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Matthew Stafford - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsMatthew Stafford's Basic Stats

Matthew Stafford
ADP: 8.10
Bye: 7
Experience: 13 Yr(s)
Age: 34.6
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 220
40 Time: 4.81
SPARQx (Rank): 87.50 (42%)
Burst Score (Rank): 106.90 (33%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.53 (45%)

Matthew Stafford's Weekly Outlook

Week 4 Projections
Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
265.2 1.7 0.9 2.1 16.3
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
290.1 2 0.8 4.1 19.2

Matthew Stafford's 2022 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#11 Quarterback

333.7 Projected Points

ADP Comp/Att P Yds P TD INT Att R Yds Fum
8.10 421.9/625 4968.8 35 13.8 29 69.6 0

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsMatthew Stafford's Preseason Player Analysis

View QB Fantasy Rankings »
What You Need to Know:
  • In his debut season with the Rams, Stafford finished 3rd league-wide with 4,886 passing yards and 2nd with 41 passing TDs.
  • Here’s where he ranked in other key metrics:
    • 10th in completion rate (67.2%)
    • 3rd in yards per attempt (8.1)
    • 5th in adjusted yards per attempt (8.2)
    • 9th in Pro Football Focus passing grade
    • 9th in Football Outsiders DVOA
  • Stafford finished 5th or 6th among QBs in fantasy points, depending on the scoring system.
  • He scored as a top-12 fantasy QB in 11 weeks – tied for 3rd most.
  • Stafford’s 5 top-5 weeks were tied for 6th most among QBs.
  • The Rams return last year’s top 3 target-getters in WR Cooper Kupp, WR Van Jefferson and TE Tyler Higbee.
    • Kupp alone accounted for 41.2% of Stafford’s 2021 passing fantasy points.
  • WR Robert Woods was traded to the Titans in March. WR Odell Beckham remains unsigned as of mid-June after tearing his ACL in the Super Bowl.
    • Those 2 combined for 19.3% of the Rams’ targets, 17.7% of the catches, 17.6% of the receiving yards and 22.0% of the receiving TDs last year.
  • The Rams signed WR Allen Robinson to a 3-year, $46.5 million deal in free agency.
    • Robinson is coming off an ugly 2021, missing 5 games and finishing with a 38-410-1 line. He dealt with shaky QB play but also posted a career-worst Pro Football Focus receiving grade, ranking 65th among 89 qualifying WRs.
    • Robinson ranked 5th and 12th in PFF receiving grade the previous 2 years.
    • He turns 29 in August and is entering his 9th NFL season. Our aging curves show that we should expect 78% of peak production from a WR in year 9.
  • The Rams lost LT Andrew Whitworth to retirement and RG Austin Corbett to Carolina in free agency.
    • Joe Noteboom, who has just 672 career snaps at LT, is expected to replace Whitworth.
    • 3rd-round rookie Logan Bruss is penciled in at RG.
    • This unit might take a significant step back after ranking 13th in PFF pass-blocking grades last year.
  • Despite ranking 11th in offensive pace and 4th in situation-neutral pace, the Rams finished just 18th with 62.2 offensive snaps per game last year.
    • That was down from 68.0, 65.9 and 66.3 plays per game the previous 3 seasons.
    • The Rams are a good bet to run more plays – and, therefore, throw more passes – this year.
  • Stafford got an injection in his right elbow after the Super Bowl to address an issue that bothered him during last season. He didn’t throw during the offseason program but is expected to be throwing by training camp.
  • Rams HC Sean McVay spoke about QB Matthew Stafford's right elbow issue on Thursday. McVay called it "a tricky deal," "abnormal for a QB” and "things that MLB pitchers deal with," per The Athletic's Jourdan Rodriguez.
Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Stafford was awesome in his Rams debut, winning a Super Bowl and finishing 5th or 6th among QBs in fantasy points.

He returns to the same offense in 2022, along with WR Cooper Kupp, WR Van Jefferson and TE Tyler Higbee. But Stafford will be dealing with the departures of WRs Robert Woods and Odell Beckham – plus 2 of last year’s offensive line starters.

We’re projecting a slight step back in Stafford’s numbers this year. But he’s a safe bet for at least low-end QB1 production.

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Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Matthew Stafford, QB LAR

8:35am EDT 9/19/22

Stafford has mixed performance

Rams QB Matthew Stafford threw for 272 yards and 3 TDs in Sunday's win over the Falcons. He also tossed a pair of INTs. Stafford's scores went to, of course, Cooper Kupp (twice) and Allen Robinson. He targeted Kupp (14) or Tyler Higbee (9) on 63.9% of his pass attempts.

View all Matthew Stafford Shark Bites »

ESPN's Adam Schefter reports that Rams QB Matthew Stafford had a "procedure" on his right elbow in the offseason "to deal with the pain he experienced last season and to help prepare for this season." Schefter's sources say Stafford's throwing elbow now feels better than it did a year ago. That corroborates last week's words from the QB and HC Sean McVay that Stafford's heading into the season with no limitations. At this point, all we can do is trust the Rams' words on their QB. We haven't lowered Stafford or his pass-catchers in our projections.

View all Matthew Stafford Shark Bites »

Asked about the health of his elbow, Rams QB Matthew Stafford said Sunday, "I feel good, no limitations ... I feel great," according to NFL Network's Omar Ruiz. Stafford added, though, that he'll go week to week in determining what he'll need to do for it. HC Sean McVay reportedly added that he would have "no hesitation" with having Stafford throw 50-55 passes in a game, if needed. It's clear that Stafford's elbow isn't all the way back to 100%. But it also seems like he's good enough at least for early-season fantasy football purposes.

View all Matthew Stafford Shark Bites »

After attending Rams practice on Wednesday, insider Peter King said QB Matt Stafford's arm "has not fallen off." Added King, "He really threw the ball well. ... The zip on the ball was very good. I think the reports of the death of his arm have been greatly exaggerated." It's certainly sounding like Stafford's right elbow issue is more of a pain-management thing, and not something that'll impact his play this season.

View all Matthew Stafford Shark Bites »

Rams QB Matt Stafford said Wednesday that his right elbow "feels good" and is "right on track." He admitted that he's not sure when the soreness in that elbow will go away, but he doesn't think it'll impact his performance. "I'm just going out there, doing my work [and] trusting the process that we have," Stafford said. "I know that I'm able to go out there and function at a high level right now. So whatever it feels like, hopefully, continues to keep getting better as it has. But I know that functionally, I feel like I can do everything I need to do. So just trying to continue on that road."

View all Matthew Stafford Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View QB Dynasty Rankings »

Matthew Stafford, QB LAR
Dynasty MVP 295.7
Position Rank #15 QB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
991
1,639
2,287
Dynasty Write-up
Stafford’s first season in L.A. turned up 41 TDs, matching his 2011 career-high. He’s 34, though, and has dealt with a right elbow issue all offseason. The 2022 ceiling remains high with Allen Robinson joining Cooper Kupp.
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