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Matthew Stafford - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Matthew Stafford
LAR

QB LAR

#11 Quarterback

381 Projected Points

ADP: Not Available
Bye: 11
Experience: 12 Yr(s)
Age: 33
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 232
40 Time: 4.81

Weekly Outlook

3d Projection

Med Floor

18.8

DS Projection

24.1

Consensus

38 other sites
24

Low Ceiling

28.2

Rest of
Season

23.1

Week 6 Projections
Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
306 2.3 0.6 2 24.1
Weekly Writeup
Stafford hasn't been great the past 2 weeks, ranking 20th and 23rd in Pro Football Focus' passing grades. He's in a nice bounce-back spot on Sunday, though, vs. a Giants squad sitting 22nd in Football Outsiders' pass defense rankings and 26th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs.

Rest Of Way Outlook

Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
290 2 0.7 6.9 23.1
Week 5
It is very rare that you can say your QB threw for 365 yards and disappointed for fantasy. Stafford did just that, finishing as the QB17 on the week. Stafford’s numbers on paper outside of TDs are still elite as his 365 yards on 9.9 yards per attempt were inside the top 10 on the week. Stafford’s day could have been a lot better as Van Jefferson dropped a potential TD which later in the drive turned into a Stafford INT.
Better days are ahead for Stafford as he continues to display elite deep passing ability. Stafford was the only QB in Week 5 to throw for over 100 yards on passes that traveled 20 + yards and not have a TD. This week the Rams travel to New York to face the Giants. The Giants might struggle to move the ball vs. the Rams, which could limit Stafford’s opportunities. This makes Stafford just a low-end QB1 this week.
Week 4
This was Stafford’s worst game of the season. He was simply out of sync and inaccurate, especially when throwing to WR Cooper Kupp. That pair connected on just 5 of 13 targets. One of the misses was a Kupp drop, but Stafford missed him 3 times, including for a couple of TDs. Stafford also underthrew WR DeSean Jackson on a potential long TD that turned into an INT.

We’ll give Stafford a mulligan for this one considering how awesome he was over the season’s first 3 weeks. HC Sean McVay still has this passing game humming. The opportunity was there for Stafford to throw for something like 400 yards and 4 TDs in Week 4.

Expect a bounce-back this Thursday night in a plus matchup vs. the Seahawks. That’s followed by a meeting with the Giants, followed by a dreamy 3-week stretch: vs. Detroit, at Houston, vs. Tennessee.
Week 3
Stafford is in the early lead for MVP as he has just beat up the Super Bowl Champs for 341 yards and 4 TDs. The biggest takeaway from Week 3 was the reemergence of DeSean Jackson. Jackson gives the Rams offense a vertical element they were lacking. And with Stafford’s big arm this could unlock a new ceiling for this offense. Now with Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods to go along with Tyler Higbee at TE, Stafford has everything at his disposal in LA to make him a solid fantasy asset rest of season.
This week the Rams will be in a potential shootout as they take on the Cardinals The Cardinals D has been solid this season but allowed 3 TDs to Kirk Cousins in Week 2. If you drafted Stafford, you are starting him in Week 4.
Week 2
Stafford turned in his 2nd straight impressive outing in Sunday’s win over the Rams. It wasn’t quite the 321-3-0 passing line he posted in the opener, but 278 yards and a pair of scores will do.

Stafford again leaned on WR Cooper Kupp, who accounted for 163 yards and both TDs. Kupp lined up in the backfield on the 1st score, splitting zone coverage and finding himself wide open in the end zone. On the 2nd TD, Kupp ran a post route to find a soft spot in the middle of the Colts’ zone.

The only blemish on Stafford’s day came on an INT that appeared to be tipped at the line of scrimmage. But he was otherwise on point, completing 63% of his passes and averaging 9.3 yards per attempt.

Stafford sits 3rd among QBs in Pro Football Focus’ passing grades through 2 weeks. He ranks 11th at the position in fantasy points, despite ranking just 23rd in pass attempts.

And Stafford should be a QB1 for at least the next couple of months. His upcoming schedule looks tasty: Bucs, Cardinals, Seahawks, Giants, Lions, Texans and Titans.
Week 1
A game on Sunday Night Football was just what Stafford needed to show the world what we have been missing during his time in Detroit. There didn’t appear to be any rust for Stafford in his first game with the Rams. He opened the game 5 for 5 for 97 yards and a TD on a long post to Van Jefferson that went for a 67-yard score. Stafford appears to have a great rapport early with Sean McVay and his talented group of skill guys. He finished the night 20 for 26 for 321 yards, 3 TDs and a win against the Bears.
Being able to see Stafford with a competent supporting cast and Sean McVay calling the plays is a gift to football fans and fantasy owners. The guy has moved up to 2nd in betting odds to win the NFL MVP this season. Stafford enters a Week 2 matchup in Indianapolis against a tough Colts defense as our QB11. We believe Stafford is going to have a huge year in this offense working with Kupp, Woods, Jackson, Jefferson and Higbee. We have him ranked at QB10 rest of the way.

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • The Rams swung a deal for Stafford in January, sending QB Jared Goff, a 2021 3rd-round pick and 1st-rounders in 2022 and 2023 to the Lions.
  • Stafford joins a Rams offense that is heading into year 5 under HC Sean McVay. In McVay’s first 4 seasons, the Rams ranked …
    • 19th, 4th, 8th and 3rd in offensive snaps
    • 1st, 2nd, 11th and 22nd in points
    • 10th, 2nd, 7th and 11th in total yards
    • 6th, 2nd, 16th and 10th in Football Outsiders’ offensive DVOA
    • 10th, 5th, 4th and 13th in passing yards
    • 6th, 8th, 19th and 26th in passing TDs
  • Jared Goff’s fantasy finishes those seasons: 12th, 6th, 12th, 16th
  • Stafford looks like an upgrade over Goff.
    • Stafford has earned a higher Pro Football Focus passing grade than Goff in 2 straight seasons and 3 of the last 4.
    • Goff beat Stafford in Football Outsiders’ DVOA in 2017 and 2018 -- but Stafford has finished significantly higher the past 2 years.
  • Stafford is more willing and able to throw downfield than Goff. Last year, 12.7% of Stafford’s throws traveled 20+ yards downfield vs. just 7.8% for Goff. And Stafford earned a 93.0 PFF passing grade on those throws vs. Goff’s 61.7.
  • Stafford was also better on play-action passes last year, averaging 8.9 yards per attempt and earning an 81.3 PFF grade vs. Goff’s 7.9 yards per attempt and 77.6 PFF grade. That’s especially noteworthy because the Rams ranked 2nd in play-action passes last year.
  • The Rams return 3 of last year’s top 5 target getters in WR Robert Woods, WR Cooper Kupp and TE Tyler Higbee.
  • They lost WR Josh Reynolds and TE Gerald Everett.
  • The Rams were clearly looking to add more speed at WR, signing free-agent DeSean Jackson and drafting Tutu Atwell. They also return 2020 2nd-rounder Van Jefferson. Overall, the team could very well get better play from its #3 WR spot this year than last.
  • L.A. only added 4th-round rookie Jacob Harris at TE. But more Higbee is probably a good thing considering he’s finished 3rd and 7th at his position in yards per route run the last 2 years.
  • The offensive line is the biggest concern for Stafford. The Rams are expected to have 4 of the same 5 starters from last year’s unit that ranked 29th in Pro Football Focus’ pass-blocking grades. The good news is that the Rams finished 2nd in adjusted sack rate last year -- largely a testament to McVay’s scheme.
  • Stafford missed 8 games in 2019 with fractured bones in his back. He played all 16 last year but dealt with injuries to his right thumb, left elbow, ribs, knee and ankle. He had what was reportedly “minor” and “elective” surgery on the thumb in March but is expected to be back to 100% for training camp.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Let’s not make this complicated. The eye test and the numbers say Stafford should be an upgrade over Jared Goff for the Rams. And Goff finished as a top 12 fantasy QB in 3 of the last 4 seasons.

Barring injury or serious decline, Stafford is a good bet for lower-end QB1 numbers in 2021. His lack of rushing production will make it tough for him to climb into the top half of QB1 territory.

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Rams QB Matt Stafford injured his right index finger in the 2nd quarter of Thursday night's win over the Seahawks but was able to play through it after getting a tape job. “I don’t know (what happened),” Stafford said afterward. “I looked down at a certain point on a drive in the second quarter, I think the one we kicked a field goal on, and I just looked down and felt a little pressure (in the finger). I maybe got it on a handoff or a snap or something. Not 100 percent sure. I looked down, felt a little bit of pressure in there and it was just a little bit out of place. Was able to put it back in and keep going, it didn’t affect me too much, to be honest with you.” Stafford missed a few throws in the win, although it's unclear if the misfires were caused by the finger injury. We'll keep an eye on the situation when the Rams get back to work next week, but Stafford should be fine for Week 6's matchup with the Giants.

View all Matthew Stafford Shark Bites »

Rams QB Matt Stafford practiced on Tuesday, running the 1st-team offense in the team's 1st padded session of training camp. The thumb injury he suffered on Monday clearly isn't a concern. Consider Stafford's fantasy stock unaffected.

View all Matthew Stafford Shark Bites »

X-rays on Rams QB Matt Stafford's right thumb came back clean, The Athletic's Jourdan Rodrigue reports. "I don’t think anybody is panicking, although I would not be surprised if he were to be held out for a day at least as an extra precaution," Rodrigue added. We'll keep an eye on Stafford, but this doesn't sound like something that'll impact his 2021 season.

View all Matthew Stafford Shark Bites »

Rams QB Matt Stafford injured his right (throwing) thumb during Monday's practice. He reportedly slammed it into a defender's helmet on his follow-through. “We’ll see,” HC Sean McVay said after practice. “We’ll see what they say and take it one day at a time.” Stafford had surgery to repair a partially torn ligament in that thumb in early March, right after he was traded to the Rams. We'll update his status as soon as we know more.

View all Matthew Stafford Shark Bites »

Rams QB Matt Stafford had surgery on his right (throwing) thumb in March, The Athletic reports. The procedure was "minor" and "elective," according to a source. Stafford revealed back in February that he played through a partially torn UCL in that thumb last season -- in addition to elbow, rib, knee and ankle injuries. The 33-year-old is expected to be available for the offseason program and at 100% by training camp. He's played all 16 games in 9 of the last 10 seasons.

View all Matthew Stafford Shark Bites »

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