What You Need to Know:

• Andrews garnered 26.5% target share last season, easily tops among TEs and 14th across positions.
• That marked a bump from the 23.7% he drew in healthy games in 2020 and his 23.4% share in 2019.
• Baltimore significantly increased its passing volume last season. The Ravens threw (or took a sack) on just 44% of offensive snaps across 2019 and 2020. That share jumped to 56.4% last season.
• The Ravens seemed to be working toward more passing after signing Sammy Watkins in free agency and drafting Rashod Bateman in Round 1. But they also lost J.K. Dobbins (ACL), Gus Edwards (ACL) and Justice Hill (Achilles’) to devastating injuries after training camp opened.
• The team traded Marquise Brown this offseason and let Watkins walk. Those 2 combined for 31.9% target share in 2021.
• TE Nick Boyle returns to health this year after losing basically the past year and a half to injury. He tore the hamstring, meniscus, PCL and MCL and suffered a fracture in his left leg in Week 10 of 2020. Boyle appeared in 5 games last season but managed to play just 95 total snaps. Boyle drew 37, 37 and 43 targets the 3 seasons before his injury year.
• Andrews rebounded to 3rd among TEs in yards per route run last season. He ranked 10th in 2020 (minimum 10 targets) after finishing 2nd in 2019.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

We could go further into the numbers with Andrews, but there’s not much need to do so. He should continue to rank among the position’s target-share leaders. Marquise Brown’s vacated targets should help insulate Andrews’ target volume against a big drop, even if the Ravens revert back toward their pre-2021 run-heaviness. The only real question with Andrews is whether he’s now going too early in fantasy drafts. Nothing about his rate stats from 2021 looks unrepeatable, though. And we can’t know just what Baltimore’s run-pass split will be until the season begins. We’re projecting some decline in passing rate, which dings Andrews a little vs. expectation. But we still project him well ahead of #3 TE Kyle Pitts and the rest of the position. So we’re not arguing strongly against taking the Raven at cost. Outscoring Travis Kelce once again is also in the range of outcomes.