Kareem Hunt - Fantasy Points Outlook

What You Need to Know:

• Hunt finished last season 21st in PPR and half-PPR points per game among RBs. That almost exactly matches his rankings in each category from 2020, Hunt’s 1st full year with the Browns.
• Over the past 2 seasons, he ranks 27th among RBs in opportunities per game.
• Hunt’s 7 healthy games in 2021 saw him garner 36% of Browns carries and 11.6% of targets. (He played just 1 healthy game without Nick Chubb.)
• 2020, which saw Hunt play every game, produced shares of 33.3% carries and 9.3% targets with Chubb; 54.7% and 9.3%, respectively, without him.
• Among 95 RBs with at least 100 opportunities (carries + targets) over the past 2 seasons, Chubb ranked 12th in total TD rate (4.56% of opportunities) and Hunt ranked 14th (4.52%).
• Hunt ranked 6th in both yards after contact per attempt and Pro Football Focus elusive rating last season among 61 RBs with 70+ carries. That was up from 13th and 12th, respectively, in 2020.
• Hunt narrowly trailed Chubb in red-zone snap rate last year: 51% to 45%. He tied for 38th at the position, vs. Chubb’s tie for 27th.
• Hunt’s ADP has fallen this year. He sits in the middle of Round 8 in FFPC best-ball drafting and early in Round 8 on Underdog, as RB32 in both places. Hunt went mid-Round 5 in 2021 BestBall10s drafting; early Round 6 in 2020.
• He missed 9 games last season amid 4 different injuries. None looks like an issue going forward.
• Cleveland can still unload Hunt without a cap penalty. The team retained D’Ernest Johnson as a restricted free agent this offseason.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

There’s been much more change to the perception of Hunt than the reality of his production, if you compare this year’s ADPs with last season. At his Round 5-6 price in 2021 drafts, Hunt needed a Nick Chubb injury to keep him from disappointing. He got that, but lost more time to his own injuries. Fantasy drafters might be overreacting to that and/or Hunt’s potentially uncertain contract status. Even if the Browns unload Hunt this summer, we’d bet on him landing in a situation with work available. And he’s a high-upside talent in any backfield.