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Gabriel Davis - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsGabriel Davis's Basic Stats

Gabriel Davis
ADP: N/A
Bye: 12
Experience: 4
Age: 25.5
Height: 6'2"
Weight: 225
40 Time: 4.54
Speed Score: 103.10

SPARQx (Rank): 96.40 (27%)
Burst Score (Rank): 121.50 (51%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.67 (11%)
Catch Radius (Rank): 9.90 (33%)

Gabriel Davis's Weekly Outlook

Week 6 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
2.6 34.7 0.22 4.7
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
2.9 41.7 0.3 6

Gabriel Davis's 2024 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#54 Wide Receiver

153.7 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
Not Available 50.4 725.8 5.12 0 0

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsGabriel Davis's Preseason Player Analysis

View WR Fantasy Rankings »

Bottom Line

The shine has worn off of the Davis hype from preseason of 2022. He went back to being the deep threat for the Bills over the past two seasons.

The Jaguars handing him $24 million guaranteed was a slight surprise given Davis’ overall lack of production, but it means he will get plenty of playing time this season.

Despite this, Davis will be big-play reliant and not a great target bet in Jacksonville. Trevor Lawrence is unlikely to latch onto Davis, making him a late-round shot who you have to start on the right weeks.

What We Learned Last Year

  • Davis’ per-game stat lines for the Bills were a step back from 2022:
    • 4.76 targets (6.20)
    • 2.65 receptions (3.20)
    • 43.9 yards (55.7)
    • 16.6 yards per catch (17.4)
    • 0.41 TDs (0.47)
  • He ranked as the PPR WR41 in total fantasy points and WR52 in points per game.
  • Davis did not miss a game due to injury. He has only missed one game in his four-year career.
  • He had five top-12 finishes. He also had eight WR37 or worse finishes.
  • Davis’ 16.6% target share was 60th among WRs.
  • Among 92 WRs with 40+ targets, he ranked:
    • 56th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade
    • 59th in yards per route run (1.34)
    • 8th in average target depth (15.6)
  • Among those same 92 WRs, Davis was 44th in average separation yards (2.8), per NFL Next Gen Stats.

What to Expect in 2024

  • Davis signed with the Jaguars on a three-year deal worth $39 million with $24 million guaranteed. His $13 million per year ranks 28th among WRs.
  • He will enter his first season with the Jaguars under HC Doug Pederson and OC Press Taylor.
  • Jacksonville lost WR Calvin Ridley in free agency but added first-round rookie Brian Thomas Jr. He, Davis, and Christian Kirk will be the top three WRs. We’ll see who stays on the field in two-WR sets.
  • The Jaguars are expected to perform similarly to last season. They are tied for the second-highest win total in the AFC South at 8.5 wins on most sportsbooks.
  • They sit 17th in terms of highest Super Bowl odds at +5000 on most sportsbooks, second highest in the division.
  • Davis enters his fifth season at 25 years old. According to our aging curve research, the average WR with Davis’ career and profile will produce at 91-97% of peak value at age-25.

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Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Gabriel Davis, WR JAC

16 hours ago

Gabe Davis Active

Jaguars WR Gabe Davis (knee) is active for today’s game vs. the Bears. He was limited in practice all week and listed as questionable. Davis, who’s averaging just 2.4 catches and 32 yards per game, is a weak fantasy play.

View all Gabriel Davis Shark Bites »

Jaguars WR Gabe Davis (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday morning’s game vs. the Bears. He got in three limited practices, so we’re expecting him to play. But hopefully Davis isn’t in your Week 6 fantasy plans. He’s averaging just 2.4 catches and 32 yards per game.

View all Gabriel Davis Shark Bites »

Jaguars WR Brian Thomas Jr. snagged an 85-yard catch-and-run TD in Sunday's victory over the Colts. That play drove his 5-122-1 line, the first 100-yard game of his career. WR Christian Kirk drew just 4 targets but caught them all for 88 yards. WR Gabe Davis also threw 4 targets, catching three for 38 yards and losing a fumble.

View Full Story »

Jaguars WR Gabe Davis (shoulder) is active for today’s game vs. the Texans. He was listed as questionable after being limited in practice all week. Davis would be a shaky Week 4 fantasy play.

View all Gabriel Davis Shark Bites »

Jaguars WR Gabe Davis (shoulder) is listed as questionable for this weekend’s game vs. the Texans. He should play after putting in three limited practices, but hopefully Davis isn’t in your Week 4 fantasy plans. He’s totaled just 123 scoreless yards through three games in a struggling Jaguars offense.

View all Gabriel Davis Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View WR Dynasty Rankings »

Gabriel Davis, WR JAC
Dynasty MVP 25.7
Position Rank #60 WR
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
268
426
727
Dynasty Write-up
Davis remained a volatile fantasy asset in 2023. We're not expecting his play style to change going forward, but the landing spot in Jacksonville (without Calvin Ridley) looks fine. Davis' short-term volume might ultimately depend on the growth of Round 1 WR Brian Thomas Jr.
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