Matthew Stafford - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats

QB LAR

#11 Quarterback

381 Projected Points

ADP: Not Available

Bye: 11

Experience: 12 Yr(s)

Age: 33

Height: 6'3"

Weight: 232

40 Time: 4.81

Weekly Outlook

High Floor

17.7

DS Projection

20.8

Consensus

38 other sites
22

Low Ceiling

Rest of
Season

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Week 21 Projections

Yds	TDs	INT	Rush Yds	Fantasy Pts
261.8	2	0.8	5	20.8

Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Week 14
Stafford was phenomenal on Monday night. He completed 23 of 30 attempts for 287 yards and 3 TDs. This was his 3rd straight game with 287 passing yards or more and 3 TDs. In fact, he has thrown 3 or more TDs in 6 of the Rams last 8 games.

He was making some incredible throws and seems to be making a connection with new teammate Odell Beckham Jr.

Going forward, it's hard to doubt Stafford, who seems to have fixed whatever wasn’t working in their games against the Titans and 49ers.

Week 12
Thanks to early negative game script, Stafford had his best game in weeks. He completed 21 of 38 passes for 302 yards and 3 TDs. He did throw an INT in the process.

This was his 6th start with 3 or more passing TDs and the 5th time he eclipsed 300 passing yards.

Going forward, things should be fine for Stafford from a fantasy perspective. The pieces around him have changed throughout the season but Stafford has produced outside of 2 starts. Those 2 starts weren’t total train wrecks either.

There is little reason to pivot off Stafford at this point.

Week 10
Stafford’s 3rd pass attempt in Monday night’s game vs. the 49ers was an ill-advised heave to WR Odell Beckham that was picked off. The ‘Niners then went on a long scoring drive. And the Rams offense never got on track from there.

Stafford finished 26 of 41 (63.4%) for 243 yards (5.9 YPA), 1 TD and 2 INTs. The 2nd INT was a flat-out drop by TE Tyler Higbee that wound up in S Jimmie Ward’s hands. Stafford’s only score went to Higbee from 10 yards out in the 2nd quarter.

The Stafford-to-Kupp connection was the only thing working in this one. Beckham was a non-factor after joining the team just a few days earlier. Higbee and WR Van Jefferson both had costly drops. The Rams had a week-high 6 drops in total.

WR Robert Woods’ absence was certainly a factor here. But it was an all-around dud from the offense -- for the 2nd straight week.

Stafford and the Rams get a well-timed Week 11 bye to figure things out. We’d expect them to rebound the rest of the way but will continue to monitor the offense sans Woods.

Week 9
It was a rough night for Stafford against a Titans front that seemed to be able to get pressure on every snap. He threw an INT out of his own end zone to start the 2nd quarter. He then threw another INT on his next snap; this one returned for a TD. Stafford also got sacked 4 times in the 1st half (and 1 more in the 2nd half).

On top of the INTs and the sacks, Stafford suffered a sprained ankle halfway through the 4th quarter. He finished the night 31 of 48 for 294 yards, 1 TD, and 2 INTs. He added 2 rushes for 13 yards on the ground.

Sean McVay said he believed Stafford would be able to play this week, but we will need to keep an eye on this ankle issue. Stafford has played with injuries throughout his career so he should be able to suit up and bounce back with this high-powered offense. He is ranked as our QB6 this week against San Francisco. He is our QB9 the rest of the way.

Week 8
Stafford was seeing very little pressure against a Texans defense that rarely blitzes, which allowed him to pick apart the secondary on his way to another big performance. He could’ve had a bigger day, but he overthrew Cooper Kupp for an easy TD that led to the team kicking a FG. As the game was well out of hand in the 3rd quarter, the team stopped throwing aggressively, and in the 4th quarter, John Wolford came in for mop-up duty.

Stafford will continue to be an autostart QB1 each week, though his performances have been uneven for fantasy. Even though he averaged over 300 yards in each of his prior 4 games, he’s thrown between 1 and 4 TDs in each of those games. With the Rams having a defense that often holds opponents down, the play calling is often not very aggressive late in games, which helps to explain the lack of consistent upside, but few QBs have the excellent weekly floor he has shown.

Week 7
In Stafford’s first game vs. his former team, he didn’t disappoint, cruising to 334 passing yards and 3 TDs. Stafford was connecting on all levels of the field, including the deep passing game. Stafford completed 3 passes of 20+ yards and all 3 went to his partner in crime Cooper Kupp. The surprising game flow of this contest allowed us to see the upside of Stafford as he attempted 40+ passes for only the second time in 2021.
This week the Rams take on the 1-6 Texans. This game could get ugly early, but with the news that Tyrod Taylor has a chance to return as the starter could open the door for better game flow. Overall, Stafford has moved into auto-start category as he is top 3 in the NFL in yards, yards per attempt and TDs on the season.

Week 6
Stafford owned the Giants en route to a Week 6 blowout. He finished the game with 251 yards and 4 TDs on 22-of-28 passing. He also threw an INT, but he was otherwise firing on all cylinders. He threw a pair of TDs to WR Cooper Kupp with the other 2 going to WR Robert Woods and RB Darrell Henderson.
Stafford had over 200 yards and 3 TDs by halftime in what turned out to be a laugher in the Meadowlands. He is currently on pace for career highs in passing yards, passing TDs and passer rating through 6 games. Expect more monster output as he leads the high-flying Rams offense this weekend against his former Lions teammates.

Week 5
It is very rare that you can say your QB threw for 365 yards and disappointed for fantasy. Stafford did just that, finishing as the QB17 on the week. Stafford’s numbers on paper outside of TDs are still elite as his 365 yards on 9.9 yards per attempt were inside the top 10 on the week. Stafford’s day could have been a lot better as Van Jefferson dropped a potential TD which later in the drive turned into a Stafford INT.
Better days are ahead for Stafford as he continues to display elite deep passing ability. Stafford was the only QB in Week 5 to throw for over 100 yards on passes that traveled 20 + yards and not have a TD. This week the Rams travel to New York to face the Giants. The Giants might struggle to move the ball vs. the Rams, which could limit Stafford’s opportunities. This makes Stafford just a low-end QB1 this week.

Week 4
This was Stafford’s worst game of the season. He was simply out of sync and inaccurate, especially when throwing to WR Cooper Kupp. That pair connected on just 5 of 13 targets. One of the misses was a Kupp drop, but Stafford missed him 3 times, including for a couple of TDs. Stafford also underthrew WR DeSean Jackson on a potential long TD that turned into an INT.

We’ll give Stafford a mulligan for this one considering how awesome he was over the season’s first 3 weeks. HC Sean McVay still has this passing game humming. The opportunity was there for Stafford to throw for something like 400 yards and 4 TDs in Week 4.

Expect a bounce-back this Thursday night in a plus matchup vs. the Seahawks. That’s followed by a meeting with the Giants, followed by a dreamy 3-week stretch: vs. Detroit, at Houston, vs. Tennessee.

Week 3
Stafford is in the early lead for MVP as he has just beat up the Super Bowl Champs for 341 yards and 4 TDs. The biggest takeaway from Week 3 was the reemergence of DeSean Jackson. Jackson gives the Rams offense a vertical element they were lacking. And with Stafford’s big arm this could unlock a new ceiling for this offense. Now with Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods to go along with Tyler Higbee at TE, Stafford has everything at his disposal in LA to make him a solid fantasy asset rest of season.
This week the Rams will be in a potential shootout as they take on the Cardinals The Cardinals D has been solid this season but allowed 3 TDs to Kirk Cousins in Week 2. If you drafted Stafford, you are starting him in Week 4.

Week 2
Stafford turned in his 2nd straight impressive outing in Sunday’s win over the Rams. It wasn’t quite the 321-3-0 passing line he posted in the opener, but 278 yards and a pair of scores will do.

Stafford again leaned on WR Cooper Kupp, who accounted for 163 yards and both TDs. Kupp lined up in the backfield on the 1st score, splitting zone coverage and finding himself wide open in the end zone. On the 2nd TD, Kupp ran a post route to find a soft spot in the middle of the Colts’ zone.

The only blemish on Stafford’s day came on an INT that appeared to be tipped at the line of scrimmage. But he was otherwise on point, completing 63% of his passes and averaging 9.3 yards per attempt.

Stafford sits 3rd among QBs in Pro Football Focus’ passing grades through 2 weeks. He ranks 11th at the position in fantasy points, despite ranking just 23rd in pass attempts.

And Stafford should be a QB1 for at least the next couple of months. His upcoming schedule looks tasty: Bucs, Cardinals, Seahawks, Giants, Lions, Texans and Titans.

Week 1
A game on Sunday Night Football was just what Stafford needed to show the world what we have been missing during his time in Detroit. There didn’t appear to be any rust for Stafford in his first game with the Rams. He opened the game 5 for 5 for 97 yards and a TD on a long post to Van Jefferson that went for a 67-yard score. Stafford appears to have a great rapport early with Sean McVay and his talented group of skill guys. He finished the night 20 for 26 for 321 yards, 3 TDs and a win against the Bears.
Being able to see Stafford with a competent supporting cast and Sean McVay calling the plays is a gift to football fans and fantasy owners. The guy has moved up to 2nd in betting odds to win the NFL MVP this season. Stafford enters a Week 2 matchup in Indianapolis against a tough Colts defense as our QB11. We believe Stafford is going to have a huge year in this offense working with Kupp, Woods, Jackson, Jefferson and Higbee. We have him ranked at QB10 rest of the way.

Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

The Rams swung a deal for Stafford in January, sending QB Jared Goff, a 2021 3rd-round pick and 1st-rounders in 2022 and 2023 to the Lions.
Stafford joins a Rams offense that is heading into year 5 under HC Sean McVay. In McVay’s first 4 seasons, the Rams ranked …
- 19th, 4th, 8th and 3rd in offensive snaps
- 1st, 2nd, 11th and 22nd in points
- 10th, 2nd, 7th and 11th in total yards
- 6th, 2nd, 16th and 10th in Football Outsiders’ offensive DVOA
- 10th, 5th, 4th and 13th in passing yards
- 6th, 8th, 19th and 26th in passing TDs
Jared Goff’s fantasy finishes those seasons: 12th, 6th, 12th, 16th
Stafford looks like an upgrade over Goff.
- Stafford has earned a higher Pro Football Focus passing grade than Goff in 2 straight seasons and 3 of the last 4.
- Goff beat Stafford in Football Outsiders’ DVOA in 2017 and 2018 -- but Stafford has finished significantly higher the past 2 years.
Stafford is more willing and able to throw downfield than Goff. Last year, 12.7% of Stafford’s throws traveled 20+ yards downfield vs. just 7.8% for Goff. And Stafford earned a 93.0 PFF passing grade on those throws vs. Goff’s 61.7.
Stafford was also better on play-action passes last year, averaging 8.9 yards per attempt and earning an 81.3 PFF grade vs. Goff’s 7.9 yards per attempt and 77.6 PFF grade. That’s especially noteworthy because the Rams ranked 2nd in play-action passes last year.
The Rams return 3 of last year’s top 5 target getters in WR Robert Woods, WR Cooper Kupp and TE Tyler Higbee.
They lost WR Josh Reynolds and TE Gerald Everett.
The Rams were clearly looking to add more speed at WR, signing free-agent DeSean Jackson and drafting Tutu Atwell. They also return 2020 2nd-rounder Van Jefferson. Overall, the team could very well get better play from its #3 WR spot this year than last.
L.A. only added 4th-round rookie Jacob Harris at TE. But more Higbee is probably a good thing considering he’s finished 3rd and 7th at his position in yards per route run the last 2 years.
The offensive line is the biggest concern for Stafford. The Rams are expected to have 4 of the same 5 starters from last year’s unit that ranked 29th in Pro Football Focus’ pass-blocking grades. The good news is that the Rams finished 2nd in adjusted sack rate last year -- largely a testament to McVay’s scheme.
Stafford missed 8 games in 2019 with fractured bones in his back. He played all 16 last year but dealt with injuries to his right thumb, left elbow, ribs, knee and ankle. He had what was reportedly “minor” and “elective” surgery on the thumb in March but is expected to be back to 100% for training camp.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Let’s not make this complicated. The eye test and the numbers say Stafford should be an upgrade over Jared Goff for the Rams. And Goff finished as a top 12 fantasy QB in 3 of the last 4 seasons.

Barring injury or serious decline, Stafford is a good bet for lower-end QB1 numbers in 2021. His lack of rushing production will make it tough for him to climb into the top half of QB1 territory.

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Rams QB Matt Stafford's health is "certainly an issue," ESPN's Dianna Russini reports. Stafford is dealing with elbow pain and a chronic back issue, per Russini. Stafford has looked banged up on a few occasions this season and struggled in his last 2 outings prior to the bye. He's not listed on the Week 12 injury report, and we're not altering Stafford's projections vs. the Packers today. But his health will be worth keeping a close eye on the rest of the way.

View all Matthew Stafford Shark Bites »

Rams RB Matt Stafford (back) is not listed on the final Week 9 injury report. He only got in a limited practice on Friday, but HC Sean McVay said all week that Stafford would be fine for Sunday night’s game vs. the Titans. He’s safe to use in fantasy lineups.

View all Matthew Stafford Shark Bites »

Rams QB Matt Stafford (back) missed practice again on Thursday. HC Sean McVay has said that he expects Stafford to play vs. the Titans on Sunday night -- and we haven't sensed any concern from Rams beat writers. But check back tomorrow for another update on Stafford.

View all Matthew Stafford Shark Bites »

Rams QB Matt Stafford missed Wednesday's practice with what he said was back stiffness. He added that he fully expects to play vs. the Titans on Sunday night. We'll see if he gets back on the practice field tomorrow.

View all Matthew Stafford Shark Bites »

Rams QB Matt Stafford injured his right index finger in the 2nd quarter of Thursday night's win over the Seahawks but was able to play through it after getting a tape job. “I don’t know (what happened),” Stafford said afterward. “I looked down at a certain point on a drive in the second quarter, I think the one we kicked a field goal on, and I just looked down and felt a little pressure (in the finger). I maybe got it on a handoff or a snap or something. Not 100 percent sure. I looked down, felt a little bit of pressure in there and it was just a little bit out of place. Was able to put it back in and keep going, it didn’t affect me too much, to be honest with you.” Stafford missed a few throws in the win, although it's unclear if the misfires were caused by the finger injury. We'll keep an eye on the situation when the Rams get back to work next week, but Stafford should be fine for Week 6's matchup with the Giants.

View all Matthew Stafford Shark Bites »

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