What You Need to Know:

• Pittman tallied a 40-503-1 line in 13 games as a rookie last year, finishing 97th among WRs in non-PPR points per game and 90th in PPR points per game.
• He underwent surgery in late September to address compartment syndrome in his calf and missed the next 3 games.
• Pittman was limited in his first game back from that injury. But he played 72+% of the Colts’ offensive snaps in each of the final 10 games (including the playoff loss).
• Over that stretch, he averaged 5.8 targets, 3.5 catches and 51.4 yards per game.
• Pittman ranked 55th in Pro Football Focus receiving grades and 43rd in yards per route run among 61 WRs with 40+ targets from Week 9 on.
• He saw a season-high 10 targets, catching 5 for 90 yards, in the Colts’ playoff loss to the Bills -- a promising end to his debut season.
• The Colts return 7 of their top 8 target-getters from last season, with TE Trey Burton the only notable departure. The team re-signed 31-year-old WR T.Y. Hilton to a 1-year, $8 million deal in free agency after he led Indy with 93 targets (16.8% share) last season. The Colts will also hope to get a healthier season from WR Parris Campbell, who made it through just 1 game last year before a season-ending knee injury.
• The big change comes at QB, where Carson Wentz replaces Philip Rivers. That’ll be an upgrade if we get 2017-2019 Wentz; a downgrade if it’s 2020 Wentz.
• The Colts have ranked 27th and 25th in pass rate and 24th and 20th in pass attempts the past 2 seasons. Those teams were quarterbacked by Jacoby Brissett and then Rivers. In 2018 -- Frank Reich’s 1st season as HC and with Andrew Luck under center -- Indy finished 7th in pass rate and 2nd in attempts. We’re projecting the Colts’ 2021 pass rate to settle in between where it was in 2018 and 2019-2020.
• The Colts made Pittman the 34th overall pick of the 2020 NFL Draft. He improved his numbers in each of his 4 seasons at USC, culminating with a big 101-1,275-11 line in 2019. Pittman goes 6’4, 223 pounds and tested as an 86th percentile size-adjusted athlete at the Combine.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Pittman was mostly disappointing as a rookie, finishing with 40 catches for 503 yards and a single score in 13 games. It’s tough to know how big an impact a September calf injury had on the rest of his season (but it obviously didn’t help). Pittman did flash with a 5-catch, 90-yard outing in the Colts’ playoff loss to the Bills.

He’ll face basically the same competition for targets this year as last -- and has a real chance to emerge as Indianapolis’ #1 WR. Carson Wentz might also prove to be an upgrade over Philip Rivers.

We wouldn’t want to go into this season relying on Pittman as an every-week fantasy starter. But there’s certainly some breakout potential for the 2nd-year wideout.