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Top Picks for Week 1 Underdog Pick Em

By Matt Schauf 10:25am EDT 9/10/22


Underdog Pick Ems are a great way to multiply your cash in season. And if you’re a DS Insider, then you’ve already got an advantage.

In case you’re new to the format: The Pick Ems platform presents a bunch of over/under options on various NFL players. You select as many as you’d like to include in an individual bet, with a minimum of 2 players from different teams. The more picks you include in a single bet, the greater the multiplier on your wager.

Click 2 bets, select the amount you want to wager, and you get 3X that if you hit them both. Stack up to 5 player bets, and you can 20X your investment.

(New to Underdog? Click here to get your 1st deposit matched, up to $100.)

I mentioned the advantage of being a DS Insider here. We have a pretty strong track record for projections accuracy. So when each week’s projections hit the site, you can compare them to the Underdog lines and find the best bets.

Jump in early, and you can get ahead of lines that will move (and often sharpen) as we draw closer to kickoff.

Rather not take the time to make all those comparisons and decipher the best picks? Well, that’s why I put this article together.

I put our Week 1 projections into a spreadsheet, added all the yardage props currently available on Underdog and found the biggest differences.

Besides looking at the individual players listed here, consider correlating bets. Betting the over on a QB’s yardage? See if you like 1 of his primary pass-catchers as well. You’ll find some options in the listings below.


Passing

Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins
DS projection: 260.4 yards
Underdog: 230.5
Difference: 29.9

Baker Mayfield, Panthers
DS: 247.3
Underdog: 222.5
Difference: 24.8

Justin Fields, Bears
DS: 222.3
Underdog: 200.5
Difference: 21.8

Davis Mills, Texans
DS: 243.2
Underdog: 221.5
Difference: 21.7

Joe Burrow, Bengals
DS: 282
Underdog: 260.5
Difference: 21.5

Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars
DS: 258.5
Underdog: 238.5
Difference: 20

There was much greater difference on the “over” side here than “under.” The largest under gap in our projections was Aaron Rodgers at -11.6 vs. his Underdog number. No one else came in more than 5.1 yards under his Underdog total.


Receiving

Evan Engram, TE, Jaguars
DS projection: 46.2 yards
Underdog: 25.5
Difference: 20.7

Rashod Bateman, WR, Ravens
DS: 65.2
Underdog: 48.5
Difference: 16.7

Hayden Hurst, TE, Bengals
DS: 34.5
Underdog: 19.5
Difference: 15

JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, Chiefs
DS: 62.6
Underdog: 47.5
Difference: 15.1

Mo Alie-Cox, TE, Colts
DS: 36.1
Underdog: 23.5
Difference: 12.6

Kadarius Toney, WR, Giants
DS: 51.5
Underdog: 39.5
Difference: 12

Austin Hooper, TE, Titans
DS: 34.3
Underdog: 22.5
Difference: 11.8

D.J. Moore, WR, Panthers
DS: 73.6
Underdog: 62.5
Difference: 11.1

Brevin Jordan, TE, Texans
DS: 32.6
Underdog: 21.5
Difference: 11.1

Quez Watkins, WR, Eagles
DS: 25.4
Underdog: 41.5
Difference: -16.1

Sterling Shepard, WR, Giants
DS: 20.4
Underdog: 41.5
Difference: -10.1

That Trevor Lawrence-Evan Engram stack is looking pretty good. And this gives you a place to play it without needing to entrust a fantasy football lineup to the new-look Jaguars in Week 1.


Rushing

Michael Carter, RB, Jets
DS: 48.5 yards
Underdog: 33.5
Difference: 15

Dameon Pierce, RB, Texans
DS: 64
Underdog: 49.5
Difference: 14.5

Antonio Gibson, RB, Commanders
DS: 72.9
Underdog: 59.5
Difference: 13.4

Elijah Mitchell, RB, 49ers
DS: 74.1
Underdog: 61.5
Difference: 12.6

Breece Hall, RB, Jets
DS: 44.3
Underdog: 32.5
Difference: 11.8

Kareem Hunt, RB, Browns
DS: 43.7
Underdog: 32.5
Difference: 11.2

Najee Harris, RB, Steelers
DS: 72.2
Underdog: 61.5
Difference: 10.7

Nick Chubb, RB, Browns
DS: 86.1
Underdog: 75.5
Difference: 10.6

Josh Jacobs, RB, Raiders
DS: 59.8
Underdog: 49.5
Difference: 10.3

Saquon Barkley, RB, Giants
DS: 66.7
Underdog: 56.5
Difference: 10.2

Even though both Jets RBs show up here, I’d be wary of betting either. We don’t yet know exactly how that backfield split will look, and they head in as 6.5-point underdogs. That doesn’t bode well for the offense’s rushing volume on whole. If you really went to bet either Carter or Hall, chasing total yardage instead of rushing or receiving might be a better idea.

Barkley and Harris stand as similarly iffy options. We expect both to be workhorses, but each guy heads into Week 1 as a heavy road underdog and might see negative game script limit his carry total.

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