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Matthew Stafford - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsMatthew Stafford's Basic Stats

Matthew Stafford
ADP: 14.8
Bye: 10
Experience: 14 Yr(s)
Age: 35.6
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 220
40 Time: 4.81
SPARQx (Rank): 87.50 (42%)
Burst Score (Rank): 106.90 (33%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.53 (45%)

Matthew Stafford's Weekly Outlook

Week 4 Projections
Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
274.8 1.6 0.8 3.6 16.6
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
248.3 1.8 0.9 4.2 16.5

Matthew Stafford's 2023 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#18 Quarterback

263.9 Projected Points

ADP Comp/Att P Yds P TD INT Att R Yds Fum
14.8 345.3/520 3972.8 28.3 14.7 26 66.8 2.5

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsMatthew Stafford's Preseason Player Analysis

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Bottom Line

Stafford ranked just 22nd among QBs in fantasy points per game through eight healthy games last year. His season ended with a spinal cord contusion.

He’s back as the Rams’ starter this season and is just two years removed from a QB5 finish in his Rams debut.

But that Rams team had a stronger pass-catching corps and offensive line.

We’re not betting on the 35-year-old Stafford bouncing back into fantasy’s top-10 QBs.

Draft him only as a QB2.

What We Learned Last Year
  • Stafford missed eight games and about half of a ninth. He missed Week 10 in the concussion protocol and then was knocked out of Week 11 with another concussion plus a spinal cord contusion.
  • In his eight healthy games, Stafford averaged:
    • 241 passing yards
    • 1.0 passing TDs
  • Stafford ranked just 22nd among QBs in fantasy points per game over that stretch.
  • He finished as a top-12 fantasy QB in just one of those eight games. He ranked outside the top 20 in four of them.
  • Stafford completed a career-high 68.0% of his passes last season.
  • But his 6.9 yards per pass attempt was his worst mark since 2018 and the fifth-worst mark among his 14 NFL seasons. Stafford averaged 8.1 yards per pass in his first season with the Rams.
  • Stafford’s average pass traveled just 6.7 yards past the line of scrimmage last year. That ranked 30th among 33 qualifiers and was way down from his 8.5-yard mark in 2021.
  • The offensive line was part of the problem. The 2022 Rams ranked:
    • 24th in Pro Football Focus’ pass-blocking grades
    • 13th in ESPN’s Pass Block Win Rate
  • Stafford’s 2.58-second average time to throw was 6th quickest among 31 qualifiers. (He had a 2.66-second average time to throw in 2021.)

What to Expect in 2023:

  • Stafford avoided surgery on that spinal cord contusion. And, despite speculation that he’d be forced to retire, he was able to participate in offseason workouts. It doesn’t look like that injury will be an issue in 2023.
  • Durability remains a concern here, though. There was the spinal cord injury, two concussions, and elbow tendonitis just last season. His career injury history is lengthy.
  • Stafford turned 35 in February.
  • The Rams return WRs Cooper Kupp, Van Jefferson, Tutu Atwell, and Ben Skowronek, plus TE Tyler Higbee. They traded WR Allen Robinson, who saw 52 targets in 10 games last year, to the Steelers. Additions to the pass-catching corps: Fifth-round rookie WR Puka Nacua, WR Demarcus Robinson, fifth-round rookie TE Davis Allen, and TE Hunter Long. It’s an underwhelming pass-catching corps.
  • The offensive line should be better this season. Among this year’s projected starters, RT Joe Noteboom missed 11 games last year, C Brian Allen 10, and RG Logan Bruss all 17. The Rams spent the 36th pick of this spring’s draft on Steve Avila, who’s the favorite for the starting LG job.

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Matthew Stafford, QB LAR

12:54am EDT 9/26/23

Matthew Stafford swallowed by Bengals

Rams QB Matthew Stafford completed 18 of 33 passes for 269 yards with 1 TD and 2 INTs in Week’s loss vs. the Bengals. He also added a light 7 rushing yards in the contest. Credit where it’s due: Bengals LB Logan Wilson’s 2 picks off Stafford were very impressive. On top of forcing turnovers, the Cincinnati defense sacked Stafford 6 different times throughout primetime action. Some blame here goes to the QB, but the showing from the Bengals’ defenders deserves a shoutout here as well. Hopefully, Stafford can turn things around in Week 4 vs. the Colts.

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The Rams will place WR Cooper Kupp (hamstring) on IR, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. That knocks Kupp out for at least the first four games of the season. Hopefully he's ready to go come Week 5 and the hamstring trouble doesn't resurface. Kupp is certainly worth stashing in all fantasy leagues. Van Jefferson figures to operate as Los Angeles' No. 1 WR with Kupp out. We'll see how the WR corps shakes out behind him. TE Tyler Higbee should also see a bunch of targets sans Kupp.

View all Cooper Kupp Shark Bites »

Rams QB Matt Stafford appears to be throwing a full workload in training camp, according to The Athletic's Jourdan Rodrigue. That wasn't the case the past two summers, as Stafford dealt with injuries. “I feel a lot better physically,” Stafford said. “I feel really healthy compared to where I was at this point last year, so that’s fun for me.” There's bounce-back potential here given better health for Stafford, WR Cooper Kupp, and the Rams' offensive line.

View all Matthew Stafford Shark Bites »

Rams QB Matt Stafford's 2022 season ended in Week 11 with a spinal cord contusion. He was disappointing even before that, ranking 22nd among QBs in fantasy points per game. Stafford's 6.9 yards per pass attempt was his worst mark since 2018 and the fifth-worst mark among his 14 NFL seasons. A leaky offensive line was part of the problem. But Stafford registered his lowest Pro Football Focus passing grade since 2015, ranking 22nd among 31 qualifying QBs. Now 35, Stafford's best days are certainly behind him. But there's some bounce-back potential here with better health for Stafford, WR Cooper Kupp, and the offensive line. Remember that Stafford finished fifth among QBs in fantasy points in his Rams debut in 2021. We're not expecting him to return to that level of production -- but he doesn't need to at his current QB19 ADP. See where Stafford sits in our 2023 QB Rankings.

View all Matthew Stafford Shark Bites »

Cam DaSilva of USA Today writes that QB Matthew Stafford is “fully healthy and taking part in everything” this offseason. That wasn’t the case last year, as the veteran needed an injection in his right elbow after the ’21 season. “Oh, it’s night and day. And he’ll be the first to tell you,” HC Sean McVay said on Stafford’s improved health. At QB20, he's going in a reasonable range in drafts. It’s just hard to see Stafford crushing that spot given the Rams’ lack of weapons behind Cooper Kupp.

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Dynasty Overview View QB Dynasty Rankings »

Matthew Stafford, QB LAR
Dynasty MVP 140.7
Position Rank #38 QB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
529
756
945
Dynasty Write-up
Stafford is under contract through the 2026 season, but there's almost no chance he makes it that far. The 35-year-old saw his 2022 end following a spinal cord injury. He also suffered a concussion in November. Los Angeles' supporting cast lacks difference-making talent beyond Cooper Kupp.
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