Bottom Line

With help from HC Mike McDaniel and WR Tyreek Hill, Tua enjoyed a breakthrough 2022.

If he can avoid further head injuries, a repeat is well within reach.

Tagovailoa is a risk/reward pick, especially in best ball leagues. Elsewhere, he profiles as a matchup-dependent QB1.

What We Learned Last Year

• Tua finished 15th among QBs in total fantasy points; 8th in points per game.
• He ranked as a top-12 fantasy QB five times; a top-6 QB four times.
• Tua sat 5th in Pro Football Focus passing grade and 3rd in average depth of target (aDOT). He added a league-high 8.9 yards per attempt.
• Rushing production wasn’t a strong suit, as Tua rushed for only 70 yards on 24 attempts. He posted ten scrambles.
• New HC Mike McDaniel supplied an excellent match for Tua.
  • A well-schemed offense helped the duo of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle absorb a massive 51% target share.
  • Tua ranked 5th league-wide in RPO pass attempts; 3rd in play-action attempts.
• Tua suffered two – maybe three – concussions in 2022. He admitted that retirement was an offseason consideration.

What to Expect in 2023

• Going back to 2017 at Alabama, Tua's never had the same OC in consecutive seasons. That'll change this year with the return of Frank Smith -- plus HC Mike McDaniel and QB coach/pass-game coordinator Darrell Bevell.
• Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill played all 17 games in 2022 – good injury luck for Tua. But it’s reasonable to expect some missed time from that duo in ‘23.
• Miami’s pass-catching depth remains thin.
  • Offseason adds Chosen (Robbie) Anderson and Braxton Berrios don’t move the needle much.
  • They let Mike Gesicki walk in free agency.
  • Rookie speedster Devon Achane looks like the most significant offseason addition. He’s already turned heads at OTAs.
• The Dolphins’ O-line profiles similarly for 2023. The health of 32-year-old LT Terron Armstead remains critical for a unit that ranked top-12 in adjusted sack rate.
• Concussions will remain at the forefront of Tua’s fantasy prospects. Another head injury could force a significant absence.
• Tua’s at least tried to address the durability concerns. He showed up to OTAs with added muscle mass.
• Tua also spent part of the offseason learning judo, with a goal of learning how to brace himself when falling.