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Pat Freiermuth - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsPat Freiermuth’s Basic Stats

Pat Freiermuth
ADP: N/A
Bye: 9
Experience: 3
Age: 26.1
Height: 6'5"
Weight: 258
40 Time: 4.82

Pat Freiermuth's Weekly Outlook

Week 15 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
3 30.9 0.23 4.3
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
3.2 33.1 0.2 4.7

Pat Freiermuth's 2024 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#20 Tight End

130.6 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
Not Available 53.2 526.4 4.13 1 0

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsPat Freiermuth's Preseason Player Analysis

View TE Fantasy Rankings »

Bottom Line

Freiermuth should benefit from the departure of OC Matt Canada, whose scheme appeared unprepared for the NFL. OC Arthur Smith figures to keep the passing volume limited, though. QB Russell Wilson is better than Kenny Pickett but also won’t vault his pass-catchers’ upside. Ultimately, Freiermuth has a path to rank second on this team in targets and push for low-TE1 scoring. That makes him a solid pick in the top half of TE2 range. He falls short of being exciting, though.

What We Learned Last Year

  • After catching 60+ balls in each of his first two seasons, Freiermuth should have been a breakout candidate in Year 3. Instead he endured his worst pro season to date.
  • The TE posted a career low 15.9% targets per route, according to Pro Football Focus.
  • His 1.12 yards per route also marked a career low. Freiermuth ranked 30th among 45 TEs who drew at least 30 targets in the regular season.
  • His 68.7 PFF receiving grade rated better – tied for 18th – but also presented a career low.
  • Freiermuth’s rate of inline pass snaps declined significantly – to 43.4% vs. 58.2% in 2022 and 60.9% his rookie year.
    • His 48.9% slot rate marked a steep increase from 36.4% in 2022 and 32.2% in 2021.
  • His rate of catchable targets declined for the second straight year. That number has gone from 84.6% to 81.1% to 80%. Freiermuth ranked 87th among all TEs in that category last season.
  • That came despite his aDOT shortening from 8.4 in 2022 to 7.0 last season.
  • Former Steelers OC (fired in November) drew plenty of criticism for his offenses’ reluctance to use the middle of the field regularly in the passing game.
  • Freiermuth lost five games to a hamstring injury. He previously hurt a hamstring in 2022 training camp, sitting out roughly 10 days of workouts.

What to Expect in 2024

  • It’s tough to know exactly how new OC Arthur Smith will deploy Freiermuth. The coach’s most recent lead TE, Kyle Pitts, is more WR – and certainly a different player type than Freiermuth.
    • Pitts (19.9% across three seasons) and Jonnu Smith (30.5% last year) each spent much less time inline under Arthur Smith than Freiermuth has for any of his Steelers offenses.
    • Hayden Hurst played 43.1% inline for the 2021 Falcons, though.
    • Jonnu Smith saw inline rates of 52.6% and 671% in two seasons with Arthur Smith as his Tennessee OC.
    • Delanie Walker spent 32.3% inline for the 2019 Titans.
  • Freiermuth sports traditional-TE size and less speed than Pitts, Smith, Walker, and maybe even Hurst (4.67 seconds, 74th-percentile).
  • The presence of blocking TE Darnell Washington could continue to free Freiermuth up for more slot usage. But having him and Connor Heyward around might also lower Freiermuth’s ceiling for total playing time.
    • He played 63.3% of snaps over his 12 games last season, down from 67.8% in 2022.
    • Freiermuth ranked a solid 10th among all TEs in pass snaps in 2022, though.
  • Pittsburgh traded away lead target Diontae Johnson this offseason. Replacements Roman Wilson (third-round rookie) and Van Jefferson (vet free agent) mean lesser competition for target share.
  • OC Arthur Smith likely won’t help the overall target volume. His three Atlanta seasons found that team ranking 30th in neutral-situation pass rate. His two years in Tennessee found the Titans ranking 31st.

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George Pickens, WR PIT

1:14pm EST 12/9/24

George Pickens Likely to Miss Week 15 With Grade 2 Hamstring Strain

Steelers WR George Pickens reportedly has a Grade 2 Hamstring strain and will likely miss next week's game against the Eagles. Pickens missed yesterday's game against the Browns as a game-time decision, but the injury appears to be more severe than describing this week.

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Steelers TE Pat Freiermuth caught one of Russell Wilson's two TD passes in Sunday's win over the Browns. Freiermuth caught three total passes for 48 yards among 3 targets.

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Steelers WR George Pickens (hamstring) is inactive for today’s game vs. the Browns. Reports on his status for this one were positive this morning, but Pickens’ pregame workout must not have gone well. His absence leaves a huge hole in Pittsburgh’s passing game. Pickens has accounted for 24% of the team's targets, 24% of the receptions, 32% of the receiving yards, and 30% of the receiving TDs since QB Russell Wilson took over. WRs Calvin Austin, Van Jefferson, and Mike Williams could all pick up extra targets, along with TEs Pat Freiermuth and Darnell Washington. But we’ll also likely see the Steelers lean even more on the run game. Russell Wilson is not a recommended QB1 play with Pickens out.

View all George Pickens Shark Bites »

The Bengals defense can make everyone look like a star. Steelers TE Pat Freiermuth caught six of seven team-leading targets for 68 yards and a TD. The TE was heavily involved in the short passing game this week.

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The forecast for tonight's Steelers-Browns game calls for temperatures just above freezing, 85% chance of precipitation, and winds of 15-20 mph with gusts of 25-30 mph. That's ugly. Expect an even run-heavier game plan from the Steelers than usual and for the Browns to run more than they typically do. And don't expect many points. This game has 36.5-point over/under. We'd avoid both QBs and kickers in the game and downgrade the WRs. See where all the Steelers and Browns sit in the updated Week 12 Rankings.

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Dynasty Overview View TE Dynasty Rankings »

Pat Freiermuth, TE PIT
Dynasty MVP 16
Position Rank #20 TE
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
314
495
859
Dynasty Write-up
Freiermuth's production went in reverse in 2023. Hamstring trouble and a poor season from Kenny Pickett limited the young TE to 32-308-2. We'll need to keep an eye on the usage of hulking TE Darnell Washington, who joined Pittsburgh as a Round 3 pick in 2023. His rookie year was predictably quiet, though. Note: Freiermuth signed a multi-year contract extension over the summer.
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