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Gabriel Davis - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsGabriel Davis's Basic Stats

Gabriel Davis
ADP: 13.1
Bye: 12
Experience: 4
Age: 25.3
Height: 6'2"
Weight: 225
40 Time: 4.54
Speed Score: 103.10

SPARQx (Rank): 96.40 (27%)
Burst Score (Rank): 121.50 (51%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.67 (11%)
Catch Radius (Rank): 9.90 (33%)

Gabriel Davis's Weekly Outlook

Week 1 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
3.2 48.9 0.35 6.7
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
3.4 55.2 0.5 8.3

Gabriel Davis's 2024 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#48 Wide Receiver

163 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
13.1 51.2 782.4 5.6 0 0

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsGabriel Davis's Preseason Player Analysis

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Bottom Line

The shine has worn off of the Davis hype from preseason of 2022. He went back to being the deep threat for the Bills over the past two seasons.

The Jaguars handing him $24 million guaranteed was a slight surprise given Davis’ overall lack of production, but it means he will get plenty of playing time this season.

Despite this, Davis will be big-play reliant and not a great target bet in Jacksonville. Trevor Lawrence is unlikely to latch onto Davis, making him a late-round shot who you have to start on the right weeks.

What We Learned Last Year

  • Davis’ per-game stat lines for the Bills were a step back from 2022:
    • 4.76 targets (6.20)
    • 2.65 receptions (3.20)
    • 43.9 yards (55.7)
    • 16.6 yards per catch (17.4)
    • 0.41 TDs (0.47)
  • He ranked as the PPR WR41 in total fantasy points and WR52 in points per game.
  • Davis did not miss a game due to injury. He has only missed one game in his four-year career.
  • He had five top-12 finishes. He also had eight WR37 or worse finishes.
  • Davis’ 16.6% target share was 60th among WRs.
  • Among 92 WRs with 40+ targets, he ranked:
    • 56th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade
    • 59th in yards per route run (1.34)
    • 8th in average target depth (15.6)
  • Among those same 92 WRs, Davis was 44th in average separation yards (2.8), per NFL Next Gen Stats.

What to Expect in 2024

  • Davis signed with the Jaguars on a three-year deal worth $39 million with $24 million guaranteed. His $13 million per year ranks 28th among WRs.
  • He will enter his first season with the Jaguars under HC Doug Pederson and OC Press Taylor.
  • Jacksonville lost WR Calvin Ridley in free agency but added first-round rookie Brian Thomas Jr. He, Davis, and Christian Kirk will be the top three WRs. We’ll see who stays on the field in two-WR sets.
  • The Jaguars are expected to perform similarly to last season. They are tied for the second-highest win total in the AFC South at 8.5 wins on most sportsbooks.
  • They sit 17th in terms of highest Super Bowl odds at +5000 on most sportsbooks, second highest in the division.
  • Davis enters his fifth season at 25 years old. According to our aging curve research, the average WR with Davis’ career and profile will produce at 91-97% of peak value at age-25.

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Trevor Lawrence, QB JAC

8:37am EDT 6/14/24

Trevor Lawrence Now Signed With Jaguars Through 2030

The Jaguars and QB Trevor Lawrence agreed to a five-year, $275 million contract extension with $200 million guaranteed, ESPN reports. Lawrence now ranks second in the NFL in average annual salary and fourth in guaranteed money. The extension tacks on to the final two years of his current contract, meaning that Lawrence is now signed with the Jaguars through the 2030 season. He'll be 32 when the deal expires.

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The Jaguars released WR Zay Jones, saving $4.18 million against the 2024 salary cap. This move was inevitable after Jacksonville took WR Brian Thomas in the first round of the draft -- after signing WR Gabriel Davis in free agency. Jones missed seven games with knee and hamstring injuries last year but caught 82 balls back in 2022. The 29-year-old can still help an NFL team, although Jones is not a good bet to be a major fantasy asset in 2024 or beyond.

View all Zay Jones Shark Bites »

The Jaguars are signing WR Gabe Davis to a three-year deal, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. That could signal the team doesn't expect to be able to re-sign WR Calvin Ridley, who reached unrestricted free agency today. Jacksonville would have trouble fitting Ridley and Davis contracts under the cap, especially with Edge Josh Allen currently on the franchise tag ($24 million in 2024 salary). It also wouldn't make much sense for the team to pay both guys plus WRs Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, both of whom remain under contract. TE Evan Engram also got a hefty extension just before last season. There's room for Davis to earn at least as much target share as he found in Buffalo. The crowded Jacksonville corps could keep him frustrating as a fantasy option, though. Davis has been a nice best ball value so far this draft season, going 62nd among WRs. We'll see whether his new contract delivers a big boost. But we'll likely keep buying Davis in best ball. Check our best ball rankings to see how his new home affects him.

View all Gabriel Davis Shark Bites »

Bills HC Sean McDermott said Friday that WR Gabe Davis (knee) won't play Sunday against the Chiefs. That should mean a continued role increase for WR Khalil Shakir. But WR Trent Sherfield got an even bigger bump the past two games. He has played his two largest snap shares of the season -- 71% at Miami, 63% vs. Steelers -- in the game Davis left and then the playoff opener he missed. Sherfield didn't see a target against Pittsburgh, so he's only in range as a DFS flyer and for deeper fantasy formats. Shakir racked up 6-105 receiving in the regular-season finale but then drew just 3 targets against the Steelers. He presents intriguing upside but is also no lock for opportunities. The Bills will also go without CB Christian Benford and S Taylor Rapp.

View all Gabriel Davis Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View WR Dynasty Rankings »

Gabriel Davis, WR JAC
Dynasty MVP 83.9
Position Rank #93 WR
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
273
433
740
Dynasty Write-up
Davis remained a volatile fantasy asset in 2023. We're not expecting his play style to change going forward, but the landing spot in Jacksonville (without Calvin Ridley) looks fine. Davis' short-term volume might ultimately depend on the growth of Round 1 WR Brian Thomas Jr.
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