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Gabriel Davis - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsGabriel Davis's Basic Stats

Gabriel Davis
ADP: 8.7
Bye: 13
Experience: 3 Yr(s)
Age: 24.4
Height: 6'2"
Weight: 210
40 Time: 4.54
Speed Score: 103.10
SPARQx (Rank): 96.40 (27%)
Burst Score (Rank): 121.50 (52%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.67 (10%)
Catch Radius (Rank): 9.94 (33%)

Gabriel Davis's Weekly Outlook

Week 3 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
3.6 56.4 0.4 8
Weekly Writeup
Washington has struggled to contain the deep ball in the early going. Davis remains boom/bust, but give a bump up to his ceiling.

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
3.4 55.2 0.5 8.5

Gabriel Davis's 2023 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#35 Wide Receiver

132 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
8.7 53.9 882.4 7.3 2.2 0

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsGabriel Davis's Preseason Player Analysis

View WR Fantasy Rankings »
Bottom Line

Davis set several career highs in 2022, but he still proved highly inconsistent.

While Buffalo made plays for Odell Beckham and DeAndre Hopkins in recent months, their only notable offseason addition at pass catcher came via Round 1 TE Dalton Kincaid.

We’re not expecting instant success for Kincaid. But it’d be unwise to expect Davis, who’s entering a contract year, to suddenly develop into a consistent fantasy asset.

He settles in as a low-floor, high-ceiling WR3.

What We Learned Last Year
  • After an explosive end to the 2021-2022 postseason, Davis ultimately disappointed last fall.
  • He finished as a top-12 WR only twice and ranked outside WR56 five times.
  • On the year, he ranked 37th in PPR points per game.
  • Davis saw an OK 16.8% target share. It ranked well behind Stefon Diggs’ 28% share.
  • Nearly 19% of his PPR points came in a Week 5 game vs. Pittsburgh (3-171-2).
  • He certainly operated as Buffalo’s deep threat, with an average depth of target of nearly 17 yards.
  • Among 60 WRs with 70+ targets, Davis ranked second in yards per catch, 60th in catch rate, and 37th in yards per route run.
  • Davis missed one game with a high-ankle sprain (Week 2). He didn’t register stats for Week 17 due to the Bills-Bengals cancelation.
  • At the Combine, GM Brandon Beane pointed to the injury as a nuisance.
    • “Not to make excuses, but it definitely bothered him. You can just watch the film when he was coming out of his cuts, he was taking an extra step which allowed that defender to stay attached to him as well."
What to Expect in 2023
  • The Bills return the same OC (Ken Dorsey) and QB (Josh Allen).
    • In ‘22, the duo combined to help Buffalo rank 13th in pass rate; 8th in pass attempts per game.
  • Buffalo lost ~150 targets to free agency, mainly from RB Devin Singletary and WR Isaiah McKenzie.
  • The 2023 unit looks upgraded overall after the team added WR Deonte Harty and Round 1 TE Dalton Kincaid.
    • Kincaid (6’4, 246) profiles as the biggest threat to Davis, especially near the goal line. The former Utah star should arrive pro-ready at 24 (in October), although there’s a long history of rookie TEs underwhelming.
  • By all accounts, Davis, who participated in OTAs, is back to 100%. The high-ankle sprain that plagued him in ‘22 appears long gone.
  • Davis enters a contract year, and we’ve yet to see any reports on Buffalo pursuing an extension.

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Gabriel Davis, WR BUF

12:16pm EDT 8/16/23

Gabe Davis misses practice

Bills WR Gabe Davis sat out Wednesday's practice, but Sal Capaccio of WGR 550 reports it's just "general soreness" and that the team considers Davis day-to-day. This doesn't look like anything more than a rest day, but we'll keep watch.

View all Gabriel Davis Shark Bites »

Bills WR Gabe Davis suffered a high ankle sprain in practice ahead of the team's Week 2 game last season. He missed only that contest, but the injury likely impacted much more of his season. The Athletic's Joe Buscaglia reports that Davis "felt like he 'lost a step' ... and that impacted his whole year." The report adds that Davis "feels fully back to normal and healthy now." Even with that issue, Davis finished 35th among PPR WRs last season. That's higher than his WR41 ADP so far this year. We like the fourth-year wideout as a best ball value. Check out his standing in our 2023 WR rankings.

View all Gabriel Davis Shark Bites »

Bills WR Gabe Davis is looking to rebound from an injury-marred 2022. He suffered a high-ankle sprain in Week 2, returning after just one absence. According to GM Brandon Beane, Davis struggled to shake the pain. “Not to make excuses, but it definitely bothered him,” Beane said at the NFL Combine. "You can just watch the film when he was coming out of his cuts, he was taking an extra step which allowed that defender to stay attached to him as well." Davis’ boom-or-bust label likely sticks following the addition of rookie TE Dalton Kincaid. We at least saw flashes of the good last year with a pair of top-12 fantasy finishes. Most impressive: Davis’ 3-171-2 line vs. Pittsburgh in Week 5. See where he slots in our PPR WR rankings.

View all Gabriel Davis Shark Bites »

Bills QB Josh Allen wants to get WR Gabriel Davis in more "catch-and-run" situations this season. Davis was used largely as a deep threat last year, with 29.2% of his targets coming 20+ yards downfield -- the 9th highest rate among 74 qualifiers. His 2.7 yards after the catch per reception ranked 70th. That's likely somewhat a function of Davis' skill set -- but at least partly due to how the Bills deployed him. More catch-and-run opportunities certainly wouldn't hurt his fantasy value. Davis is coming cheaper in fantasy drafts this year than last, with an FFPC best-ball ADP currently sitting in Round 9.

View all Gabriel Davis Shark Bites »

Bills GM Brandon Beane said that the team envisions WR Deonte Harty filling the “four role." Harty got a surprisingly lucrative two-year, $9.5 million deal from Buffalo, but it doesn't sound like he's slated for an every-down job on offense. (Not surprising considering he's just 5'6 and 170 lbs.) With WR Isaiah McKenzie likely on the outs, Stefon Diggs, Gabriel Davis, and Khalil Shakir currently project as the Bills' top three WRs. We'll see if they add another WR in the draft.

View all Deonte Harty Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View WR Dynasty Rankings »

Gabriel Davis, WR BUF
Dynasty MVP 116.4
Position Rank #17 WR
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
359
596
1,102
Dynasty Write-up
Expectations were high for Davis following his postseason blowup in Kansas City (8-201-4). But his 2022 turned up more bust weeks than boom. Buffalo added target competition in Round 1 TE/"big slot" Dalton Kincaid.
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