Bottom Line

The 6’0, 250-pound bruiser didn’t have a particularly strong 2022. Some underlying stats give reason to be relatively optimistic about his chances at a rebound, though he’s still got to share a backfield with teammate RB Aaron Jones.

Treat Dillon as a flex-worthy RB3 in good matchups in 2023.

What We Learned Last Year

• Dillon struggled a bit, finishing as the RB26 overall in PPR.
• He recorded three top-10 fantasy finishes with four more games among the top 24.
  • Dillon failed to reach RB3 territory in six of his 17 games.
• The former second-round pick shared the Packers’ rushing workload with Aaron Jones, finishing second in rushing attempts (186) with 42.2% of the carries.
• Dillon contributed very little as a receiver, finishing seventh on the team in targets (43) and eighth (adjusted for games missed) in target share (7.9%).
• Among 41 RBs who recorded 100+ carries in 2022, Dillon finished 5th in PFF rushing grade. Conversely, he ranked t-22nd in yards after contact per attempt (2.90) and 31st in total rushing yards (770).
• While his counting stats don’t indicate much success, Dillon was a reasonably efficient runner byn underlying metrics:
  • Despite running behind an O-line that ranked just 22nd in PFF run-blocking grade, Dillon finished fifth in Football Outsiders’ RB success rate (57%) and 14th in Football Outsiders’ effective yards (949) – compared with 27th in actual rushing yards.
    • FO says players with more EYards than raw rushing yards were generally better than the box score would show.

What to Expect in 2023

• As long as Aaron Jones is around, Dillon will play second fiddle. He may have weekly appeal as a flex option in a good matchup, but it’ll otherwise require an injury to Jones for Dillon to be a strong fantasy asset.
• The team shifting to new starting QB Jordan Love may compel HC Matt LaFleur to tune the offense more in the run-heavy direction.
  • The team finished 18th in pass rate last year, however. Even with a small tick back, it’s unlikely to make a dramatic difference for Dillon.