Matthew Stafford Fantasy Overview

2025 Role & Results

Top-Tier QB1 Numbers

Stafford racked up 4,707 yards, 46 TDs, and only 8 INTs in 17 games. His yardage and TD totals both led the league, and the TD mark set a new career high.

Even with just 1 rushing yard and 0 rushing TDs, Stafford finished second in both total fantasy points and points per game, with 10 weeks of QB12 or better and seven top-5 finishes.

Stafford finished worse than QB18 only twice.

Volume Was an Asset

Stafford carried the Rams' offense, finishing third league-wide in attempts (597).

Stafford was especially dangerous near the goal line, pacing the league with 104 attempts inside the 20-yard line and 58 inside the 10-yard line. That volume turned into 33 red-zone TDs. Only one other QB, Jared Goff, reached 33 total passing TDs.

High TD Rate, YPA

Among 29 QBs with 300+ dropbacks, Stafford ranked:

• First in TD rate (7.7%)
• Tied for fifth in yards per attempt (7.9)
• 24th in adjusted completion rate (72.3%)

He also led the same sample in Pro Football Focus passing grade (91.7).

An Ideal Environment

This unit loved to attack downfield, with Stafford leading the league in average depth of target (9.8 yards) and total deep attempts (106). He finished fourth in deep passing rate (14.8% of his throws traveling 20+ yards downfield).

Puka Nacua and Davante Adams combined for a huge 55.1% target share, even with Adams missing three games (hamstring) and Nacua missing one (ankle).

The O-line stayed healthy, with four of five starters playing at least 74% of the snaps. That helped the Rams allow the second-lowest pressure rate (27.4%) and rank fifth in ESPN’s pass-block win rate.

Up and Down Trend Continues

Stafford's fantasy points per game tallies have seesawed since he arrived in Los Angeles:

• 2021: 24.3 (QB9)
• 2022: 16.8 (QB25)
• 2023: 20.1 (QB17)
• 2024: 17.0 (QB29)
• 2025: 24.7 (QB2)

Last year’s mark was the second highest of his 17-year career.

A Surprisingly Healthy Season

Stafford entered last season as a clear injury risk after suffering an aggravated disk in his back ahead of training camp, but he still played all 17 games.

It was the third straight season in which Stafford played at least 15 games and the second straight in which he lost no time to injury. Stafford’s only 2024 absence came in a Week 18 game he sat out because the team rested starters.

2026 Opportunity & Projection

No Major Changes to the Supporting Cast

Stafford returns the top 10 target earners from 2025, most critically Nacua and Adams.

Nacua ranks second among WRs in yardage over the past three seasons, and Adams sits 14th. Together, they look like one of the league's top WR duos after combining for 12.2 catches, 163.4 yards, and 1.6 TDs per game in 2025.

The rest of the WR corps remains unproven, though.

Jordan Whittington brings the size at 6'1, 202 pounds, but posted a lowly 18-171 receiving line in his second season. Konata Mumpfield tallied 10-92-1 as a Round 7 rookie, while incoming Round 6 pick CJ Daniels was a six-year college player who brings middling athleticism (6.07 Relative Athletic Score).

So, there’s no clear No. 3 WR for the Rams. There's also evidence Stafford can survive a missing top target. He finished QB4 in the lone game without Nacua and QB3, QB16, and QB2 in games without Adams last year.

The Rams’ TE depth could also help overcome any issues at WR.

Colby Parkinson posted a 43-408-8 line in 2025 despite the Rams adding Round 2 TE Terrance Ferguson. Ferguson flashed as a downfield threat with 20.8 yards per catch on 12 receptions, but the Rams still made another big TE investment by taking Max Klare in Round 2 this year.

Klare broke out in his third season at Purdue, then finished third on Ohio State in catches and yards after transferring last year. Our prospect guru Shane Hallam compares Klare to Dallas TE Jake Ferguson.

Stafford also returns veteran TE Tyler Higbee. He’ll likely see a diminished role in his age-33 season after re-signing for just $3 million per year over the next two years. But the veteran TE supplies some security for Stafford when on the field.

The Rams’ O-line remains a strength, with all five starters back from a productive 2025 unit.

Another Ceiling Outcome is Unlikely

Because Stafford adds nothing as a runner, he'll need another highly efficient passing season to crack the top five again.

His TD rate is the obvious regression point. Stafford spiked to a career-high 7.7% last season after topping out at 6.8% in 2021, his first year in L.A. Including 2025, he’s averaged a more moderate 4.6% TD rate as a Ram.

Our current projections have him for a 5.8% TD rate, still above his career average of 4.8.

Risk Factors

Stafford’s outlook leans heavily on Nacua and Adams staying healthy.

Adams has missed time with hamstring injuries in back-to-back seasons. Nacua missed only one game last season with an ankle injury but sat out five games with a PCL sprain in 2024.

The WR depth behind them remains unproven with Jordan Whittington, Konata Mumpfield, and CJ Daniels battling for the No. 3 role.