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A.J. Dillon - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

A.J. Dillon
GB

RB GB

#43 Running Back

98 Projected Points

ADP: 8.6
Bye: 13
Experience: 1 Yr(s)
Age: 23
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 247
40 Time: 4.53

2021 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#43 Running Back

98 Projected Points

ADP Rush Atts Rush Yds Rush TDs 100 Fum Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs
8.6 130 572 5 0 1 15 113 0

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

3d Projection

High Floor

78.4

DS Projection

98

Consensus

38 other sites
68.9

High Ceiling

186.2

Ceiling Likelihood

Medium
How likely they will reach their ceiling projection

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • Packers RBs ranked 9th in carries and 8th in RB receptions last season. In 2019 -- HC Matt LaFleur’s 1st season -- they checked in 13th in carries, 6th in receptions.
  • Jamaal Williams commanded 26% and 26.9% of carries those 2 years, 7.9% and 6.7% of targets.
    • His totals: 107 and 119 carries, 45 and 35 targets.
  • Williams left for Detroit in free agency, while Green Bay retained Aaron Jones at the position’s 6th-highest annual salary average.
  • The Packers added only 7th-round pick Kylin Hill to the backfield. Hill’s receiving potential will be worth watching after he caught 23 passes over just 2 games as a senior.
  • Dillon steps into a clear #2 role, though, with Williams gone.
  • Dillon will need to prove himself as a receiver after hauling in just 21 catches across a 3-year college career that included 845 rushing attempts.
  • It seems the Packers at least believe he can help in the passing game. LaFleur said in early June, “It’s rare that you see a guy that size able to catch the ball as fluidly and naturally as he can.”
  • After drafting him in Round 2, Green Bay gave Dillon just 46 carries and 2 targets as a rookie. Roughly half of that work -- 21 rushes, 1 target -- came in a Week 16 win over Tennessee that Williams missed. He racked up 124 yards and 2 TDs in that contest.
    • No other game saw Dillon rush more than 5 times or top 21 yards.
  • At 247 pounds (as a 2020 prospect), Dillon’s 4.53-second 40 gave him a 97th-percentile speed score for the position.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Dillon spent 3 college seasons as a rushing workhorse and then delivered impressive speed for his size. He went surprisingly early in the 2020 draft but then got minimal work as a rookie.

Jamaal Williams’ departure vaults Dillon into Year 2 relevance. It remains to be seen, though, how much his usage will look like Williams’. It’s tough to bet on Dillon being startable in fantasy while Aaron Jones is healthy. But the 2nd-year player should stay plenty involved and carries handcuff-type upside behind a starter who has missed 10 games through 4 seasons (and never reached 15 carries per game in a year).

Dillon is a decent option at his current RB39 ADP -- similar to Gus Edwards (2 spots lower) in outlook.

 

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Packers RB A.J. Dillon has been placed on the COVID list. He's out for at least Thursday night's game against the 49ers. The bigger question is who Dillon was in close contact with recently. Those players may not be able to play on Thursday. We'll keep a close eye on the situation.

View all A.J. Dillon Shark Bites »

The Packers added Boston College RB A.J. Dillon in the 2nd round of the 2020 NFL Draft. Dillon served as his team’s workhorse in all 3 seasons on campus, registering rushing lines of 300-1,589-14, 227-1,108-10 and 318-1,685-14. His 4,382 career rushing yards and 38 career rushing scores are both school records. Dillon crushed the Combine, running a 4.53-second 40-yard dash at 6’0 and 247 pounds to earn a 97th percentile Speed Score. He also posted 96th and 97th percentile marks in the vertical and broad jumps, finishing with a 97th percentile SPARQ score. Dillon doesn’t look like an uber-athlete on tape, though. He needs a runway to hit top speed and has very little wiggle. He’s also a near-zero in the passing game, totaling just 21 receptions over the past 3 seasons. Dillon joins Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams in Green Bay’s backfield. HC Matt LaFleur has been hesitant to make Jones a feature back — and this pick likely means that will continue. Longer term, it's worth noting that both Jones and Williams are set to become free agents next offseason.

View all A.J. Dillon Shark Bites »

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