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Fantasy Football Start Sit Week 17: Stevenson To The Rescue
It all comes down to one final week. There is no margin for error in Week 17, whether you're targeting the Arizona Cardinals' excellent matchup or fading the Chiefs; championships are on the line. Here's who you can trust and who you should bench in the fantasy finale.
The right lineup decisions, powered by Draft Sharks rankings, can make all the difference.
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Quarterbacks
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One last run for Jacoby Brissett and the Cardinals
Jacoby Brissett, Arizona Cardinals
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Brissett’s run of nine straight top-12 finishes ended last week, but he’s well positioned to rebound in Week 17.
The Cardinals travel to Cincinnati to face a Bengals defense that has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to QBs.
Cincinnati has surrendered 28 TD passes, tied for third-most in the league, and gives up the fourth-most passing yards per game (246.8). Seven opposing QBs have already posted top-12 finishes against them.
Since taking over in Week 6, Brissett has averaged 291.1 passing yards and 2 total TDs per game. This matchup carries the week’s highest total (53.5), setting up shootout conditions and giving Brissett a strong chance at one more top-12 finish.
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Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
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Goff draws one of the toughest matchups on the slate. Minnesota has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to QBs and a league-low 15 total TDs to the position.
Goff threw for 284 yards and 2 TDs against the Vikings in Week 9, but Brian Flores’ defense has been dominant since. Minnesota has not allowed a TD pass in its last six games and has given up only 154 passing yards per game during that stretch.
The Vikings have been more vulnerable on the ground, allowing the sixth-most rushing yards per game (114.4) over their last five. Dan Campbell is likely to lean on his backfield, limiting Goff’s volume in a matchup where passing lanes will be scarce.
Running Backs
Rhamondre Stevenson delivers the volume to carry championship lineups
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Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots
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Since Week 8, New England has used a two-man backfield with Stevenson playing 63% of the snaps and TreVeyon Henderson 56%. Henderson has handled more carries and targets during that stretch, but he exited Week 16 with a concussion and has not practiced.
Stevenson played every offensive snap after Henderson left and finished with 78 scrimmage yards and a TD. Most players miss at least one game after entering concussion protocol, so Stevenson is the favorite to dominate backfield touches in an ideal matchup. The Patriots face a Jets defense that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to RBs.
D’Ernest Johnson is the only other RB on the roster and has five carries all season. Even if Henderson suits up, he is unlikely to return to his previous workload. Stevenson is set for heavy usage and carries top-12 upside against a defense that has surrendered a league-worst 23 TDs to RBs.
Michael Carter, Arizona Cardinals
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Carter managed just 6.5 PPR points last week and fell short of dominating work in the first game after Bam Knight landed on IR. But Week 16 marked Carter’s sixth straight game leading Cardinals RBs in snaps and his second consecutive outing with double-digit carries. Despite his lack of catches, Carter even edged Emari Demercado 17-10 in routes.
The fact that Carter drew just 50% of the team’s RB carries for the game and shared playing time with both Demercado and Corey Kiner adds risk to his Week 17 profile. But the matchup counters that with enticing upside.
Cincinnati has allowed the most fantasy points to RBs and a league-high 19 top-24 RB finishes, including 12 top-12 weeks.
Carter’s no sure thing, but carries upside beyond his RB24 spot in our PPR rankings.
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Rico Dowdle, Carolina Panthers
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Dowdle opened the season as Carolina’s lead back, playing 67% of snaps and handling 70% of the carries from Weeks 5-11. Since Week 12, Chuba Hubbard has cut into that role. Dowdle holds only a 57-40% carry lead during that span and has logged two games with fewer than 10 attempts.
His efficiency has dipped as well. Dowdle posted 32 rushing yards last week and has been under 3.3 yards per carry in three straight games.
That’s unlikely to improve against Seattle. The Seahawks have allowed the fifth-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points to RBs and hold opponents to a league-best 3.5 yards per carry.
Dowdle has finished outside the top 30 RBs in two of his last three games and is unlikely to rebound in a brutal matchup.
Breece Hall, New York Jets
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The Jets rank last in the league in passing yards per game (145.9) and are down to their third-string QB. Defenses have focused entirely on stopping Hall. Since Brady Cook took over, Hall has averaged 2.85 yards per carry and 6.1 PPR points per game and has not posted a top-36 finish since Week 13.
This week brings another uphill battle. The Patriots have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to RBs. They held Hall to 64 yards on 16 touches in Week 11 and enter Week 17 as 12.5-point favorites. That game script threatens to erase Hall’s rushing volume once again.
With the Jets implied for only 15 points, Hall is a low-floor play.
Wide Receivers
The 49ers stay hot
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Jauan Jennings, San Francisco 49ers
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San Francisco has won five straight while averaging 34.4 points per game. Jennings has been a major beneficiary, scoring five TDs during the run and delivering top-20 PPR finishes in each of his last four outings.
Week 17 lines up well for him to stay hot. The 49ers host a Bears defense that has allowed the second-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to WRs and 19 TD receptions. Only Dallas and Detroit have allowed more.
Ricky Pearsall remains sidelined, and with the 49ers already in the playoffs, the team may be cautious with him. Jennings already leads the WR corps with a 20% target share, and Pearsall’s absence raises his ceiling. With the 49ers projected for 27.25 points, Jennings is well-positioned for another WR2 performance.
Wan’Dale Robinson, New York Giants
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Robinson’s Week 16 dud came against a Vikings defense that has shut down passing attacks for two months. This week, he draws a far better matchup against a Raiders defense that has allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to WRs.
His role remains strong. Robinson ranks 10th among WRs in route rate (93%), and he sits among the league leaders in targets (126) and receptions (81). That volume has produced six top-32 finishes in his last 10 games. He has also averaged 8.1 targets per game with Jaxson Dart at QB.
Given his usage and matchup, Robinson belongs back in WR2/3 territory for championship week.
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Ladd McConkey, Los Angeles Chargers
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Houston has been one of the toughest pass defenses in the league. The Texans allow the fourth-fewest receptions to WRs and have surrendered only eight WR TDs all year. McConkey runs 86% of his routes from the slot and will face S Jalen Pitre, who owns PFF’s No. 2 coverage grade among all defensive backs. Pitre has not allowed a TD on 51 targets.
McConkey has also been volatile. He hasn’t topped 50 yards since Week 10 and has produced three strong fantasy outings and three sub-5-point clunkers since then. McConkey trails Keenan Allen in target share and has three games under 20 yards in that span.
He carries too much downside in this matchup and should be viewed as a risky WR3.
Khalil Shakir, Buffalo Bills
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Shakir has cooled off. He averaged 11.5 PPR points per game (WR27) through Week 12, but since Week 13, he has dropped to 7.5 (WR51) with a reduced target share. He has been held under 35 yards in three of his last four games.
The matchup makes matters worse. The Eagles allow the second-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points to WRs and have given up only six WR TDs all season, none of those in the past four games. A foot injury that has rendered Josh Allen day-to-day further challenges the passing game..
Add in a 70% chance of rain with temperatures in the 30s, and Shakir becomes a low-upside play in Week 17.
Tight Ends
It's not looking good for Travis Kelce and the Chiefs
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Brenton Strange, Jacksonville Jaguars
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Strange ranked second on the Jaguars in snap share (82%) and route rate (76%) before a quad injury sidelined him in Week 5. Since returning in Week 12, he has sustained a strong route rate (74%) and increased his target involvement.
In Week 16, Strange tied his season high with seven targets, catching five passes for 39 yards and a TD against Denver. He has now delivered three top-10 finishes in five games since returning from IR.
Week 17 brings another favorable setup. Jacksonville faces a Colts defense that has struggled to defend tight ends, allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to the position. Strange drew six targets in their Week 14 meeting and now gets an even better environment. Only Cincinnati allows more receiving yards per game to tight ends.
Strange profiles as a high-floor starter with clear top-10 upside.
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Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs
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With championships at stake, we can’t lean on reputation. Kelce presents too many red flags.
Kelce is coming off his worst fantasy outing of the season, and the Chiefs are down to third-string QB Chris Oladokun. He draws a Denver defense that leads the league in sacks, a brutal setup for his first NFL start.
The Chiefs’ offensive line is also banged up, further lowering the offense’s ceiling.
While Denver has allowed the 12th-most fantasy points to tight ends, Kelce’s Week 11 success came with Patrick Mahomes under center, a luxury he won’t have now. Kansas City carries a paltry 12-point implied total and is projected to run only 57.5 offensive plays.
Kelce ran a season-low 26 routes last week and caught just one of four targets for 6 yards. This matchup is even worse.
With volume and efficiency collapsing, Kelce should be viewed as a risky TE2 in championship week.
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