Curtis Samuel - Fantasy Points Outlook

The Bills are signing WR Curtis Samuel to a three-year, $24 million deal, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter. The contract can be worth up to $30 million and includes $15 million in guarantees. It almost certainly locks Samuel in as the No. 2 WR alongside Stefon Diggs. It's worth noting, however, that he's getting significantly smaller annual averages than Gabe Davis (Jaguars) and Darnell Mooney (Falcons). Each of those free-agent WRs got deals with $13 million annual averages and more guaranteed money. For now, Samuel looks poised to battle TE Dalton Kincaid for the No. 2 spot in targets. Though we'll see whether Buffalo adds a WR early in the draft. Samuel presents intrigue in that his short-range game differs from the skill sets of Diggs and Davis, who spent the past four years in Buffalo. Samuel also played under Bills OC Joe Brady in Carolina in 2020, when he trailed Robbie Chosen and D.J. Moore by more than 20 targets apiece. Samuel did garner a career-high 41 carries that season, but the Panthers only got three games of RB Christian McCaffrey. For fantasy, Samuel looks interesting and obviously lands with an upside QB. But it's tough to like him as more than a high-WR4 to low-WR3. Samuel's short-range game makes him more attractive for lineup-setting leagues than best ball drafts. His arrival is also bad news for WR Khalil Shakir, who has spent 72% of his snaps in the slot over two seasons in Buffalo. Shakir can play outside as well. But you shouldn't consider him before the end of best ball drafts.

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Commanders WR Terry McLaurin managed no receptions on just 3 targets in Sunday's blowout loss to the Dolphins. And he wasn't happy about it. "I ran a lot of cardio today," he told reporters after the game. It's been a disappointing season for Washington's top wideout. Despite his offense leading the league in pass attempts entering Sunday and ranking ninth in passing yards, McLaurin was working on a career-low 57.8 yards per game. That's obviously coming down even further after Sunday's 0. WR Curtis Samuel tied with RB Antonio Gibson, and WR Jahan Dotson for the team lead with 5 targets. Samuel and Gibson caught four passes apiece, while Samuel led the team with 65 receiving yards. Washington's WRs don't look likely to help you a whole lot the rest of the way. After a Week 14 bye, the Commanders get the league's third-toughest schedule for WR scoring over the final three fantasy weeks. That includes matchups with the Jets and 49ers in the final two rounds of most fantasy playoffs.

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Commanders WR Curtis Samuel racked up 9 receptions for 100 yards in Thursday's loss to the Cowboys. He drew 27.3% of the team's targets, accounted for 32.1% of the receptions, and delivered 33.3% of the yards. No teammate exceeded 5 catches or 52 yards in the game. The big receiving line followed consecutive games that Samuel finished with just 6 and 5 receiving yards. He has reached 50 yards five times now in 11 games. But should we just chalk Thursday's numbers up to variance? Samuel's not likely to deliver another stat line that big over his final four fantasy outings. But he can be a low-level starting option the rest of the way. Samuel had caught 4+ passes in five straight games before missing Week 9 with an injury. Samuel came back for the mere three receptions across two games before the big one against Dallas. The Cowboys have been tough in coverage but also play outside WRs tougher than slot WRs. Week 13 will bring a Miami defense that has fared better against slot WRs than outside but also been a positive matchup for opponent WRs overall. Miami's offensive scoring ability also gives that game shootout potential -- or a chance Washington is chasing once again. Either case would drive up passing volume. Washington gets its bye in Week 14. But then come two more opponents (Rams and Jets) that allow more production to slot WRs than outside. A Week 17 matchup with San Francisco doesn't look good for anyone. Though Samuel's short average target depth (6.4 yards) could help his volume in another matchup that's likely to find the Commanders trailing. He carries some low-level upside in deeper leagues, as a WR3 or PPR flex. Just don't overrate Samuel's production in Dallas.

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Commanders WR Curtis Samuel was ejected for his role in a fight in the second quarter of Sunday's game vs. the Giants. He's unlikely to face any discipline beyond Week 11, but we'll keep an eye on the situation. Samuel was booted with one catch on two targets for five yards.

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