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        Why The Bengals Are The Safest Bet In Fantasy Football

        The Bengals offer something rare in fantasy football: Certainty. This offense has been one of fantasy football's most reliable engines. And with Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Chase Brown all returning, Cincinnati once again looks like one of the safest bets to deliver fantasy value in 2026.
        By Jared Smola Updated on June 15, 2026 5:34 PM UTC
        Why The Bengals Are The Safest Bet In Fantasy Football

        Cincinnati Bengals 2026 Overview

        Schedule

        Week 1 vs. TB Week 10 vs. PIT
        Week 2 at HOU Week 11 at WAS
        Week 3 at PIT Week 12 vs. NO
        Week 4 vs. JAC Week 13 at CLE
        Week 5 at MIA Week 14 vs. KC
        Week 6 BYE Week 15 at CAR
        Week 7 at BAL Week 16 at IND
        Week 8 vs. TEN Week 17 vs. BAL
        Week 9 vs. ATL Week 18 vs. CLE

        Wins

        2025

        6

        2026 Over/Under

        10.5

        Play Calling

        2025 2026 Projections
        Plays Per Game 62.2 63.2
        Pass Rate 64.0% 63.3%
        Run Rate 36.0% 36.7%

        Key Additions

        • WR Colbie Young
        • TE Jack Endries

        Key Departures

        • TE Noah Fant

        Notable Coaching Changes

        • None

        Joe Burrow

        Headshot of Joe Burrow

        2025 Role & Results

        Injuries Disrupt Another QB1 Season

        A Week 2 toe injury limited Burrow to just eight games last year. He finished with 1,809 passing yards, 17 TDs, and 5 INTs.

        If you throw out the Week 2 game he left early, Burrow averaged 247.6 yards and 2.3 TDs per game. That’s a full-season pace of 4,209 yards and 38.9 TDs, marks that would have ranked fifth and second league-wide.

        Burrow’s 21.4 fantasy points per game across his seven full outings ranked eighth among QBs. He finished as a top-12 QB in five of those seven games, including three top-6 finishes.

        Fourth In Pass Attempts Per Game

        The Bengals stayed pass-heavy with Burrow last year. His 35.1 pass attempts across seven full games trailed only Bo Nix, Patrick Mahomes, and Dak Prescott.

        Burrow averaged just 2.0 carries across those seven games, a career low likely at least partly tied to the toe injury.

        Burrow tied for seventh among QBs in expected fantasy points per game.

        High TD Rate Propped The Production

        Burrow’s efficiency last year was down from its usually lofty heights. Among 42 qualifying QBs, he ranked:

        • 14th in completion rate
        • 13th in completion rate over expected
        • 21st in yards per attempt
        • 12th in adjusted yards per attempt

        Burrow’s 6.6% TD rate was good for fourth, though. He was also the only QB to rank top-10 in Pro Football Focus’ big-time throw rate and turnover-worthy play rate.

        Burrow finished second among those 42 qualifying QBs in PFF passing grade.

        Bengals Stayed Pass Heavy

        The 2025 Bengals ranked top-6 in pass rate (64.0%), neutral pass rate (63.5%), and pass rate over expected (+4.3%), despite Burrow missing nine games and most of a 10th.

        The Bengals’ pass rate surprisingly shrank to 58.4% in Burrow’s seven full games, although they still posted a +4.2% pass rate over expected in those contests.

        Burrow had WR Ja’Marr Chase for all seven of his full games but missed WR Tee Higgins for two of them.

        He played behind a shaky offensive line that ranked 28th in ESPN pass-block win rate and 26th in Pro Football Focus pass-blocking grade.

        A Top-10 Fantasy QB In Four Of Six Seasons

        Burrow’s fantasy-scoring average last year was the second-lowest of his six-year career, ahead of only 2023. Here’s where he finished among QBs in fantasy points per game in his first five seasons:

        • 2020: 15th
        • 2021: ninth
        • 2022: fourth
        • 2023: 25th
        • 2024: second

        Burrow led the league in passing yards (4,918) and TDs (43) in 2024, when he and Chase both played all 17 games.

        Injuries Piling Up

        Injuries have been a regular problem for Burrow. Prior to the Grade 3 turf toe that cost him nine games last year, he missed seven games in 2023 with a torn ligament in his right wrist and six games with a torn ACL, MCL, PCL, and meniscus in his left knee in 2020.

        Burrow also …

        • dislocated his right pinkie in 2021
        • needed an emergency appendectomy during training camp and sprained an MCL in 2022
        • and injured his right calf in training camp in 2023.

        None of those injuries cost him games, but Burrow has admitted that the summer appendectomy and calf injury impacted his play early in those seasons.

        2026 Opportunity & Projection

        Back For Seventh Season With Bengals

        Burrow’s under contract through 2029 on the five-year, $275 million extension he signed in September 2023.

        The Bengals re-signed QB Joe Flacco to a one-year, $6 million deal in March to serve as Burrow’s backup.

        Chase & Higgins Lead A Thin Supporting Cast

        Burrow finds a familiar supporting cast. The Bengals made no significant moves at the skill positions, only adding Day 3 rookies WR Colbie Young and TE Jack Endries. TE Noah Fant departed in free agency, but he totaled just 34 catches for 288 yards and 3 TDs last year.

        Chase and Higgins return as one of the top WR duos in the game. But the WR room gets shaky in a hurry behind them, with Young joining Andrei Iosivas, Mitch Tinsley, and Charlie Jones.

        Fant’s departure leaves Mike Gesicki as Cincinnati’s top pass-catching TE. Tanner Hudson and Drew Sample return after combining for 34 catches last year. We’ll see if the Bengals get anything from 2024 fourth-rounder Erick All, who missed all of 2025 after tearing his right ACL for the second time.

        Chase Brown is a reliable target out of the backfield, totaling 123 catches on an 80.4% catch rate over the last two seasons, albeit at just 6.5 yards per catch.

        Chase and Higgins clearly carry the pass-catching corps, so an injury to either would be a problem for Burrow.

        The offensive line also remains worrisome. The Bengals return all five starters from last year in OTs Orlando Brown Jr. and Amarius Mims, Gs Dalton Risner and Dylan Fairchild, and C Ted Karras.

        Risner, Fairchild, and Karras fared fine in Pro Football Focus pass-blocking grades last year. But Mims and Brown ranked 48th and 56th, respectively, among 75 qualifying OTs.

        This again projects as a subpar offensive line.

        Bengals A Safe Bet To Throw A Ton

        Zac Taylor is back for his seventh season as Bengals HC and offensive play caller. 

        A pass-heavy Taylor offense is one of the safest bets in fantasy football. Here’s where Cincinnati has ranked in pass attempts, pass rate, and neutral pass rate since Burrow arrived:

        Pass Attempts Pass Rate Neutral Pass Rate
        2020 14th 12th 12th
        2021 20th 19th 11th
        2022 6th 5th 2nd
        20237th2nd2nd
        20242nd2nd1st
        20252nd2nd1st

        The Bengals made some key additions to the defense this offseason in DLs Dexter Lawrence, Jonathan Allen, and Boye Mafe, plus S Bryan Cook. 

        Improvement on that side of the ball could have Burrow in fewer shootouts and more positive game scripts this year. But the Bengals remain a good bet to finish top-5 in pass rate.

        Paths to Ceiling

        Burrow remains an efficient passer in a pass-centric offense with one of the best WR duos in the league.

        That ceiling showed up in 2024, when Burrow ranked second among QBs in fantasy points per game. A similar season is within his 2026 range of outcomes.

        Risk Factors

        Injuries are the biggest risk factor for Burrow. He’s missed significant time with injury in three of six NFL seasons. And injuries to either of his top two WRs would leave the pass-catching corps lacking.

        Burrow doesn’t add much with his legs, so he’s reliant on strong passing volume and efficiency.

        Draft Sharks Verdict: 

        Burrow remains an elite passer in a pass-heavy offense with one of the game’s best WR duos in Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. We saw the upside in 2024, when he finished QB2 in fantasy points per game. The risks: Burrow has missed significant time in three of his six NFL seasons and offers little rushing production to buoy his fantasy value. That leaves both his ceiling and floor a bit lower than the other QBs going at the top of your draft. But Burrow’s still a fine target in Round 6 or later.

        Customize his projection for your exact league settings inside the Draft War Room.

        Chase Brown

        Headshot of Chase Brown

        2025 Role & Results

        Receiving Production Fuels RB1 Season

        Brown ran for 1,019 yards and 6 TDs and added another 437 yards and 5 scores on 69 catches across 17 games last year. He finished outside the top 15 RBs in rushing yards and TDs but ranked:

        • fifth in catches
        • sixth in receiving yards
        • third in receiving TDs

        Brown ranked eighth among RBs in PPR points per game, 10th in half-PPR, and 13th in non-PPR.

        Brown was more productive in the three games that included a limited or absent Samaje Perine (Weeks 9, 11, and 12), averaging 17.6 PPR points per game. That pace would have made him RB7 on the season.

        Brown still averaged 16.3 points across 14 games with Perine, which would have made him RB9.

        Most importantly, Brown averaged a massive 21.0 PPR points per game in QB Joe Burrow’s seven full outings. Only four RBs beat that mark last year.

        Samaje Perine Didn't Prevent Strong Usage

        Brown operated as Cincinnati’s lead back all season, though he ceded some passing-down and goal-line work to Perine. Even so, his 66.1% snap rate ranked 10th among RBs, and his 54.2% route rate ranked fifth.

        Brown’s 232 carries ranked just 17th at the position, but his 60.9% carry share ranked seventh. His 87 targets and 13.6% target share both ranked top-6 among RBs.

        Brown tied for just 21st with 18 carries inside the 10-yard line, ceding 8 carries to Perine. Brown out-carried Perine 12-4 inside the 5. Those 12 carries tied for 16th among RBs.

        He also tied for second at the position with six targets inside the 10.

        Brown finished fifth among RBs in expected PPR and half-PPR points per game. If we look at just the 14 games with Perine, he drops to RB6 in PPR and RB10 in half. But Brown’s expected points per game in Burrow’s seven full outings would have made him RB4 in both PPR and half-PPR.

        Brown Popped After Slow Start

        Brown turned in middling efficiency metrics last year. Among 51 RBs with 90+ carries, he ranked:

        • 24th in yards per carry
        • 27th in rush yards over expected per attempt
        • 23rd in yards after contact per attempt
        • 19th in missed tackles forced per attempt
        • 23rd in Pro Football Focus rush grade

        It was a similar story in the passing game, where Brown finished 21st in yards per route and 13th in PFF receiving grade among 40 qualifying RBs.

        It’s worth noting, though, that Brown’s rushing metrics improved significantly after a slow start.

        Weeks 1-6 Weeks 7-18
        Yards Per Carry 2.7 5.2
        Yards After Contact Per Attempt 2.28 3.43
        Missed Tackles Forced Per Attempt 0.14 0.23
        PFF Rush Grade60.181.7

        Defensive attention played a big part in the efficiency jump. Brown saw stacked boxes on 45.0% of his runs in Weeks 1-6 vs. 36.1% in Weeks 7-18, according to Fantasy Points Data. That dropped even further to 31.0% with Burrow back under center for Weeks 13-18.

        Brown’s yards before contact per attempt jumped from 0.69 in Weeks 1-6 to 2.57 in Weeks 7-18.

        A healthy Burrow is clearly a big factor in Brown’s efficiency.

        Bengals Stayed Pass Heavy

        The Bengals offense remained pass-heavy last year, despite missing Burrow for nine games and most of a 10th. Cincinnati ranked:

        • second in pass rate
        • first in neutral pass rate
        • sixth in pass rate over expected

        The Bengals finished 16th in total offensive plays, second in pass attempts, and 29th in rush attempts.

        Brown ran behind an offensive line that produced mixed metrics. The 2025 Bengals ranked 26th in PFF run-blocking grades but 10th in both ESPN run-block win rate and adjusted line yards.

        Brown’s 1.97 yards before contact per attempt (largely an offensive-line stat) ranked 31st among 51 RBs with 90+ carries.

        Brown Building A RB1 Resume

        After playing sparingly as a 2023 rookie behind Joe Mixon, Brown finished 14th among RBs in PPR points per game in 2024.

        He opened that season splitting work with Zack Moss but pulled ahead as the clear backfield leader by midseason. With Moss out for the final eight games, Brown ranked fourth among RBs in PPR points per game.

        He’s now averaged 17.9 PPR points over his last 25 games, dating back to midway through 2024. Only six RBs averaged more than that last year.

        Injury History Is Relatively Light

        Brown played all 17 games last year and only missed the season finale in 2024 with a high-ankle sprain. A hamstring injury cost him four games as a rookie.

        Brown did not suffer any significant injuries in college.

        2026 Opportunity & Projection

        Brown Gets Vote Of Confidence From Bengals

        The Bengals somewhat surprisingly did not make any moves in the backfield this offseason, leaving only Samaje Perine and Tahj Brooks behind Brown.

        That makes Brown a safe bet to, at minimum, play the same role he did last year. And we could even see his role expand. Brown was a much more effective runner than Perine over the final two-thirds of last season. And he easily beat Perine in yards per route (1.09 to 0.48) and PFF receiving grade (71.9 to 60.3).

        Brown might need to improve in pass protection to see more passing-down work, though. His 27.7 PFF pass-blocking grade ranked 31st among 40 qualifying RBs. (Perine earned a 39.1 grade, which is also weak.)

        Brooks carried just 16 times for 45 yards as a sixth-round rookie last year. He’s a much bigger threat to Perine’s No. 2 job than to Brown.

        Offense Will Score, But O-Line Remains A Concern

        A healthy Joe Burrow is key to Brown’s 2026 outlook. The Bengals averaged 26.1 points in Burrow’s seven full games last year vs. 23.1 in the other 10. And, as mentioned earlier, Brown scored as the PPR RB5 in Burrow’s seven full games.

        The pass-catching corps around Brown looks much the same. Cincinnati lost TE Noah Fant in free agency and added Day 3 rookies WR Colbie Young and TE Jack Endries, but none of those moves should alter Brown’s outlook.

        WRs Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins return as the top two targets. But Brown looks like the favorite to finish third after doing so last year.

        The Bengals also return all five offensive line starters from last year in OTs Orlando Brown and Amarius Mims, Gs Dalton Risner and Dylan Fairchild, and C Ted Karras.

        Risner was the only one of those five to finish in the top half of his position in PFF run-blocking grades last year.

        Bengals Will Stay Pass Heavy Under Taylor

        Zac Taylor is back for his seventh season as Bengals HC and offensive play caller. 

        Taylor’s offense going pass-heavy is one of the most bankable things in all of fantasy football. Here’s where Cincinnati has ranked in pass rate and neutral pass rate since Burrow arrived:

        Pass Attempts Pass Rate Neutral Pass Rate
        2020 14th 12th 12th
        2021 20th 19th 11th
        2022 6th 5th 2nd
        20237th2nd2nd
        20242nd2nd1st
        20252nd2nd1st

        None of Taylor’s offenses have ranked in the top half of the league in rush attempts, with five of seven finishing 24th or lower.

        The offense has been about league average in terms of RB fantasy production with Burrow, though. Here’s where Cincinnati has ranked in total RB PPR points over the last six seasons:

        • 2020: 20th
        • 2021: 14th
        • 2022: 6th
        • 2023: 22nd
        • 2024: 16th
        • 2025: 18th

        Prior to Brown’s run as lead back the past two seasons, Joe Mixon finished as a top-12 PPR RB in each of the previous four years. So the Bengals have produced a top-14 RB in all six of Burrow’s seasons.

        Paths to Ceiling

        Brown is the favorite to lead Bengals RBs in carries, goal-line carries, and targets this season. If Burrow stays healthy and the offense bounces back, Brown’s fantasy ceiling will climb into the top-6 at his position.

        Risk Factors

        Burrow’s durability problems (major injuries in three of six seasons) and Cincinnati’s subpar offensive line are the biggest risks to Brown’s fantasy value. Both could torpedo his efficiency, which is important for Brown considering he doesn’t project for huge rushing volume.

        Draft Sharks Verdict: 

        Brown scored as a RB1 last year and was even better with a healthy Joe Burrow, pacing for a RB5 finish in PPR points per game. He remains the clear lead back heading into 2026 and could even grow his role after outplaying Samaje Perine for much of last season. The biggest concerns are Cincinnati's shaky offensive line and Burrow's durability. But Brown enters 2026 as a fringe RB1 with top-5 upside if the Bengals stay healthy.

        Customize his projection for your exact league settings inside the Draft War Room.

        Ja'Marr Chase

        2025 Role & Results

        Chase Posts Huge Season (Despite Burrow Injury)

        Chase caught 125 balls for 1,412 yards and 8 TDs in 16 games last year, missing one on suspension for spitting in Steelers DB Jalen Ramsey’s face. 

        Chase ranked top-9 among WRs in catches, yards, and TDs. He finished third at the position in both PPR and half-PPR points per game.

        Surprisingly, Chase was more productive without Joe Burrow last year, averaging 21.2 PPR points in nine games without him vs. 17.8 in Burrow’s seven full games. But even that lower mark would have ranked sixth among WRs.

        Chase Leads In Routes And Targets

        Chase led all WRs in pass routes (613), despite missing a game. His 94.2% route rate also led the position.

        Chase drew a target on 30.0% of his routes, the sixth-highest rate among 109 WRs who ran 200+ routes last year. His 30.2% target share ranked third among those 109. Chase’s 185 total targets led the league, 13 clear of any other WR.

        His role near the end zone wasn’t quite as large. Chase commanded:

        • 26.2% of Cincinnati’s red-zone targets (eighth among WRs)
        • 19.5% of the targets inside the 10-yard line (33rd)
        • 20.5% of the end-zone targets

        As a result, Chase ranked “just” 10th among WRs with 7.4 expected TDs.

        But he still led the position with 19.4 expected PPR points per game, 0.9 more than No. 2 Puka Nacua.

        Chase’s volume took a slight hit with Burrow:

        Burrow's 7 Full Games Other 9 Games
        Targets Per Route 0.28 0.31
        Target Share 28.6% 31.4%
        Expected PPR PPG 17.6 20.9

        Those marks with Burrow all would have still ranked top-8 among WRs.

        Underlying Metrics Remain Elite

        Chase hauled in 67.6% of his targets but averaged a career-low 11.3 yards per catch last year. His 7.6 yards per target also set a career low and ranked 39th among 76 WRs with 50+ targets.

        Chase fared much better in yards per route. His 2.23 in that department ranked 12th among those 76 WRs.

        In film-based metrics, Chase finished:

        • fourth in Pro Football Focus receiving grade
        • seventh in ESPN receiver score
        • sixth in Fantasy Points separation score

        Chase averaged more yards per target with Burrow but fared better in yards per route and fantasy points per route without him.

        Burrow's 7 Full Games Other 9 Games
        Yards Per Target 8.01 7.59
        Yards Per Route 2.15 2.29
        Fantasy Points Per Route 0.48 0.54

        Bengals Stay Pass Heavy

        The 2025 Bengals ranked top-6 in pass rate (64.0%), neutral pass rate (63.5%), and pass rate over expected (+4.3%), despite Burrow missing nine games and most of a 10th.

        The pass rate surprisingly shrank to 58.4% in Burrow’s seven full games, although they still posted a +4.2% pass rate over expected in those contests.

        Cincinnati’s pass protection was shaky, with the offensive line ranking 28th in ESPN pass block win rate and 26th in Pro Football Focus pass-blocking grade.

        Five Straight Top-13 Finishes

        Chase’s WR3 finish in PPR points per game last year followed a WR1 finish in 2024. 

        Chase and Burrow played all 17 games that season, resulting in a huge 127-1,708-17 receiving line. Chase’s 23.7 PPR points per game were the 15th-most in NFL history and the fourth-most among the last 10 seasons.

        That followed WR6, WR3, and WR13 finishes in PPR points per game in his first three seasons. Chase ranks second to only Puka Nacua with 19.6 PPR points per game over the past five years.

        And there have been no signs of decline. Chase earned a career-best 90.1 PFF receiving grade last year. Two of his three best yards-per-route averages have come in the past two seasons. And at 26, he’s right at peak age according to our aging-curve research.

        He's Been Relatively Healthy

        Chase has missed only five games due to injury across five NFL seasons. A hip fracture cost him four games in 2022, and an AC joint sprain in his right shoulder sidelined him for one game in 2023.

        Chase didn’t suffer any significant injuries in college, although he did tear his PCL as a high school senior in 2017.

        2026 Opportunity & Projection

        Chase Will Remain A Target Hog

        Chase returns to a nearly identical situation as last year after the Bengals made no major moves at the skill positions. 

        TE Noah Fant, who caught 34 balls for just 288 yards and 3 TDs last year, departed in free agency. WR Colbie Young and TE Jack Endries arrived on Day 3 of the draft but are unlikely to be significant factors this season.

        Tee Higgins returns as Cincinnati’s No. 2 WR. But Chase will remain the alpha.

        A Healthy Burrow Remains Key

        Chase's production surprisingly spiked during Burrow's absence last season. Historically, though, his fantasy value has been closely tied to his QB. Including the playoffs, Chase has averaged 20.4 PPR points in 70 games with Burrow compared to 15.5 in 15 games without him.

        Burrow has had a healthy offseason and remains one of the best passers in the NFL.

        Cincinnati’s offensive line isn’t nearly as strong. It returns all five starters from last year in OTs Orlando Brown and Amarius Mims, Gs Dalton Risner and Dylan Fairchild, and C Ted Karras.

        Risner, Fairchild, and Karras fared fine in PFF pass-blocking grades last year. But Mims and Brown ranked 48th and 56th, respectively, among 75 qualifying OTs.

        This again projects as a subpar offensive line, although that’s never stopped Chase from putting up big numbers.

        Bengals A Safe Bet To Stay Pass Heavy

        Zac Taylor is back for his seventh season as Bengals HC and offensive play caller. 

        Taylor’s offense going pass-heavy is one of the most bankable things in all of fantasy football. Here’s where Cincinnati has ranked in pass attempts, pass rate, and neutral pass rate since Burrow arrived:

        Pass Attempts Pass Rate Neutral Pass Rate
        2020 14th 12th 12th
        2021 20th 19th 11th
        2022 6th 5th 2nd
        20237th2nd2nd
        20242nd2nd1st
        20252nd2nd1st

        The Bengals made some key additions to the defense this offseason in DLs Dexter Lawrence, and Jonathan Allen, and Boye Mafe, plus S Bryan Cook. 

        Improvement on that side of the ball could have the team in fewer shootouts and more positive game scripts. But the Bengals are still a good bet to finish top-5 in pass rate.

        Paths to Ceiling

        Chase remains one of the biggest talents in the game and plays in a pass-happy offense with very little target competition beyond Higgins.

        If Burrow stays healthy, there’s clearly a path for Chase to lead all WRs in fantasy points, as he did in 2024.

        Risk Factors

        Burrow’s health is the biggest risk to Chase’s fantasy value. Burrow has missed significant time in three of six NFL seasons.

        Chase’s career 15.5 PPR points per game without Burrow would have ranked 10th among WRs last year. Consider that his floor.

        Draft Sharks Verdict: 

        Chase is one of the safest picks in fantasy football: An elite talent in his prime returning to the same pass-happy offense quarterbacked by Joe Burrow. Chase has finished as a top-6 PPR WR in four of five NFL seasons and is a good bet to do it again in 2026. He’s a top-five pick across fantasy formats and in the running to go No. 1 overall in PPR drafts.

        Customize Chase's projection for your exact league settings inside the Draft War Room.

        Tee Higgins

        Headshot of Tee Higgins

        2025 Role & Results

        Higgins Scores As A WR2, Despite Burrow Injury

        Higgins caught 59 balls for 846 yards and 11 TDs across 15 games last season, finishing 16th among WRs in PPR points per game and 13th in half-PPR.

        He did that despite playing nine of those 15 games without QB Joe Burrow. Higgins averaged 13.2 PPR points per game without Burrow vs. 15.2 with him. The latter mark ranked 14th among WRs.

        Red-Zone Role Fuels Production

        Higgins drew a target on 19% of his routes last season and saw a 17.1% target share in his 15 games. Those marks ranked just 53rd and 45th, respectively, among 76 WRs with 50+ targets.

        Higgins’ volume improved slightly with Burrow:

        6 Games With Burrow 9 Games Without Burrow
        Targets Per Route 0.20 0.19
        Target Share 18.4% 16.3%

        Higgins’ usage was helped by a big 13.5-yard average target depth that ranked 14th among those 76 WRs. His 33.4% share of his team’s air yards ranked 28th.

        Higgins was a big part of the red-zone plan, too. Despite missing two games, he ranked:

        • 19th among WRs in red-zone targets (14)
        • sixth in end-zone targets (12)

        Higgins’ 7.9 expected receiving TDs ranked eighth among all WRs, notably just ahead of teammate Ja’Marr Chase (7.4).

        Still, Higgins’ 12.0 expected PPR points per game ranked just 27th at the position. That climbed to 12.9 in six games with Burrow, a full-season pace of WR20.

        Burrow's Absence Hurt The Efficiency

        A career-high average target depth coincided Higgins’ second-lowest career catch rate (60.2%) but third-highest yards per catch (14.3). His 8.6 yards per target was down a bit from the 9.0-yard average over his first five seasons and ranked 19th among 76 qualifying WRs.

        Higgins also registered a career-low 1.62 yards per route last year. That ranked 35th among those 76 WRs.

        Not surprisingly, though, Higgins was more efficient with Burrow:

        6 Games With Burrow 9 Games Without Burrow
        Yards Per Target 9.0 8.4
        Yards Per Route 1.80 1.50
        Fantasy Points Per Route0.470.40

        Higgins also fared well in film-based metrics. Among those 76 qualifying WRs, he ranked:

        • 17th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade
        • ninth in ESPN receiver score

        Bengals Stayed Pass Heavy

        The 2025 Bengals ranked top-6 in pass rate (64.0%), neutral pass rate (63.5%), and pass rate over expected (plus-4.3%), despite Burrow missing nine games and most of a 10th.

        The pass rate surprisingly shrank to 58.4% in Burrow’s seven full games, although they still posted a +4.2% pass rate over expected in those contests.

        Cincinnati’s pass protection was shaky, with the offensive line ranking 28th in ESPN pass-block win rate and 26th in Pro Football Focus pass-blocking grade.

        Strong 2025 Followed Career-Best 2024

        Higgins’ WR16 finish in PPR points per game last year followed a career-best WR5 finish in 2024. 

        He missed five games that season, but Burrow played all 17. That resulted in personal highs for Higgins in catches per game (6.1) and TDs per game (0.83). His 75.9 yards per game were the second-most of his career.

        Higgins also earned a career-best 88.3 PFF receiving grade in 2024, while his 2.05 yards per route was his second-best mark.

        The downturn in volume and efficiency last season was likely more due to Burrow’s absence than a significant decline in Higgins’ game. At 27, Higgins should still be at 94-98% of his peak production, according to our aging-curve research.

        You Know About The Injury History ...

        Injuries have been a major factor throughout Higgins’ career. He’s missed 12 games and parts of a bunch more across his six NFL seasons with:

        • Five hamstring injuries
        • Three concussions
        • Three ankle injuries
        • One shoulder injury
        • One quad injury
        • One rib injury

        The hamstring injuries and concussions are particularly worrisome and make Higgins one of the bigger injury risks in fantasy football.

        2026 Opportunity & Projection

        Higgins Remains Clear No. 2 Target

        Higgins returns to a nearly identical situation as last year after the Bengals made no major moves at the skill positions. 

        TE Noah Fant, who caught 34 balls for just 288 yards and 3 TDs last year, departed in free agency. WR Colbie Young and TE Jack Endries arrived on Day 3 of the draft but are unlikely to make significant contributions this season.

        Ja’Marr Chase returns as the leader of this passing attack, but Higgins is locked in as the No. 2.

        Burrow's Health Is Key

        A healthy Burrow is key to Higgins’ fantasy value. 

        He’s averaged 15.3 PPR points per game with Burrow vs. 12.5 without him for his career. That would have been the difference between a WR10 and WR24 finish last year.

        Bengals A Safe Bet To Stay Pass Heavy

        Zac Taylor is back for his seventh season as Bengals HC and offensive play caller. 

        Taylor’s offense going pass-heavy is one of the most bankable things in all of fantasy football. Here’s where Cincinnati has ranked in pass attempts, pass rate, and neutral pass rate since Burrow arrived:

        Pass Attempts Pass Rate Neutral Pass Rate
        2020 14th 12th 12th
        2021 20th 19th 11th
        2022 6th 5th 2nd
        20237th2nd2nd
        20242nd2nd1st
        20252nd2nd1st

        The Bengals made some key additions to the defense this offseason in DLs Dexter Lawrence, and Jonathan Allen, and Boye Mafe, plus S Bryan Cook. 

        Improvement on that side of the ball could have the team in fewer shootouts and more positive game scripts. But the Bengals are still a good bet to finish top-5 in pass rate.

        Paths to Ceiling

        Higgins remains the clear No. 2 target in a pass-happy offense with strong QB play. That gives him upside well into the top-12 WRs, as we saw in 2024 when Higgins finished fifth in PPR points per game.

        Risk Factors

        Injuries are the biggest risk on Higgins’ profile, both for himself and his QB. He’s missed 12 games and parts of many more across his six NFL seasons, while Joe Burrow has missed significant time in three of his six campaigns.

        It’s tough to imagine Higgins falling outside the top 24 WRs when he and Burrow are healthy. Another injury-riddled season, though, could drag him below that range.

        Draft Sharks Verdict: 

        Higgins remains one of fantasy football's biggest gambles. He's the clear No. 2 target in one of the NFL's pass-heaviest offenses and has flashed top-5 fantasy upside as recently as 2024. But Higgins has battled a long list of injuries throughout his career, and QB Joe Burrow's health is critical to his fantasy value. Higgins is a strong WR2 with WR1 upside when he and his QB are healthy. The challenge is getting a full season from both.

        Customize Higgins' projection for your exact league settings inside the Draft War Room.

        Mike Gesicki

        Headshot of Mike Gesicki

        2025 Role & Results

        One Big Week Boosts Otherwise Useless Production

        Gesicki caught 28 balls for 307 yards and 2 TDs across 13 games last year. He ranked 39th among TEs in PPR points per game and 37th in half-PPR.

        Gesicki finished TE2 in Week 14 but had just one other top-12 week. He ranked outside the top 25 in 10 of 13 outings.

        Gesicki was significantly more productive with QB Joe Burrow. He averaged 7.4 PPR points in seven games with Burrow vs. just 3.2 in six games without him, although that was largely due to that big Week 14.

        He Played A Part-Time Role

        Gesicki ran a route on 46.3% of pass plays across his 13 games, ranking 35th among TEs. His 0.18 targets per route and 8.9% target share ranked 32nd and 34th, respectively, among 40 TEs with 200+ routes.

        Gesicki finished TE35 in both expected PPR and half-PPR points per game.

        The Efficiency Was Middling

        Gesicki hauled in 66.7% of his targets and averaged 11.0 yards per catch last year.

        Among those 40 TEs with 200+ routes, he ranked:

        • 22nd in yards per target
        • 29th in yards per route

        Bengals Stayed Pass Heavy

        The 2025 Bengals ranked top-6 in pass rate (64.0%), neutral pass rate (63.5%), and pass rate over expected (plus-4.3%), despite Burrow missing nine games and most of a 10th.

        The pass rate surprisingly shrank to 58.4% in Burrow’s seven full games, although they still posted a +4.2% pass rate over expected in those contests.

        Cincinnati’s pass protection was shaky, with the offensive line ranking 28th in ESPN pass-block win rate and 26th in Pro Football Focus pass-blocking grade.

        A Healthier Higgins Hurt Gesicki

        Gesicki posted a 65-665-2 receiving line in his Bengals debut in 2024, finishing TE19 in PPR points per game. Much of that production came with WR Tee Higgins out, though. Gesicki averaged 13.8 PPR points per game without Higgins but just 6.8 with him.

        His playing time, volume, and per-route efficiency sank from 2024 to 2025:

        2024 2025
        Route Rate 56.8% 46.3%
        Target Share 12.6% 8.9%
        Targets Per Route 0.20 0.18
        Yards Per Route1.621.29

        Last Year's Injury Was Worst Of Career

        Gesicki missed four games last year with a left pectoral injury suffered in Week 6.

        He missed just one total game with injury across his first seven NFL seasons, with a right shoulder sprain in 2020.

        2026 Opportunity & Projection

        Bengals TE Room Remains Crowded

        The Bengals lost TE Noah Fant in free agency this offseason. In 11 games together last year:

        • Gesicki ran more routes than Fant (44.1% to 23.6%)
        • And saw more targets (37 to 24)

        Fant’s departure presents only a slight upgrade to Gesicki’s situation.

        The Bengals return TEs Tanner Hudson and Drew Sample, who totaled 34 targets across Gesicki’s 13 games last season. The team also added TE Jack Endries in Round 7 of this spring’s draft and gets TE Erick All back after he missed all of 2025 with a second right ACL tear.

        Gesicki is the favorite to lead the crowded TE room in targets, but don’t expect him to dominate.

        Cincinnati also returns WRs Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, who will be the clear top two targets. And RB Chase Brown has racked up 153 targets over the past two years.

        Bengals A Safe Bet To Stay Pass Heavy

        Zac Taylor is back for his seventh season as Bengals HC and offensive play caller. 

        Taylor’s offense going pass-heavy is one of the most bankable things in all of fantasy football. Here’s where Cincinnati has ranked in pass attempts, pass rate, and neutral pass rate since Burrow arrived:

        Pass Attempts Pass Rate Neutral Pass Rate
        2020 14th 12th 12th
        2021 20th 19th 11th
        2022 6th 5th 2nd
        20237th2nd2nd
        20242nd2nd1st
        20252nd2nd1st

        Paths to Ceiling

        Gesicki averaged 13.8 PPR points in five games without Higgins back in 2024. That would have ranked fourth among TEs in 2024 and fifth last year.

        Another injury to Higgins or Chase could force Gesicki back into a significant role in Cincinnati’s pass-heavy offense.

        Risk Factors

        Chase, Higgins, and Brown are better target bets than Gesicki. And the TE room is crowded, especially with the addition of rookie Jack Endries and return of Erick All.

        Draft Sharks Verdict: 

        Gesicki remains attached to one of the NFL's pass-heaviest offenses, but it's tough to find a path to consistent fantasy value thanks to Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Chase Brown. Gesicki's role and efficiency both declined in 2025, and Cincinnati's crowded TE room adds another obstacle to meaningful volume. He could deliver spot-start value if injuries strike the Bengals' top pass catchers, but he's not worth a roster spot in most fantasy leagues.

        Customize Gesicki's projection for your exact league settings inside the Draft War Room.

        Jared Smola Author Image
        Jared Smola, Lead Analyst
        Jared has been with Draft Sharks since 2007. He’s now Lead Analyst, heading up the preseason and weekly projections that fuel your Draft War Room and in-season tools. He currently ranks ninth among 173 analysts in draft rankings accuracy.

        In This Article

        Mike Gesicki
        CIN TE
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        Joe Burrow
        CIN QB
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        Tee Higgins
        CIN WR
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        Ja'Marr Chase
        CIN WR
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        Chase Brown
        CIN RB
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        Other rankings are stale  before the 2nd round.

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