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Stafford still has the weapons and play-caller to beat his QB14 ADP, but the margin looks thin. He needs another healthy season, consistent availability from Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, and strong TD efficiency to approach last year’s ceiling. He’s fine at cost as a matchup-based fantasy starter, just don’t treat him like an every-week QB1.
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Stafford racked up 4,707 yards, 46 TDs, and only 8 INTs in 17 games. His yardage and TD totals both led the league, and the TD mark set a new career high.
Even with just 1 rushing yard and 0 rushing TDs, Stafford finished second in both total fantasy points and points per game, with 10 weeks of QB12 or better and seven top-5 finishes.
Stafford finished worse than QB18 only twice.
Stafford carried the Rams' offense, finishing third league-wide in attempts (597).
Stafford was especially dangerous near the goal line, pacing the league with 104 attempts inside the 20-yard line and 58 inside the 10-yard line. That volume turned into 33 red-zone TDs. Only one other QB, Jared Goff, reached 33 total passing TDs.
Among 29 QBs with 300+ dropbacks, Stafford ranked:
He also led the same sample in Pro Football Focus passing grade (91.7).
This unit loved to attack downfield, with Stafford leading the league in average depth of target (9.8 yards) and total deep attempts (106). He finished fourth in deep passing rate (14.8% of his throws traveling 20+ yards downfield).
Puka Nacua and Davante Adams combined for a huge 55.1% target share, even with Adams missing three games (hamstring) and Nacua missing one (ankle).
The O-line stayed healthy, with four of five starters playing at least 74% of the snaps. That helped the Rams allow the second-lowest pressure rate (27.4%) and rank fifth in ESPN’s pass-block win rate.
Stafford's fantasy points per game tallies have seesawed since he arrived in Los Angeles:
Last year’s mark was the second highest of his 17-year career.
Stafford entered last season as a clear injury risk after suffering an aggravated disk in his back ahead of training camp, but he still played all 17 games.
It was the third straight season in which Stafford played at least 15 games and the second straight in which he lost no time to injury. Stafford’s only 2024 absence came in a Week 18 game he sat out because the team rested starters.
Stafford returns the top 10 target earners from 2025, most critically Nacua and Adams.
Nacua ranks second among WRs in yardage over the past three seasons, and Adams sits 14th. Together, they look like one of the league's top WR duos after combining for 12.2 catches, 163.4 yards, and 1.6 TDs per game in 2025.
The rest of the WR corps remains unproven, though.
Jordan Whittington brings the size at 6'1, 202 pounds, but posted a lowly 18-171 receiving line in his second season. Konata Mumpfield tallied 10-92-1 as a Round 7 rookie, while incoming Round 6 pick CJ Daniels was a six-year college player who brings middling athleticism (6.07 Relative Athletic Score).
So, there’s no clear No. 3 WR for the Rams. There's also evidence Stafford can survive a missing top target. He finished QB4 in the lone game without Nacua and QB3, QB16, and QB2 in games without Adams last year.
The Rams’ TE depth could also help overcome any issues at WR.
Colby Parkinson posted a 43-408-8 line in 2025 despite the Rams adding Round 2 TE Terrance Ferguson. Ferguson flashed as a downfield threat with 20.8 yards per catch on 12 receptions, but the Rams still made another big TE investment by taking Max Klare in Round 2 this year.
Klare broke out in his third season at Purdue, then finished third on Ohio State in catches and yards after transferring last year. Our prospect guru Shane Hallam compares Klare to Dallas TE Jake Ferguson.
Stafford also returns veteran TE Tyler Higbee. He’ll likely see a diminished role in his age-33 season after re-signing for just $3 million per year over the next two years. But the veteran TE supplies some security for Stafford when on the field.
The Rams’ O-line remains a strength, with all five starters back from a productive 2025 unit.
Because Stafford adds nothing as a runner, he'll need another highly efficient passing season to crack the top five again.
His TD rate is the obvious regression point. Stafford spiked to a career-high 7.7% last season after topping out at 6.8% in 2021, his first year in L.A. Including 2025, he’s averaged a more moderate 4.6% TD rate as a Ram.
Our current projections have him for a 5.8% TD rate, still above his career average of 4.8.
Stafford’s outlook leans heavily on Nacua and Adams staying healthy.
Adams has missed time with hamstring injuries in back-to-back seasons. Nacua missed only one game last season with an ankle injury but sat out five games with a PCL sprain in 2024.
The WR depth behind them remains unproven with Jordan Whittington, Konata Mumpfield, and CJ Daniels battling for the No. 3 role.
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Surprise: Rams Use 13th Overall Pick on Ty Simpson
Surprise: Rams Use 13th Overall Pick on Ty Simpson
The Rams selected Alabama QB Ty Simpson with the 13th pick of the 2026 NFL Draft. That lands Simpson in one of the league’s best developmental spots, with Sean McVay calling the offense and Matthew Stafford still in place. The concern: Simpson's resume includes only 15 college starts. Recent first-round QBs with 15 or fewer starts include Anthony Richardson, Mitchell Trubisky, and Dwayne Haskins. That’s not exactly a comforting list. Still, Simpson flashed enough NFL-caliber traits to earn Round 1 capital. He threw for 3,567 yards, 28 TDs, and 5 INTs in his lone season as Alabama’s starter. Among 15 Combine-invited QBs, he ranked fourth in Big Time Throw rate, eighth in average depth of target, and 10th in adjusted completion rate.
Matt Stafford Wins MVP, Will Be Back For 2026 Season
Matt Stafford Wins MVP, Will Be Back For 2026 Season
Rams QB Matt Stafford edged Patriots QB Drake Maye 366 points to 361 for 2025 MVP. Stafford announced at the end of his acceptance speech that he'll be back for the 2026 campaign. His career seemed to be on the ropes due to back trouble this past summer. But he was ready for Week 1 and turned in one of the best seasons of his career.
Matt Stafford's Finger Feels "Great"
Matt Stafford's Finger Feels "Great"
Rams QB Matt Stafford (right finger) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice. He told reporters that the finger feels "great" and that he doesn't plan to wear any protection on it for Sunday's game vs. the Bears. Stafford looked a bit off after hurting the finger in last week's win over the Panthers, but it doesn't look like it'll be an issue this weekend.
X-Rays Clean On Matt Stafford's Finger
X-Rays Clean On Matt Stafford's Finger
X-rays on the right finger injury Rams QB Matt Stafford suffered in Saturday's win over the Panthers came back clean, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. Stafford banged the finger on edge rusher D.J. Wonnum late in the first half. "It wasn't pleasant. It wasn't great," Stafford said afterward. "We'll see what it is. I was obviously able to finish the game and throw it decent. Once the ball's snapped, the adrenaline's pretty good, so we'll hopefully just keep it going." Stafford struggled during the third quarter but was able to engineer a pair of TD drives in the fourth. We'll keep a close eye on his status leading up to next weekend's Divisional Round game vs. the Seahawks or Bears.
Rams-Seahawks Weather Update
Rams-Seahawks Weather Update
The forecast for tonight's Rams-Seahawks game calls for a 40-50% chance of rain with winds around 20 mph and gusts up over 30. The rain shouldn't be impactful, but the wind will be. Per Rotogrinders' Kevin Roth, we could see gusts of 30-40 mph in the first half, tapering off to around 30 mph in the second. We'd shy away from using either kicker in this game. We're not adjusting projections for the offenses but could certainly see both teams lean a bit more toward the run. This was already a tough spot for QB Matt Stafford, on the road against a tough defense and without WR Davante Adams.
See whether Matthew Stafford is available in your leagues.
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