
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 235
40 Time: 4.33
Speed Score: 133.30
SPARQx (Rank): 139.70 (100%)
Burst Score (Rank): 135.90 (98%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.88 (3%)
Catch Radius (Rank): 10.32 (92%)

D.K. Metcalf's Weekly Outlook

Week 3 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
5 66.6 0.6 10.3
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
5.3 69 0.5 9.9

D.K. Metcalf's 2023 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#20 Wide Receiver

147.7 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
3.10 84.6 1021.4 7.6 2.6 0

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsD.K. Metcalf's Preseason Player Analysis

View WR Fantasy Rankings »
Bottom Line

Metcalf underwhelmed in fantasy football last year, finishing 24th among WRs in PPR points per game and 29th in non-PPR.

But he set a career high with 90 catches and ranked 15th among WRs with 1,048 receiving yards. He just got a bit unlucky to score only six TDs, despite plenty of targets near and in the end zone.

Expect positive TD regression in 2023 – and Metcalf to bounce back into fantasy’s top-20 WRs, with upside into the top 12.


What We Learned Last Year
  • Metcalf caught 90 balls for 1,048 yards and 6 TDs last year.
  • He finished 24th among WRs in PPR points per game and 29th in non-PPR points per game.
  • Metcalf’s 90 catches were a career high.
  • But his six TDs were a career low.
  • So was his 6.7% TD rate. Metcalf scored on 13.4% of his receptions over his first three seasons. (League-wide WR TD rate is around 7.5%.)
  • Metcalf ranked third league-wide and second among WRs with 27 red-zone targets. He ranked sixth among WRs in targets inside the 10-yard line and first in end-zone targets.
  • Metcalf ranked third among WRs in expected TDs.
  • He tied for 19th in actual TDs.
  • In teammate Tyler Lockett’s 15 healthy games, Metcalf averaged 8.5 targets on a 25.2% target share to Lockett’s 7.7 targets and 22.8% target share.
  • Lockett beat Metcalf in yards per target, yards per route run, and Pro Football Focus receiving grade last year.
  • Metcalf’s ranks in those metrics among 80 WRs with 50+ targets:
    • yards per target: 53rd
    • yards per route run: 27th
    • PFF grade: 25th

What to Expect in 2023
  • Prior to last year’s disappointing fantasy production, Metcalf had opened his career with the following finishes in PPR points per game:
    • 2019: 38th
    • 2020: 7th
    • 2021: 20th
  • Here’s where he ranks among WRs over the past four seasons:
    • receptions: 13th
    • receiving yards: 13th
    • receiving TDs: ninth
    • PPR points per game: 22nd
  • Metcalf will play most of the 2023 season at 25 years old. Our aging-curve research shows that WRs, on average, peak at age 25 or 26.
  • Metcalf returns to the same offense (OC Shane Waldron) with the same QB (Geno Smith) in 2023.
  • Last year’s Seahawks ranked:
    • 15th in pass attempts
    • 12th in pass rate
    • fifth in situation-neutral pass rate
    • eighth in pass rate over expected
  • Seattle added WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the first round of this spring’s draft. He’s an exciting talent and should immediately play a significant role in this passing game. But that doesn’t mean he’ll steal much volume from Metcalf. Behind Metcalf and Lockett, Seattle’s other WRs combined for 75 targets last year. And the team’s top three TEs totaled 135 targets. Smith-Njigba could especially cut into that number if the Seahawks deploy more 3-WR sets.

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Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

D.K. Metcalf, WR SEA

8 hours ago

D.K. Metcalf questionable for Week 3

Seahawks WR D.K. Metcalf (ribs) is listed as questionable for this weekend’s game vs. the Panthers. He was a full participant in Friday’s practice after sitting out the previous two days. Metcalf should play against Atlanta, but we should get another update on his status on Sunday morning.

View all D.K. Metcalf Shark Bites »

Seahawks WR D.K. Metcalf (ribs) missed his second straight practice on Thursday. HC Pete Carroll said earlier this week that he expected Metcalf to play vs. the Panthers on Sunday, but his status is worth checking back on tomorrow.

View all D.K. Metcalf Shark Bites »

Seahawks WR D.K. Metcalf (ribs) did not practice on Wednesday. Both he and HC Pete Carroll said that Metcalf will be available for this weekend's game vs. the Panthers. He can stay penciled into fantasy lineups, but we'll track his status over the next few days.

View all D.K. Metcalf Shark Bites »

Seahawks WR D.K. Metcalf suffered a rib injury in the first half of Sunday's game vs. the Lions and is questionable to return. We'll update his status when we know more.

Update: Metcalf returned to the game later in the first half

View all D.K. Metcalf Shark Bites »

Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba is having surgery on his left wrist in Philadelphia on Tuesday after breaking a bone Saturday night against Dallas. ESPN's Adam Schefter reports that the rookie "still could have a chance to be ready for the start of the regular season." The team should know more about his return timeline after the surgery. We'll await that news before judging whether to move JSN in our 2023 PPR rankings.

View all Jaxon Smith-Njigba Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View WR Dynasty Rankings »

D.K. Metcalf, WR SEA
Dynasty MVP 116.1
Position Rank #18 WR
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
377
596
1,035
Dynasty Write-up
Metcalf exceeded expectations alongside (surprise) breakout QB Geno Smith. The 25-year-old signed an extension in July of '22, keeping him under team control through the 2025 season.
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