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Zach Ertz - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Zach Ertz
PHI

TE PHI

#28 Tight End

65 Projected Points

ADP: 18.12
Bye: 14
Experience: 8 Yr(s)
Age: 30
Height: 6'5"
Weight: 248
40 Time: 4.67

2021 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#28 Tight End

65 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
18.12 41 419 4 0

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

3d Projection

Med Floor

55.3

DS Projection

65

Consensus

38 other sites
131.3

High Ceiling

107.3

Ceiling Likelihood

Medium
How likely they will reach their ceiling projection

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • Everything got worse for Ertz in 2020.
  • His target share fell to its lowest level since 2014, his 2nd year in the league. After seeing shares of 19.5%, 26% and 22% the past 3 seasons, Ertz dipped to 17.6% for his 11 games in 2020. That dipped to 15% in the 5 full games he and Dallas Goedert shared.
  • Just 8 TEs league wide reached 15% target share for the full season, though.
  • Ertz posted career lows in yards per catch (9.3), catch rate (50%), yards per target (4.7) and Pro Football Focus grade (57.3). He ranked 48th in receiving grade among 55 TEs who saw 20+ targets.
  • New Eagles HC Nick Sirianni spent the past 3 years coordinating a Colts offense that ranked 4th, 4th and 12th in TE target share.
  • Just 1 of those 3 Colts teams found 2 TEs finishing among the team’s top 5 in targets.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Ertz remains a trade candidate this summer. If he stays in Philly, he’ll likely head into his 9th season as the #2 TE. That marks a steep fall for a guy who was going top-5 at the position in 2020 drafts, but it wouldn’t be a death sentence. HC Nick Sirianni brings a TE-friendly past, and Philly’s shallow WR corps -- with unproven youngsters atop the depth chart -- increases the target opportunity for the TEs. Ertz looks solid as a late TE3 in best-ball drafting right now. At worst, he’ll be the 2nd TE in a positive situation for opportunity. There’s handcuff upside in case of another Goedert injury, and potential for a big boost if Ertz gets traded. We’ll see how/whether his situation changes as we move into and through summer.

 

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Eagles GM Howie Roseman said Wednesday that he expects TE Zach Ertz to be on Philly's roster when the season begins, according to ESPN's Tim McManus. We wouldn't expect to hear anything different from Roseman, regardless of where trade talks might be on the veteran player. The fact that Ertz hasn't gone anywhere yet, though, means we should draft as though Ertz will be an Eagle come Week 1. His continued presence would certainly affect Dallas Goedert's fantasy ceiling, but we expect the younger TE to emerge as Philly's clear leader at the position this season. Even if their target counts sit close together, Goedert is the much better bet for a deeper average target depth and for yards after the catch.

View all Zach Ertz Shark Bites »

Eagles insider Howard Eskin hears that there's now a "great chance" TE Zach Ertz will be on the team for the "start of the season." That last part is noteworthy because it leaves open the possibility of an in-season trade. Still, Ertz sticking around for any number of games would hurt TE Dallas Goedert's fantasy value. In their 7 shared games together last year, Ertz out-targeted Goedert 45 to 42. We'd expect that to swing in Goedert's favor in 2021. But his chances of finishing near the top of his position in targets would be slim with Ertz to contend with.

View all Zach Ertz Shark Bites »

Eagles TE Zach Ertz didn't report for voluntary workouts on Monday and isn't expected to take part in the offseason program, according to insider Jeff McLane. He knows he's not part of the team's 2021 plans and is waiting until he's traded or released. The Eagles have seemingly been looking to trade him for a few months but haven't found any takers. Ertz is still just 30 but is coming off an ugly 2020 season that saw him rank 31st in yards per route run and 30th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade among 34 TEs with 40+ targets. We'll see where he ends up, but Ertz isn't an attractive draft target right now. Meanwhile, we've already projected Eagles TE Dallas Goedert as if Ertz is gone.

View all Zach Ertz Shark Bites »

The Eagles have given TE Zach Ertz permission to seek a trade, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. The relationship between these 2 sides has been cold since they refused to agree to a contract extension last summer. Ertz didn't do his trade value any favors by missing 5 games and averaging just 30.5 yards in the other 11 last season. The 30-year-old looked like a guy running out of gas. We'll see where the situation goes, but consider Ertz just a low-end TE2 in fantasy drafts for now. TE Dallas Goedert, meanwhile, will be a good bet for new career highs in 2021 if Ertz departs.

View all Zach Ertz Shark Bites »

Eagles TE Zach Ertz (ankle) is expected to return for Sunday’s game against the Packers. HC Doug Pederson said Friday that he’ll “have to be smart” with how much Ertz plays. In something less than a full-time role, Ertz isn’t a viable Week 13 fantasy play.

View all Zach Ertz Shark Bites »

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