Bottom Line

Stafford ranked just 22nd among QBs in fantasy points per game through eight healthy games last year. His season ended with a spinal cord contusion.

He’s back as the Rams’ starter this season and is just two years removed from a QB5 finish in his Rams debut.

But that Rams team had a stronger pass-catching corps and offensive line.

We’re not betting on the 35-year-old Stafford bouncing back into fantasy’s top-10 QBs.

Draft him only as a QB2.

What We Learned Last Year

• Stafford missed eight games and about half of a ninth. He missed Week 10 in the concussion protocol and then was knocked out of Week 11 with another concussion plus a spinal cord contusion.
• In his eight healthy games, Stafford averaged:
  • 241 passing yards
  • 1.0 passing TDs
• Stafford ranked just 22nd among QBs in fantasy points per game over that stretch.
• He finished as a top-12 fantasy QB in just one of those eight games. He ranked outside the top 20 in four of them.
• Stafford completed a career-high 68.0% of his passes last season.
• But his 6.9 yards per pass attempt was his worst mark since 2018 and the fifth-worst mark among his 14 NFL seasons. Stafford averaged 8.1 yards per pass in his first season with the Rams.
• Stafford’s average pass traveled just 6.7 yards past the line of scrimmage last year. That ranked 30th among 33 qualifiers and was way down from his 8.5-yard mark in 2021.
• The offensive line was part of the problem. The 2022 Rams ranked:
  • 24th in Pro Football Focus’ pass-blocking grades
  • 13th in ESPN’s Pass Block Win Rate
• Stafford’s 2.58-second average time to throw was 6th quickest among 31 qualifiers. (He had a 2.66-second average time to throw in 2021.)

What to Expect in 2023:

• Stafford avoided surgery on that spinal cord contusion. And, despite speculation that he’d be forced to retire, he was able to participate in offseason workouts. It doesn’t look like that injury will be an issue in 2023.
• Durability remains a concern here, though. There was the spinal cord injury, two concussions, and elbow tendonitis just last season. His career injury history is lengthy.
• Stafford turned 35 in February.
• The Rams return WRs Cooper Kupp, Van Jefferson, Tutu Atwell, and Ben Skowronek, plus TE Tyler Higbee. They traded WR Allen Robinson, who saw 52 targets in 10 games last year, to the Steelers. Additions to the pass-catching corps: Fifth-round rookie WR Puka Nacua, WR Demarcus Robinson, fifth-round rookie TE Davis Allen, and TE Hunter Long. It’s an underwhelming pass-catching corps.
• The offensive line should be better this season. Among this year’s projected starters, RT Joe Noteboom missed 11 games last year, C Brian Allen 10, and RG Logan Bruss all 17. The Rams spent the 36th pick of this spring’s draft on Steve Avila, who’s the favorite for the starting LG job.