New England Patriots 2026 Overview

Schedule

Wins

Play Calling

Key Additions

• WR A.J. Brown
• WR Romeo Doubs
• LG Alijah Vera-Tucker
• RT Caleb Lomu

Key Departures

• WR Stefon Diggs

Notable Coaching Changes

• None

Drake Maye

2025 Role & Results

A Massive Breakout Season

Maye’s 17-game season included 4,394 yards, 31 TDs, and 8 INTs, plus 450 yards and four more scores on the ground. The passing TDs ranked third among QBs, while both yardage totals ranked fourth.

It all added up to a QB3 finish in total fantasy points and QB4 in points per game, with:

• four top-five weeks
• eight more inside the top-12
• and just one finish worse than QB18.

A Useful Rushing Role

Maye ranked 12th in pass attempts (492) but just 25th in attempts per game (28.9). He finished third in carries (103). 

Maye threatened defenses vertically with a 13.7% deep-throw rate, seventh among 36 QBs with at least 200 total attempts.

The Pats clearly trusted Maye in the red zone, ranking 16th in red-zone pass rate but sixth in RZ pass rate over expected. Maye also ranked fifth among QBs in RZ carries.

League-Leading Efficiency

Efficiency drove Maye’s breakout season. 

Among 36 QBs with 200+ pass attempts, he ranked:

• first in completion rate
• first in completion rate over expected
• first in yards per attempt
• third in catchable-throw rate

Only Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Brock Purdy beat Maye’s 0.60 fantasy points per dropback.

One WR Made the Difference

Maye found success on an offense that broke in a new OC (Josh McDaniels) and No. 1 WR (Stefon Diggs). 

This unit ranked just 26th in pass rate and 18th in neutral pass rate. Play volume didn’t help either: New England finished 18th in total plays and 30th in pace.

Diggs’ 85-1,013-4 line carried a thin pass-catching group that also included Hunter Henry, Mack Hollins, Kayshon Boutte, and DeMario Douglas.

Maye Plays All 17 Games

Maye suffered his first documented concussion in Week 8 of 2024 but recovered in time to start the next week.

A right shoulder injury in the AFC Championship limited Maye in the Super Bowl but shouldn’t hinder him going forward.

2026 Opportunity & Projection

Supporting Cast Gets a Major Boost

Romeo Doubs joined in March on a four-year, $68 million deal ($39 million guaranteed) after setting career highs last year in catch rate, yards per catch, and yards per route run. He’s a clear upgrade on Hollins at WR2.

New England lessened the burden on Doubs by trading for A.J. Brown. The 29-year-old delivered 5.4 catches, 81.1 yards, and 0.51 TDs per game during his four-year run in Philly. The past two seasons brought a mild production dip and four missed games with hamstring issues, but Brown still gives Maye a stronger lead target than the 32-year-old Diggs.

Last year’s No. 2 through No. 7 target earners return, including reliable TE Hunter Henry. He accounted for nearly 23% of Maye’s passing TDs in 2025 and has missed only one game over the past two seasons.

The O-line returns four of five starters from a unit that ranked 13th in ESPN’s pass-block win rate and 24th in adjusted sack rate. New LG Alijah Vera-Tucker, a former Round 1 pick, could upgrade the interior if healthy, but he’s coming off a lost 2025 because of his second career torn triceps. (He also tore an Achilles’ in 2023.)

Overall, Maye’s environment looks significantly better compared to 2025.

No Change to the Coaching Staff

The Pats return the staff that steered Maye to a high-end fantasy finish on modest volume, and McDaniels said in June that Maye is showing a better understanding of the offense in Year 2.

After adding Brown and Doubs, New England looks likely to lean a bit more on the pass. Our projections have the Pats at a 54.8% pass rate, up from 53.1% in 2025.

A Repeat Season is Within Reach

Maye already showed the formula last season: top-tier passing efficiency plus real rushing volume. Another 72% completion rate or 8.9 yards per attempt is too much to expect. Over the past 20 seasons, Maye’s completion rate ties Drew Brees’ 2017 mark for fifth best, while his YPA ranks fourth. Still, Brown and Doubs give him more margin for error, and his rushing growth from Year 1 to Year 2 keeps the ceiling in the top five.

TreVeyon Henderson

2025 Role & Results

Uneven Production

Henderson’s rookie line looks fine but it came too unevenly to make him a reliable fantasy starter: 180 carries for 911 yards and 9 TDs, plus 35-221-1 as a receiver.

Henderson’s scoring came heavily bunched, with nine of his 10 total TDs coming in four games, including two with Rhamondre Stevenson inactive.

Henderson failed to reach 30 rushing yards in seven of 17 regular-season games and topped 20 receiving yards only four times.

That led to 10 weeks outside the top 24 and just four inside the top 12. Henderson finished 25th in PPR points per game and 23rd in half-PPR.

Held Back by Stevenson

In 14 games together, Rhamondre Stevenson led Henderson in snap share (59.3% to 37.5%), route rate (48.8% to 29.2%), and target share (9.1% to 7.4%). 

Henderson held a narrow 133-130 carry edge, but Stevenson dominated the high-value work with a 50% to 27.3% lead in rushes inside the 5-yard line. Henderson scored on just one of his six carries from inside the 5.

A Strong O-Line Paved the Way

Henderson lagged behind Stevenson in most rushing metrics:

Henderson’s 3.16 yards before contact per attempt ranked first among 49 RBs with 100+ carries, a sign of how much help the O-line gave him. Stevenson sat at 1.88, ranking 31st in the same sample.

The Most Surprising Offense of 2025

Drake Maye’s breakout drove New England to second in points per game and third in total yards per game.

Rushing volume was an asset, with New England slotting sixth in rush attempts and eighth in rush rate. The O-line did its part, finishing 11th in adjusted line yards and 12th in ESPN run-block win rate.

Injuries Not Part of the Storyline

Henderson sustained a concussion in the first half of Week 16 but returned the next week.

At Ohio State, Henderson broke a bone in his left foot in September 2022. He also missed three games the following October with an undisclosed injury.

2026 Opportunity & Projection

Can He Overtake Stevenson?

The Patriots return Henderson and Stevenson. Round 7 pick Jam Miller shouldn’t challenge their roles. 

Our projections put Henderson at a 39.5% carry share, just ahead of Stevenson’s 35.5%.

Stevenson’s 10 fumbles over the past two seasons -- seven in 2024 and three in 2025 -- could push more work toward Henderson. But it’s notable that HC Mike Vrabel didn’t alter Stevenson’s role after last year’s fumbles, which came across two early-season games: Week 3 and Week 5.

Henderson said he’s focused on his blocking and pass-catching this offseason, and that work could decide whether he earns a steadier role. He ranked 34th among 43 RBs with 30+ targets in yards per catch (6.4) and 34th in PFF pass-blocking grade last year, while Stevenson ranked top-5 in both. 

A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs give the Patriots more answers in the passing game, and Stevenson should still command work out of the backfield. That makes it hard to project a large receiving role for Henderson. New England’s 18% RB target share last year already landed right near the 17.6% league average.

Pats Look Strong at Pass Catcher, O-line

Maye, Brown, Doubs, and Hunter Henry should keep defenses from loading up against the run.

The O-line also remains in good shape. New England returns LT Will Campbell, RT Morgan Moses, and RG Mike Onwenu, while 2025 LG Jared Wilson shifts to C, his college position. The lone change is at LG, where the Pats will try to get a healthy season from Alijah Vera-Tucker. 

The Pats showed confidence by handing him a three-year deal with $21 million guaranteed, but Vera-Tucker has still missed 41 games over the past four seasons, including all of 2025.

The Pats added insurance with Utah OT Caleb Lomu at pick No. 28, though his profile leans more pass protector than run blocker.

Expect the Pats to Run Less

The Pats return OC Josh McDaniels. 

Our projections have this unit’s run rate falling to 45.2% from 46.9% in 2025, driven by Drake Maye’s Year 2 breakout and the additions of A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs.

Stevenson’s return also figures to limit Henderson’s impact as a pass catcher. Our target share projections have Stevenson at 8.5%, just ahead of Henderson’s 8.0%.

Henderson's Upside Looks Intriguing

Henderson could still grow in his age-24 season and force the Patriots to shift more work his way. Otherwise, Henderson’s fantasy appeal hinges on big-play efficiency. He averaged 5.1 yards per carry and ranked third among 49 RBs with 100+ carries in share of yards from runs of 15+ yards. 

That continued the explosive profile he showed at Ohio State, where he averaged 6.4 yards per carry for his career and 7.1 in his final season.

Henderson would regain an RB1 outlook if Stevenson misses time. We have him 17th among RBs in ceiling projection, though that doesn’t even assume a Stevenson injury.

Will he Remain Hyper Efficient?

If Henderson’s efficiency slips, he could settle in as a low-end RB2 or flex. His receiving and TD outlook already look shakier with Brown and Doubs joining the offense and Stevenson returning for goal-line work, and four of Henderson’s 10 rookie TDs came from 50+ yards, a rate that’ll be tough to repeat.

Rhamondre Stevenson

2025 Role & Results

A Productive Fifth Season

Stevenson turned 130 carries into 603 yards and 7 TDs. He added 32 catches, 345 yards, and a career-high 2 TDs as a receiver.

TreVeyon Henderson’s arrival made Stevenson’s rushing production tough to trust. Stevenson topped 50 rushing yards five times but finished below 20 in four games and managed consecutive 50-yard games just once.

Even with that uneven production, Stevenson finished RB22 in PPR points per game and RB21 in half-PPR. He closed the season with RB5 and RB1 PPR finishes and added another top-10 performance in Week 2.

Outside those spikes, Stevenson logged three finishes between RB13 and RB18, three inside the top 36, and four outside the top 40.

Stevenson Proves to be the Steadier Back

In 14 games together, Stevenson led Henderson in snap share (59.3% to 37.5%), route rate (48.8% to 29.2%), and target share (9.1% to 7.4%). 

Henderson held a narrow 133-130 carry edge, but Stevenson led 50% to 27.3% in rushes inside the 5-yard line, where he scored four of his seven rushing TDs.

Henderson playing all 17 games helped limit Stevenson to just one outing with more than 14 carries (18, Week 7 at Tennessee). Stevenson then took over the backfield in the postseason, beating the rookie 58-30 in carries and 15-6 in targets across four games.

His Efficiency Profile Beat Henderson's

Stevenson held the edge in most efficiency metrics:

Stevenson also performed better in the Pats’ predominant run scheme (man/gap), topping Henderson 4.9 yards per carry to 4.6.

Explosive runs boosted both RBs, with Henderson’s 39.6% explosive run rate just ahead of Stevenson’s 38.1%.

New England Provided an Excellent Environment

A breakout season from Drake Maye drove team rankings of second in points and third in total yards.

New England supplied a favorable rushing environment, ranking sixth in rush attempts and eighth in rush rate. The blocking held up, too, with the O-line finishing 11th in adjusted line yards and 12th in ESPN run-block win rate.

a Toe Injury Halts Progress

A toe injury cost Stevenson three games, and he managed just 6 carries for 5 yards in his first game back (Week 12 at Cincinnati). 

He also missed one game in 2024 with a foot injury and five in 2023 with a high-ankle sprain.

2026 Opportunity & Projection

Pats Will Run it Back

Expect Stevenson and Henderson to power the backfield again.

Our projections give Henderson the carry-share edge over Stevenson, 39.5% to 35.5%. That builds in some Year 2 growth from Henderson and some age-related downside for Stevenson.

We project both backs for 7 TDs, but Stevenson’s 20-pound size edge and last year’s goal-line success keep him positioned for the higher-value rushing chances.

Offense Should Remain One of the Best

Maye, Brown, Doubs, and Hunter Henry give New England enough passing-game firepower to keep defenses honest.

The O-line also remains in good shape. New England returns LT Will Campbell, RT Morgan Moses, and RG Mike Onwenu, while 2025 LG Jared Wilson shifts to center, his college position. The lone change is at LG, where the Pats will try to get a healthy season from Alijah Vera-Tucker. 

The Pats certainly feel confident in his health after handing out a three-year deal with $21 million guaranteed, but he’s missed 41 games over the past four seasons, including all of 2025.

The Pats added insurance with Utah OT Caleb Lomu at pick No. 28, though his profile leans more pass protector than run blocker.

His Volume Probably Won't Spike

The Pats return OC Josh McDaniels. 

Our projections have this unit’s run rate dropping to 45.2%, down from 46.9% in 2025. That’s supported by a Year 2 breakout from Maye and the WR additions of Brown and Doubs.

If Henderson takes the expected Year 2 step, Stevenson will have an even harder time matching last year’s 9.3 carries per game.

Stevenson Could Push for 10+ Tds

New England finished near the top of the league in points and yards last year, and Drake Maye is only entering Year 3. 

It’s not difficult to envision a similar offensive performance, which could put Stevenson back in position to chase double-digit TDs. Barring a Henderson injury, though, that ceiling still likely tops out in mid-range RB2 territory.

He did finish RB12 in PPR points per game in 2022, but that came with an unrepeatable 69 catches and a weaker backfield partner in Damien Harris, who played just 11 games.

Henderson, Ball Security Add Risk

Any progress from Henderson would put Stevenson’s role under pressure. Stevenson’s fumbling history also leaves him vulnerable to a sudden workload shift.

A.J. Brown

2025 Role & Results

He Powered Through a Poor Start

Brown compiled 78 catches, 1,003 yards, and 7 TDs in 15 games. He overcame a slow start that included games of 8, 27, 7, and 43 yards over the first five weeks.

Brown’s season-long profile remained strong: WR12 in PPR points per game and WR13 in half-PPR. He gave fantasy managers four top-12 PPR weeks, four more inside the top-24, and two others inside the top-36. Only one of his five finishes outside the top-45 occurred over his final 10 games.

Last year marked Brown’s fourth straight season between WR7 and WR12 in PPR points per game

No Change to His No. 1 Role

Brown edged DeVonta Smith in target share across 15 shared games, 27.5% to 22.9%. That followed strong, team-high target shares over Brown’s first three seasons in Philadelphia:

• 24.5% (2022)
• 27.4% (2023)
• 31.1% (2024)

Efficiency was a Mixed Bag

Brown tallied career lows in yards per catch (12.7), yards after catch per reception (3.3), and yards per route run (1.96).

It wasn’t all negative. Brown finished sixth out of 110 qualifiers in ESPN’s receiver score -- which tracks a player’s ability to get open, make catches, and generate yards after the catch --  and ranked ninth in ESPN’s open score. That suggests there wasn’t a dropoff in his play.

So what’s behind the dip? Two factors stand out.

Brown's Frustration Hits a Boiling Point

The Eagles broke in Kevin Patullo as OC last year, and his unit finished just 19th in points per game, 20th in yards per play, and 24th in yards per game. Philly also went without scoring a second-half point in six games.

ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reported early in the season that Brown’s “love-hate relationship” with the passing game was a “worst-kept secret inside the league.” Another ESPN report said Brown grew frustrated with Jalen Hurts’ unwillingness to make tight-window throws vs. zone.

Injury History Adds New Entries

Brown missed about one week of training camp with a hamstring injury. He later missed a Week 8 game with another hamstring injury, then rested for Week 18 ahead of the postseason.

Brown’s injury history shows a pattern of knee and hamstring injuries going back to 2020. Still, he played all 17 games in both 2022 and 2023 before a hamstring injury cost him three games in 2024.

After the trade to New England, Brown downplayed any concern over his knees.

"Maybe in four years I’ve missed one game from a shot to the knee,” he said via NESN. “So, that’s nothing to worry about. I’m ready to go.”

2026 Opportunity & Projection

Brown Remains the Top Target

After costing New England a 2028 first-round pick, Brown steps in as the Patriots’ lead target.

Romeo Doubs landed a significant four-year contract that includes $39 million guaranteed, but the gap between him and Brown has been wide to date.

Doubs has never topped 724 receiving yards in a season and led his team in target share twice in four years. Brown has reached 1,000 yards in six of seven seasons and led his team in targets every year.

Our projections have Brown at a 27% target share, well ahead of Doubs’ 18.3% mark. The Pats will fill in the passing game with secondary targets like Hunter Henry, Kayshon Boutte, Demario Douglas, and Kyle Williams. 

Maye Supplies an Upgrade

Drake Maye crushed expectations in a Year 2 breakout, leading the league in completion rate and yards per attempt while topping Brown’s old QB in several other notable metrics:

Maye probably won’t repeat that historic efficiency, but the former third overall pick still looks like an ascending talent capable of supporting Brown’s WR1 outlook.

Expect the Pats to Throw More

OC Josh McDaniels returns after leading an offense that finished 26th in pass rate but fifth in pass rate over expected and 18th in neutral pass rate. A similar pattern showed in the red zone, with New England finishing 16th in RZ pass rate and sixth in RZ pass rate over expected.

We expect more pass volume in 2026 after the Pats upgraded the WR corps.

History Supports Another WR1 Season

A 27% target share, a QB upgrade, and Brown’s long history of WR1 production are plenty to support another high-end season. He has finished top-12 in PPR points per game in five of the past six seasons, with the lone miss coming in 2021 with the Titans.

Can He Stay Healthy and Avoid a Decline?

Brown enters the summer without any known injury concerns, but his lower-body history bears watching after four missed games over the past two seasons. There’s also potential for his play to fall off naturally as a 29-year-old. That’s three years past the average age of peak WR production, according to our historical aging curves.

Romeo Doubs

2025 Role & Results

Doubs' Fantasy Impact Remains Limited

Doubs caught 55 balls for 724 yards and 6 TDs in 16 games. Half of his TDs came in a Week 4 overtime tie at Dallas, a game Christian Watson missed.

Doubs finished tied for 42nd in PPR points per game and 39th in half-PPR. He managed one top-12 PPR week and only two other top-24 finishes. He also had two more weeks at WR25 and eight finishes outside the top 36.

The No. 2 Target For Green Bay

Doubs led the Packers in route rate (72.8%) but slotted second behind Watson in target share (17.6%).

Doubs earned plenty of his catches in contested situations, tying for 14th among WRs in contested-catch opportunities despite finishing just 38th in targets. His 43.3% contested catch rate followed seasons of 66.7% and 53.6%.

His alignment mirrored previous seasons, with 82% of his snaps coming out wide. His average depth of target also fell between 12.1 and 12.9 for the third straight season.

A Career-High in One Efficiency Metric

Doubs’ yards per route run hit a career-high 1.73, up from 1.32 in 2023 and 1.67 in 2024. 

His 13.1 yards per catch and 65.5% catch rate lined up with his career averages. Doubs benefited from a solid connection with QB Jordan Love, who helped supply an 81% catchable target rate, 19th among 76 WRs with 50+ targets.

Packers Supplied a Low-Volume Passing Game

Doubs played 15 of 16 games with Jordan Love, but the Packers ranked 28th in pass rate at 52.3%, their third straight bottom-8 finish in that category.

Doubs also played from Week 2 to Week 7 without both Watson and Jayden Reed. In those games, Doubs recorded PPR finishes of:

• WR35
• WR73
• WR3 (the Dallas game)
• WR31
• WR25

Head Injuries Bear Watching

Doubs missed little regular-season time in 2025. He exited late in Week 10 with a chest injury, returned the next week, and rested in Week 18 with Green Bay’s playoff spot secured. 

The bigger concern is a history of head injuries. He sustained a concussion on November 24, 2024 and another on January 12, 2025.

2026 Opportunity & Projection

Pats Pay Up For a New No. 2

With his rookie deal up, Doubs landed in New England on a four-year, $68 million deal ($39 million guaranteed) that ranks 28th among WRs in average annual value.

Doubs looked like New England’s top WR until the team acquired A.J. Brown for a first-round pick. Brown arrives with proven No. 1 WR production, including 1,000+ yards and 7+ scores in six of seven NFL seasons. 

Our projections have Brown as the clear team leader in targets at 27%, ahead of Doubs (18.3%) and Hunter Henry (15%).

A QB Upgrade

Doubs lands in a rising Patriots offense after Drake Maye’s 2025 breakout. Maye ranked top-4 in:

• yards per game (258.4)
• TDs per game (1.82)
• completion rate (72.0%)
• yards per attempt (8.9)
• success rate (54.7%)

Those numbers came in well ahead of Jordan Love’s:

• 225.4 yards per game
• 1.53 TDs per game
• 66.3% completion rate
• 7.7 yards per attempt
• 50.2% success rate

Maye also beats Doubs’ old QB as an out-of-structure playmaker. Love completed just 33.3% of his throws outside the pocket last season at 4.5 yards per attempt, per SumerSports. Maye checked in at 51.6% and 8.0 YPA. 

Overall, he’s an upgrade in both efficiency and playmaking.

Pats Should Throw a Bit More

OC Josh McDaniels returns after leading an offense that finished 26th in pass rate but fifth in pass rate over expected and 18th in neutral pass rate. A similar pattern showed in the red zone, with New England finishing 16th in RZ pass rate and sixth in RZ pass rate over expected.

Brown and Doubs give New England reason to throw more in Maye’s third season, but we still don’t expect a pass-heavy unit. Our projections have the Patriots at a 54.8% pass rate, up from 53.1% last year.

Doubs Delivers in the Red Zone

Brown limits Doubs’ target-volume upside, making TDs more important to his fantasy case. 

Doubs could become one of Maye’s preferred scoring-area targets after accumulating 15 red zone scores over the past three seasons. That comes in ahead of Henry’s 12 RZ scores and Brown’s 10 over the same stretch.

Maye also showed the passing-TD potential last year with 31 scores. While the 6.3% TD rate was high, Maye’s talent and situation could prompt another strong finish.

Realistically, Doubs could push for weekly WR3 value.

The risk, of course, is that he doesn’t carry over his red-zone prowess and struggles to be more than fantasy bench fodder.

Hunter Henry

2025 Role & Results

Henry Becomes a Viable Streamer

Henry supplied useful totals with 60 catches, 768 yards, and 7 TDs. Only four TEs scored more, helping him finish TE9 in PPR points and TE14 in points per game.

The 31-year-old logged two weeks as the top-scoring PPR tight end and four more inside the top 12, but he also had six weeks outside the top 20.

A Major Red Zone Role

Henry’s 16.7% target share ranked second among Patriots and 15th among TEs. 

Henry made his biggest impact in the red zone, where his 33.8% RZ target share ranked second among all pass catchers and his six end-zone targets trailed only seven TEs.

Efficiency Turns Up Mixed Results

Among 49 TEs with 30+ targets, Henry finished: 

• ninth in yards per target
• 16th in yards after catch per reception
• 17th in yards per route run
• 20th in fantasy points per route

Those finishes aren’t eye-popping, but Henry did post a career-best YAC per reception (5.6) and his highest YPPR (1.67) since 2017.

Maye's Breakout, Weak WR Depth Helped Henry

Drake Maye’s breakout produced 4,394 yards and 31 TDs, but it came on historically high efficiency, with New England finishing just 18th in plays and 23rd in pass attempts.

Henry’s volume benefited from a WR corps that offered little beyond No. 1 Stefon Diggs, who also played a career-low 54.7% of the snaps (adjusted for games missed).

Mack Hollins, 32, finished as the second-most productive WR with 46 catches, 550 yards, and 2 TDs.

Injuries a Non-Issue

Henry has enjoyed a healthy stretch over the past two seasons that included only one missed game (foot issue in 2024). 

He sat out three games with an MCL sprain in 2023.

2026 Opportunity & Projection

Targets Likely to Decline

Henry remains the No. 1 TE.

No. 2 TE Austin Hooper left in free agency, vacating 26 targets. The Pats spent a Round 3 pick on TE Eli Rairdon, but the one-year college starter is unlikely to cut into Henry’s production right away. Beyond Henry’s established role, history is working against Rairdon: Over the past 10 seasons, only 14.6% of TEs drafted in Round 3 or later have reached even 300 yards as rookies. That drops to 6.4% at the 400-yard level.

The bigger concern lies at WR, where New England added A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs. Brown cost New England a 2028 first-round pick and is likely to command more work than Diggs did last year. Diggs drew a 19.7% share. Brown’s target shares in Philly went:

• 24.5% (2022)
• 27.4% (2023)
• 31.1% (2024)
• 27.5% (2025)

Doubs just set career highs in catch rate, yards per catch, and yards per route run, and his deal with $39 million guaranteed makes it clear the team wants more from its No. 2 WR spot.

The WR upgrades explain our lower target-share projection for Henry. We have him at 15%, down nearly two percentage points from 2025.

Same Staff, But a Shift to More Passing is in Play

OC Josh McDaniels returns after leading an offense that finished 26th in pass rate but fifth in pass rate over expected and 18th in neutral pass rate. A similar pattern showed in the red zone, with New England finishing 16th in RZ pass rate and sixth in RZ pass rate over expected.

We project New England to throw more in Maye’s third season, but not enough to offset the added target competition for Henry.

Keep Ceiling Expectations in Check

Henry’s ceiling case likely requires significantly more passing volume to offset the added target competition. That’s possible if Maye keeps growing in Year 3, but even then, Henry’s only TE1 finishes in PPR points per game came much earlier in his career: TE12 in 2021, TE11 in 2020, and TE8 in 2019.

He’s more likely to top out as a priority streamer rather than emerge as a weekly fantasy starter.

New Targets Add Target Downside

Henry faces tougher target competition with Brown and Doubs joining the offense, which could chip away at his excellent 2025 red-zone role.

He’ll also have to absorb likely regression in Maye’s efficiency after last year’s historically high rates of 72% completions and 8.9 yards per attempt.