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Stefon Diggs - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsStefon Diggs's Basic Stats

Stefon Diggs
ADP: 4.1
Bye: 14
Experience: 9
Age: 30.6
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 191
40 Time: 4.46
Speed Score: 97.20

SPARQx (Rank): 100.00 (37%)
Burst Score (Rank): 117.00 (28%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.35 (37%)
Catch Radius (Rank): 9.94 (40%)

Stefon Diggs's Weekly Outlook

Week 1 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
5.6 65.5 0.44 9
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
6.8 85.1 0.6 12

Stefon Diggs's 2024 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#22 Wide Receiver

236.6 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
4.1 89.6 1048 7.04 0 0

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsStefon Diggs's Preseason Player Analysis

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Bottom Line

Diggs was successful with Josh Allen and the Bills as the primary target. But his output grinded to a halt after the bye week, failing to put up a top-24 WR game.

A fresh start with the Texans should benefit him, though the situation is more crowded with Nico Collins, Tank Dell, Joe Mixon, and Dalton Schultz rounding out the weapons for C.J. Stroud.

Diggs is still only 30 years old, though. With a high-powered offense led by OC Bobby Slowik, Diggs should put up consistent WR2 numbers.

What We Learned Last Year

  • Diggs posted a season-long line of 107-1,183-8 (17 games).
  • He reached 150+ targets, 100+ catches, 1,100+ yards, and 8+ TDs in all four seasons in Buffalo.
  • However, Diggs’ 10.7 yards per catch, 67.5% catch rate, and 1.76 yards per route run last year all fell well below his career averages.
  • Diggs’ production was also lopsided. Buffalo fired OC Ken Dorsey before Week 11.
    • With Dorsey, Diggs averaged 10.2 targets, 7.3 catches, 86.8 yards, and .7 TDs per game.
    • Diggs finished as a top-15 PPR WR in seven of ten games with Dorsey.
    • Under fill-in OC Joe Brady, Diggs averaged 8.3 targets, 4.9 catches, 43.1 yards, and .11 TDs per game.
    • He scored once and hit 80 yards once over that stretch. Diggs finished WR45 or worse in five of seven regular season games with Brady.
  • He ranked as the PPR WR9 in total fantasy points (258.1) and WR15 in points per game (9.9).
  • He missed no games due to injury, his third straight healthy season.
  • He had five top-12 finishes. He also had eight WR37 or worse finishes.
  • Diggs’ target share improved from 28.0% in 2022 (12th-best among WRs) to 30.0% (fourth-best among WRs).
  • Among 92 WRs with 40+ targets, Diggs ranked
    • 20th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade
    • 27th in yards per route run (1.99)
    • 56th in average target depth (10.8).
  • Among those same WRs, Diggs was 41st in average separation yards (2.8) per NFL Next Gen Stats.

What to Expect in 2024

  • Diggs was traded to the Texans and signed a one-year deal worth $22.52 million with $20.805 million guaranteed. His $22.52 million per year ranks 15th among WRs.
  • Diggs will enter his first season under HC DeMeco Ryans and OC Bobby Slowik.
  • The Texans are expected to perform similarly to last season. They have the highest win total in the AFC South at 9.5 wins on most sportsbooks.
  • They also have the eighth-highest odds to win the Super Bowl at +1600 on most sportsbooks, best in the division.
  • Diggs enters his ninth season at 30 years old. According to our aging curve research, the average WR with Digg’s career will produce between 85% and 93% of his peak value at age-30.
  • Diggs will face stiff target competition this season from Nico Collins and Tank Dell. Both guys ranked top-16 among 80 qualifying WRs in both yards per route run and Pro Football Focus receiving grade. (Diggs ranked 20th and 26th.)

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Stefon Diggs, WR HOU

11:03am EDT 4/3/24

Stefon Diggs trade shakes up two offenses

According to multiple reports, the Bills are sending WR Stefon Diggs to the Texans. Buffalo is also sending a 2024 sixth-round pick and 2025 fifth-rounder to Houston, while getting back only a second-round pick in 2025. Diggs' production fell off late last season after the Bills switched offensive coordinators. Now 30 and in a new offense, Diggs will have to show he's not in decline. He'll add the challenge of splitting targets with Houston's emergent young wideouts. Nico Collins (seventh) and Tank Dell (12th) both ranked among the top 12 WRs in PPR points per game last season, with rookie QB C.J. Stroud. The Diggs addition obviously lowers the target-share ceiling for all three wideouts. We'll also have to see exactly how Houston plans to deploy them. Diggs spent 35.7% of his pass snaps in the slot last year; 34.2% the year before. He topped 30% in that category for three of his four Buffalo seasons, surpassed only by his 2016 sophomore season (62.9%). Collins spent 20.1% of his time in the slot last year; Dell 28.7%. We'd bet on all three moving around the formation some. But Diggs could wind up primarily replacing Robert Woods (55.5% slot) and Noah Brown (39.3%). The trio gives Stroud one of the league's best WR groups and boosts his fantasy upside. The QB already sat sixth at the position in Underdog Fantasy ADP, though. That adds risk to Stroud as a draft target and gives him little room to move up. QB Josh Allen, meanwhile, has lost his top two wideouts (Gabe Davis the other) while adding only WR Curtis Samuel this offseason. The dearth of remaining talent adds risk to his fantasy outlook, though you shouldn't expect the high-level rusher to move significantly down our rankings. As for other affected players: Diggs' departure leaves target share available for TE Dalton Kincaid and Khalil Shakir. His arrival in Houston makes life tougher for TE Dalton Schultz. He already sat just 13th among TEs in best ball ADP, though, and will likely fall further following this trade. Be sure to check our rankings for your format to see all the effects of this high-impact deal.

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Dynasty Overview View WR Dynasty Rankings »

Stefon Diggs, WR HOU
Dynasty MVP 88.2
Position Rank #83 WR
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
302
456
729
Dynasty Write-up
In 2023, Diggs seemed on track for another high-end WR1 season. Then came a dramatic second-half drop in production. Come April, Diggs was shipped off to Houston for a 2025 Round 2 pick. At 30, his best ball is likely behind him. He's also positioned for a dip in targets. Plus, a revised deal puts Diggs on schedule for a contract year.
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