Matthew Stafford - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Stafford finished just 18th among QBs in fantasy points per game last year. He got hot down the stretch, though, ranking sixth from Week 12 to 17.

He’s capable of QB1 production in 2024 if he gets healthy seasons from WRs Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. But the fantasy ceiling isn’t exciting because Stafford offers next to nothing as a runner.

He’s also one of the biggest injury risks at the position. That leaves Stafford well into QB2 territory in the rankings.

What We Learned Last Year

• Stafford finished 15th among QBs in total fantasy points and 18th in points per game.
• He injured his right thumb late in the first half of Week 8 and missed Week 9. Stafford also sat out a meaningless regular-season finale.
• Stafford finished as a top-10 QB in four of his final six games. But he had no other top-10 finishes and ranked outside the top 14 in his first 11 outings.
• He ranked just 23rd among QBs in fantasy points per game through Week 11. He ranked sixth from Week 12 to 17.
  • Stafford’s passing yards per game climbed from 251.1 through Week 11 to 284.2 from Week 12 to 17.
  • But the biggest change came in the TD department. He averaged just 1.0 TDs per game on a 2.9% TD rate through Week 11. He then averaged 2.5 TDs per game on a 7.1% TD rate from Week 12 to 17.
• Stafford notably had a healthy Cooper Kupp for each of those final six games. Kupp missed all or most of five of Stafford’s first 11 outings.
• Stafford set a career high and ranked seventh among 33 qualifying QBs in Pro Football Focus passing grade.
  • He went from an 80.2 passing grade from Week 1 to 11 to an 80.6 from Week 12 to 16.
• Stafford ranked just 29th among QBs in fantasy points per game in an injury-wrecked 2022 season. He ranked 11th in his Rams debut in 2021.

What to Expect in 2024

• Stafford is back for his fourth season with HC Sean McVay. Mike LaFleur returns for his second season as Rams OC.
• Last year’s top 4 WRs – Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, Demarcus Robinson, and Tutu Atwell – are all back.
• TE Tyler Higbee is unlikely to be ready for the start of the season after tearing his right ACL and MCL in the Wild Card loss to the Lions.
• The Rams added TE Colby Parkinson on a three-year, $22.5 million free-agent deal. He was a part-time player across four seasons with the Seahawks but posted an above-average 7.9 yards per target.
• The 2023 Rams ranked:
  • 20th in Pro Football Focus pass-blocking grades
  • 21st in ESPN’s pass block win rate
• They signed G Jonah Jackson to a three-year, $51 million deal in free agency and will hope to get healthier seasons from LT Alaric Jackson, RT Rob Havenstein, and G Kevin Dotson, who all missed time last year.
• Stafford is one of the biggest injury risks at QB.
  • Our Injury Predictor gives him an 80.3% chance of injury this season, the second-highest among QBs behind only Justin Fields.
  • Stafford is projected to miss 2.7 games – third most among QBs.
• Stafford will add very little fantasy value with his legs. He’s averaged just 2.9 rushing yards per game across his three seasons with the Rams and scored only one rushing TD.