Matthew Stafford - Fantasy Points Outlook

What You Need to Know:

• In his debut season with the Rams, Stafford finished 3rd league-wide with 4,886 passing yards and 2nd with 41 passing TDs.
• Here’s where he ranked in other key metrics:
  • 10th in completion rate (67.2%)
  • 3rd in yards per attempt (8.1)
  • 5th in adjusted yards per attempt (8.2)
  • 9th in Pro Football Focus passing grade
  • 9th in Football Outsiders DVOA
• Stafford finished 5th or 6th among QBs in fantasy points, depending on the scoring system.
• He scored as a top-12 fantasy QB in 11 weeks – tied for 3rd most.
• Stafford’s 5 top-5 weeks were tied for 6th most among QBs.
• The Rams return last year’s top 3 target-getters in WR Cooper Kupp, WR Van Jefferson and TE Tyler Higbee.
  • Kupp alone accounted for 41.2% of Stafford’s 2021 passing fantasy points.
• WR Robert Woods was traded to the Titans in March. WR Odell Beckham remains unsigned as of mid-June after tearing his ACL in the Super Bowl.
  • Those 2 combined for 19.3% of the Rams’ targets, 17.7% of the catches, 17.6% of the receiving yards and 22.0% of the receiving TDs last year.
• The Rams signed WR Allen Robinson to a 3-year, $46.5 million deal in free agency.
  • Robinson is coming off an ugly 2021, missing 5 games and finishing with a 38-410-1 line. He dealt with shaky QB play but also posted a career-worst Pro Football Focus receiving grade, ranking 65th among 89 qualifying WRs.
  • Robinson ranked 5th and 12th in PFF receiving grade the previous 2 years.
  • He turns 29 in August and is entering his 9th NFL season. Our aging curves show that we should expect 78% of peak production from a WR in year 9.
• The Rams lost LT Andrew Whitworth to retirement and RG Austin Corbett to Carolina in free agency.
  • Joe Noteboom, who has just 672 career snaps at LT, is expected to replace Whitworth.
  • 3rd-round rookie Logan Bruss is penciled in at RG.
  • This unit might take a significant step back after ranking 13th in PFF pass-blocking grades last year.
• Despite ranking 11th in offensive pace and 4th in situation-neutral pace, the Rams finished just 18th with 62.2 offensive snaps per game last year.
  • That was down from 68.0, 65.9 and 66.3 plays per game the previous 3 seasons.
  • The Rams are a good bet to run more plays – and, therefore, throw more passes – this year.
• Stafford got an injection in his right elbow after the Super Bowl to address an issue that bothered him during last season. He didn’t throw during the offseason program but is expected to be throwing by training camp.
• Rams HC Sean McVay spoke about QB Matthew Stafford's right elbow issue on Thursday. McVay called it "a tricky deal," "abnormal for a QB” and "things that MLB pitchers deal with," per The Athletic's Jourdan Rodriguez.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Stafford was awesome in his Rams debut, winning a Super Bowl and finishing 5th or 6th among QBs in fantasy points.

He returns to the same offense in 2022, along with WR Cooper Kupp, WR Van Jefferson and TE Tyler Higbee. But Stafford will be dealing with the departures of WRs Robert Woods and Odell Beckham – plus 2 of last year’s offensive line starters.

We’re projecting a slight step back in Stafford’s numbers this year. But he’s a safe bet for at least low-end QB1 production.