Bottom Line

Coming off a down 2022, Henry will look to rebound in a contract season.

New England’s offense looks better, thanks in large part to the addition of OC Bill O’Brien. Henry’s track record shows he can be a TE1 spot-starter, but you’re ultimately targeting him as a waiver wire add outside of deep leagues or best ball.

What We Learned Last Year

• Henry’s numbers regressed across the board. His 59 targets, 41 catches, 509 yards, and two TDs last year all marked his fewest since his 2016 rookie year.
• He played a full slate of games for the first time in his career.
• Henry still saw his target share drop from 14.3% (2021) to 11.3% (2022).
• Unsurprisingly, Henry wasn’t a major fantasy factor. He finished as a top-12 TE only three times.
• Among 27 TEs with 50+ targets, Henry sat 13th in catch rate, fourth in yards per catch, and 11th in yards after catch per reception. So it wasn't like Henry showed he's washed up at 28.
• Henry wasn’t lifted up by a Pats offense that ranked 22nd in pass attempts, 21st in passing yards, and 28th in red zone attempts per game.
• Mac Jones regressed in several key metrics last year (completion rate, on-target rate, yards per attempt, TD rate).

What to Expect in 2023

• The Pats moved on from No. 2 TE Jonnu Smith, who saw only 38 targets in 14 games.
• New England invested in free agent TE Mike Gesicki with a one-year deal ($3.5 million guaranteed). He’s an upgrade on Smith – but not a lock for a major role.
• In 2022, Gesicki set four-year lows in routes run (379), targets (52), catches (32), and yards (362).
• Gesicki is more receiver than blocker and has experience playing slot and out wide. He’s not a threat to steal serious in-line snaps from Henry.
• New England’s No. 1 target projects as JuJu Smith-Schuster, who joined the club on a 3-year deal that includes $16 million guaranteed.
• New OC Bill O’Brien arrives as an upgrade on a ‘22 staff that featured Matt Patricia in a key offensive role.
• New England will look for more from third-year QB Mac Jones. We see a rebound given the upgrade at OC.