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Khalil Herbert - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsKhalil Herbert's Basic Stats

Khalil Herbert
ADP: 17.2
Bye: 7
Experience: 4
Age: 26.3
Height: 5'9"
Weight: 212
40 Time: 4.55

SPARQx (Rank): 112.90 (60%)
Burst Score (Rank): 113.60 (26%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.24 (69%)
Three Cone Drill (Rank): 6.90

Khalil Herbert's Weekly Outlook

Week 1 Projections
Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
30.2 0.18 0.5 3.4 0.02 4.6
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
60.6 0.4 1.3 9.7 0 9.5

Khalil Herbert's 2024 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#46 Running Back

83.5 Projected Points

ADP Rush Atts Rush Yds Rush TDs 100 Fum Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs
17.2 104.6 492.8 2.92 0.4 0.2 9 60.8 0.34

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsKhalil Herbert's Preseason Player Analysis

View RB Fantasy Rankings »

Bottom Line

Herbert’s OK to draft at a handcuff level, especially if he works ahead of Roschon Johnson this summer. Barring clarity in roles between them, though, he doesn’t look like a 2024 difference-maker. This is, at least, the final year on Herbert’s rookie contract. That makes him a decent cheap dynasty stash in case he lands in a better situation as an unrestricted free agent.

What We Learned Last Year

  • Herbert remained an efficient performer in his third season.
    • He tied for 15th in yards after contact per attempt among 59 RBs with 70+ carries, according to Pro Football Focus.
    • Herbert ranked 10th among that group in elusive rating.
    • And he finished 18th among 49 qualifiers in NFL Next Gen Stats’ rush yards over expected per attempt.
    • He fared even better in those categories in 2022:
      • Fourth in YAC per attempt
      • T-12th in elusive rating (but with a better number)
      • First in RYOE per attempt
  • Herbert also beat rookie teammate Roschon Johnson last season in yards per carry (4.6 to 4.3) and yards per catch (6.7 to 6.1) – as well as both rushing and receiving success rate.
  • But Herbert trailed Johnson in targets and catches.
  • He also ranked just fourth among Bears in carries from inside the 10-yard line and fifth in carries inside the 5. Herbert got just one rush from inside the 5, while watching …
    • D’Onta Foreman get six
    • QB Justin Fields get five
    • Johnson get five
    • QB Tyson Bagent get three
  • Herbert finished the year with the team lead in carries, despite playing in just 12 games. But he trailed Foreman in carries per game: 12.1 to 11.0.

What to Expect in 2024

  • Herbert’s performance through three NFL seasons would look more promising if we didn’t keep getting signals from his coaches that they don’t want to give him more work.
  • Last year found him opening the season as the top back, increase his carries per game for the second straight year and post a career high in receptions per game. But then the Bears paid up for D’Andre Swift in free agency.
  • That leaves Herbert battling Roschon Johnson for the No. 2 role. His efficiency to date makes Herbert look like the better bet for production behind Swift. But their usage patterns last year helps Johnson more.
  • Ultimately, he’s probably looking at limited touches behind Swift and alongside a significantly upgraded pass offense. And even if Swift goes down, we’re probably looking at some sort of time share.

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D'Andre Swift, RB CHI

12:14pm EDT 3/11/24

Bears make D'Andre Swift new lead back

The Bears have agreed to a three-year deal with RB D'Andre Swift, according to multiple reports. Chicago will pay Swift $24 million over that span, with $15.3 million of that guaranteed. That should position Swift as the backfield leader for at least the next two seasons -- assuming he stays healthy, of course. Swift opened his lone Philly season barely playing behind Kenneth Gainwell but then exploded when Gainwell missed Week 2. Swift worked as the lead back the rest of the way, averaging a career-high 41.3 carries per game but a career-low 2.4 receptions per contest. He should immediately step ahead of Bears incumbents Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson as both a runner and receiver. If the QB shift to Caleb Williams comes to fruition, then Swift would gain target upside over what Philly presented (or what Justin Fields would present). Swift has been a solid-to-good value in early best ball drafting. Expect his ADP to rise now that he has found starter money on the market. Swift's RB31 position in Underdog Fantasy to date gives him plenty of room to move up the board and still be worth targeting. Check our RB rankings to see where he lands.

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Bears RB Khalil Herbert (back, personal) is active for today’s game vs. the Packers. He was added to the injury report on Thursday and then sidelined on Friday – although it’s unclear if the back or personal issue kept him out. RB D’Onta Foreman is a healthy scratch again today, suggesting little concern about Herbert’s status.

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Bears RB Khalil Herbert (back, personal) is expected to play vs. the Packers today, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. Herbert was added to the injury report on Thursday and then sidelined on Friday, so he comes with elevated risk in Week 18 fantasy lineups. We'll see whether RB D'Onta Foreman is active for this one after missing the last two games.

View all Khalil Herbert Shark Bites »

Bears RB Khalil Herbert (back, personal) is questionable for this weekend’s game vs. the Packers. He was added to the injury report on Thursday and then sidelined on Friday. Herbert’s absence would presumably leave Chicago’s backfield to Roschon Johnson and D’Onta Foreman, who has not played the past two weeks.

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Dynasty Overview View RB Dynasty Rankings »

Khalil Herbert, RB CHI
Dynasty MVP 46.9
Position Rank #105 RB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
157
246
391
Dynasty Write-up
Despite Chicago adding D’Onta Foreman and Roschon Johnson last spring, Herbert led the team in rushes (132) and yards per attempt (4.6). Herbert also missed a chunk of the season with an ankle injury. We like the talent here, but Herbert's outlook took a hit following the addition of D'Andre Swift. Herbert will also need to earn the trust of a new OC (Shane Waldron).
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