Jerome Ford - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Ford produced well in Nick Chubb’s absence last season and can help fantasy teams again if Chubb is sidelined. We’ll have to watch through the summer to see what the season-opening plan is, though. That uncertainty makes it difficult to view any Browns RB as an early-season starter at draft time. Ford fits best as an RB4 (or later) on your fantasy roster.

What We Learned Last Year

• Ford obviously benefited from Nick Chubb’s Week 2 knee injury. From Week 3 on, Ford ranked 16th among RBs in PPR points, even though he ranked just 29th in opportunity share over that span.
• Ford ranked 11th among RBs in total targets during that time; 24th in carries.
• He did so despite contending with a late-season ankle sprain and sharing work with Kareem Hunt. Ford worked well ahead in opportunity share; Hunt ranked 45th over the same span.
• Ford proved just OK on efficiency.
  • He tied for 29th in yards after contact per carry among 59 RBs with 70+ carries. (Hunt ranked 59th.)
  • Ford ranked 24th in elusive rating. (Hunt last.)
  • He finished 28th in rush yards over expected per carry among 49 qualifying RBs, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. (Hunt ranked 48th.)
  • Among 61 RBs who drew at least 20 targets, Ford tied for 32nd in yards per route. (Hunt tied for 59th.)

What to Expect in 2024

• Chubb heads toward the season as a big unknown. He refused to set a return timeline in talking to reporters in early June. We’ll see whether he’s ready to start training camp on time and what his participation looks like.
• Cleveland didn’t add much at RB in the offseason, signing only D’Onta Foreman and Nyheim Hines to one-year deals.
  • Hines likely arrives primarily for his return-game upside. He’s also coming off an ACL tear suffered last July in a Jetski accident.
  • Foreman got a small one-year deal, just like he did in Chicago last year, Carolina the year before, and Tennessee the year before that.
  • Either/both could factor into the regular-season backfield. But neither addition tells us anything about what to expect from the group in 2024.
• The Browns did switch OCs, hiring Ken Dorsey just a few months after the Bills fired him. Dorsey ran one of the league’s most pass-leaning offenses over about a season and a half as Buffalo OC. The Browns ranked 19th in situation-neutral pass rate over the past two years.
  • Perhaps the Dorsey hire and trade-extension for WR Jerry Jeudy signals a bit more of a pass lean in 2024.
  • If so, that should favor Ford. Chubb has always been a limited receiver, as has Foreman.