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Matthew Stafford - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Matthew Stafford
LAR

QB LAR

#11 Quarterback

381 Projected Points

ADP: 8.1
Bye: 11
Experience: 12 Yr(s)
Age: 33
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 232
40 Time: 4.81

2021 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#11 Quarterback

381 Projected Points

ADP Comp/Att P Yds P TD INT Att R Yds Fum
8.1 410/612 4957 32 12 117

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

3d Projection

Med Floor

346.7

DS Projection

381

Consensus

38 other sites
320.8

High Ceiling

445.8

Ceiling Likelihood

Medium
How likely they will reach their ceiling projection

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • The Rams swung a deal for Stafford in January, sending QB Jared Goff, a 2021 3rd-round pick and 1st-rounders in 2022 and 2023 to the Lions.
  • Stafford joins a Rams offense that is heading into year 5 under HC Sean McVay. In McVay’s first 4 seasons, the Rams ranked …
    • 19th, 4th, 8th and 3rd in offensive snaps
    • 1st, 2nd, 11th and 22nd in points
    • 10th, 2nd, 7th and 11th in total yards
    • 6th, 2nd, 16th and 10th in Football Outsiders’ offensive DVOA
    • 10th, 5th, 4th and 13th in passing yards
    • 6th, 8th, 19th and 26th in passing TDs
  • Jared Goff’s fantasy finishes those seasons: 12th, 6th, 12th, 16th
  • Stafford looks like an upgrade over Goff.
    • Stafford has earned a higher Pro Football Focus passing grade than Goff in 2 straight seasons and 3 of the last 4.
    • Goff beat Stafford in Football Outsiders’ DVOA in 2017 and 2018 -- but Stafford has finished significantly higher the past 2 years.
  • Stafford is more willing and able to throw downfield than Goff. Last year, 12.7% of Stafford’s throws traveled 20+ yards downfield vs. just 7.8% for Goff. And Stafford earned a 93.0 PFF passing grade on those throws vs. Goff’s 61.7.
  • Stafford was also better on play-action passes last year, averaging 8.9 yards per attempt and earning an 81.3 PFF grade vs. Goff’s 7.9 yards per attempt and 77.6 PFF grade. That’s especially noteworthy because the Rams ranked 2nd in play-action passes last year.
  • The Rams return 3 of last year’s top 5 target getters in WR Robert Woods, WR Cooper Kupp and TE Tyler Higbee.
  • They lost WR Josh Reynolds and TE Gerald Everett.
  • The Rams were clearly looking to add more speed at WR, signing free-agent DeSean Jackson and drafting Tutu Atwell. They also return 2020 2nd-rounder Van Jefferson. Overall, the team could very well get better play from its #3 WR spot this year than last.
  • L.A. only added 4th-round rookie Jacob Harris at TE. But more Higbee is probably a good thing considering he’s finished 3rd and 7th at his position in yards per route run the last 2 years.
  • The offensive line is the biggest concern for Stafford. The Rams are expected to have 4 of the same 5 starters from last year’s unit that ranked 29th in Pro Football Focus’ pass-blocking grades. The good news is that the Rams finished 2nd in adjusted sack rate last year -- largely a testament to McVay’s scheme.
  • Stafford missed 8 games in 2019 with fractured bones in his back. He played all 16 last year but dealt with injuries to his right thumb, left elbow, ribs, knee and ankle. He had what was reportedly “minor” and “elective” surgery on the thumb in March but is expected to be back to 100% for training camp.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Let’s not make this complicated. The eye test and the numbers say Stafford should be an upgrade over Jared Goff for the Rams. And Goff finished as a top 12 fantasy QB in 3 of the last 4 seasons.

Barring injury or serious decline, Stafford is a good bet for lower-end QB1 numbers in 2021. His lack of rushing production will make it tough for him to climb into the top half of QB1 territory.

 

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Rams QB Matt Stafford had surgery on his right (throwing) thumb in March, The Athletic reports. The procedure was "minor" and "elective," according to a source. Stafford revealed back in February that he played through a partially torn UCL in that thumb last season -- in addition to elbow, rib, knee and ankle injuries. The 33-year-old is expected to be available for the offseason program and at 100% by training camp. He's played all 16 games in 9 of the last 10 seasons.

View all Matthew Stafford Shark Bites »

New Rams QB Matt Stafford didn't miss a game in 2020, but he revealed on Thursday that he battled through a bunch of injuries. “I had the partially torn UCL in my right thumb, I tore my UCL on my left elbow on the second to last play of the Houston game that nobody knew about, trying to stiff arm a guy. That's why I started wearing a sleeve on my left arm because I had all sorts of tape underneath it, just to hold it in place," Stafford said. “I broke my cartilage on my eighth rib in Green Bay. I also tore something (in the back of) my left knee. And then I had a subtalar, right ankle sprain.” Despite all that, Stafford topped 4,000 passing yards for the 8th time, while tossing 26 TDs to 10 INTs. It's unclear if he'll have any procedures to address those injuries, but we'll keep you updated. Stafford turned 33 earlier this month.

View all Matthew Stafford Shark Bites »

The Lions have agreed to trade QB Matthew Stafford to the Rams for QB Jared Goff plus 3 draft picks. NFL Network's Tom Pelissero reports that the Rams will send a 3rd-round pick in this year's draft, plus 1st-rounders in 2022 and 2023 as part of the trade. That's quite a haul for Detroit in moving a 33-year-old QB who had requested a trade. L.A.'s desire to unload Goff's big contract likely increased the package. Once the trade becomes official (at the start of the new league year), Stafford will land in an offense that has ranked top-11 in yardage each of the 4 years under HC Sean McVay. The Rams also ranked 1st, 2nd and 11th in scoring before sinking to 22nd this past season. Goff joins a Lions team that welcomes a new coaching staff for 2021, led by run-loving HC Dan Campbell. It's a solid landing for Stafford that should preserve his fantasy value over the next couple of seasons. Goff figures to land low in QB2 territory in our 2021 fantasy football rankings. The change from Goff to Stafford should enhance the fantasy outlooks for Rams pass-catchers.

View all Matthew Stafford Shark Bites »

The Lions and QB Matthew Stafford have agreed to part ways this offseason, according to multiple reports. That means the team will begin exploring trade options. NFL Network's Tom Pelissero reports that a move would likely happen before the 5th day of the new league year (which begins March 17), because Stafford will be due a $10 million bonus that day. The veteran QB has 2 years left on his contract at $43 million and is coming off a solid season that found him finishing 15th among QBs in total fantasy points. Expect Detroit to try to address the position in the 1st round of the NFL Draft. The Lions pick 7th. The uncertainty could create a "buy" window in dynasty leagues, especially considering that older QBs tend to run cheap. Stafford figures to be most attractive to a contending team seeking a QB upgrade. Chase Daniel is the only other Lions QB whose contract runs through 2021.

View all Matthew Stafford Shark Bites »

Lions QB Matt Stafford (rib, thumb) is active for today’s game vs. the Vikings. All sorts of banged up, Stafford is at risk of exiting this game early. But whatever he can give his team is good news for RB D’Andre Swift, WR, Marvin Jones and TE T.J. Hockenson.

View all Matthew Stafford Shark Bites »

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