Jameson Williams - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Williams’ boom/bust play profile will make him more fun to have on a best ball roster than when you need to set your weekly lineup. But he presents enough upside to be worth a shot deep in WR4 (or even WR5) territory across formats.

What We Learned Last Year

• Year 2 was better, but we still didn’t learn a whole lot about Williams.
• He doubled his appearances, from six games as a rookie to 12. And that probably would have been higher without a season-opening suspension for betting.
• Williams still played a limited role, though. He trailed well behind the playing-time rates of Amon-Ra St. Brown and Josh Reynolds but moved clearly ahead of Kalif Raymond
• Williams topped three targets in just four of 15 games (including the playoffs). He caught more than two passes in a game just twice.
• Detroit unsurprisingly sought to take advantage of his speed. Williams’ 15.8-yard average depth of target beat his nearest teammate by 5.7, according to Pro Football Reference. Reynolds was the only other Lion in double figures.
  • Williams still trailed four teammates in yards per route.
  • He ranked fifth among Lions WRs in catch rate.
• His 2023 usage aligns with what we saw from Williams in his limited college career.
  • Williams spent two near-silent years buried on the depth chart at Ohio State.
  • Then he transferred to Alabama and exploded for 1,572 yards and 15 TDs on 79 catches.
  • His 14.5-yard aDOT led that team.
  • His 3.12 yards per route ranked 13th nationally among 334 WRs who drew 40+ targets.

What to Expect in 2024

• This same set of Lions leadership traded up from 32nd to 12th to grab Williams in 2022. That was the draft immediately following St. Brown’s second-half breakout. So we already know the coaches/front office love Williams’ talent.
• After two disappointing pro seasons, though, his outlook will likely depend pretty heavily on how they feel about Williams now. And HC Dan Campbell spoke highly this offseason.
  • “We’re two practices in (to OTAs) and if you said, ‘Give me one player that is the most improved from that start to finish in that time,’ and Jamo would be that guy right now,” Campbell said in May. “He is a man on a mission, and I’m just going to leave it at that.”
  • Asked what areas Williams had improved, Campbell added “everywhere.”
  • WRs coach Antwaan Randle-El echoed the sentiment in mid-June: “Just about everything that we talked about for him improving and helping our offense, he’s hit. One of the biggest things was just his strength in terms of route running and not getting pushed off the spot. … Just where he was at the end of the year to where he is now, how he’s gotten there, he’s really worked on it. … His route tree is expanded, and we’re going to continue to help him to expand it because he’s definitely going to help us in our offense, much like he did last year.”
• Detroit has run out one of the league’s top offenses over the past two years, ranking top 5 in scoring and total yards each year; along with 12th and second in total plays.
• It’s not the optimal spot for overall passing volume, despite the No. 9 ranking in pass attempts last year.
  • The Lions ranked just 25th in situation-neutral pass rate last year – and rank the same over the two years OC Ben Johnson has been at his post.
  • St. Brown stands as a target hog in the lead WR spot, coming off a No. 5 ranking among WRs in target share.
  • Rookies TE Sam LaPorta and RB Jahmyr Gibbs each ranked among the top 8 at their positions in targets last year as well.
• But Williams should have a clear path to the No. 2 WR gig. Last year’s No. 2 Josh Reynolds left in free agency, vacating 11% of last year’s targets. If Williams can combine his target share from last year with Reynolds’, that would be rough to crack the top 40 at the position (by last year’s numbers).
• If Williams hits, his downfield game will mean better per-target scoring efficiency than many other wideouts.
  • Deep passing has been an iffy area for Goff over the past few years. But he’s coming off the best deep-ball (20+ air yards) completion rate of his career, according to Pro Football Focus. And Goff’s 2023 PFF deep-passing grade tied his career high.
  • He ranked among the top 10 QBs in both categories last year.