Atlanta Falcons 2026 Overview

Schedule

Wins

Play Calling

Key Additions

• QB Tua Tagovailoa
• RB Brian Robinson
• WR Zachariah Branch
• WR Jahan Dotson
• WR Olamide Zaccheaus
• TE Austin Hooper
• OT Jawaan Taylor

Key Departures

• RB Tyler Allgeier
• WR Darnell Mooney

Notable Coaching Changes

• HC Raheem Morris and OC Zac Robinson out
• HC Kevin Stefanski and OC Tommy Rees in

Tua Tagovailoa

2025 Role & Results

Tua Hits Rock Bottom

Tagovailoa is coming off his worst season since 2021. He completed 67.7% of his passes at 6.9 yards per attempt, averaging 190.0 yards and 1.4 TDs across 14 games. He added just 43 scoreless rushing yards.

Tua ranked 33rd among QBs in fantasy points per game and finished top-12 at the position in just two of his 14 outings.

He was benched for the final three games of the season.

Completion Rate Fine, Yards Per Attempt Not

Tagovailoa’s 67.7% completion rate was good for ninth among 42 QBs with 150+ pass attempts last year. He ranked 12th in Pro Football Focus’ adjusted completion rate.

But Tua’s 6.9 yards per attempt ranked just 22nd, and his 65.8 PFF passing grade ranked 31st.

He registered a 7.2-yard average target depth (34th), while just 9.6% of his passes traveled 20+ yards downfield (39th).

The Offense Didn't Help

Tagovailoa operated in a slow-paced, balanced offense under HC Mike McDaniel last year. Through Week 15, the Dolphins ranked:

• 31st in seconds per snap
• 29th in plays
• 19th in pass rate
• 17th in neutral pass rate

Tagovailoa’s 27.4 pass attempts per game ranked 32nd league-wide.

He played his final 10 games without Tyreek Hill, who went down with a season-ending knee injury in Week 4. But Tua averaged 188 yards per game on 6.6 yards per attempt with Hill vs. 191 yards on 7.1 yards per attempt without him. Hill’s injury was not the main reason Tagovailoa’s season cratered.

Tua's Peak Feels Like Forever Ago

Tagovailoa turned in strong seasons in McDaniel’s first two years in Miami, completing 67.4% of his passes at 8.5 yards per attempt with a 5.6% TD rate. He finished 10th among QBs in fantasy points per game in 2022 and 19th in 2023.

But he tailed off the last two years. Tua averaged just 7.2 yards per attempt in 2024 and registered his worst PFF passing grade since 2021. His yards per attempt and PFF grade sank further last year. 

Scary Injury History

Tagovailoa didn’t miss any games with injury last year. But his injury history is extensive, including:

• A dislocated hip in 2019
• two ankle surgeries
• four documented concussions

2026 Opportunity & Projection

Tagovailoa To Battle Penix

The rebuilding Dolphins dumped Tagovailoa in March, taking on an NFL-record $99 million in dead money. He signed with the Falcons a couple of days later.

Tagovailoa joins Michael Penix in Atlanta. Penix is coming off an underwhelming 2025 that ended with his third ACL tear. He underwent surgery on Nov. 25 and is expected to be ready “at some point” during training camp, NFL Network’s Cameron Wolfe said in March.

Considering that timeline, and the Falcons breaking in a new offense, Tagovailoa looks like the favorite to start Week 1. But he’ll need to play better than last year to hang onto it.

Top-Heavy Supporting Cast

The Falcons return last year’s top three targets in WR Drake London, TE Kyle Pitts, and RB Bijan Robinson. (Although Pitts is on a franchise tag and has been mentioned as a trade candidate this offseason.)

The Falcons lost last year’s No. 2 WR Darnell Mooney in free agency and will replace him with some combination of Jahan Dotson, Zachariah Branch, and Olamide Zaccheaus. 

Dotson has been a colossal bust since going 16th overall in the 2022 draft, averaging just 380 receiving yards across four NFL seasons.

Branch and Zaccheaus both project as primary slot receivers. Branch, a third-round rookie, is the most exciting of the trio. He’s an electric athlete and dangerous after the catch. But his college production was built on designed touches and gadget plays. He might not be ready for a big role right away.

Like last year, this remains a top-heavy pass-catching corps that can’t afford injuries to London, Pitts, or Robinson.

The Falcons return four of five starters from last year’s offensive line. Jawaan Taylor will take over for Elijah Wilkinson at RT after arriving in free agency. Taylor has started for the past seven seasons (four with Jacksonville, three with Kansas City) and should be a tangible upgrade.

Atlanta ranked 14th in ESPN pass block win rate and 15th in PFF pass-blocking grade last year and should be an average to above-average offensive line again in 2026.

New Staff Likely To Lean Run

Atlanta canned HC Raheem Morris, OC Zac Robinson, and the rest of the staff this offseason. HC Kevin Stefanski takes over, with Tommy Rees as his OC.

Stefanski spent the last six seasons as Browns HC, compiling a 45-56 record. His first four offenses ranked between 14th and 18th in yards before QB play sank the operation the last two years.

Cleveland was generally a run-leaning offense under Stefanski. Here’s where the team ranked in neutral pass rate and pass rate over expected over the last six seasons:

Rees notably spent the past two years with Stefanski in Cleveland, including as OC last year. Rees took over play-calling from Stefanski in Week 10 last season and is expected to call plays this year.

Based on the history of this coaching staff and the Falcons’ personnel, expect this to be a run-leaning offense in 2026.

Paths To Ceiling

Tagovailoa has a strong trio of weapons in London, Pitts, and Robinson. That could be enough to make him a decent QB2 in fantasy lineups, with some QB1-level spike weeks.

But his lack of rushing ability makes his path to a top-12 season extremely difficult even if he starts all year.

Risk Factors

Tagovailoa has not been very good the past two years. Even if he opens the season as Atlanta’s starter, continued poor play could quickly get him benched for Penix.

Michael Penix

2025 Role & Results

A Non-Factor In Fantasy Last Year

Penix threw for 1,807 yards with 9 TDs and 3 INTs in eight games before his Week 11 ACL injury. He added 61 yards and a score on the ground.

Penix ranked 28th among QBs in fantasy points per game over that stretch, cracking the top 12 in just three of eight games and finishing no better than QB10 in any week.

Too Much Deep Passing?

Among 42 QBs with 150+ pass attempts last season, Penix ranked:

• 35th in completion rate
• 15th in yards per attempt
• 37th in TD rate
• 37th in Pro Football Focus pass grade

His 8.8-yard average target depth was 11th-highest among those 42 QBs. But Penix wasn’t particularly good throwing deep, ranking outside the top 35 QBs in completion rate and PFF grade on passes 20+ yards downfield.

Environment Wasn't Fantasy Friendly

Penix operated in a balanced offense that ranked 19th league-wide with a 56.4% pass rate through Week 10. Penix’s 32.5 pass attempts per game through Week 10 ranked 14th.

He operated behind an offensive line that ranked 14th in ESPN pass-block win rate and 15th in PFF pass-blocking grade.

Atlanta finished 15th in PFF receiving grade, with WR Drake London, TE Kyle Pitts, and RB Bijan Robinson the top three targets.

Underwhelming Start To Penix's Career

Penix has now made just 12 starts through two NFL seasons after spending most of his 2024 rookie campaign behind Kirk Cousins.

Among 40 QBs with 300+ pass attempts over the last two seasons, Penix ranks:

• 40th in completion rate
• 18th in yards per attempt
• 36th in TD rate

He improved his completion rate from 2024 to 2025 (58.1% to 60.1%) but declined in yards per attempt (7.4 to 7.2) and PFF grade (87.6 to 58.0).

Another Serious Knee Injury

Penix’s 2025 season ended on Nov. 16 with what was reported as a partial tear of his left ACL. He underwent surgery on Nov. 25. NFL Network’s Cameron Wolfe reported in March that Penix is expected to be ready “at some point” during training camp.

This was the third major knee injury for Penix, who tore his right ACL in both 2018 and 2020. He also suffered a season-ending right shoulder injury in 2019 and a season-ending left shoulder injury in 2021.

2026 Opportunity & Projection

Falcons Add New Competition

Tua Tagovailoa joins Penix in Atlanta's QB room for 2026. 

Tua spent most of the past six seasons as Miami’s starter. He had strong 2022 and 2023 seasons under HC Mike McDaniel but tailed off the last two years, averaging 7.2 and then 6.9 yards per attempt.

Here’s how Tagovailoa and Penix stacked up last season:

Penix and Tagovailoa win in different ways. Penix is the aggressive, big-armed passer, while Tagovailoa plays a more conservative game built on accuracy. Penix has a 9.3-yard career average target depth vs. Tagovailoa's 7.8.

Penix's injury and Atlanta's brand new offense will make it tough for him to win the starting job this summer, so we're currently projecting Tagovailoa as the Falcons' Week 1 starter.

Supporting Cast Remains Top-Heavy

The Falcons return last year’s top three targets in London, Pitts, and Robinson. (Although Pitts is on a franchise tag and has been mentioned as a trade candidate this offseason.)

The Falcons lost last year’s No. 2 WR Darnell Mooney in free agency and will replace him with some combination of Jahan Dotson, Zachariah Branch, and Olamide Zaccheaus. 

Dotson has been a colossal bust since going 16th overall in the 2022 draft, averaging just 380 receiving yards across four NFL seasons.

Branch and Zaccheaus both project as slot receivers. Branch, a third-round rookie, is the most exciting of the trio. He’s an electric athlete and dangerous after the catch. But his college production was built on designed touches and gadget plays. He might not be ready for a big role right away.

Like last year, this remains a top-heavy pass-catching corps that can’t afford injuries to London, Pitts, or Robinson.

The Falcons return four of five starters from last year’s offensive line. Jawaan Taylor will take over for Elijah Wilkinson at RT after arriving in free agency. Taylor has started for the past seven seasons (four with Jacksonville, three with Kansas City) and should be a tangible upgrade.

New Staff Likely To Lean Run

Atlanta canned HC Raheem Morris, OC Zac Robinson, and the rest of the staff this offseason. HC Kevin Stefanski takes over, with Tommy Rees as his OC.

Stefanski spent the last six seasons as Browns HC, compiling a 45-56 record. His first four offenses ranked between 14th and 18th in yards before poor QB play sunk the operation the last two years.

Cleveland was generally a run-leaning offense under Stefanski. Here’s where the team ranked in neutral pass rate and pass rate over expected over the last six seasons:

Rees notably spent the past two years with Stefanski in Cleveland, including as OC last year. Rees took over play calling from Stefanski in Week 10 last season and is expected to call plays this year.

Based on the history of this coaching staff and the Falcons’ personnel, expect this to be a run-leaning offense in 2026.

Paths To Ceiling

Penix has a strong trio of weapons in London, Pitts, and Robinson. That could be enough to make him a decent QB2 in fantasy lineups, with some QB1-level spike weeks.

But he lacks the rushing juice to be a truly exciting fantasy option.

Risk Factors

Penix is coming off his third significant knee injury, is in a brand-new offense, and faces new competition from Tagovailoa.

He’ll struggle to win the starting job out of training camp and could spend the entire season sitting behind Tua.

Bijan Robinson

2025 Role & Results

A Dual-Threat Fantasy Stud

Robinson finished second among RBs in PPR points per game last year; third in half-PPR and non-PPR points per game.

He carried 287 times for 1,478 yards and 7 TDs and added another 820 yards and four scores on 79 catches. Robinson ranked fourth among RBs in rushing yards, second in receiving yards, and 13th in total TDs.

He scored as a top-12 PPR RB in 12 of 17 outings, including nine top-5 weeks. That tied Christian McCaffrey for most top-5 weeks at the position.

Huge Volume Everywhere But The Goal Line

Robinson was a workhorse for Atlanta last year. He ranked third among RBs in both snaps (821) and snap rate (78.3%). 

The touches followed:

• fifth among RBs in carries
• ninth in carry share (60.2%)
• second in targets
• third in target share (18.0%)

Robinson’s usage lagged a bit near the goal line. He tied for just 23rd in carries inside the 10-yard line (17) and tied for 22nd in carries inside the 5 (10), losing work there to Tyler Allgeier.

But Robinson still finished second among RBs in expected PPR points per game; third in expected non-PPR points per game.

Super Efficient On The Ground And Through The Air

Robinson was one of the league’s best rushers by almost any metric last year. Among 51 RBs with 90+ carries, he ranked:

• fourth in yards per carry
• seventh in rush yards over expected per attempt
• second in yards after contact per attempt
• first in missed tackles forced per attempt
• 12th in Pro Football Focus rush grade

Robinson was just as dominant as a pass catcher. Among 40 RBs with 30+ targets, he finished:

• first in yards per route
• fifth in PFF receiving grade

Falcons Leaned On Bijan

The 2025 Falcons finished 14th in total yards but just 24th in points.

It was a run-leaning offense, ranking 21st in pass rate, 16th in neutral pass rate, and 26th in pass rate over expected.

Robinson ran behind a mediocre offensive line that finished ninth in PFF run-blocking grades but 30th in ESPN run-block win rate and 23rd in adjusted line yards.

Still Getting Better?

Robinson’s fantasy production has climbed across each of his first three NFL seasons:

• 2023: 14.5 PPR points per game (RB17)
• 2024: 20.0 PPR PPG (RB3)
• 2025: 22.0 PPR PPG (RB2)

Robinson ranks third among RBs in PPR points per game over the last three seasons.

He also set new career highs in yards, yards after contact, and missed tackles forced per attempt last year.

Still just 24, Robinson sits smack dab in the middle of his prime.

Clean Injury History

Robinson has not missed a game through three NFL seasons. In fact, the only significant injury on his resume is a dislocated elbow his sophomore year at Texas (2021).

2026 Opportunity & Projection

New Backup, Same Workhorse Role

The Falcons swapped out Allgeier for Brian Robinson Jr. this offseason. Robinson got just $2.5 million on a one-year deal and looks like a downgrade. He trails Allgeier in:

• Career yards after contact per attempt (2.92 vs. 3.27)
• Career missed tackles forced per attempt (0.18 vs. 0.23)

Robinson offers a little more than Allgeier in the passing game, but he’s not a real threat to Bijan in that department. Brian has 73 catches through four NFL seasons, with nearly half of those coming in 2023.

In short, Bijan should be a workhorse for the Falcons again this season.

QB Turnover, Stable Offensive Line

The Falcons will likely have a new QB under center, at least to open the season. Michael Penix Jr. is working back from his third torn ACL and isn’t expected back on the field until August. Kirk Cousins was released in March.

That leaves Tua Tagovailoa as the likely Week 1 starter. Tua had a couple of strong seasons in 2022 and 2023 but has disappointed the past two years. 

On the plus side for Robinson, Tagovailoa sports a career 7.8-yard average target depth that’s sunk to 6.1 and 7.2 the last two seasons. He played a big part in De’Von Achane averaging 5.2 targets per game over those last two years and could be good news for Robinson’s target volume.

The Falcons return four of five starters from last year’s offensive line. Jawaan Taylor will take over for Elijah Wilkinson at RT after arriving in free agency. Taylor has started for the past seven seasons (four with Jacksonville, three with Kansas City) and should be a tangible upgrade.

This should again be a serviceable run-blocking offensive line in 2026.

New Staff Likely To Lean Run

Atlanta canned HC Raheem Morris, OC Zac Robinson, and the rest of the staff this offseason. HC Kevin Stefanski takes over, with Tommy Rees as his OC.

Stefanski spent the last six seasons as Browns HC, compiling a 45-56 record. His first four offenses ranked between 14th and 18th in yards before QB play sank the operation the last two years.

Cleveland generally leaned run under Stefanski. Here’s where the team ranked in neutral pass rate and pass rate over expected over the last six seasons:

Rees notably spent the past two years with Stefanski in Cleveland, including as OC last year. Rees took over play-calling from Stefanski in Week 10 last season and is expected to call plays this year.

Based on the history of this coaching staff and the Falcons’ personnel, expect this to be a run-leaning offense in 2026.

Paths To Ceiling

Robinson should continue to dominate touches in Atlanta’s backfield. And there’s a chance the team gets better play-calling and QB play this season. 

Robinson clearly has the upside to lead all RBs in fantasy points.

Risk Factors

QB play is the biggest concern for Robinson. If Tagovailoa doesn’t bounce back and Penix doesn’t take a step forward in year three, this could be a bottom-10 offense.

That could make Robinson more “solid RB1” than “fantasy league-winner.”

Brian Robinson

2025 Role & Results

A Non-Factor In Fantasy

Robinson carried 92 times for 400 yards and 2 TDs last year, adding 25 scoreless yards on 8 catches.

He finished outside the top 80 RBs across fantasy scoring formats and scored as a top-36 RB in just two weeks.

Scant Volume Behind McCaffrey

Robinson spent 2025 behind Christian McCaffrey, who played all 17 games in a workhorse role.

Robinson:

• Played 16.9% of San Francisco’s offensive snaps
• Handled 19.1% of the team’s rushing attempts
• Drew 2.1% of the targets

He ranked 82nd among RBs in expected PPR points per game.

Middling Efficiency

Robinson was actually a more effective runner than McCaffrey by most metrics last year. He beat CMC in:

• Yards per carry (4.3 to 3.9)
• Yards after contact per attempt (3.10 to 2.76)
• Missed tackles forced per attempt (0.24 to 0.15)
• Pro Football Focus rushing grade (69.4 to 69.1)

Robinson looks less impressive compared to the rest of the league. Among 51 RBs with 90+ carries last year, he ranked:

• 27th in yards per carry
• 21st in yards after contact per attempt
• eighth in missed tackles forced per attempt
• 45th in PFF grade

He's Never Stood Out

Robinson led committee backfields in Washington in each of his first three NFL seasons, averaging 190 carries and 776 yards per year on 4.1 yards per carry.

He wasn’t particularly impressive in advanced metrics in any of those seasons. Among 62 RBs with 250+ carries over the last four seasons, Robinson ranks:

• 37th in yards after contact per attempt
• 32nd in missed tackles forced per attempt

2026 Opportunity & Projection

From Backup ... To Backup

Robinson goes from backing up McCaffrey in San Francisco to backing up Bijan Robinson in Atlanta after inking a one-year, $2.5 million deal with the Falcons in March.

Last year's No. 2 RB, Tyler Allgeier, averaged 8.4 carries, 0.9 targets, and 7.2 expected PPR points per game, all better than Robinson's 2025 marks. But that came under a different Falcons coaching staff.

It’s Tyler Goodson, Nathan Carter, and Carlos Washington Jr. behind Brian Robinson on the depth chart, so he’s a virtual lock for the No. 2 RB job.

QB Turnover, Stable Offensive Line

The Falcons will likely have a new QB under center, at least to open the season. Michael Penix Jr. is working back from his third torn ACL and isn’t expected back on the field until August. Kirk Cousins was released in March.

That leaves Tua Tagovailoa as the likely Week 1 starter. Tua had a couple of strong seasons in 2022 and 2023 but disappointed the past two years.

The Falcons return four of five starters from last year’s offensive line. Jawaan Taylor will take over for Elijah Wilkinson at RT after arriving in free agency. Taylor has started for the past seven seasons (four with Jacksonville, three with Kansas City) and should be a tangible upgrade.

This should again be a serviceable run-blocking offensive line in 2026.

New Staff Likely To Lean Run

Atlanta canned HC Raheem Morris, OC Zac Robinson, and the rest of the staff this offseason. HC Kevin Stefanski takes over, with Tommy Rees as his OC.

Stefanski spent the last six seasons as Browns HC, compiling a 45-56 record. His first four offenses ranked between 14th and 18th in yards before QB play sank the operation the last two years.

Cleveland was generally a run-leaning offense under Stefanski. Here’s where the team ranked in neutral pass rate and pass rate over expected over the last six seasons:

Rees notably spent the past two years with Stefanski in Cleveland, including as OC last year. Rees took over play-calling from Stefanski in Week 10 last season and is expected to call plays this year.

Based on the history of this coaching staff and the Falcons’ personnel, expect this to be a run-leaning offense in 2026.

Stefanski’s history includes committee backfields in 2023 and 2024. But he also fed Nick Chubb 16.7 carries and 1.9 targets per game across 2020-2022. And Quinshon Judkins averaged 16.4 carries and 2.6 targets per game last year.

We expect Stefanski to deploy Bijan Robinson as a workhorse, leaving Brian Robinson with a small role.

Paths To Ceiling

Any ceiling case for Robinson likely includes an injury to Bijan Robinson. That would leave Brian Robinson as at least an early-down workhorse, with the potential to also control passing-down work considering the lack of viable options behind him on the depth chart.

Robinson has RB2 upside if the starter goes down.

Risk Factors

Bijan Robinson has averaged 17.4 carries and 5.1 targets per game over the past two seasons. If he gets a similar workload this year, there’s a strong chance that Brian Robinson proves irrelevant in fantasy.

Drake London

2025 Role & Results

WR1 Production (Despite An Injury)

London tallied 68 catches for 919 yards and 7 TDs in 12 games last season. He finished eighth among WRs in PPR points per game; seventh in half-PPR.

London was even better before a Week 11 knee injury that cost him four games and seemed to limit him over the final three. In nine games before the injury, he:

• Averaged 6.7 catches, 90 yards, and 0.7 TDs per game
• Ranked third among WRs in PPR and half-PPR points per game
• Scored as a top-12 PPR WR five times, including four top-5 finishes

Big Volume Fueled Production

London was a target hog last year, averaging 9.3 targets per game on a 29.2% share on the season. Those marks jump to 10.4 targets on a 31.6% share before the Week 11 knee injury. Only Jaxon Smith-Njigba registered a bigger target share than that on the season.

London also ranked fifth in targets per route on the season (0.31) and fourth through Week 11 (0.32).

He was equally dominant near the end zone, drawing 31.8% of Falcons targets inside the red zone and 44.4% inside the 10. Those were both top-6 marks league-wide.

London ranked eighth among WRs in expected PPR points per game on the season and fifth through Week 11.

Strong Efficiency Helped, Too

Among 76 WRs with 50+ targets last year, London ranked:

• 30th in yards per target
• 11th in yards per route
• fifth in Pro Football Focus receiving grade

Falcons Leaned Run

The 2025 Falcons finished 14th in total yards but just 24th in points.

It was a run-leaning offense, ranking 21st in pass rate, 16th in neutral pass rate, and 26th in pass rate over expected.

Atlanta finished:

• 19th in pass attempts
• 19th in pass yards
• Tied for 26th in pass TDs

An Established Target Hog

Last year marked London’s second straight high-level season. He finished WR13 in PPR points per game and WR14 in half-PPR in 2024.

London has now posted dominant target shares in three of his four NFL seasons:

• 2022: 28.2%
• 2023: 22.4%
• 2024: 28.3%
• 2025: 29.2%

(2023 was Arthur Smith’s final season in Atlanta. TEs Kyle Pitts and Jonnu Smith combined for a 30.2% target share that year.)

London has also posted his two best yards-per-route averages the last two seasons, ranking 11th among WRs with 50+ targets both years.

London ranks seventh at his position in PPR points per game over the last two seasons.

Injury History Not Worrisome

London missed five games last year, one with a hip injury and four with a PCL sprain in his left knee. 

He missed just one game over his first three NFL seasons, with a groin injury in 2023.

London fractured an ankle at USC in 2021 but has had no ankle trouble as a pro.

2026 Opportunity & Projection

Expect Big Volume Again

London finds similar target competition in 2026, with Kyle Pitts and Bijan Robinson back.

The Falcons released last year’s No. 2 WR Darnell Mooney and will replace him with some combination of Jahan Dotson, Zachariah Branch, and Olamide Zaccheaus. 

Dotson has been a colossal bust since going 16th overall in the 2022 draft, averaging just 380 receiving yards across four NFL seasons.

Branch and Zaccheaus both project as primary slot receivers. Branch, a third-round rookie, is the most exciting of the trio. He’s an electric athlete and dangerous after the catch. But his college production was built on designed touches and gadget plays. He might not be ready for a big role right away.

London should again be the clear top target in this passing game after averaging 9.3 targets across 12 games last season. Pitts and Robinson sat well behind at 6.1 apiece.

Reshaped QB Room Adds Uncertainty

The Falcons will likely have a new QB under center, at least to open the season. Michael Penix Jr. is working back from his third torn ACL and isn’t expected back on the field until August. Atlanta released Kirk Cousins in March.

That leaves Tua Tagovailoa as the likely Week 1 starter. Tua had a couple of strong seasons in 2022 and 2023 but disappointed the past two years. 

Tagovailoa at least seems like a fine fit with London’s game, with a career 7.8-yard average target depth that’s sunk to 6.1 and 7.2 the last two seasons. London has been between an 11.1 and 11.7-yard aDOT in all four of his NFL seasons.

Penix, meanwhile, underwhelmed last season but was good enough to support London. He was under center for each of London’s nine games prior to that knee injury.

New Staff Likely To Lean Run. Will It Feed London?

Atlanta canned HC Raheem Morris, OC Zac Robinson, and the rest of the staff this offseason. HC Kevin Stefanski takes over, with Tommy Rees as his OC.

Stefanski spent the last six seasons as Browns HC, compiling a 45-56 record. His first four offenses ranked between 14th and 18th in yards before QB play sank the operation the last two years.

Cleveland generally leaned run under Stefanski. Here’s where the team ranked in neutral pass rate and pass rate over expected over the last six seasons:

Rees notably spent the past two years with Stefanski in Cleveland, including as OC last year. Rees took over play-calling from Stefanski in Week 10 last season and is expected to call plays this year.

Based on the history of this coaching staff and the Falcons’ personnel, expect this to be a run-leaning offense in 2026.

Stefanski’s offense has not been particularly friendly to No. 1 WRs. Here’s how his leaders have fared in target share and PPR points-per-game rank among WRs:

London, though, is the most talented WR Stefanski has coached. Expect him to remain the clear target leader in 2026.

Paths To Ceiling

London is coming off a top-8 fantasy season, despite a late-year knee injury and a middling Atlanta offense.

If he stays healthy and the Falcons’ offense improves this year, he could ascend into the top-5 at his position.

Risk Factors

Atlanta’s offense has a low floor with a QB room of Tagovailoa and Penix. It’s also possible that London’s target share takes a hit in new HC Kevin Stefanski’s offense.

If the efficiency and volume decline this season, London could dip into WR2 territory.

Zachariah Branch

Prospect Profile

Branch Flashed As A Freshman

Branch played sparingly on offense as a freshman at USC in 2023, registering a 29.4% snap rate. But his 31 catches, 320 yards, and 2 TDs were all top-4 marks on the team. (Teammate and fellow freshman Makai Lemon finished that season with 6 catches for 88 scoreless yards.) 

Branch was also excellent on special teams. He led the nation with 20.8 yards per punt return, averaged 18.4 yards per kick return, and scored two return TDs. Branch became the school’s first true freshman first-team All-American for those contributions in the return game. 

Branch Gets Overtaken By Lemon

Branch stepped into a larger offensive role as a sophomore in 2024, finishing second among Trojan WRs in snap rate (53.0%) and third in route rate (57.7%). But he trailed Lemon 52 to 47 in catches. And his 503 yards ranked third behind Lemon and fellow 2026 draft prospect Ja’Kobi Lane.

Lemon and Lane beat Branch in yards per route and Pro Football Focus receiving grade.

Branch also lost the kick-return job to Lemon. And his punt-return efficiency cratered: 5.7 yards per return with no TDs.

Move To Georgia Sparks Breakout

After being overshadowed by Lemon, Branch transferred to Georgia for 2025. There, he set new career highs across the board.

Branch quickly emerged as the Bulldogs’ No. 1 WR, leading the team in routes (64.5%) and target share (22.3%). His 81 catches ranked 10th nationally and were a whopping 54 more than anyone else on his team. Branch also led Georgia with 811 yards and 6 TDs.

His 26.7% dominator rating (share of team receiving yards and TDs) ranked 17th among 49 WRs invited to this year’s Combine.

Branch also posted personal bests in yards per route (2.57) and PFF receiving grade (82.6), ranking 10th and 11th among those 49 WRs.

He was named second-team All-SEC as a WR and third team as an all-purpose player. Branch averaged 20.5 yards per kick return and 12.0 yards per punt return.

Was The Breakout Real? 

Branch's 2025 production looks strong, but the way he compiled it deserves a closer look.

Branch played almost exclusively in the slot, running 79.2% of his routes and tallying 77.4% of his yardage from the inside. He was actually a bit more efficient on the outside, though, averaging 2.65 yards per route vs. 2.54 from the slot.

The bigger concern: screen-heavy usage.

A massive chunk of his production came on screens:

• 43% of his targets
• 54.3% of his receptions
• 38.6% of his receiving yards
• 50% of his TDs

Branch averaged 4.60 yards per route on screens last year vs. 2.01 on all other plays. That latter mark would have ranked 34th among those 49 draft-eligible WRs.

Branch actually posted higher PFF receiving grades on targets 10+ and 20+ yards downfield than he did on shorter looks. But that came on a small sample: just 21 targets and 14 catches on throws 10+ yards downfield all season.

His production at USC went similarly screen-heavy. Over his two years as a Trojan, screens accounted for:

• 38.1% of his targets
• 54.4% of his catches
• 33.2% of his receiving yards

Branch averaged 2.63 yards per route on screens vs. just 1.42 on all other plays at USC.

The juice is obvious. But the receiving resume is thinner than the raw production suggests.

2026 Opportunity & Projection

A Path To The No. 2 WR Job

The Falcons selected Branch with the 79th overall pick of this year’s draft, making him the 12th WR off the board.

He joins a pass-catching corps that returns its top three targets from last year in Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and Bijan Robinson. They’re good bets to again finish top-3 in targets this season.

Branch has a chance to be the No. 4 option, though. Atlanta lost Darnell Mooney, who ranked fourth on the team with 72 targets last year, in free agency and only added Jahan Dotson and Olamide Zaccheaus. Neither guy has topped 533 yards across 11 total NFL seasons.

HC Kevin Stefanski said from rookie minicamp in May that Branch won’t be limited to slot duties in his offense:

“I think Zachariah Branch certainly has inside/outside flex. That word ‘versatility’ comes to mind with somebody that can line up all over, including the backfield and in motion and those type of things. I don’t think there’s a limit to where he can line up on the field.”

New QB Adds Uncertainty

The Falcons will likely have a new QB under center, at least to open the season. Michael Penix Jr. is working back from his third torn ACL and isn’t expected back on the field until August. Atlanta released Kirk Cousins in March.

That leaves Tua Tagovailoa as the likely Week 1 starter. Tua had a couple of strong seasons in 2022 and 2023 but disappointed the past two years. 

Tagovailoa at least seems like a nice fit with Branch’s game, with a career 7.8-yard average target depth that sunk to 6.1 and 7.2 the last two seasons. Branch exited college with a career 5.2-yard average target depth.

New Staff Likely To Lean Run

Atlanta canned HC Raheem Morris, OC Zac Robinson, and the rest of the staff this offseason. HC Kevin Stefanski takes over, with Tommy Rees as his OC.

Stefanski spent the last six seasons as Browns HC, compiling a 45-56 record. His first four offenses ranked between 14th and 18th in yards before QB play sank the operation the last two years.

Cleveland was generally a run-leaning offense under Stefanski. Here’s where the team ranked in neutral pass rate and pass rate over expected over the last six seasons:

Rees notably spent the past two years with Stefanski in Cleveland, including as OC last year. Rees took over play-calling from Stefanski in Week 10 last season and is expected to call plays this year.

Based on the history of this coaching staff and the Falcons’ personnel, expect this to be a run-leaning offense in 2026.

Paths To Ceiling

Branch has a chance to finish fourth on the Falcons in targets. If new HC Kevin Stefanski features him with designed touches and maximizes his after-catch ability, the rookie could get enough volume to be a spot starter in PPR leagues.

He’d need an injury to Drake London or Kyle Pitts to be more than that.

Risk Factors

Branch is more athlete than WR at this stage of his development. And he joins a Falcons team with a target hog in London and questions at QB.

Branch could be minimally involved in a bad offense and be completely off the fantasy radar all season.

Kyle Pitts

2025 Role & Results

Top-6 Season Fueled By Huge Week 15

Pitts racked up 88 catches, 928 yards, and 5 TDs last year. He ranked second among TEs in catches and yards, while tying for 13th in TDs.

Pitts finished fifth at his position in PPR points per game; sixth in half-PPR.

But a whopping 22% of his PPR points on the season came in a huge Week 15 vs. the Buccaneers (11-166-3). Remove that game and Pitts sinks to TE15 in PPR points per game.

It’s also worth noting that his production spiked in the five games Drake London missed. Pitts averaged 19.0 PPR points per game in those outings vs. just 9.6 in 12 games with London. (Those 9.6 PPR points per game would have ranked 19th among TEs on the season.)

Much Busier Without London

Pitts tallied 118 targets on a 21.3% share last year. Those marks ranked second and third, respectively, among TEs. Pitts finished fourth at the position in expected PPR points per game.

But much of that volume came in those five games without London. The splits: 

With London

• 6.2 targets per game
• 19.3% target share

Without London

• 8.8 targets per game
• 27.3% target share

His 10.1 expected PPR points per game with London would have ranked 11th among TEs on the season.

The Efficiency Was Middling

Among 39 TEs with 40+ targets last year, Pitts ranked:

• 15th in yards per target
• 23rd in yards per route
• 29th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade

The Falcons Leaned Run

The 2025 Falcons finished 14th in total yards but just 24th in points.

It was a run-leaning offense, ranking 21st in pass rate, 16th in neutral pass rate, and 26th in pass rate over expected.

Atlanta finished:

• 19th in pass attempts
• 19th in pass yards
• Tied for 26th in pass TDs

Pitts Bounced Back In 2025

He delivered a strong rookie year, posting a 68-1,026-1 receiving line and finishing 12th among TEs in PPR points per game. But his efficiency and production plummeted the next three seasons. Pitts averaged just 36.9 yards per game over that stretch and turned in the following finishes in PPR points per game:

• 2022: 23rd
• 2023: 17th
• 2024: 21st

Despite entering his sixth NFL season, Pitts turns just 26 in October. That’s right around peak age for TEs, according to our aging-curve research.

Knee Injury To Blame For The Downturn?

Pitts has played all 17 games in four of his five NFL seasons. He missed seven games in 2022, one with a hamstring injury and six with a right knee injury. That was originally reported as a torn MCL, but Pitts later revealed that he also tore his PCL.

Pitts had surgery in November 2022 and missed most of the 2023 offseason program. He played every game in 2023 but said the knee remained an issue throughout the year.

2026 Opportunity & Projection

Franchise Tag Keeps Pitts In Similar Role

The Falcons used the franchise tag on Pitts in February. That will pay him a little more than $15 million this year, if he and the team don’t agree to a long-term deal before the July 15 deadline.

There doesn’t seem to be much momentum toward a long-term deal. In fact, Pitts has been mentioned as a potential trade candidate throughout the offseason. GM Ian Cunningham even said in March that “it’s my job to listen” to any offers for Pitts.

Assuming he remains on the team, though, Pitts should again be a top-3 option in this passing game.

Atlanta returns Drake London and Bijan Robinson but released last year’s No. 2 WR, Darnell Mooney. He’ll be replaced by some combination of Zachariah Branch, Jahan Dotson, and Olamide Zaccheaus.

Branch looks like the biggest threat to steal targets from Pitts. The third-round rookie feasted on short passes throughout his college career, registering a 5.2-yard average target depth. Pitts worked similar areas of the field the last two seasons, with aDOTs of 8.7 and 7.5 yards.

New QB Room Adds Uncertainty

The Falcons will likely have a new QB under center, at least to open the season. Michael Penix Jr. is working back from his third torn ACL and isn’t expected back on the field until August. Atlanta released Kirk Cousins in March.

That leaves Tua Tagovailoa as the likely Week 1 starter. Tua had a couple of strong seasons in 2022 and 2023 but disappointed the past two years. 

Tagovailoa at least seems like a fine fit with Pitts’ game, with a career 7.8-yard average target depth that sunk to 6.1 and 7.2 the last two seasons.

Penix, meanwhile, underwhelmed last season but was good enough to support Pitts. The pair connected on 71.7% of their attempts in Penix’s nine games last year.

New Staff Likely To Lean Run

Atlanta canned HC Raheem Morris, OC Zac Robinson, and the rest of the staff this offseason. HC Kevin Stefanski takes over, with Tommy Rees as his OC.

Stefanski spent the last six seasons as Browns HC, compiling a 45-56 record. His first four offenses ranked between 14th and 18th in yards before QB play sank the operation the last two years.

Cleveland was generally a run-leaning offense under Stefanski. Here’s where the team ranked in neutral pass rate and pass rate over expected over the last six seasons:

Rees notably spent the past two years with Stefanski in Cleveland, including as OC last year. Rees took over play-calling from Stefanski in Week 10 last season and is expected to call plays this year.

Based on the history of this coaching staff and the Falcons’ personnel, expect this to be a run-leaning offense in 2026.

TEs have been productive in Stefanski’s offense, though, particularly lately. Here’s how his top TEs have fared in target share and PPR points-per-game rank among TEs:

Paths To Ceiling

Pitts’ role could grow in new HC Kevin Stefanski’s offense, turning him into a top-5 fantasy TE.

Atlanta’s weaponry also remains thin. An injury to Drake London or Bijan Robinson could spike Pitts’ volume, as it did last year.

Risk Factors

Pitts is set to play on the franchise tag in a brand-new offense with an iffy QB room. His volume and efficiency could decline this season, dropping him well outside the top-12 fantasy TEs.