Hunter Henry Fantasy Overview

Henry Becomes a Viable Streamer

Henry supplied useful totals with 60 catches, 768 yards, and 7 TDs. Only four TEs scored more, helping him finish TE9 in PPR points and TE14 in points per game.

The 31-year-old logged two weeks as the top-scoring PPR tight end and four more inside the top 12, but he also had six weeks outside the top 20.

A Major Red Zone Role

Henry’s 16.7% target share ranked second among Patriots and 15th among TEs.

Henry made his biggest impact in the red zone, where his 33.8% RZ target share ranked second among all pass catchers and his six end-zone targets trailed only seven TEs.

Efficiency Turns Up Mixed Results

Among 49 TEs with 30+ targets, Henry finished:

• ninth in yards per target
• 16th in yards after catch per reception
• 17th in yards per route run
• 20th in fantasy points per route

Those finishes aren’t eye-popping, but Henry did post a career-best YAC per reception (5.6) and his highest YPPR (1.67) since 2017.

Maye's Breakout, Weak WR Depth Helped Henry

Drake Maye’s breakout produced 4,394 yards and 31 TDs, but it came on historically high efficiency, with New England finishing just 18th in plays and 23rd in pass attempts.

Henry’s volume benefited from a WR corps that offered little beyond No. 1 Stefon Diggs, who also played a career-low 54.7% of the snaps (adjusted for games missed).

Mack Hollins, 32, finished as the second-most productive WR with 46 catches, 550 yards, and 2 TDs.

Injuries a Non-Issue

Henry has enjoyed a healthy stretch over the past two seasons that included only one missed game (foot issue in 2024).

He sat out three games with an MCL sprain in 2023.

Targets Likely to Decline

Henry remains the No. 1 TE.

No. 2 TE Austin Hooper left in free agency, vacating 26 targets. The Pats spent a Round 3 pick on TE Eli Rairdon, but the one-year college starter is unlikely to cut into Henry’s production right away. Beyond Henry’s established role, history is working against Rairdon: Over the past 10 seasons, only 14.6% of TEs drafted in Round 3 or later have reached even 300 yards as rookies. That drops to 6.4% at the 400-yard level.

The bigger concern lies at WR, where New England added A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs. Brown cost New England a 2028 first-round pick and is likely to command more work than Diggs did last year. Diggs drew a 19.7% share. Brown’s target shares in Philly went:

• 24.5% (2022)
• 27.4% (2023)
• 31.1% (2024)
• 27.5% (2025)

Doubs just set career highs in catch rate, yards per catch, and yards per route run, and his deal with $39 million guaranteed makes it clear the team wants more from its No. 2 WR spot.

The WR upgrades explain our lower target-share projection for Henry. We have him at 15%, down nearly two percentage points from 2025.

Same Staff, But a Shift to More Passing is in Play

OC Josh McDaniels returns after leading an offense that finished 26th in pass rate but fifth in pass rate over expected and 18th in neutral pass rate. A similar pattern showed in the red zone, with New England finishing 16th in RZ pass rate and sixth in RZ pass rate over expected.

We project New England to throw more in Maye’s third season, but not enough to offset the added target competition for Henry.

Keep Ceiling Expectations in Check

Henry’s ceiling case likely requires significantly more passing volume to offset the added target competition. That’s possible if Maye keeps growing in Year 3, but even then, Henry’s only TE1 finishes in PPR points per game came much earlier in his career: TE12 in 2021, TE11 in 2020, and TE8 in 2019.

He’s more likely to top out as a priority streamer rather than emerge as a weekly fantasy starter.

New Targets Add Target Downside

Henry faces tougher target competition with Brown and Doubs joining the offense, which could chip away at his excellent 2025 red-zone role.

He’ll also have to absorb likely regression in Maye’s efficiency after last year’s historically high rates of 72% completions and 8.9 yards per attempt.