Gabriel Davis - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

The shine has worn off of the Davis hype from preseason of 2022. He went back to being the deep threat for the Bills over the past two seasons.

The Jaguars handing him $24 million guaranteed was a slight surprise given Davis’ overall lack of production, but it means he will get plenty of playing time this season.

Despite this, Davis will be big-play reliant and not a great target bet in Jacksonville. Trevor Lawrence is unlikely to latch onto Davis, making him a late-round shot who you have to start on the right weeks.

What We Learned Last Year

• Davis’ per-game stat lines for the Bills were a step back from 2022:
  • 4.76 targets (6.20)
  • 2.65 receptions (3.20)
  • 43.9 yards (55.7)
  • 16.6 yards per catch (17.4)
  • 0.41 TDs (0.47)
• He ranked as the PPR WR41 in total fantasy points and WR52 in points per game.
• Davis did not miss a game due to injury. He has only missed one game in his four-year career.
• He had five top-12 finishes. He also had eight WR37 or worse finishes.
• Davis’ 16.6% target share was 60th among WRs.
• Among 92 WRs with 40+ targets, he ranked:
  • 56th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade
  • 59th in yards per route run (1.34)
  • 8th in average target depth (15.6)
• Among those same 92 WRs, Davis was 44th in average separation yards (2.8), per NFL Next Gen Stats.

What to Expect in 2024

• Davis signed with the Jaguars on a three-year deal worth $39 million with $24 million guaranteed. His $13 million per year ranks 28th among WRs.
• He will enter his first season with the Jaguars under HC Doug Pederson and OC Press Taylor.
• Jacksonville lost WR Calvin Ridley in free agency but added first-round rookie Brian Thomas Jr. He, Davis, and Christian Kirk will be the top three WRs. We’ll see who stays on the field in two-WR sets.
• The Jaguars are expected to perform similarly to last season. They are tied for the second-highest win total in the AFC South at 8.5 wins on most sportsbooks.
• They sit 17th in terms of highest Super Bowl odds at +5000 on most sportsbooks, second highest in the division.
• Davis enters his fifth season at 25 years old. According to our aging curve research, the average WR with Davis’ career and profile will produce at 91-97% of peak value at age-25.