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Rob Gronkowski - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Rob Gronkowski
TB

TE TB

#19 Tight End

79 Projected Points

ADP: 8.4
Bye: 9
Experience: 11 Yr(s)
Age: 32
Height: 6'6"
Weight: 265
40 Time: 4.68

2021 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#19 Tight End

79 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
8.4 38 495 5 0

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

3d Projection

Med Floor

68.7

DS Projection

79

Consensus

38 other sites
95.8

High Ceiling

112.2

Ceiling Likelihood

Medium
How likely they will reach their ceiling projection

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

-Gronkowski returned to the league following 1 year in retirement. The Pats dealt him to the Bucs in April of 2020.

-Normally playing hurt, Gronk wasn’t even listed on the injury report. Good health — and a reunion with Tom Brady — helped Gronk post 77-45-623-7 as the TE8.

-High pass volume clearly helped. Tampa Bay ranked 3rd in pass rate (62.9%); Brady ranked 2nd in raw attempts (610).

-The 58.4% catch rate was certainly a disappointment. Chalk it up to some combination of rust/natural decline.

-Gronk caught a strong 62% of his contested targets. His drop rate was only 5.4%.

-Still, he wasn’t exactly consistent. He fell shy of just 8 PPR points 7 times.

-He saw 17.9% of Tampa Bay’s red zone targets (14) — 2nd most on the team behind Mike Evans.

-Chris Godwin missed 4 full games with several injuries. Gronk’s production wasn’t dependent on an absent Godwin, though: The former Patriot tallied 14-8-122-1 over that span.

-In 4 full games alongside O.J. Howard (Weeks 1-4, torn Achilles), Gronk was out-targeted 14-19. Gronk saw a team target share of just 9% over that stretch. Compare that to 13.8% without Howard.

-Howard (and Cameron Brate) returns for another year with the Bucs. But his effectiveness is a question mark coming off such a serious injury.

-Evans, Godwin and Antonio Brown (who joined in the middle of last season) all return for another go-around. Don’t bank on Gronk seeing nearly 80 targets for the 2nd straight season. His history also says we should expect some missed time in ’21. Gronk missed 14 games from 2016-2018.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line

After a year off, Gronkowski, 32, reminded us that he’s still a fantasy-relevant TE. While an O.J. Howard injury helped, Gronk retained his scoring dominance with a 15.5% TD rate (7 on just 45 catches). He should remain a red zone weapon in 2021.

Look for his volume to come down, though, with Chris Godwin, Mike Evans and Antonio Brown all returning for 2021. Gronk will also retain a high risk of injury, despite the clean 2020. He’s not one of our top TE targets.

 

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

The Bucs and TE Rob Gronkowski have agreed to a new 1-year, $10 million deal. Gronk was always expected to return to Tampa to make a run at another Super Bowl and has been projected that way in our rankings. He played in all 16 regular-season games last year for the 1st time since 2011, compiling a 45-623-7 line on 77 targets. That landed him 8th among TEs in PPR points. Gronk benefitted from injuries to both WR Chris Godwin and TE O.J. Howard, who will be back for 2021, so we have him projected for fewer targets and fantasy points.

View all Rob Gronkowski Shark Bites »

Bucs HC Bruce Arians called '12' personnel his "base offense" on Thursday. ('12' personnel means 1 RB, 2 WRs and 2 TEs.) The Bucs went '12' on 23% of their snaps last season -- the 8th highest rate in the league. Over the past 2 seasons, only 1 team (the 2019 Eagles) has gone '12' on more than 36% of their snaps. We'll buy the Bucs using more 2-TE looks this year after adding Rob Gronkowski to O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate. But don't expect it to be their most common alignment. It's still unlikely that more than 1 of those TEs is a reliable fantasy option. The other result of more 2-TE sets will be more snaps outside the numbers for WR Chris Godwin. That might ding his volume a tad but shouldn't be a big concern overall. Godwin was actually more efficient outside the numbers last season, averaging 2.27 yards per route run vs. 2.22 in the slot.

View all Rob Gronkowski Shark Bites »

Bucs TE Rob Gronkowski told NFL Network's Michael Giardi that he's "feeling good, feeling healthy." He admitted that his body "100% needed a rest." Gronk appeared to drop a lot of weight over the last year but said he's back up to 250 pounds -- 10 to 15 pounds lighter than he last played at. His conditioning has suddenly become 1 of the biggest fantasy storylines of the offseason, considering it'll have been about a year-and-a-half between his last 2 games.

View all Rob Gronkowski Shark Bites »

ESPN's Adam Schefter -- and others -- report that the Buccaneers are sending a 4th-round pick to the Patriots for TE Rob Gronkowski and a 7th-rounder, pending a physical. The news follows recent rumors that Gronk was looking to return to the NFL. The trade to Tampa Bay obviously reunites him with QB Tom Brady. It also complicates the outlook for Bucs TE O.J. Howard, unless he can move on in his own trade. Bruce Arians' use of Howard disappointed fantasy owners mightily in the HC's 1st year with the Bucs. But there would be little reason for this deal unless Tampa planned to get the ball to Gronkowski plenty. The 31-year-old (as of May 14) declined in 2018 but still ranked 9th in PPR points per game among TEs.

View all Rob Gronkowski Shark Bites »

Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski on Sunday announced via Instagram that he's retiring. That leaves New England with Stephen Anderson, Jacob Hollister, Ryan Izzo and Matt LaCosse at the position. Hollister and Dwayne Allen combined for the team's only 7 TE receptions outside of Gronk's 47. The oft-injured veteran clearly declined over the past couple of years, but we also expect New England to address the position in at least the NFL Draft or free agency now that Gronkowski's done. Even if they add a TE or 2, Gronk's departure figures to leave targets and red-zone chances available for multiple positions.

View all Rob Gronkowski Shark Bites »

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