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Michael Pittman - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Michael Pittman
IND

WR IND

#40 Wide Receiver

130 Projected Points

ADP: 9.7
Bye: 14
Experience: 1 Yr(s)
Age: 23
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 223
40 Time: 4.52

2021 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#40 Wide Receiver

130 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
9.7 70 945 6 1

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

3d Projection

Med Floor

110.5

DS Projection

130

Consensus

38 other sites
90.4

High Ceiling

169

Ceiling Likelihood

High
How likely they will reach their ceiling projection

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • Pittman tallied a 40-503-1 line in 13 games as a rookie last year, finishing 97th among WRs in non-PPR points per game and 90th in PPR points per game.
  • He underwent surgery in late September to address compartment syndrome in his calf and missed the next 3 games.
  • Pittman was limited in his first game back from that injury. But he played 72+% of the Colts’ offensive snaps in each of the final 10 games (including the playoff loss).
  • Over that stretch, he averaged 5.8 targets, 3.5 catches and 51.4 yards per game.
  • Pittman ranked 55th in Pro Football Focus receiving grades and 43rd in yards per route run among 61 WRs with 40+ targets from Week 9 on.
  • He saw a season-high 10 targets, catching 5 for 90 yards, in the Colts’ playoff loss to the Bills -- a promising end to his debut season.
  • The Colts return 7 of their top 8 target-getters from last season, with TE Trey Burton the only notable departure. The team re-signed 31-year-old WR T.Y. Hilton to a 1-year, $8 million deal in free agency after he led Indy with 93 targets (16.8% share) last season. The Colts will also hope to get a healthier season from WR Parris Campbell, who made it through just 1 game last year before a season-ending knee injury.
  • The big change comes at QB, where Carson Wentz replaces Philip Rivers. That’ll be an upgrade if we get 2017-2019 Wentz; a downgrade if it’s 2020 Wentz.
  • The Colts have ranked 27th and 25th in pass rate and 24th and 20th in pass attempts the past 2 seasons. Those teams were quarterbacked by Jacoby Brissett and then Rivers. In 2018 -- Frank Reich’s 1st season as HC and with Andrew Luck under center -- Indy finished 7th in pass rate and 2nd in attempts. We’re projecting the Colts’ 2021 pass rate to settle in between where it was in 2018 and 2019-2020.
  • The Colts made Pittman the 34th overall pick of the 2020 NFL Draft. He improved his numbers in each of his 4 seasons at USC, culminating with a big 101-1,275-11 line in 2019. Pittman goes 6’4, 223 pounds and tested as an 86th percentile size-adjusted athlete at the Combine.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Pittman was mostly disappointing as a rookie, finishing with 40 catches for 503 yards and a single score in 13 games. It’s tough to know how big an impact a September calf injury had on the rest of his season (but it obviously didn’t help). Pittman did flash with a 5-catch, 90-yard outing in the Colts’ playoff loss to the Bills.

He’ll face basically the same competition for targets this year as last -- and has a real chance to emerge as Indianapolis’ #1 WR. Carson Wentz might also prove to be an upgrade over Philip Rivers.

We wouldn’t want to go into this season relying on Pittman as an every-week fantasy starter. But there’s certainly some breakout potential for the 2nd-year wideout.

 

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

The Athletic's Stephen Holder predicts that Michael Pittman will become the Colts' #1 WR this season. "If he wants to become the Colts’ go-to wide receiver, the opportunity is there," Holder writes. "And I happen to think he’s very much up to the task." Pittman didn't stuff the stat sheet as a rookie. But his development was stunted in September by a significant calf injury. He returned to play 72+% of the Colts' offensive snaps in each of the final 10 games -- and went for 90 yards in the playoff loss in Buffalo. With T.Y. Hilton past his prime and Parris Campbell's already lengthy injury history, Pittman certainly has a chance to lead this team in targets. We like him as an upside pick at his 8th- or 9th-round price tag.

View all Michael Pittman Shark Bites »

Colts WR Michael Pittman (concussion) is active for today’s game against the Jaguars. It’s a great matchup, but Pittman has seemingly fallen behind T.Y. Hilton and Zach Pascal on the totem pole, totaling just 7 catches on 14 targets over the past 3 weeks.

View all Michael Pittman Shark Bites »

Colts WR Michael Pittman (concussion) is listed as questionable for this weekend’s game vs. the Jaguars. He got in full practices on Thursday and Friday, so he’s seemingly on track to get cleared. The matchup on Sunday is pristine, but Pittman has totaled just 7 catches on 14 targets over the past 3 weeks.

View all Michael Pittman Shark Bites »

Colts WR Michael Pittman (concussion) put in a limited practice on Wednesday. He's made some progress through the protocol. We'll see if he can get clearance for Sunday's game vs. the Jaguars.

View all Michael Pittman Shark Bites »

Colts WR Michael Pittman has entered the league's concussion protocol. We'll see if he can get cleared in time for Sunday's game against the Jaguars. The rookie has averaged 5.6 targets over Indy's last 8 games.

View all Michael Pittman Shark Bites »

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