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A.J. Dillon - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsA.J. Dillon's Basic Stats

A.J. Dillon
ADP: 5.8
Bye: 14
Experience: 2 Yr(s)
Age: 24.1
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 247
40 Time: 4.53
Burst Score (Rank): 135.20 (98%)
Three Cone Drill (Rank): 7.19

A.J. Dillon's 2022 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#28 Running Back

158.9 Projected Points

ADP Rush Atts Rush Yds Rush TDs 100 Fum Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs
5.8 193.2 850.3 7.2 1.9 1.3 30.4 248.8 1.4

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsA.J. Dillon's Preseason Player Analysis

View RB Fantasy Rankings »

What You Need to Know:

  • Outside of a monster 21-124-2 line against Tennessee, Dillon’s rookie season was largely uneventful.
  • That changed in 2021, though. Dillon appeared in all 17 games, only suffering a rib fracture in the postseason.
  • In 15 games with Aaron Jones, the veteran barely out-carried Dillon, 171-162. Jones predictably topped Dillon in targets (65-30).
  • In 2 games with Jones sidelined, Dillon tallied 17 and 15 touches. The 15-touch game came in Week 18 with Green Bay (1) resting starters and (2) limiting the role of key players like Dillon. The Packers already locked up the #1 seed.
  • Dillon handled a hefty 45.3% of Green Bay’s red zone rushes, topping Jones’ mark of 37.2%.
  • Among RBs, Dillon ranked #1 in Football Outsiders’ rush success rate.
  • Overall, Dillon ranked 2nd in PFF rushing grade among 22 RBs with 180+ attempts. He sat 7th in yards after contact per attempt; 12th in Elusive Rating.
  • Previously non-existent as a pass-catcher, even at Boston College, Dillion went on to tally 1.51 yards per route run, 5th highest in the sample behind Aaron Jones.
  • RB coach Ben Sirmans gave his take on ‘21 Dillon and the road ahead. “There were some opportunities right there that we missed on that could have been big, explosive runs,” Sirmans said. “For us, it’s making sure that everything’s put together from details, footwork, that could have led to bigger plays by him. He’s got that type of ability because he can actually make you miss in the open field. He’s faster than most people think. He’s got the ability to put a little juke on you, even for a guy his size, so it’s really just bringing all those different facets of his game, just bringing those attributes together and let him apply them. I think he will have more explosive runs this year.”
  • Green Bay’s supporting cast took a hit with the loss of Davante Adams, a major red zone weapon. He scored 7 TDs inside the 10-yard-line alone last season.
  • Green Bay’s O-line doesn’t profile as a high-end unit. The depth is suspect, and key starters David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins bring health (ACL) concerns.
  • Aaron Rodgers remains a huge asset, though. Last year, he ranked 3rd in PFF passing grade; 1st in QBR. This unit could again finish top-10 in scoring.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Dillon took a major year 2 jump last season. He has the size, athleticism, draft capital and youth to forecast further progress in year 3.

Yes, he figures to play a 1B role behind Aaron Jones, who’s on a pricey second contract. But a Green Bay squad that just lost an elite WR could easily lean more towards the run this fall. The Pack already ranked a middle-of-the-road 16th in pass rate last season.

12+ touches per game are well within reach for Dillon. And a prolonged absence from Aaron Jones would afford the 24-year-old a clear RB1 ceiling.

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Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

A.J. Dillon, RB GB

8:44am EST 1/24/22

Dillon has fractured rib

Packers RB A.J. Dillon fractured a rib in Saturday night's Divisional Round game vs. the 49ers, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. Dillon has the offseason to heal up after Green Bay lost that one on a last-second FG. He and RB Aaron Jones will be back with the Packers in 2022, making it a tricky situation to handicap for fantasy purposes.

View all A.J. Dillon Shark Bites »

Packers RB Aaron Jones (knee) is inactive for today’s game vs. the Lions. He’d likely be playing if this game meant anything to Green Bay and should be back for the playoffs. All of the Packers’ other regulars on offense are active, although it’s unclear how much guys like Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams will play.

View all Aaron Jones Shark Bites »

Despite locking up the NFC's #1 seed with their win on Sunday night over Minnesota, Packers HC Matt LaFleur said Monday that he plans to play his staters vs. the Lions this weekend. "Right now the mindset is we're going to play our guys, and we're going to approach it like any other game," LaFleur said. Color us skeptical -- especially when it comes to QB Aaron Rodgers, who's still playing through that toe injury. We'll look for further updates on Rodgers, WR Davante Adams and RBs Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon.

View all Aaron Rodgers Shark Bites »

Packers RB Aaron Jones (knee) is active for today’s game vs. the Rams. He’s 2 weeks removed from spraining his MCL and was limited in practice all week. It’s completely unclear how big a role Jones will play today, leaving him as a risky fantasy play. Don’t be surprised if RB A.J. Dillon ends up with more touches.

View all Aaron Jones Shark Bites »

ESPN's Adam Schefter and NFL Network's Tom Pelissero report that Packers RB Aaron Jones (knee) is a game-time decision for today's tilt with the Rams. Pelissero says there's "some optimism" that Jones will play. Schefter says Jones "wants to play" but suggests that the Packers' Week 13 bye might factor into the final decision. This game doesn't kick off until 4:25 pm ET, so we won't get Green Bay's inactives until 3 pm. If you're hoping to use Jones today, you'll need a late-game alternative lined up. A.J. Dillon would go from RB1 to RB3 if Jones ends up active.

View all Aaron Jones Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View RB Dynasty Rankings »

A.J. Dillon, RB GB
Dynasty MVP 133.3
Position Rank #27 RB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
472
766
893
Dynasty Write-up
Dillon posted a 187-803-5 rushing line alongside Aaron Jones in 2021 -- and even proved capable in the passing game with 34 grabs. Jones will be back for 2022, but Dillon holds exciting long-term upside.
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