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Zach Wilson - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Zach Wilson
NYJ

QB NYJ

#28 Quarterback

315 Projected Points

ADP: 17.2
Bye: 6
Experience: 0 Yr(s)
Age: 22
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 210
40 Time: 4.67

Weekly Outlook

3d Projection

Med Floor

11.7

DS Projection

15.6

Consensus

38 other sites
17

High Ceiling

21.8

Rest of
Season

17.5

Week 3 Projections
Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
212 1.2 1.1 13 15.6
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
230 1.3 1 12 17.5
Week 1
Wilson was under constant duress from the Panthers defense throughout his debut. Pro Football Focus charted pressure on 51.2% of Wilson’s drop backs. That was 2nd highest among 32 QBs with 10+ drop backs in Week 1. And the rookie struggled when pressured, completing just 5 of 16 passes.

The situation doesn’t project to get better anytime soon, especially after the Jets lost LT Mekhi Becton for the next 4 to 6 weeks to a knee injury. Simply put, it’s going to be tough for Wilson to produce as a reliable fantasy starter in the short term.

We did like what we saw from him in the opener, though. He displayed plus arm strength and playmaking ability outside of structure. Both assets were on display on his 1st TD, when Wilson escaped the pocket and fired a dart on the run to WR Corey Davis. Wilson’s 2nd TD was a perfectly timed throw to Davis on an out route.

The long-term outlook here is bright. But Wilson is no better than a low-end QB2 in fantasy right now.

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • A 3-star recruit, Wilson started games as a true freshman at BYU. He impressed right away with 1,578 yards, 8.9 YPA and 12 TDs to 3 INTs (7 games).
  • In early 2019, Wilson underwent surgery for a torn right labrum that first surfaced in high school. That October, he suffered a fractured thumb.
  • Predictably, Wilson’s numbers declined in ’19: 7.5 YPA, a 62.4% completion rate and 11 TDs to 9 INTs (9 games).
  • Across 12 starts in a healthy 2020, Wilson averaged a silly 11.0 YPA and notched the 4th best adjusted completion rate in the nation (80.3%). He tossed only 3 INTs, and upon further review, only 1 was a poor decision.
  • At 6’2, 214 pounds, Wilson’s on the slight side for the position. That didn’t limit him in 2020, though, when he showed top-end accuracy and arm talent.
  • The Jets traded Sam Darnold to Carolina in April. Weeks later, they selected Wilson with the 2nd overall pick. He’ll start immediately.
  • The Jets have a promising WR corps that includes Denzel Mims, Jamison Crowder, Corey Davis and rookie Round 2 pick Elijah Moore. Athletic TE Chris Herndon — only 25 — still offers some promise in a contract year.
  • Wilson will learn under new HC Robert Saleh and OC Mike LaFleur.
  • LaFleur has followed Kyle Shanahan from Cleveland to Atlanta to San Francisco since 2014. He’s held roles like offensive intern (Cleveland), offensive assistant (Falcons) and pass game coordinator/WR coach (49ers). LaFleur, brother of Packers HC Matt LaFleur, is only 34.
  • Look for the Shanahan influence to shine through, meaning a heavy dose of pre-snap motion and play-action passing for Wilson. Those should help play to his strengths.
  • Wilson showed decent mobility in college, but we don’t expect anything close to high-end production there in 2020. Current projections have him for 239-2 rushing.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Wilson came out of nowhere to post a huge 2020. While poor competition helped, Wilson simply dominated with his ability to put the ball where it needs to be both inside and outside of the pocket.

So the future looks bright here. But as a rookie playing under a new coaching staff — in a division with 3 strong defenses — we’re keeping 2021 expectations low.

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Jets QB Zach Wilson has made big strides from spring workouts to now, The Athletic's Connor Hughes writes. "He has a much firmer understanding of the playbook and is much more comfortable within this scheme," Hughes says. "That’s allowing his athleticism and passing ability to shine." Wilson has looked good this preseason, especially when completing 9 of 11 passes for 128 yards and 2 scores vs. the Packers last week. (And he did that without WR Elijah Moore.). Wilson certainly looks capable of emerging as a spot-start fantasy option as a rookie.

View all Zach Wilson Shark Bites »

Jets QB Zach Wilson enjoyed a nice outing in Saturday's 2nd preseason contest at Green Bay. He completed 9 of 11 passes for 128 yards and a pair of TDs, finding TE Tyler Kroft for scores both early in the 2nd quarter and inside the final 2 minutes of the 1st half. Those were Kroft's only 2 targets of the game. WR Corey Davis claimed 6 targets among Wilson's other 10 attempts (including 1 negated by penalty). RB Tevin Coleman, WR Jamison Crowder, WR Jeff Smith and TE Trevon Wesco garnered 1 target apiece.

View all Zach Wilson Shark Bites »

Jets QB Zach Wilson has signed his rookie contract and reported to camp on Thursday. He ended up missing just a couple of days, so there shouldn't be any fantasy impact here. Wilson be under center for the Jets' opener vs. the Panthers on September 12.

View all Zach Wilson Shark Bites »

Jets QB Zach Wilson was absent for the 1st day of training camp on Tuesday as his agent and the team continue to work on his rookie contract. We'd be surprised if the standoff lasted much longer considering there's not much negotiation to be done with rookie deals nowadays, but we'll continue to monitor the situation. Wilson is coming off a strong start in OTAs and minicamp.

View all Zach Wilson Shark Bites »

The Jets selected BYU QB Zach Wilson with the 2nd overall pick of the 2021 NFL Draft. Wilson enjoyed a breakout 2020 with 3,692 yards, 33 TDs and 3 INTs across 12 games. He added a 73.5% completion rate while performing as one of the nation’s most accurate QBs. The low level of competition he faced wasn’t ideal, but Wilson (6’3, 212) truly stood out as a special passer. He also rebounded nicely from an injury-riddled 2019 that began with right labrum surgery in January. Now, he heads to a strong fit with the Jets and new OC Mike LaFleur, whose offense will take advantage of Wilson’s movement skills. He’s a heavy favorite to be under center come Week 1 and could provide some spot-start value this season.

View all Zach Wilson Shark Bites »

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