Matthew Stafford's TDs are Coming Down, and That Could be a Problem

Los Angeles Rams 2026 Overview

Schedule

Wins

Play Calling

Key Additions

• TE Max Klare

Key Departures

• None

Notable Coaching Changes

• OC Mike LaFleur out
• OC Nate Scheelhaase in

Matthew Stafford

2025 Role & Results

Top-Tier QB1 Numbers

Stafford racked up 4,707 yards, 46 TDs, and only 8 INTs in 17 games. His yardage and TD totals both led the league, and the TD mark set a new career high.

Even with just 1 rushing yard and 0 rushing TDs, Stafford finished second in both total fantasy points and points per game, with 10 weeks of QB12 or better and seven top-5 finishes.

Stafford finished worse than QB18 only twice.

Volume Was an Asset

Stafford carried the Rams' offense, finishing third league-wide in attempts (597). 

Stafford was especially dangerous near the goal line, pacing the league with 104 attempts inside the 20-yard line and 58 inside the 10-yard line. That volume turned into 33 red-zone TDs. Only one other QB, Jared Goff, reached 33 total passing TDs.

High TD Rate, YPA

Among 29 QBs with 300+ dropbacks, Stafford ranked:

• First in TD rate (7.7%)
• Tied for fifth in yards per attempt (7.9)
• 24th in adjusted completion rate (72.3%)

He also led the same sample in Pro Football Focus passing grade (91.7).

An Ideal Environment

This unit loved to attack downfield, with Stafford leading the league in average depth of target (9.8 yards) and total deep attempts (106). He finished fourth in deep passing rate (14.8% of his throws traveling 20+ yards downfield).

Puka Nacua and Davante Adams combined for a huge 55.1% target share, even with Adams missing three games (hamstring) and Nacua missing one (ankle).

The O-line stayed healthy, with four of five starters playing at least 74% of the snaps. That helped the Rams allow the second-lowest pressure rate (27.4%) and rank fifth in ESPN’s pass-block win rate.

Up and Down Trend Continues

Stafford's fantasy points per game tallies have seesawed since he arrived in Los Angeles:

• 2021: 24.3 (QB9)
• 2022: 16.8 (QB25)
• 2023: 20.1 (QB17)
• 2024: 17.0 (QB29)
• 2025: 24.7 (QB2)

Last year’s mark was the second highest of his 17-year career.

A Surprisingly Healthy Season

Stafford entered last season as a clear injury risk after suffering an aggravated disk in his back ahead of training camp, but he still played all 17 games.

It was the third straight season in which Stafford played at least 15 games and the second straight in which he lost no time to injury. Stafford’s only 2024 absence came in a Week 18 game he sat out because the team rested starters.

2026 Opportunity & Projection

No Major Changes to the Supporting Cast

Stafford returns the top 10 target earners from 2025, most critically Nacua and Adams. 

Nacua ranks second among WRs in yardage over the past three seasons, and Adams sits 14th. Together, they look like one of the league's top WR duos after combining for 12.2 catches, 163.4 yards, and 1.6 TDs per game in 2025.

The rest of the WR corps remains unproven, though. 

Jordan Whittington brings the size at 6'1, 202 pounds, but posted a lowly 18-171 receiving line in his second season. Konata Mumpfield tallied 10-92-1 as a Round 7 rookie, while incoming Round 6 pick CJ Daniels was a six-year college player who brings middling athleticism (6.07 Relative Athletic Score). 

So, there’s no clear No. 3 WR for the Rams. There's also evidence Stafford can survive a missing top target. He finished QB4 in the lone game without Nacua and QB3, QB16, and QB2 in games without Adams last year.

The Rams’ TE depth could also help overcome any issues at WR.

Colby Parkinson posted a 43-408-8 line in 2025 despite the Rams adding Round 2 TE Terrance Ferguson. Ferguson flashed as a downfield threat with 20.8 yards per catch on 12 receptions, but the Rams still made another big TE investment by taking Max Klare in Round 2 this year.

Klare broke out in his third season at Purdue, then finished third on Ohio State in catches and yards after transferring last year. Our prospect guru Shane Hallam compares Klare to Dallas TE Jake Ferguson.

Stafford also returns veteran TE Tyler Higbee. He’ll likely see a diminished role in his age-33 season after re-signing for just $3 million per year over the next two years. But the veteran TE supplies some security for Stafford when on the field.

The Rams’ O-line remains a strength, with all five starters back from a productive 2025 unit.

Another Ceiling Outcome is Unlikely

Because Stafford adds nothing as a runner, he'll need another highly efficient passing season to crack the top five again.

His TD rate is the obvious regression point. Stafford spiked to a career-high 7.7% last season after topping out at 6.8% in 2021, his first year in L.A. Including 2025, he’s averaged a more moderate 4.6% TD rate as a Ram.

Our current projections have him for a 5.8% TD rate, still above his career average of 4.8.

Risk Factors

Stafford’s outlook leans heavily on Nacua and Adams staying healthy. 

Adams has missed time with hamstring injuries in back-to-back seasons. Nacua missed only one game last season with an ankle injury but sat out five games with a PCL sprain in 2024.

The WR depth behind them remains unproven with Jordan Whittington, Konata Mumpfield, and CJ Daniels battling for the No. 3 role.

Kyren Williams

2025 Role & Results

Another Productive Season

Williams recorded 259 carries, 1,252 yards, and 10 TDs in 17 games. He hit 65 total yards in all but one game.

He added 36 catches, 281 receiving yards, and 3 receiving TDs.

Williams finished RB9 in total PPR points and 11th in points per game. He climbed to RB8 in half-PPR and ninth in PPG.

Williams delivered seven top-12 PPR fantasy finishes, with only three outside the top 25.

New Competition Emerges

Rams RB attempts climbed from 397 in 2024 to 413 last year, but Williams’ share shrank. His volume dipped to 15.2 carries per game after sitting at 19.0 in 2023 and 19.7 in 2024.

Blake Corum’s emergence drove the shift, as he averaged 8.5 carries per game and then 10.5 over the final 11 games, compared with 14.9 for Williams.

Williams held the edge with 58.6% of the Rams’ red-zone carries, well ahead of Corum’s mark of 29.9%. Williams also led inside the 10-yard line, 56.6% to 30.2%.

That advantage carried over to the receiving game, where he topped Corum in target share (8.6% to 2.4%) and route rate (47.1% to 15.3%).

Williams' Doppelganger

There wasn’t a clear efficiency winner between Williams and Corum:

Both RBs excelled in rushing success rate, with Williams edging Corum 62.4% to 60.2% and leading all 49 RBs who carried 100+ times.

Neither back turned in strong efficiency as a receiver. Williams tallied 0.81 yards per route run, 35th out of 42 RBs with 30+ targets. Corum was even worse at 0.40 YPRR.

The Rams Provided Plenty of Support

The Rams created a strong rushing environment, ranking second in situation-neutral pace and eighth in total plays while the O-line finished first in Pro Football Focus run-block grade and second in ESPN’s run-block win rate.

Matthew Stafford played all 17 games and guided this offense to the No. 1 finish in points per game (30.5) and yards per game (394.6).

In a League of His Own

Williams has now reached 1,300 total yards and 13+ total scores in three straight seasons. 

He’s the only RB league-wide to hit those marks in each of the past three years.

Streak of Good Health Continues

Williams enjoyed a healthy 2025, finishing fifth among RBs in snaps (772) in 17 games. He picked up a minor ankle injury in Week 13 but played through it.

He has now gone two straight seasons without losing a game to injury. Williams last missed time in 2023, when a high-ankle sprain cost him four games.

2026 Opportunity & Projection

Is a 50-50 Split Coming?

The Athletic’s Nate Atkins wrote in May that he expects “more of a 50-50 split … with Williams as a primary third-down back and between-the-tackles runner and Corum more of a change-of-pace option…”

We're not that aggressive. Our projections give Williams a 51.5% share to Corum's 36.5%, and the Rams extended Williams last offseason with the seventh-highest guaranteed portion among RB contracts ($23 million).

Still, Corum gives the Rams a talented No. 2 RB. His role looks unlikely to shrink from 2025, making it tough to project Williams to get back to his 2024 volume.

Key Pieces Remain in Place

The Rams return all five starters from an effective O-line, including LT Alaric Jackson and RT Warren McClendon, who both ranked top-5 in run block win rate last year.

The rest of the offense should keep the run game in a good spot. Matthew Stafford returns after an MVP-winning 2025. And despite the usual decline risk for a 38-year-old QB, he showed no obvious cause for concern last year.

Another Season With McVay

HC Sean McVay returns for his 10th season in Los Angeles and will keep play-calling duties over new OC Nate Scheelhaase.

McVay’s units have ranked 19th, 18th, 10th, 9th, and 10th in rush rate since Stafford arrived in 2021. Three of those offenses have finished top-8 in scoring. The low point came in 2022, when Stafford’s seven-game absence helped drag L.A. to 27th.

The Rams’ long track record of offensive success remains a key piece of Williams’ fantasy appeal.

Risk Factors

There's no major risk here, but a few factors could slow Williams' momentum.

Corum's emergence is the first concern. We don't project a 50-50 split, but it's within the range of outcomes if Corum keeps improving, and that would obviously lower Williams' fantasy ceiling and floor.

Stafford's health is the other thing to watch. He missed part of training camp last year with a back injury, one of several in his NFL career. The QB did make it through all 17 games, though -- plus three playoff contests -- and has lost just one game to injury over the past three years.

Blake Corum

2025 Role & Results

Year 2 Growth

Corum tallied 746 yards and 6 TDs on 145 carries, adding only 8 catches for 36 yards.

Corum finished RB40 in total PPR points across 17 games and RB49 in points per game. He managed one top-12 week and three more finishes between RB18 and RB24, but the floor stayed low with eight weeks at RB50 or worse.

Corum Emerges Later in the Season

Corum looked like a clear No. 2 RB early in the season, posting a 23.4% carry share over the first seven weeks. That came in well behind Kyren Williams at 61.1%.

But after a Week 8 bye, Corum closed the gap to 52.4% vs. 35.9%. He averaged 5.8 carries per game over his first seven games, then hit 10.4 over the final 10.

Williams still controlled the high-value work, beating Corum in carries inside the 20-yard line (51 to 26) and inside the 10 (30 to 16).

Corum never emerged as a pass catcher, with Williams beating him easily in targets (36 to 8) and route rate (56% to 19%). 

Corum, Williams Post Similar Efficiency Stats

Here's how the duo compared:

Credit both RBs for ranking at the top of the league in rushing success rate. Williams narrowly topped Corum 62.4% to 60.2%, leading all 49 RBs who carried 100+ times. 

Neither back turned in strong efficiency as a receiver. Williams tallied 0.81 yards per route run, 35th out of 42 RBs with 30+ targets. Corum was even worse at 0.40 YPRR.

A Near Perfect Situation

The Rams supplied a strong environment for rushing production, ranking second in situation-neutral pace and eighth in total plays. The O-line was an asset, finishing first in Pro Football Focus run-block grade and second in ESPN’s run-block win rate.

QB Matthew Stafford played all 17 games and guided this offense to the No. 1 finish in points per game (30.5) and yards per game (394.6).

Corum Overcomes Injury History to Play 17 Games

Corum sustained a left MCL sprain and meniscus tear in November 2022, his junior season in college. He returned for an injury-free senior year at Michigan, then played all 17 regular-season games in both 2024 and 2025. 

His only pro injury came in January 2025, when a fractured forearm knocked him out of the regular-season finale.

2026 Opportunity & Projection

Will Corum's Role Continue to Grow?

Williams and Corum return to lead the Rams’ backfield.

The Athletic’s Nate Atkins wrote in May that he expects “more of a 50-50 split … with Williams as a primary third-down back and between-the-tackles runner and Corum more of a change-of-pace option…” But Atkins didn’t cite any source, such as a member of the coaching staff. 

Corum’s role could grow again in 2026, but we still expect Williams to lead the backfield. Our current projections give Williams a 51.5% carry share vs. 36.5% for Corum. Williams’ extension last offseason plus his career arc suggests he’ll enter the fall as L.A.’s clear lead back.

No Issues With the Surroundings

The Rams return all five starters from an effective O-line. The Rams were particularly strong on the edges last year, with LT Alaric Jackson and RT Warren McClendon ranking top-5 in run block win rate. 

The rest of the offense should keep the run game in a good spot. Stafford returns after an MVP-winning 2025. There’s decline risk for a 38-year-old QB, but he showed no obvious cause for concern last year.

Coaching Still a Main Selling Point

HC Sean McVay returns for his 10th season in Los Angeles and will keep play-calling duties over new OC Nate Scheelhaase. 

Last year, the Rams shifted to a series-by-series backfield rotation with Williams serving as the starter, a setup that could easily repeat in 2026. That would cap the fantasy upside of both backs.

McVay’s offenses have ranked 19th, 18th, 10th, 9th, and 10th in rush rate since Matthew Stafford arrived, with three top-8 scoring finishes. That offensive stability remains a key part of Corum’s fantasy appeal.

Risk Factors

The greatest risk for Corum is that he repeats his 2026 role and remains an inconsistent fantasy contributor who needs a Williams injury to be startable.

Frankly, you should draft him with that expectation and consider it a pleasant surprise if Corum grows beyond that.

Puka Nacua

2025 Role & Results

Puka's Ascent Continues

Nacua finished with career highs in catches (129), yards (1,715), and TDs (10) in 16 games last year.

He posted 10 top-6 PPR fantasy finishes, with only one game worse than WR22. That came with a reduced role in Week 6 due to an ankle injury.

He Stayed Busy ... For the Most Part

Nacua finished with the fourth-highest target share among WRs (28.8%). 

He continued to work short and intermediate areas, posting a 9.2-yard average depth of target while lining up in the slot on 33.7% of his routes and out wide on 62.7%.

Nacua remained a limited part of the red-zone offense. Only 15.5% of his targets came in the red zone and 17.5% arrived inside the 10-yard line, both well behind teammate Davante Adams (30.1% and 40.4%, respectively).

Elite Efficiency

Nacua continued to post excellent efficiency numbers.

Among 43 WRs with 80+ targets, he ranked:

• First in yards per route run (3.71)
• Second in catch rate (80.6%)
• Second in contested catch rate (71.1%)
• Sixth in yards after catch per reception (5.3)
• 19th in yards per catch (13.3)

Nacua also led WRs in Pro Football Focus receiving grade (96.2) and ESPN’s receiver score, which tracks separation, catching, and yards after the catch.

Set Up for Success

This is about as good a setup as it gets.

The Rams ranked first in passing yards, third in pass rate over expected, and fifth in pass attempts last year. They also finished second in situation-neutral pace and eighth in total plays. 

Matthew Stafford provided a summer scare after a back injury forced missed time in training camp. But he managed the injury well and produced one of the best statistical seasons of his career: 4,707 yards, 46 TDs, and only 8 INTs.

Several Injury Scares Amount to Little

Nacua delivered for fantasy managers despite suffering several ailments. 

He needed X-rays on his thumb after Week 4, sustained an ankle injury in Week 6, and left Week 9 with a rib injury. The ankle cost him his only missed game of 2025.

That came after Nacua missed five games in 2024 with a PCL sprain. He also played through rib and shoulder injuries during his breakout rookie season in 2023.

2026 Opportunity & Projection

Rams Run it Back

Nacua’s setup looks identical to 2025, with Matthew Stafford and Davante Adams returning. 

Stafford returns after leading the league in passing yards and TDs, Adams remains a strong boundary complement, and the Rams’ lack of a clear No. 3 WR should help preserve another top-tier target count.

TE looks like a strength for this offense. The Rams sit at least four deep there with Colby Parkinson, Terrance Ferguson, Tyler Higbee, and rookie Round 2 rookie Max Klare. But nobody in that group looks equipped to cut into Nacua's workload. 

L.A. also brought back all five starters along the O-line, cementing Nacua’s strong situation. The unit ranked fifth in ESPN’s pass-block win rate last season.

Paths To Ceiling

There’s no mystery here. 

Nacua has finished WR1 in PPR points per game in two of the past three seasons and still owns the kind of high-volume role that keeps another elite finish squarely in play.

Our projections have him at a 30.5% target share, which would have ranked second among WRs last season.

Risk Factors

It starts with Stafford’s health. He played all 17 games last season, but his history includes multiple back injuries, including an aggravated disk from last July and a spinal cord injury that cost him seven games in 2022.

If Stafford misses time, the Rams would likely turn to Round 1 pick Ty Simpson, who’s still unpolished after starting only 15 college games. Stafford, though, has lost just one game to injury across the past three seasons.

Nacua’s own injury history matters, too. He missed six games over the past two seasons with a PCL sprain and an ankle sprain, and he missed eight more in college with hamstring, ankle, and foot injuries.

Barring any health issues late in training camp, however, we’d rather chase the upside than fret over Nacua’s durability.

Davante Adams

2025 Role & Results

Adams Stuns With 14 TDs

Adams racked up 60 catches, 789 yards, and a league-high 14 TDs in 14 games. Three of his scores came in a Week 6 game without Puka Nacua.

Adams recorded six top-12 fantasy finishes and three more between WR20 and WR22, but he also mixed in games at WR42, WR43, WR46, and WR47.

Red Zone Usage Pops

Adams quickly earned the trust of Matthew Stafford in the red zone.

Despite missing three games, Adams still ranked third among all pass catchers in red-zone targets and first in targets inside the 10-yard line, scoring 11 of his 14 TDs from that range.

In 12 full Nacua games, Adams drew a 23.5% target share. That trailed Nacua's 28.8% mark but still would have ranked 17th among 56 pass catchers with 80+ targets.

Adams also worked farther downfield in 2025, posting a career-high 13.6-yard average depth of target vs. a 10.5-yard career average.

Efficiency Metrics Dip ... Here's Why

Adams’ 1.93 yards per route run marked his lowest since 2017. 

He also posted a poor 54.1% catch rate, hurt by his worst drop rate since 2015 (12.2%). Stafford didn’t help much either: Adams’ 65% catchable target rate ranked 59th among 76 qualifying WRs, while Nacua ranked third at 86%.

Adams’ TD efficiency drove his fantasy production. He posted an inflated 23.3% TD rate, well above his 10.7% career rate entering the season.

An Excellent Situation

Adams benefited from a strong offensive environment.

The Rams ranked first in passing yards, third in pass rate over expected, and fifth in pass attempts. They also finished second in situation-neutral pace and eighth in total plays. 

Stafford provided a summer scare after a back injury forced him to miss time in training camp. But he managed the injury well and produced one of the best statistical seasons of his career (4,707-46-8). Stafford has lost just one game to injury over the past three seasons.

Keep An Eye on the Hamstrings

Adams sustained a right hamstring injury late in Week 15. He missed the final three games before returning for the postseason.

Adams missed two games with a left hamstring injury in 2024.

2026 Opportunity & Projection

Adams Returns to the Same Role

Adams projects cleanly as the No. 2 target behind Nacua.

The Rams let Tutu Atwell walk in free agency and added only Round 6 WR CJ Daniels this offseason. Returning WRs Jordan Whittington and Konata Mumpfield supply unproven depth with only 263 combined yards in 2025.

The TE room looks deep, with Round 2 pick Max Klare joining Colby Parkinson, Terrance Ferguson, and Tyler Higbee. That group shouldn't threaten Adams' target volume much, but it could cap his snap and route rates. The Rams led the league with a 30.5% rate of “13” personnel (three TEs) last year. Per SumerSports, Adams played only 23.5% of those snaps in his games.

Adams’ 2025 performance made one thing clear: He should remain a central red-zone piece.

McVay Remains in Charge

OC Mike LaFleur took the HC job in Arizona, but there shouldn’t be much of an impact on Adams. 

HC Sean McVay will keep calling plays for a unit that’s finished top-10 in passing yards in four of Stafford’s five Rams seasons. The lone exception came in 2022, when Stafford missed seven games with a spinal cord injury.

Paths To Ceiling

The path was clear in 2025: Adams dominated red-zone work, led the league in receiving TDs, and finished WR9 in PPR.

You can’t bank on another 14 scores on a bloated 23.3% TD rate. That mark came in well ahead of his pre-2025 TD rate of 10.7%, but even that lower mark sits well above average for the position. Adams has delivered seven seasons of double-digit TDs across three teams. 

He’s as good a TD bet as any WR in the league, and McVay’s Rams remain among the league’s best bets as a scoring offense. We’re projecting 10 TDs for Adams, tied for second-most among WRs.

Risk Factors

Our historical aging curves show WR decline picking up at 33. On average, WRs produce at 78% of peak at that age, down from 86% at 32. And although Adams’ Dec. 24 birthday means he’ll play nearly all of this season at 33, it technically makes this his age-34 campaign (by traditional age tracking).

Adams will also need to dodge another soft tissue injury after missing games with hamstring injuries in back to back seasons.

Matthew Stafford’s health is the other wild card. He played at an MVP level last year, but he’s 38 with a history of back injuries, and the entire offense depends on him staying healthy. Stafford has lost just one game to injury across the past three seasons, though, so he shouldn’t downgrade your Adams outlook.

Colby Parkinson

2025 Role & Results

He Scored How Many TDs?

Parkinson set career highs with 43 catches, 408 yards, and 8 TDs in 15 games.

He didn’t post his first top-12 PPR fantasy line until Week 10. From then on, he finished as a top-12 TE in seven of his final nine games.

Reliant on Red Zone Usage

Parkinson garnered a low 10.4% target share in his 15 games. That dropped to 9.2% in 11 games shared with Puka Nacua and Davante Adams.

Red-zone usage made Parkinson fantasy relevant. Only eight players drew more red-zone targets than his 20, and only seven topped his 10 targets inside the 10-yard line.

MVP Play From His QB

Parkinson benefited from a Rams offense that received an MVP season from QB Matthew Stafford.

The 38-year-old played all 17 games and led the league in passing yards (4,707) and TDs (46).

The Rams also finished top-8 in total plays, pass rate over expected, and red-zone pass rate over expected. 

He Overcame Early Season Injuries

Parkinson didn’t miss a game from 2022 through 2024. That streak ended early last year after he sustained a Week 1 shoulder sprain, costing him one game. 

Parkinson also missed one game following a Week 5 concussion. But neither injury presents concern for 2026.

2026 Opportunity & Projection

Rams Add Competition

Parkinson enters the final year of his contract as the best bet to lead Rams TEs in production. He led that group last year in:

• Catch rate (75.4%)
• TDs (8)
• Yards per route run (1.67)
• Targets per route run (23%)
• Pro Football Focus receiving grade (75.5)

But he’s not a lock to remain on top and certainly doesn’t look like a true lead TE.

The team returns Terrance Ferguson, a 2025 Round 2 pick. He flashed as a rookie with 231 yards and 3 TDs on only 11 catches.

GM Les Snead added another Round 2 TE this spring in Ohio State’s Max Klare. He drew a Jake Ferguson comp from our prospect guru Shane Hallam, and the rookie’s early draft capital suggests he could contribute in Year 1.

The Rams also brought Tyler Higbee back on a new two-year deal. He’s missed 21 games over the past two seasons with knee and ankle injuries and turned 33 in January, but he’ll compete for snaps if healthy.

This passing game will still funnel through Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, who combined for a huge 55.1% target share last season and project similarly for 2026.

Keep an Eye on 13 Personnel Usage

L.A. led the league in 1-RB, 3-TE sets (“13” personnel) last year at 30.5%, well ahead of the No. 2 team (Pittsburgh, 14.2%). Interestingly, the Rams finished with the third-lowest rate of 2-TE sets (9.6%).

The Rams lost OC Mike LaFleur to the Cardinals, but this has long been HC Sean McVay’s offense. Look for the Rams to continue leaning into three-TE sets, especially after spending a high pick at TE in back-to-back drafts.

Risk Factors

Parkinson will face stiffer target competition in the fall, so his ability to repeat 2025 will come down to scoring.

He did it last year with 8 scores on an 18.6% TD rate. Expecting a repeat would be risky given his pre-2025 TD rate of just 5.7%.

You also can’t expect Stafford to repeat his league-leading 46 TDs and 4,707 yards from 2025. At age 38, that kind of production is rare: only Tom Brady has thrown for 40+ TDs at 38 or older, and only Brady, Peyton Manning, and Philip Rivers have reached 4,500 yards.

Consider Parkinson a lock for TD regression, with current projections pegging him for 5 TDs.

Terrance Ferguson

2025 Role & Results

A Quiet Rookie Season

Ferguson spread 11 catches, 231 yards, and 3 TDs across 14 games.

He posted his best two PPR fantasy finishes (TE13 and TE9) with Davante Adams sidelined. The rookie scored in both matchups. 

Otherwise, he finished only one other week inside the top 24.

Ferguson Used Like a WR

The Rams leaned into Ferguson’s speed, which showed up at the NFL Combine with an 81st-percentile 40-yard dash and a 91st-percentile 10-yard split, per MockDraftable.

His 18.3-yard average depth of target led all 58 TEs with 25+ targets and ranked third among all 243 players with 25+ targets. He also moved around plenty, running 46.2% of his routes from the slot and 23.7% out wide.

Ferguson simply wasn’t a large part of the Rams’ offense, though. His 5.5% target share ranked seventh on the team and 55th among TEs.

The Stafford-to-Ferguson Connection Needs Work

Ferguson proved boom or bust on his opportunities.

He caught only 44% of his targets but made them count with a massive 21.0 yards per catch. His 1.38 yards per route run ranked third among Rams TEs, behind Colby Parkinson’s 1.67 and Tyler Higbee’s 1.49.

Ferguson’s connection with Matthew Stafford will be worth watching in Year 2. In 2025, Ferguson saw just a 60% catchable target rate, last among 54 TEs with 25+ targets.

Rams Supply a Proven Offense

Ferguson at least plays in a strong offense. Last year’s Rams received an MVP season from Stafford. The 38-year-old played all 17 games and led the league in passing yards (4,707) and TDs (46).

The Rams also finished top-8 in total plays, pass rate over expected, and red-zone pass rate over expected. 

Two Missed Games

Ferguson missed Week 18 and the Wild Card Round with a hamstring injury. He returned to catch one of six targets for 19 yards over the Rams' final two postseason games. 

2026 Opportunity & Projection

Rams Add Another Round 2 TE

Ferguson will have a chance to lead Rams TEs in production this season. Beat writer Nate Atkins of The Athletic even wrote in May that the Rams “hope” Ferguson “takes the lead” in the TE group.

First, he’ll need to beat out the deepest TE group in the league. Colby Parkinson enters a contract year after leading the unit with 43 catches, 408 yards, and 8 TDs, and in 12 shared games he beat Ferguson in targets (46 to 25), catches (35 to 11), yards (361 to 231), and TDs (6 to 3).

The Rams added even more talent to the TE room with Round 2 pick Max Klare. He finished third on Ohio State in receiving last year and brings the hands and route-running chops to contribute early.

Then there’s Tyler Higbee, who returned this offseason on a two-year deal. His $3.4 million in guarantees ranks just 48th among TEs (per Spotrac), and his 21 missed games over the past two seasons suggest the Rams can’t count on him for a sizable role.

Even if Ferguson leads Rams TEs in fantasy scoring, the edge figures to be thin in an offense that still runs through Puka Nacua and Davante Adams. Their 55.1% combined target share led all WR duos last season.

Ferguson's Involvement Should Rise in Year 2

L.A. led the league in 1-RB, 3-TE sets (“13” personnel) last year at 30.5%, well ahead of the No. 2 team (Pittsburgh, 14.2%). Interestingly, the Rams finished with the third-lowest rate of 2-TE sets (9.6%).

The Rams lost OC Mike LaFleur to the Cardinals, but this has long been HC Sean McVay’s offense. Look for the Rams to continue leaning into 3-TE sets, especially after spending a high pick at TE in back-to-back drafts.

Paths To Ceiling

Ferguson needs a Year 2 leap, a larger role, and continued efficiency.

Ferguson also needs Stafford to hold off decline after leading the NFL in passing yards (4,707) and TDs (46) while finishing third in attempts (597) last year.

The Rams also ranked top-8 in total plays, pass rate over expected, and red-zone pass rate over expected, all key for a TE unlikely to rank near the top of the position in snaps and route rate.

Next Up

Can You Trust Anyone On the Dolphins?

Next Article  

Kevin English, Senior Analyst

Kevin brings 15+ years of experience as a fantasy analyst and mid-stakes competitor across various formats (redraft, best ball, dynasty, DFS). He finished 1st in FantasyPros Draft Accuracy competition in 2024. Kevin's work has been featured in The Mercury News, NBC Sports/Rotoworld, and FantasyPros.