Khalil Herbert - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats

RB CHI

#115 Running Back

7 Projected Points

ADP: Not Available

Bye: 10

Experience: 0 Yr(s)

Age: 23

Height: 5'9"

Weight: 204

40 Time: 4.50

Weekly Outlook

Low Floor

0.9

DS Projection

1.5

Consensus

38 other sites
2

High Ceiling

2.6

Rest of
Season

4.8

Week 14 Projections

Rush Yds	Rush TDs	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TDs	Fantasy Pts
11	0	0.5	3.5	0	1.5

Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rush Yds	Rush TDs	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TDs	Fantasy Pts
22	0.3	1	8	0	4.8

Week 8
Despite leaving the game against the 49ers for a short time, Herbert saw 23 carries for 72 yards. He also caught both of his targets for -4 yards.

Going forward, one thing is abundantly clear: Herbert is the primary option for the Bears as long as David Montgomery is out. There was some expectation that Damien Williams would cut into Herbert's usage, but a knee injury in the first quarter quickly put that thought to bed. Williams did not return to this contest.

Over the last 4 contests, Herbert has 18 or more carries. The best part is these carries are not game script dependent. It is clear that despite the Bears being up, down or tied, he will see volume.

At a position where volume is king, Herbert is looking like a locked and loaded starter for the vast majority of fantasy teams until Montgomery returns.

Week 7
Damien Williams was activated from the COVID list on Saturday and suited up vs. the Bucs on Sunday. But he ended up playing just 17% of Chicago’s offensive snaps.

Herbert operated as the workhorse, playing 77% of the snaps, handling 18 of 21 RB carries and garnering 5 targets (15.6% share). And the rookie was excellent against a tough Bucs run defense, ripping off 100 yards on 18 carries. He became just the 2nd RB to run for 100+ yards vs. Tampa since the start of the 2020 campaign. Herbert also caught all 5 of his targets for 33 yards. He finished 8th among RBs in PPR points and 13th in non-PPR on the week.

Herbert has been excellent with David Montgomery sidelined the past 3 weeks, averaging 5.0 yards per carry and ranking 4th among 42 qualifiers in Pro Football Focus’ rushing grades.

Montgomery is eligible to come off IR this week but seems unlikely to be ready for Sunday’s game vs. the 49ers. We might see Damien Williams play a bigger role after getting in a full week of practice -- but Herbert has played too well to relinquish the lead job. Consider him a solid RB2 for Week 8, assuming Montgomery remains out

Week 6
With Damien Williams out for this game due to COVID, it was Herbert’s opportunity to shine. He saw all 19 of the RB carries, gaining 97 yards and scoring a TD. It could have been a 2-TD game if not for an offensive line penalty.

This rushing performance followed up the Week 6 contest against the Raiders where Herbert gained 75 yards on 18 carries.

The biggest eye opener was the 3 targets Herbert saw in the passing game, with 2 of the targets coming on designed looks. He produced 15 yards on his 2 catches.

Going forward, this backfield is going to be interesting. Both Damien Willaims and Herbert have looked good in their opportunities. This week Chicago takes on the Buccaneers, who have one of the toughest rush defenses in the league. Williams is likely the RB who will see the majority of the passing down work, but Herbert might be too good to keep off the field at this point.

Week 5
Herbert stood out in this game against the Raiders. He carried it a team high 18 times for 75 yards. In terms of opportunities, he only trailed Damien Williams by 1.

This was an impressive showing for a player who saw just 3 carries the week prior and hadn’t been active the first 3 weeks of the season. The question becomes how much work the rookie will see in games where the Bears are in neutral or negative game scripts. While he saw work through all 4 quarters, his volume seemed to be more rampant in the 2nd half. Williams was banged up heading into this one, and Chicago was leading most of the way.

Going forward, Herbert is an interesting option to stash. He has the talent to gain a primary role but is not someone who will catch passes. As we have learned at RB, passing down work is critical to ceiling performances and reliability week to week. The Bears upcoming schedule is not exactly conducive to massive outputs. Tread lightly with Herbert.

Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

The Bears drafted Herbert in Round 6.
Herbert took the backfield lead as a 2017 sophomore at Kansas but then ceded that control to true freshman Pooka Williams in 2018. Williams is a 5’9, 170-pound back who just went undrafted as an early entrant.
Herbert finished his college career with a big 5th year at Virginia Tech: 154 carries, 1,182 yards, 8 TDs, 7.7 yards per carry, plus 10-179-1 receiving. (See some of how he got there in our Dynasty Prospect Scouting Report.)
Herbert ranked 6th among 238 draft-eligible RBs in Pro Football Focus rushing grade in 2020. He also ranked 6th in yards after contact per attempt.
Herbert delivered an elite 126.3 elusive rating. For some context, Najee Harris posted a 100.5 in 2020; Travis Etienne a 100.6.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Herbert will need to fight to get as high as 3rd on Chicago’s RB depth chart this season, so he won’t be on the redraft radar in most cases. But the only players clearly ahead of him to begin with are starter David Montgomery; Tarik Cohen, who’s coming off an ACL tear; and 29-year-old Damien Williams, who opted out of 2020, got released by the Chiefs and signed a 1-year contract with just $125,000 guaranteed. Herbert gets a friendlier path than most 6th-round RBs.

He’s a dynasty stash and worth keeping an eye on in case of backfield injuries in Chicago.

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

The Bears picked up RB Khalil Herbert in Round 6 of the 2021 NFL Draft. After an underwhelming stint at Kansas, Herbert transferred to Virginia Tech and enjoyed a breakout 2020. As a 22-year-old senior, the Florida native tallied 154-1,182-8 in 11 games. His 7.68 YPC ranked 4th nationally. On film, Herbert excelled both after contact and as a contact-dodger. He also exits college with only 1 career fumble (507 career touches). On the negative side, Herbert is still largely unproven in the receiving game. He at least managed 17.9 YPC on his 10 receptions last season. In Chicago, he could be fighting Damien Williams for a 2021 roster spot.

View all Khalil Herbert Shark Bites »

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