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Keenan Allen - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsKeenan Allen's Basic Stats

Keenan Allen
ADP: 4.8
Bye: 5
Experience: 10 Yr(s)
Age: 31.4
Height: 6'2"
Weight: 211
40 Time: 4.76
Speed Score: 84.90

Keenan Allen's Weekly Outlook

Week 4 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
8 94.9 0.6 13.2
Weekly Writeup
Allen's target share just might go through the roof. He's already tallied a 33% target share with Mike Williams, and now he's done for the year. Allen should have no problem delivering against an unproven Vegas secondary.

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
7.1 76.7 0.6 11

Keenan Allen's 2023 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#7 Wide Receiver

176.1 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
4.8 112.9 1226.5 8.9 3.1 0

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsKeenan Allen's Preseason Player Analysis

View WR Fantasy Rankings »
Bottom Line

The first half of Allen’s 2022 was wrecked by a hamstring injury. But he was awesome over the second half, ranking third among WRs in PPR points and sixth in non-PPR.

Allen has now finished as a top-13 WR in PPR points per game in six straight seasons. And the 31-year-old has shown no signs of decline.

First-round rookie WR Quentin Johnston adds target competition in 2023. But there’s plenty of volume in the Chargers’ pass-heavy offense to support at least another WR2-level season for Allen.

Circle his name as a likely value in your fantasy drafts.


What We Learned Last Year
  • Allen went down with a hamstring injury in the season opener. He missed the next five games, aggravated the injury in Week 7, and then missed another two games.
  • Over the final eight games, he totaled:
    • 83 targets
    • 60 catches
    • 675 yards
    • 4 TDs
  • Only Justin Jefferson saw more targets than Allen over that span. No WR caught more balls.
  • Allen garnered 26.6% of Chargers targets from Week 11 on, the 15th-biggest target share among WRs.
  • He ranked third among WRs in PPR points over his final eight games; sixth in non-PPR.
  • Allen underachieved in the TD department last year. He scored four times on 66 catches. That 6.1% TD rate is well below the league average of 7.5%, and below Allen’s career average of 6.6%.
  • Allen has averaged 6+ catches and 70+ yards per game in six straight seasons.
  • His finishes in PPR points per game:
    • 2017 - 4th
    • 2018 - 12th
    • 2019 - 8th
    • 2020 - 6th
    • 2021 - 13th
    • 2022 - 12th
  • Allen turned 31 in April but has shown no signs of decline. In fact, he improved his Pro Football Focus receiving grade and yards per route run from 2021 to 2022. Last year’s marks both ranked 12th among 80 WRs with 50+ targets.

What to Expect in 2023
  • The Chargers made a change at OC, canning Joe Lombardi and replacing him with Kellen Moore.
  • Like Lombardi, Moore is a pass-leaning play caller. Three of his four Cowboys offenses ranked top 10 in both pass attempts and yards. The Chargers should again be near the top of the league in pass attempts this season.
  • Allen will face additional target competition with the arrival of first-round WR Quentin Johnston. But the 6’3, 208-pounder figures to spend most of his time outside the numbers, making him a bigger threat to Mike Williams and, especially, Josh Palmer.
  • The Chargers ranked top 7 in total WR catches, yards, and PPR points last season, so there’s plenty of production to go around.

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Mike Williams, WR LAC

12:19pm EDT 9/25/23

Mike Williams done for season with torn ACL

Chargers WR Mike Williams has been diagnosed with a torn left ACL and will miss the rest of the 2023 season, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. The timing of the injury at least gives Williams a good chance to be ready for the start of the 2024 campaign. He turns 29 in about a week and is officially signed with the Chargers for next season. But his contract currently carries a $32.5 million cap hit. Williams will need to restructure that deal to remain with the team. His absence for the rest of this season leaves behind big opportunity. Williams averaged 8.7 targets on a 21.3% share through three games. WR Josh Palmer is the better immediate bet for production with Williams out. But first-round rookie WR Quentin Johnston is the higher-upside longer-term bet. WR Keenan Allen, RB Austin Ekeler (once healthy), and TE Gerald Everett should also see a bit more volume without Williams.

View all Mike Williams Shark Bites »

Chargers WR Keenan Allen racked up 20 targets, 18 catches, and 215 yards in Sunday's win at Minnesota. He even added a 49-yard TD pass to WR Mike Williams in the third quarter. Allen claimed 42.6% of QB Justin Herbert's pass attempts, in a game Williams left late with an injury. Allen looks like a weekly must-start as long as he remains healthy. Williams tallied 7 receptions and 121 yards on 8 targets, which ranked a distant second. WR Josh Palmer posted a 4-66-1 receiving line on 7 targets. He'll be worth claiming off the waiver wire in many fantasy football leagues this week, if Williams appears to be in danger of missing the Week 4 home date with the Raiders.

View all Keenan Allen Shark Bites »

Chargers WR Keenan Allen found the end zone twice in Sunday's OT loss vs. the Titans, totaling 8 receptions on 10 targets for 111 yards. Allen's 31.1 PPR points are a strong contender for this week's No. 1 at the WR position. Teammate Mike Williams also had an effective game, leading Los Angeles with 13 targets and posting 8 catches for 83 yards. We'd anticipated a pass-happy approach for this Chargers' offense under new OC Kellen Moore in 2023, and this week was an example of why fantasy managers should be excited to start this duo in lineups weekly. Week 3's matchup vs. the Vikings should present another excellent spot for solid production for both Allen and Williams.

View all Keenan Allen Shark Bites »

Chargers QB Justin Herbert finished Week 1 with just 228 passing yards and 1 TD. A short-range toss to TE Donald Parham accounted for his only passing score. Herbert added a second score on a QB sneak, but there wasn’t much to speak of otherwise. Keenan Allen led the way with 6 grabs for 76 yards. Mike Williams — who left briefly for a concussion check — tallied just 45 yards on 4 catches. And Round 1 rookie Quentin Johnston mixed in for only 9 yards on 2 receptions. Overall, a slow start isn’t a total surprise given the presence of new OC Kellen Moore (plus a talented Miami defense). Keep expectations high for Sunday’s matchup at Tennessee.

View all Justin Herbert Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View WR Dynasty Rankings »

Keenan Allen, WR LAC
Dynasty MVP 90.5
Position Rank #68 WR
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
332
479
655
Dynasty Write-up
Hamstring trouble cost Allen a big chunk of 2022. His 10 games played marked his fewest since 2016. So, at 31, his best days are surely behind him. Still, as long as he’s tied to QB Justin Herbert, Allen should remain productive when healthy. The veteran WR is currently under contract through the 2024 season.
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