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Fantasy Football Start Sit Week 14: Packers Tame The Bears
Week 14 is tough.
Are you fighting for playoff positioning, or maybe even just to qualify for the postseason?
If so, you might be more prone to over-thinking every decision, perhaps even doubting some of the guys who got you here because they suddenly face a lackluster matchup.
Well, we're sorting through some of the week’s best and worst matchups below to help you set your lineups with confidence -- from Jordan Love’s favorable draw to risky Bears plays and more.
The right lineup decisions, powered by Draft Sharks rankings, can make all the difference.
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Week 14 Byes
- Carolina Panthers
- New England Patriots
- New York Giants
- San Francisco 49ers
Your Draft Sharks Team Intel page will help you set your ideal lineup, applying our award-winning weekly projections to your custom scoring.
Quarterbacks
Jordan Love looks poised to outduel Caleb Williams
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Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
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Love snapped a month-long slump with 4 TDs and 0 INTs against the Lions. He draws an even better matchup this week against a Bears defense that has surrendered the fourth-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to QBs.
Chicago has allowed 24 TD passes, tied for second-most in the league, and has been especially vulnerable on the road. The Bears have given up 18 TD passes in seven road games (2.6 per contest). And the Packers might even get WR Jayden Reed back.
Green Bay carries the sixth-highest implied total (25.5) for the week, positioning Love for another strong outing.
Sit
Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
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The matchup on the other side is far less appealing. Green Bay has allowed the fifth-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points to QBs. The Packers also rank sixth in passing yards allowed per game (186.5) and ninth in TD passes allowed (15).
Chicago’s offense now runs through its backfield. Since Week 7, the Bears have averaged 184.6 rushing yards per game. Williams has averaged 220.4 passing yards over that span and has thrown 1 TD pass or fewer in five of those seven games. He has also finished outside the top-20 QBs four times.
Green Bay also ranks eighth against the run, which puts more pressure on Williams in a difficult spot. Chicago is implied for just 19 points.
Williams averaged 189.5 passing yards with 1 TD in two games against the Packers last season. Week 14 sets up for another underwhelming performance, making him a QB to avoid.
Running Backs
Green Bay's run defense will be a tough matchup for D'Andre Swift
Start
Jordan Mason, Minnesota Vikings
Aaron Jones injured his shoulder in Week 13. He’s considered day-to-day, but he also sprained the same AC joint in Week 9. Minnesota could take a cautious approach this week.
Week 14 brings an ideal matchup. Washington has allowed the third-most fantasy points to RBs and 5 rushing TDs to the position over the last three games. Mason has handled 75% of Minnesota’s carries inside the 5, making him the better bet for a short TD -- especially with Jones’ shoulder concern.
If Jones plays, Mason still offers RB3 potential with TD upside. If Jones sits, start Mason as an RB2 in a premium matchup.
Devin Neal, New Orleans Saints
Alvin Kamara (knee) has not practiced and looks unlikely to return this week. Neal’s first start produced excellent usage:
- 81% snap share
- 71% route rate
- 58% carry share
- 10% target share
- 17 touches
Neal turned those touches into only 69 yards, but he has scored 9.9+ PPR points in back-to-back games. Evan Hull (13 snaps) was the only other Saints RB to play.
The matchup also works in Neal’s favor. Tampa Bay has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to RBs, including surrendering a league-high 56.8 receiving yards per game to backs
With the Saints as 8.5-point underdogs, the offense should lean heavily on the short passing game. Neal owns a 13% target share over his last three outings.
Neal’s volume, especially as an outlet receiver, puts him in RB2 territory in Week 14.
Sit
D’Andre Swift, Chicago Bears
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Swift erupted for 125 yards and a TD last week, but Week 14 presents a much tougher test. Chicago travels to Green Bay, which allows the ninth-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points to RBs.
Swift missed Week 5, which opened the door for Kyle Monangai to carve out a steady role. Swift has dipped from a 61% carry share and 14% target share before the Week 5 bye to 50% of carries and 8% of targets since.
Chicago has increased its rushing lean significantly over that second span, keeping Swift's rushing volume strong. But the receiving dip -- including a mere four targets and 2 catches over his past three games -- looks especially worrisome this week.
The Packers arrive as 6.5-point favorites, seventh-best in total defensive DVOA, and sixth-best in yards allowed per carry.
Swift topped 20 PPR points against the Eagles last week but will likely need a big receiving rebound to offer worthwhile scoring this week. Unfortunately, we can't count on that right now.
Kareem Hunt, Kansas City Chiefs
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Isiah Pacheco returned last week but still trailed Hunt in snaps (42-20) and routes (25-10). Even so, the Chiefs’ approach sputtered against Dallas, and the matchup now shifts dramatically. Houston ranks first in total defense and has allowed the third-fewest rushing yards.
The one path to RB production against Houston is through the air. The Texans have allowed the 16th-most receptions to RBs. However, Hunt has topped one catch in a game only once since Week 1. Pacheco caught two passes last week, and Brashard Smith has multiple receptions in six of his last eight games.
Former Texans RB Dameon Pierce is also practicing and could debut against his old team, further clouding the backfield.
Hunt has been held under 60 rushing yards in 10 of 11 games and offers little receiving value. He remains TD-dependent in a matchup where TDs will be hard to find. Treat him as an RB3.
Wide Receivers
Christian Watson will stay hot versus a porous Bears' secondary
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Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers
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Jordan Love is positioned for a strong Week 14, and that boosts Watson. Since returning in Week 8, Watson has established himself as Love’s top option.
He leads all Packers WRs in route rate (78%), target share (20%), fantasy points per game (12.6), and air yards share (42%). Among NFL WRs with 30-plus targets, Watson ranks third in ADOT (19.4) and second in receptions of 15-plus yards. He has posted 18+ PPR points in two of his last three.
He has reclaimed his role as one of the league’s premier deep threats. That skill set is especially valuable against a Chicago defense prone to explosive plays. The Bears struggle on downfield throws (15+ yards) to WRs, ranking bottom-3 league wide in each of these categories, according to ESPN:
- 51.6% completion rate
- 7 TDs
- 78.8 receiving yards per game
Overall, the Bears secondary has allowed the fourth-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to WRs. Watson profiles as a strong WR3 with WR2 upside.
Jakobi Meyers, Jacksonville Jaguars
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Meyers is peaking at the right time. He has six targets and 50+ yards in three straight games, with TDs in his last two.
In his four games with the Jaguars, Meyers owns a 23% target share and has produced WR14 numbers (13.7 PPR points per game).
The Colts are trending in the opposite direction. They have lost three of their last four and have allowed 429 total yards per game in their last two. Indianapolis has also given up a 20+ PPR WR performance in three straight outings and allows the ninth-most fantasy points to the position.
After slogging through a stagnant Raiders offense, Meyers has been a clear upgrade for Jacksonville. He’s a solid WR2 in Week 14.
Sit
Rome Odunze, Chicago Bears
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Odunze opened the season hot with a 27% target share and a WR3 overall ranking through four weeks. Since the Week 5 bye, his production has been erratic.
Over his last eight games, he has topped 18 PPR points twice but has been held under 6 points four times. Since Week 6, he ranks as the WR43. Caleb Williams’ struggles -- 29th in success rate and last in completion rate -- have lowered Odunze’s ceiling and floor. The wideout has scored 8.3 or fewer PPR points in four of his last five games.
A trip to Green Bay won’t help. The Packers rank sixth against the pass and have allowed the 12th-fewest fantasy points to WRs. Chicago’s 19-point implied total (sixth-lowest) further limits his outlook.
Odunze is a risky WR3/Flex play this week.
Xavier Worthy, Kansas City Chiefs
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Worthy topped 10 PPR points on Thanksgiving for the first time since Week 8, but that production came against a Dallas defense that allows the most fantasy points to WRs. Week 14 brings a far tougher draw. The Texans allow the third-fewest points to the position.
Worthy’s role has shrunk since Rashee Rice returned in Week 7. Before Rice’s debut, Worthy led Kansas City WRs with a 21% target share and averaged 12.9 PPR points per game (WR21 from Weeks 4-6). Since then, he has dropped to an 18% share and 8.5 PPR points per game -- WR50 over the span.
His recent yardage spikes came against bottom-10 WR defenses. Houston is not such a matchup. Try to avoid Worthy in Week 14.
Tight Ends
Oronde Gadsden's struggles continue
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Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills
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Kincaid has missed three games with a hamstring injury but returned to limited practice and is tentatively expected to suit up in Week 14. If he does, he walks into one of the best TE matchups on the slate.
Cincinnati has allowed the most receptions (86), yards (1,121), and TDs (13) to TEs this season. No other defense has surrendered even 865 yards or more than 8 TDs. In their last seven games, the Bengals have given up 11 TE touchdowns.
Nine TEs have scored double-digit fantasy points against Cincinnati in that span. Kincaid is well-positioned to be the next. Per Fantasy Points Data, he leads all TEs in yards per route (3.37) and PPR points per target (0.27).
He also ranks ninth at the position with 12.2 PPR points per game and has posted TE3, TE12, TE8, and TE3 finishes in his last four games with a route rate above 50%.
Kincaid is set up for a smash spot in a Buffalo offense projected for a slate-leading 29 points.
Sit
Oronde Gadsden II, Los Angeles Chargers
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Gadsden dominated weeks 6-9, averaging 18.4 PPR points and led LA’s skill position players with a 78% snap share. But his production has collapsed.
Across his last three games, Gadsden has only 6 catches and has been hobbled by a knee injury. The Chargers’ passing volume has cratered as well.
From Weeks 6-9, L.A. averaged 36.8 pass attempts and 269.5 passing yards. In their last three, the Chargers are down to 26.7 passes and 147 yards per contest.
The entire passing attack has suffered, but Gadsden, who hasn’t topped 45 receiving yards since Week 9, has become particularly difficult to start. Justin Herbert is also dealing with a broken hand, which further lowers the ceiling.
On top of that, the Chargers face an Eagles defense that allows the third-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points to TEs. With Herbert injured and Omarion Hampton expected back, Los Angeles will likely lean on the run.
This matchup and game script make Gadsden a poor bet to rebound in Week 14.
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