Gabriel Davis - Fantasy Points Outlook

What You Need To Know:

• Davis saw a 10.1% target share last year. But from Week 14 through the postseason, he earned a larger role that included a 21.3% target share.
• On the year, Davis ran a route at a healthy clip — 93.1% of pass plays. It helped that Buffalo ranked 3rd league-wide in percentage of 4-WR sets.
• His 1.62 yards per route run marked a sizable increase from his rookie-year tally of 1.29.
• There’s room for growth on deep balls: Davis caught only 33.3% of his deep ball (20+ yard) targets.
• His rate of deep ball targets (24.6%) ranked 19th among 69 WRs with 10+ deep targets. Davis can win deep, especially with Josh Allen behind center.
• He posted 1 top-12 finish during the regular season; 4 others inside the top-30.
• Davis missed only 1 game all season (COVID list).
• Davis erupted in the postseason with an 8-catch, 201-yard (4 TD!) game at Kansas City.
• GM Brandon Beane gushed about Davis over the spring: “Gabriel, he’s a stud, and I mean that in all sense,” Beane said. “His habits, he is serious about football. Even his eyes. I mean, he’s got that look, the eye of the tiger. I’ll go to war with Gabe Davis any day of the week.”
• NFL insider Albert Breer writes that Bills WR Gabe Davis is “up in the mid-220s” and looks “bigger and leaner.” Breer added that Davis has “really earned Josh Allen’s trust” — something the QB has talked about this offseason.
• Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley departed in free agency. They leave behind 184 targets.
• Buffalo’s main offseason additions at pass catcher include RB James Cook, TE O.J. Howard and WRs Jamison Crowder and Khalil Shakir. Stefon Diggs returns as a target magnet.
• The Bills appear deeper at pass catcher, but Davis is easily their biggest ‘X factor.’ Only 23, he looks like 1 of the league’s top 3rd-year breakout candidates.
• Josh Allen returns for his 5th starting season, supplying Davis with one of the game’s elite playmakers.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Davis projects as a near full-time player alongside Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs. Buffalo added several pieces this offseason, but they don’t bring Davis’ combo of size and skill.

We saw the 23-year-old’s upside down the stretch last year. There’s a WR2 ceiling here, and while we wouldn’t go overweight, his Round 8 ADP is an acceptable range to mix in some best ball exposure.