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Zach Ertz - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsZach Ertz's Basic Stats

Zach Ertz
ADP: 19.3
Bye: 14
Experience: 10 Yr(s)
Age: 32.8
Height: 6'5"
Weight: 250
40 Time: 4.76
Speed Score: 97.80
SPARQx (Rank): 113.80 (72%)
Burst Score (Rank): 119.10 (64%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.55 (53%)
Catch Radius (Rank): 10.05 (61%)

Zach Ertz's Weekly Outlook

Week 5 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
4.2 34.8 0.2 4.7
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
3.3 33.7 0.3 5.2

Zach Ertz's 2023 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#11 Tight End

83.3 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
19.3 52.2 539 4.9 0.8 0

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsZach Ertz's Preseason Player Analysis

View TE Fantasy Rankings »
Bottom Line

Ertz was sitting third among TEs in PPR points and fourth in non-PPR through Week 9 last season.

But he went down with a torn left ACL and MCL in Week 10 that has his availability for the start of the 2023 campaign in question. He turns 33 in November. And QB Kyler Murray is unlikely to be ready for the start of the season.

Those concerns make Ertz no better than a TE3 option in best ball drafts and not worth a pick at all in most lineup-setting fantasy leagues.


What We Learned Last Year
  • Ertz’s 2022 season ended on Nov. 13 with a torn ACL and MCL in his left knee. He had surgery a few days later.
  • In nine games before going down, Ertz totaled:
    • 68 targets
    • 46 catches
    • 394 yards
    • 4 TDs
  • Those marks ranked second, second, sixth, and third among TEs.
  • Ertz’s 19.5% target share over those first nine weeks ranked seventh at the position.
  • He sat third among TEs in PPR points and fourth in non-PPR through Week 9.
  • Ertz certainly benefitted from injuries/suspensions to Arizona’s WRs.
    • DeAndre Hopkins was suspended for the first six games of the season.
    • Marquise Brown missed Weeks 7, 8, and 9 with a foot injury.
    • Rondale Moore missed the first three weeks with a hamstring injury.
  • Among 34 TEs with 40+ targets last season, Ertz ranked:
    • 31st in yards per target
    • 29th in yards per route
    • 19th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade
  • Ertz was traded from Philadelphia to Arizona in October 2021. In 11 games with the Cardinals that season, he averaged 7.4 targets, 5.1 catches, 52.2 yards, and 0.3 TDs. Ertz ranked fourth among TEs in PPR points and sixth in non-PPR over that span.

What to Expect in 2023
  • Ertz said in December that he “hopes” to be ready for the start of the 2023 season.
  • He shared a similar sentiment in February: “The goal is always to be there Week 1. It’s an adaptable goal. When I am out there, I am going to be myself. I’m not going to go out there early, put the team at risk when I’m 80 percent. I need to be at my best for this organization to be successful.”
  • Ertz will turn 33 in November. Our aging-curve research shows that, on average, TEs produce at just 70% of their peak at age-33.
  • The Cardinals released WR DeAndre Hopkins in late May. He averaged 9.1 targets per game across the last three seasons in Arizona.
  • Marquise Brown and Rondale Moore return as the team’s likely top 2 WRs. Greg Dortch is also back. And the Cardinals added WR Michael Wilson in the 3rd round of this spring’s draft. It’s an underwhelming WR corps.
  • TE Trey McBride heads into his 2nd NFL season after posting a 29-265-1 line as a rookie. He caught just 3 balls in Ertz’s 9 healthy games and ranked dead last among 34 qualifying TEs in Pro Football Focus’ receiving grades. McBride was a 2nd-rounder last year and is certainly a candidate to take a leap in 2023. But he has a lot to prove.
  • Ertz will play under a new coaching staff this season after HC Kliff Kingsbury was fired. The Cardinals hired former Eagles DC Jonathan Gannon as HC and named Drew Petzing OC. The 35-year-old Petzing spent the past 9 seasons working under Kevin Stefanski in Minnesota and then Cleveland but has no experience calling plays at any level.
  • QB Kyler Murray is working his way back from December’s torn ACL and meniscus in his right knee. He’s unlikely to be ready for the start of the season and could miss the first couple of months. QB Colt McCoy is the favorite to start for Arizona until Murray is ready.

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Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Marquise Brown, WR ARI

7:38pm EDT 9/17/23

Marquise Brown scores, Zach Ertz sees a lot of work again in Week 2

Cardinals WR Marquise Brown led all pass-catchers with 10 targets on Sunday, corralling 6 catches for 54 yards and 1 TD in Week 2. TE Zach Ertz once again saw major involvement, recording 6 catches on 8 targets for 56 yards. While there aren’t many reasons to be excited about this offense, it’s becoming apparent who the top receiving options are for QB Joshua Dobbs. Managers in deeper leagues in need of TE help ought to consider picking up Ertz off of the waiver wire. Both players will be intriguing options next week vs. the Cowboys.

View all Marquise Brown Shark Bites »

Cardinals TE Zach Ertz led the team with 10 targets in Sunday’s loss vs. the Commanders, hauling in 6 catches for 21 yards. WRs Marquise Brown and Rondale Moore each saw 3 catches for 28 yards and 33 yards, respectively. Hopes for this Arizona offense aren’t particularly high as QB Kyler Murray continues to work his way back from a torn ACL. Still, a 33.3% target share from Ertz is a remarkable feat worth remembering for those in need of TE help out on the waiver wire. We’ll see if this usage continues in Week 2 vs. the Rams.

View all Zach Ertz Shark Bites »

Cardinals TE Zach Ertz (knee) is active for today’s game vs. the Commanders. It marks an impressive return from last November’s torn ACL and MCL. We’d be surprised if Ertz was ready for a full slate of snaps, though. He’s not a viable Week 1 fantasy play.

View all Zach Ertz Shark Bites »

Cardinals TE Zach Ertz (knee) is expected to play vs. the Commanders today, per NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. It'll be Ertz's first game action since November's multi-ligament knee injury. Ertz is not a viable Week 1 fantasy play. His presence should also knock TE Trey McBride out of fantasy consideration.

View all Zach Ertz Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View TE Dynasty Rankings »

Zach Ertz, TE ARI
Dynasty MVP 25.3
Position Rank #70 TE
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
93
135
180
Dynasty Write-up
In 2022, Ertz suffered a mid-season ACL/MCL tear. The 32-year-old returns for 2023, but there’s not much fantasy upside to chase on a hapless Cardinals squad. This is likely Ertz’s final season in Arizona.
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