Bottom Line

It’s easy to like the talent and role with London. The huge target share he earned as a rookie bodes well for him long term.

But it’s tough to expect big team passing volume in 2023 for an offense rolling out QB Desmond Ridder and a Bijan Robinson-led backfield.

London ultimately doesn’t stand out for us in a range of WR with plenty of upside options for 2023.

Feel free to keep/target him in your dynasty plans, though. Situations can change dramatically year to year.

What We Learned Last Year

• London saw his opportunities and production climb over the second half of his rookie season. From the first eight games to the second, he climbed from:
  • 6.1 targets per game to 7.6
  • 3.8 receptions per game to 4.7
  • 43.3 yards per game to 57.8
  • 7.06 yards per target to 7.65
  • 1.90 yards per route to 2.19
  • 9.6 PPR points per game to 11.8
• Two key factors affected those numbers.
  • TE Kyle Pitts went down for the season in Week 11. He led London in target share to that point.
  • QB Desmond Ridder took over for the final four games, following the Week 14 bye. Passing volume increased with Ridder in the lineup. And London averaged 9.0 targets, 6.3 receptions, and 83.3 yards per game in Ridder starts.
• For the season, London ranked sixth among all WRs in target share.
• The offense climbed from 32nd in neutral-situation pass rate across Marcus Mariota’s starts to 24th over Ridder’s time.
• Among 97 WRs with 40+ targets (including the playoffs), London ranked 10th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade and 14th in yards per route, but just tied for 61st in passer rating on balls thrown his way.
• Given the rest of the numbers, that seems more attributable to poor QB play than London.
• Among last year’s rookie WRs, London trailed only Garrett Wilson in receiving grade and ranked third in yards per route (behind Chris Olave and Christian Watson).

What to Expect in 2023

• London clearly established himself as Atlanta’s lead wideout last year. He’ll get Pitts back to compete for target share, but the Falcons continue to sport little beyond them. Mack Hollins and Scotty Miller project as the most likely second and third WRs heading into training camp.
• Even though Pitts edged him in targets in their shared time, London still ranked 13th among WRs in target share through the first 11 weeks. That puts him in a great position for opportunities … if the team only passed more.
• There’s some hope for a volume increase. In addition to Atlanta climbing in neutral pass rate after Ridder entered the lineup, the team ranked 14th in that category in 2021. That was HC Arthur Smith’s first season and QB Matt Ryan’s last.
• Of course, the eighth-overall selection of RB Bijan Robinson says we should expect this to remain among the league’s run-heavier offenses. That could prove especially true if Ridder disappoints in Year 2. Atlanta did, at least, sign QB Taylor Heinicke as insurance.