Bottom Line

Ertz was sitting third among TEs in PPR points and fourth in non-PPR through Week 9 last season.

But he went down with a torn left ACL and MCL in Week 10 that has his availability for the start of the 2023 campaign in question. He turns 33 in November. And QB Kyler Murray is unlikely to be ready for the start of the season.

Those concerns make Ertz no better than a TE3 option in best ball drafts and not worth a pick at all in most lineup-setting fantasy leagues.

What We Learned Last Year

• Ertz’s 2022 season ended on Nov. 13 with a torn ACL and MCL in his left knee. He had surgery a few days later.
• In nine games before going down, Ertz totaled:
  • 68 targets
  • 46 catches
  • 394 yards
  • 4 TDs
• Those marks ranked second, second, sixth, and third among TEs.
• Ertz’s 19.5% target share over those first nine weeks ranked seventh at the position.
• He sat third among TEs in PPR points and fourth in non-PPR through Week 9.
• Ertz certainly benefitted from injuries/suspensions to Arizona’s WRs.
  • DeAndre Hopkins was suspended for the first six games of the season.
  • Marquise Brown missed Weeks 7, 8, and 9 with a foot injury.
  • Rondale Moore missed the first three weeks with a hamstring injury.
• Among 34 TEs with 40+ targets last season, Ertz ranked:
  • 31st in yards per target
  • 29th in yards per route
  • 19th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade
• Ertz was traded from Philadelphia to Arizona in October 2021. In 11 games with the Cardinals that season, he averaged 7.4 targets, 5.1 catches, 52.2 yards, and 0.3 TDs. Ertz ranked fourth among TEs in PPR points and sixth in non-PPR over that span.

What to Expect in 2023

• Ertz said in December that he “hopes” to be ready for the start of the 2023 season.
• He shared a similar sentiment in February: “The goal is always to be there Week 1. It’s an adaptable goal. When I am out there, I am going to be myself. I’m not going to go out there early, put the team at risk when I’m 80 percent. I need to be at my best for this organization to be successful.”
• Ertz will turn 33 in November. Our aging-curve research shows that, on average, TEs produce at just 70% of their peak at age-33.
• The Cardinals released WR DeAndre Hopkins in late May. He averaged 9.1 targets per game across the last three seasons in Arizona.
• Marquise Brown and Rondale Moore return as the team’s likely top 2 WRs. Greg Dortch is also back. And the Cardinals added WR Michael Wilson in the 3rd round of this spring’s draft. It’s an underwhelming WR corps.
• TE Trey McBride heads into his 2nd NFL season after posting a 29-265-1 line as a rookie. He caught just 3 balls in Ertz’s 9 healthy games and ranked dead last among 34 qualifying TEs in Pro Football Focus’ receiving grades. McBride was a 2nd-rounder last year and is certainly a candidate to take a leap in 2023. But he has a lot to prove.
• Ertz will play under a new coaching staff this season after HC Kliff Kingsbury was fired. The Cardinals hired former Eagles DC Jonathan Gannon as HC and named Drew Petzing OC. The 35-year-old Petzing spent the past 9 seasons working under Kevin Stefanski in Minnesota and then Cleveland but has no experience calling plays at any level.
• QB Kyler Murray is working his way back from December’s torn ACL and meniscus in his right knee. He’s unlikely to be ready for the start of the season and could miss the first couple of months. QB Colt McCoy is the favorite to start for Arizona until Murray is ready.