FF Tips

Using Vegas Odds to Find Fantasy Football Values

By Jared Smola 9:08am EDT 8/26/16

We debuted this article last year to mixed results. Let’s recap …

The Good:

  • Vegas odds highlighted Ben Roethlisberger and Eli Manning as the 2 most undervalued QBs. Big Ben was a top 6 QB in his 11 healthy games; Manning outperformed his ADP by a few spots.
  • The odds told us that Andrew Luck, Tony Romo and Ryan Tannehill were overvalued. Correct on all 3, although it was injuries that brought Luck and Romo down.
  • Vegas warned us away from Eddie Lacy, giving him just the 6th highest odds to win the rushing title. His ADP was at RB3.
  • Dez Bryant and Randall Cobb were highlighted as overvalued WRs. Both hits — albeit injury related again.

The Bad:

  • Peyton Manning and Matt Ryan came up as value QBs according to Vegas. Both were busts last year.
  • The odds said to stay away from Philip Rivers, who outperformed his ADP by 4 spots.
  • Alfred Morris, Joseph Randle and DeMarco Murray popped up as 3 of the biggest values at RB. Ouch.
  • Lamar Miller and Mark Ingram were viewed as overvalued by Vegas odds. They ranked 5th and 12th, respectively, among RBs in PPR points.
  • Vegas liked Colts WRs T.Y. Hilton and Andre Johnson. Both disappointed — Hilton because of Luck’s injury and Johnson because he’s washed-up.

As we mentioned in last year’s article, you shouldn’t make sweeping changes to your fantasy football rankings based on this info. It’s certainly not a perfect process.

Vegas only offers odds for passing yards for QBs, rushing yards for RBs and receiving yards for WR. That’s only part of the fantasy football equation. It doesn’t include a variety of scoring plays — TDs, catches, receiving yards for RBs, etc.

But consider this another small piece of the puzzle to consider on draft day.

The tables below show each player’s odds (the lower the number, the more likely) to lead the league in his respective category, as well as his overall ADP in MyFantasyLeague.com drafts since August 1. The “Value” column is calculated by dividing the odds by the ADP. The lower the number, the better the value. We’ve highlighted good values in green and bad values in red.

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