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Top Picks for Week 3 Underdog Pick Em

By Matt Schauf 1:35pm EDT 9/21/22


Let’s get this going early this week to try to take advantage of some pre-movement yardage props.

We know these lines are likely to get sharper as we get closer to kickoffs. So although posting this Wednesday instead of Friday (as I did the past 2 weeks) robs us of props that have yet to go live, it gives us a jump on some early action.

As with the 1st 2 weeks, you’ll find some particular standouts in passing yardage. Our highlighted lines have fared well in that area through 2 weeks, and the receivers joined them last week.

Overall, I highlighted 25 yardage over/unders for Week 2. One was Alvin Kamara, who went inactive. Sixteen of the remaining 24 hit. That included a 7-3 record on 10 passing-yard lines and 8-3 in receiving yards.

(And frankly, missing Darren Waller felt like we got cheated. His 50 yards fell just 2 short of going over, despite the TE snagging 6 passes. That 8.3-yard average checked in 3.5 short of his career mark.)

That all followed another 16-8 mark on healthy players from Week 1.

Let’s see about this week …

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Passing

Mac Jones, QB, Patriots
Draft Sharks projection: 249.1 yards
Underdog: 215.5
Difference: 33.6

Ryan Tannehill, QB, Titans
DS: 231
Underdog: 207.5
Difference: 23.5

Davis Mills, QB, Texans
DS: 239.1
Underdog: 218.5
Difference: 20.6

Mitchell Trubisky, QB, Steelers
DS: 222.3
Underdog: 207.5
Difference: 14.8

Joe Flacco, QB, Jets
DS: 246.7
Underdog: 236.5
Difference: 10.2

Not as many entries yet this week, with plenty of lines surely yet to post. But Mac Jones stands out, especially against a Baltimore defense that has so far allowed 307 yards to Joe Flacco and 469 to Tua Tagovailoa. And even if you don’t feel comfy stacking him with any single New England pass-catcher right now, there are options from the other sideline (and we need at least 1 player from another team, anyway).


Receiving

Zay Jones, WR, Jaguars
Draft Sharks projection: 45.2
Underdog: 32.5
Difference: 12.7

Rashod Bateman, WR, Ravens
DS: 60.4
Underdog: 48.5
Difference: 11.9

Brandin Cooks, WR, Texans
DS: 69.7
Underdog: 59.5
Difference: 10.2

D.J. Moore, WR, Panthers
DS: 63.8
Underdog: 54.5
Difference: 9.3

Davante Adams, WR, Raiders
DS: 80.4
Underdog: 89.5
Difference: -9.1

Robert Woods, WR, Titans
DS: 38.3
Underdog: 45.5
Difference: -7.2

Rashod Bateman gets the same yardage prop here that he carried each of the first 2 weeks, despite going over that number in each of those games. Granted, we can’t expect him to keep averaging 27.8 yards per reception. But it’s also unlikely that his team keeps jumping out to large halftime leads. And if that does continue, the positive performance from the Baltimore offense is likely to include its top receiver more often than not.

Here he works as a nice stack with Mac Jones’ prop on the other side.

I’m not sure I’m ready to bet on D.J. Moore again after he posted just 43 receiving yards in each of the first 2 games. But he did go for 79+ yards in 3 of the past 4 meetings with New Orleans … for whatever that’s worth.


Rushing

Leonard Fournette, RB, Buccaneers
Draft Sharks projection: 82.2 yards
Underdog: 64.5
Difference: 17.7

Dameon Pierce, RB, Texans
DS: 67.9
Underdog: 54.5
Difference: 13.4

James Robinson, RB, Jaguars
DS: 61
Underdog: 49.5
Difference: 11.5

Najee Harris, RB, Steelers
DS: 63
Underdog: 53.5
Difference: 9.5

Breece Hall, RB, Jets
DS: 37.6
Underdog: 28.5
Difference: 9.1

I’m a little wary of the Robinson prop, with the Jaguars 7-point underdogs at the Chargers this week. He got just 11 carries in a Week 1 game that found them chasing Washington. Robinson did get to 66 yards on the ground in that game – and over our Week 3 projection last week as well – but he’s not a great bet to average 6.0 yards per rush in any contest. The early money on the Draft Kings sportsbook is leaning slightly under his 49.5 line.

I have, on the other hand, already bet on Najee Harris’ over for total yards (77.5) in the Thursday night game against Cleveland. We have him projected over his rushing line by 1 more yard compared with the total-yards prop, but I like that total yards keeps me from having to decide whether he’ll outperform as a rusher or receiver. I just believe he’ll stay involved either way. I also bet over on Kareem Hunt’s total yards (62.5) in that game for the same reason, even though our projection only goes 1.4 yards over his Underdog line there.

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