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John Brown - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

John Brown
LVR

WR LVR

#79 Wide Receiver

70 Projected Points

ADP: 15.6
Bye: 8
Experience: 7 Yr(s)
Age: 31
Height: 5'10"
Weight: 178
40 Time: 4.34

2021 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#79 Wide Receiver

70 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
15.6 38 522 3 0

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

3d Projection

Med Floor

59.5

DS Projection

70

Consensus

38 other sites
119

High Ceiling

115.5

Ceiling Likelihood

Medium
How likely they will reach their ceiling projection

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • Brown caught 33 balls for 458 yards and 3 TDs in 9 regular-season games for the Bills last year.
  • He missed Weeks 5 and 7 and was noticeably hobbled in Week 6 by a knee injury. Then he landed on IR and missed 5 games late in the season with a right ankle injury. He also exited Week 3 early with a calf injury and was pulled early from Buffalo’s meaningless Week 17 contest.
  • So Brown played 70+% of the offensive snaps in only 7 games last year. He averaged 6.3 targets, 3.8 catches, 52.3 yards and .33 TDs in those outings.
  • That’s 11.1 PPR points per game, which would have ranked just 50th among WRs.
  • Among 87 WRs with 50+ targets last year, Brown ranked 51st in yards per route run and 55th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade.
  • It was all a big step back from 2019, Brown’s first with the Bills.
    • He posted a 72-1,060-6 line in 15 games.
    • He finished 22nd among WRs in PPR and non-PPR points.
    • He ranked 22nd in yards per route run and 24th in PFF receiving grade among 81 WRs with 50+ targets.
  • Brown turned 31 in April, so it’s possible that last year was the beginning of the end.
  • He was released by the Bills in March and later agreed to a 1-year, $3.75 million deal with the Raiders. That makes him just the 48th highest-paid WR in terms of average annual salary.
  • Snaps and targets are up for grabs in Vegas’ WR corps …
    • The Raiders lost Nelson Agholor, who led the WRs and ranked 2nd on the team with 82 targets last year, in free agency.
    • Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards return after disappointing rookie seasons.
    • Hunter Renfrow, who’s ranked 2nd on the Raiders in catches both of the past 2 years, is also back.
  • TE Darren Waller returns after easily leading Vegas with 117 and then 146 targets the last 2 seasons. He’s the heavy favorite to lead in targets again.
  • The Raiders have ranked 16th, 21st and 21st in Jon Gruden’s 3 seasons at the helm. This figures to remain a run-leaning offense in 2021.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Brown is just 2 years removed from a 1,060-yard season for the Bills. But he’s coming off an injury-riddled and ineffective 2020 campaign, turned 31 in April and settled for a cheap, 1-year deal with the Raiders as a free agent.

We’ll see if Brown can bounce back. If he can, there’s a chance he climbs to the top of a young, unproven Vegas WR depth chart.

 

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Adam Caplan reports that the Raiders have agreed to a 1-year deal with WR John Brown, worth up to $5.5 million. The Bills released the 30-year-old (31 in April) earlier this offseason in a cost-cutting move. Brown averaged a nice 14.5 yards per catch on 4.4 receptions per game over 2 years in Buffalo. Brown saw his numbers limited last year by knee and ankle injuries plus Stefon Diggs' hostile takeover of targets. With the Raiders, Brown carries upside at least into WR3 range for fantasy, which is where Nelson Agholor ranked in his rebound 2020 season (33rd in PPR points).

View all John Brown Shark Bites »

The Bills released WR John Brown, saving $7.9 million against the 2021 salary cap. Brown posted a career-best 72-1,060-6 line in his Buffalo debut in 2019 but missed 7 outings and saw his per-game numbers decline this past season. He turns 31 in April. The Bills have an in-house replacement in 2020 4th-rounder Gabriel Davis, who averaged 17.1 yards per catch and scored 7 times as a rookie. His numbers should take a nice leap forward this coming season. We projected Brown to be cut by the Bills, so there are no changes to the rankings.

View all John Brown Shark Bites »

The Athletic's Joe Buscaglia expects the Bills to release WR John Brown this offseason. It'd save the team $7.2 million against the 2021 cap. Brown turns 31 in April and missed 7 games this past season with calf, knee and ankle injuries. Buffalo has a ready-made replacement in WR Gabriel Davis, who was impressive on his way to a 35-599-7 line as a rookie. Highlight Davis as a sleeper in 2021 fantasy drafts.

View all John Brown Shark Bites »

Bills WR John Brown (ankle) is active for today’s game against the Dolphins. It’s unclear how much he’ll play coming off the ankle injury in a game that Buffalo might not be going all out to win.

View all John Brown Shark Bites »

Bills WR John Brown has been activated from the COVID list. He still hasn't played since a Week 10 ankle injury. We'll see if Buffalo brings him back for Sunday's regular-season finale vs. Miami.

View all John Brown Shark Bites »

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