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Sterling Shepard - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Sterling Shepard


#66 Wide Receiver

93 Projected Points

ADP: 14.1
Bye: 10
Experience: 5 Yr(s)
Age: 27
Height: 5'10"
Weight: 194
40 Time: 4.43

Weekly Outlook

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Week 2 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
5 59 0.3 7.7
Weekly Writeup
Shepard was reportedly QB Daniel Jones' favorite target throughout training camp -- and the opened the season with a big 7-113-1 line on a team-high 9 targets. He's the best fantasy bet among Giants WRs until proven otherwise.

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
4.5 55 0.3 7.5
Week 1
Shepard impressed in the Week 1 defeat to the Broncos, finishing with a 7-113-1 stat line on 9 targets. He made a wonderful catch and stayed in bounds and tiptoed his way 37 yards down the sidelines for the first score of the season for the Giants, giving them a rare lead that wouldn’t last. He led all players in the game in receptions and yards, tying two others for most targets.
It was a turn-back-the-clock type of game for Shepard, who had only one 100-yard receiving game last year. It’s promising to see QB Daniel Jones look to him more than anyone else, and with the Giants likely throwing more than most teams, this could turn into a productive season. Assuming he stays healthy that is, which in of itself is a tough proposition.

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • Shepard led the Giants with 24.1% target share over his 11 full games last season. Evan Engram checked in behind him at 22.7%, with Darius Slayton next at 17.1%.
  • Shepard has lost 4+ games to injury in 3 of his past 4 seasons. Turf toe cost him 4 contests in 2020.
  • Shepard has still averaged at least 5.4 receptions in each of those years.
  • Shepard produced a career-high 1.77 yards per route run in 2020, despite career lows in averaged depth of target (8.6), yards after catch per reception (3.1) and yards per catch (9.9).
  • A career-best 73.3% catch rate played a key role, rising vs. his 68.7% rate of 2019 and 61.7% of 2018 (before Daniel Jones arrived).
  • Shepard has seen his slot snaps decrease every season. He played in the slot 85.3% of the time as a rookie, according to PFF, then 83.3%, 58.7%, 46.8% and 32.2% the past 4 years.
  • The Giants signed Golden Tate last offseason to be the primary slot man. In the 4 games he missed, though, Shepard saw 73.9%, 65.7%, 34% and 41.4% slot snaps.
  • He’s entering the 3rd season of a 4-year, $41 million contract.
  • The Giants have added Kenny Golladay on the outside, 1st-round WR Kadarius Toney and TE Kyle Rudolph, in addition to getting Saquon Barkley back from injury. Tate is gone. The shuffling on offense could leave Shepard’s role unclear until the depth chart settles out.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

We might not know exactly where Shepard will line up and how often until the regular season starts. The readiness of rookie Kadarius Toney figures to play a key role, as Toney looks like a prime candidate for slot work. But the Giants clearly like Shepard in a variety of spots. His playing time and usage remained up with the coaching change. Kenny Golladay’s arrival, however, means Shepard will probably need a teammate injury if he’s to snag the team target-share lead again. Shepard’s a fine PPR stash. But when you combine the new target challengers with a Giants offense that likely doesn’t want to pass at high volume, it’s tough to get excited about Shepard’s ceiling.

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Giants WR Sterling Shepard is having an impressive camp and has been QB Daniel Jones' favorite target, according to insider Matt Lombardo. And that was reportedly the case even before WR Kenny Golladay went down with his hamstring injury. "The expectation entering this season was that free agent newcomer Kenny Golladay would vault to the top of Jones’ target hierarchy, and even before the high-priced addition suffered a hamstring injury last week, that just didn’t happen," Lombardo writes. "Meanwhile, Shepard has consistently been making plays, and consistently been among Jones’ first reads, perhaps a harbinger for the kind of season ahead for the longest-tenured Giant." Shepard is never an exciting fantasy pick but has finished as a top 34 WR in PPR points per game in 3 of 5 seasons -- and never finished lower than 45th. He's a strong bet to beat his current WR64 ADP.

View all Sterling Shepard Shark Bites »

Sterling Shepard is expected to be the Giants' primary slot receiver this season, according to The New York Post's Ryan Dunleavy. “I love the slot,” Shepard said from training camp on Tuesday. “It’s where I’m super comfortable. I just like the space that you have. I’m able to go all the way across the field, come back out, do the short-intermediate routes, which I enjoy running.” Shepard played 82% of his snaps in the slot as a rookie back in 2016. That rate has steadily declined over the past 4 seasons, bottoming out at 34% last year. Shepard's most efficient seasons in terms of yards per target came in 2017 and 2018, when he played 74% and then 55% of his snaps in the slot. Consider more slot snaps good news for Shepard's 2021 outlook. But we'll have to see if he stays on the field and kicks outside when the Giants go to 2-WR sets. This news also means New York's 3-WR sets figure to feature Kenny Golladay and Darius Slayton on the outside. Rookie Kadarius Toney is expected to play mostly in the slot, so it looks like he's is line to open the season no better than 4th on the depth chart.

View all Sterling Shepard Shark Bites »

Giants WR Sterling Shepard (toe) is active for tonight's game against the Eagles. It'll be his 1st action since Week 2. Shepard is a low-upside fantasy play in New York's struggling offense.

View all Sterling Shepard Shark Bites »

The Newark Star-Ledger's Zack Rosenblatt believes Giants WR Sterling Shepard (toe) is "unlikely" to play against Washington on Sunday. He's eligible to come off IR this week, but a Week 7 return looks more likely. Darius Slayton, Golden Tate and Evan Engram will continue to operate as the top 3 options in the Giants' passing game.

View all Sterling Shepard Shark Bites »

The Giants expect WR Sterling Shepard to return to practice this week, according to the team's official website. Shepard missed the past 3 games with a toe injury. HC Joe Judge said he wants to see Shepard practice before determining whether the wideout will be ready to come off IR for Sunday's game against Washington. We'll watch his progress. Even if Shepard doesn't play in Week 6, he's worth a look as a potential Week 6 waiver pickup in leagues that saw him dropped.

View all Sterling Shepard Shark Bites »

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