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Rob Gronkowski - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Rob Gronkowski
TB

TE TB

#16 Tight End

79 Projected Points

ADP: Not Available
Bye: 9
Experience: 11 Yr(s)
Age: 32
Height: 6'6"
Weight: 265
40 Time: 4.68

Weekly Outlook

3d Projection

Low Floor

5.1

DS Projection

9.8

Consensus

38 other sites
9

Low Ceiling

13

Rest of
Season

Week 19 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
5.4 67.6 0.5 9.8
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Week 14
Gronkowski caught 5 of 9 targets for 62 yards in the Bucs' Week 14 overtime win over the Bills.
Gronk could have had a much bigger day but Brady missed him on 2 throws. Gronk had a chance at the other 2 as he laid out for a deep ball and had another knocked out of his hands down the sideline.
Gronk is an easy top 5 TE for the rest of the season, whenever he is healthy.
Week 13
It’s OK if you got mad when Cameron Brate caught Tom Brady’s 2nd TD pass in Sunday’s win over the Falcons. Fortunately, Gronk followed shortly thereafter with a 27-yard catch-and-run TD of his own. Then came another score in the 3rd quarter.

Gronkowski missed a frustrating stretch of games with his internal injuries, from Week 3 until Week 11 (minus a 6-snap, 1-target failed comeback attempt at New Orleans). But he’s been awesome when on the field. Sunday marked his 3rd 2-TD line in 6 healthy games and the 5th time he’s reached 8 targets in that time.

Matchups with Buffalo, New Orleans and Carolina the next 3 weeks have all been negative for TE scoring this year -- with the Bills 3rd-toughest in the league by our adjusted fantasy points allowed. But good luck finding a better fantasy option than Gronk on waivers any of those weeks.
Week 12
The Colts did an excellent job eliminating the Bucs’ WRs, but it didn’t take Tom Brady long to figure out that they had a major mismatch with Gronk. Whenever the Bucs needed a big play or to move the chains, it was passes to the TE that bailed them out. Gronk led the team easily in yardage and targets, but it was unfortunate that he failed to find the end zone. With the Bucs scoring 5 times from short distance, they gave all of the TDs to their RBs while Gronk was ignored at the goal line.

In the 5 healthy games he’s played this year, he’s surpassed 71 yards yards 3 times while scoring 4 TDs. And even though he’s not the level of receiver he was in the past, the fact that defenses have to worry about the WR group of the Bucs, no team will ever have the luxury to focus on taking Gronk out, and it’s extremely unlikely he’ll see many double teams. Add that to Tom Brady having the great connection with him, and there’s a very good chance he finishes the year as one of the top fantasy TE options each week. Although his schedule isn’t great, the next 3 games are against teams between No. 7 and No. 11 against TEs, Gronk should have the advantage each week.
Week 11
Gronkowski made it back on the field for the first time since Week 8 and finished with 6 receptions for 71 yards against the Giants. His 8 targets ranked him 2nd on the team behind WR Mike Evans’ 12. Gronk dominated the middle of the field as the Giants tried answer QB Tom Brady with a shell defense.
A TE the caliber of Gronk knows exactly how to break down a zone defense, and Brady utilized that beautifully throughout the game. Gronkowski even got loose in the secondary for a 35-yard gain that set up one of the TDs on the night. If he’s healthy, Gronk is still one of the best TEs for fantasy purposes. Next up is a juicy showdown against a Colts secondary that is susceptible to giving up big plays to TEs.
Week 4
Gronk missed the SNF Week 4 game against his old team with multiple injuries. He was injured in Week 3 against the Rams but was able to return after going to the locker room. It later came out that he had multiple fractured ribs and a punctured lung. Those injuries left him unable to make his return to Foxborough. The Bucs passing game certainly missed Gronk, especially in the red zone. With his injuries leaving him week to week, we don’t have him ranked in our initial Week 5 rankings; this could change throughout the week as practice reports come in. If he is able to play this weekend, he will be a borderline top 10 option against a Dolphins secondary that has given up over 220 yards and 3 TDs to opposing TEs through 4 games this season. His next three games on the schedule are MIA, @PHI, CHI.
Week 3
Gronkowski left this game briefly after taking a big hit to the ribs. The good news for fantasy owners is Gronk returned to the game. Even though he failed to find the end zone for the first time this season, his 4-55 on 7 targets was still a strong day for fantasy owners. That baseline will consistently make Gronk a low-end TE1 and with his TD upside he should continue to be the discussion for a top 5 TE finish on the year.
This week the Bucs take on the Patriots. Call it a gut feeling, but a Brady to Gronk TD this week seems inevitable as the boys travel up Foxboro for their first game against their old team. This makes this DFS stack intriguing for Week 4.
Week 2
Gronkowski caught 4 of 5 targets for 39 yards 2 TDs in the Bucs' Week 2 win over the Falcons.
Gronkowski scored on the Bucs opening drive when all Bucs WRs were lined up on the left with Gronk isolated on the right against just 1 defender. His 2nd TD was from 1 yard out after a play-action fake to Leonard Fournette.
Gronk has been looking spry through 2 weeks with multiple scores in both games and should continue to be deployed as a no brainer TE1 behind this offensive machine led by Hall of Famer Tom Brady.
Week 1
QB Tom Brady knew where to go when he had to make a play, because he had been there so many times before. He just looked for Gronk. Brady’s longtime teammate caught all 8 targets for 90 yards and 2 TDs. Both scores came in the red zone, from 2 and 11 yards out.

It doesn’t appear that Gronkowski’s encore after a short-lived retirement is going the way of TE Jason Witten’s farewell return. In Witten’s case, we could just remember the greatness that he used to have. Gronk has shown that he is still Gronk, which is very good.

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • Gronkowski returned to the league following 1 year in retirement. The Pats dealt him to the Bucs in April of 2020.
  • Normally playing hurt, Gronk wasn’t even listed on the injury report. Good health — and a reunion with Tom Brady — helped Gronk post 77-45-623-7 as the TE8.
  • High pass volume clearly helped. Tampa Bay ranked 3rd in pass rate (62.9%); Brady ranked 2nd in raw attempts (610).
  • The 58.4% catch rate was certainly a disappointment. Chalk it up to some combination of rust/natural decline.
  • Gronk caught a strong 62% of his contested targets. His drop rate was only 5.4%.
  • Still, he wasn’t exactly consistent. He fell shy of just 8 PPR points 7 times.
  • He saw 17.9% of Tampa Bay’s red zone targets (14) — 2nd most on the team behind Mike Evans.
  • Chris Godwin missed 4 full games with several injuries. Gronk’s production wasn’t dependent on an absent Godwin, though: The former Patriot tallied 14-8-122-1 over that span.
  • In 4 full games alongside O.J. Howard (Weeks 1-4, torn Achilles), Gronk was out-targeted 14-19. Gronk saw a team target share of just 9% over that stretch. Compare that to 13.8% without Howard.
  • Howard (and Cameron Brate) returns for another year with the Bucs. But his effectiveness is a question mark coming off such a serious injury.
  • Evans, Godwin and Antonio Brown (who joined in the middle of last season) all return for another go-around. Don’t bank on Gronk seeing nearly 80 targets for the 2nd straight season. His history also says we should expect some missed time in ’21. Gronk missed 14 games from 2016-2018.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line

After a year off, Gronkowski, 32, reminded us that he’s still a fantasy-relevant TE. While an O.J. Howard injury helped, Gronk retained his scoring dominance with a 15.5% TD rate (7 on just 45 catches). He should remain a red zone weapon in 2021.

Look for his volume to come down, though, with Chris Godwin, Mike Evans and Antonio Brown all returning for 2021. Gronk will also retain a high risk of injury, despite the clean 2020. He’s not one of our top TE targets.

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Bucs TE Rob Gronkowski (back) is active for tonight's game vs. the Giants. He's played just 6 snaps since Week 3, so he's a risk/reward fantasy play.

View all Rob Gronkowski Shark Bites »

The Bucs are "optimistic" about TE Rob Gronkowski's chances of playing vs. the Bears tonight, according to The Athletic's Greg Auman. Gronk was a full-go in practice on Thursday and Friday before sitting out on Saturday. He and HC Bruce Arians were optimistic about Gronkowski's status throughout the week. We'll get the Bucs' inactives around 7 pm ET tonight.

View all Rob Gronkowski Shark Bites »

Bucs TE Rob Gronkowski (back) is listed as questionable for Monday night's game vs. the Giants. After putting in full practices on Thursday and Friday, he didn't practice at all on Saturday. It's unclear if that was a planned day off or a setback. HC Bruce Arians called Gronk a game-time decision, along with the rest of the Bucs' "questionable" players. It's a tough spot for fantasy owners with the Monday kickoff. We'll look for further updates on Gronkowski's status.

View all Rob Gronkowski Shark Bites »

Bucs TE Rob Gronkowski (back) was a full participant in Thursday's practice. That puts him on track to return for Monday night's game vs. the Giants. Gronk lasted just 6 snaps when he last tried to return back in Week 8, so he checks in as a risk/reward Week 11 fantasy play.

View all Rob Gronkowski Shark Bites »

Bucs TE Rob Gronkowski (back) is out for Sunday's game vs. Washington. HC Bruce Arians said earlier this week that Gronk is 2-3 weeks away from being back to 100%. TEs Cameron Brate and O.J. Howard have basically been splitting work with Gronkowski out, leaving them both as just TE2s.

View all Rob Gronkowski Shark Bites »

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