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A.J. Dillon - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

A.J. Dillon
GB

RB GB

#40 Running Back

102 Projected Points

ADP: Not Available
Bye: 13
Experience: 1 Yr(s)
Age: 23
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 247
40 Time: 4.53

Weekly Outlook

3d Projection

Low Floor

2.2

DS Projection

6.7

Consensus

38 other sites
6

Med Ceiling

10

Rest of
Season

6.6

Week 6 Projections
Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
34 0.3 2 15 0 6.7
Weekly Writeup
Dillon saw a season-high 4 targets last week at Cincinnati. He’s still a borderline FLEX as the clear #2 behind Aaron Jones.

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
37 0.3 1.5 11 0 6.6
Week 5
Continuing to operate as Aaron Jones’ change-of-pace option in the offense, Dillon saw a career-high 4 targets, and his 49 receiving yards, including his 1st TD of the season, represented more receiving yardage than he had in the prior 5 games. Known for his power running, he was actually more productive as a receiver, as he was unable to break through the Bengals D for 4 yards per carry. On his TD, he dove into the end zone to get inside the pylon.

After seeing between 5 and 8 touches in each of the Packers’ first 3 games, Dillon has seen 16 and 12 in the last 2, raising the potential of his weekly scoring floor. But aside from his 5+ yards per carry in Week 4, he’s been held to fewer than 4 yards per carry in the other 4 contests. Also, the receiving score he posted this week was his first TD of the year, but overall, the last 2 weeks have been strong RB2 performances, and he’s gaining a sizable role in the offense, so that may continue going forward.
Week 4
Dillon had a season-high 15 carries on Sunday, gaining 81 yards. He also caught his only target for 16 yards.

After seeing just 15 carries through 3 weeks, it was clear the Packers wanted to get Dillon some work against the Steelers. Going forward, there will be games like this for Dillon. But expect him to get a handful of touches most weeks.

Going forward, he is someone who has a ton of upside if something were to happen to Aaron Jones. But as it stands, he is more of a nuisance than a complementary piece.
Week 1
Dillon’s touches were limited throughout the game, only seeing 2 in the first half and 3 through the third quarter. It is hard to judge anyone from this game, so it’s best to leave him on your bench to see how he looks in a much better Week 2 matchup against Detroit. However, if he fails to produce against the Lions, it might be time to cut bait.

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • Packers RBs ranked 9th in carries and 8th in RB receptions last season. In 2019 -- HC Matt LaFleur’s 1st season -- they checked in 13th in carries, 6th in receptions.
  • Jamaal Williams commanded 26% and 26.9% of carries those 2 years, 7.9% and 6.7% of targets.
    • His totals: 107 and 119 carries, 45 and 35 targets.
  • Williams left for Detroit in free agency, while Green Bay retained Aaron Jones at the position’s 6th-highest annual salary average.
  • The Packers added only 7th-round pick Kylin Hill to the backfield. Hill’s receiving potential will be worth watching after he caught 23 passes over just 2 games as a senior.
  • Dillon steps into a clear #2 role, though, with Williams gone.
  • Dillon will need to prove himself as a receiver after hauling in just 21 catches across a 3-year college career that included 845 rushing attempts.
  • It seems the Packers at least believe he can help in the passing game. LaFleur said in early June, “It’s rare that you see a guy that size able to catch the ball as fluidly and naturally as he can.”
  • After drafting him in Round 2, Green Bay gave Dillon just 46 carries and 2 targets as a rookie. Roughly half of that work -- 21 rushes, 1 target -- came in a Week 16 win over Tennessee that Williams missed. He racked up 124 yards and 2 TDs in that contest.
    • No other game saw Dillon rush more than 5 times or top 21 yards.
  • At 247 pounds (as a 2020 prospect), Dillon’s 4.53-second 40 gave him a 97th-percentile speed score for the position.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Dillon spent 3 college seasons as a rushing workhorse and then delivered impressive speed for his size. He went surprisingly early in the 2020 draft but then got minimal work as a rookie.

Jamaal Williams’ departure vaults Dillon into Year 2 relevance. It remains to be seen, though, how much his usage will look like Williams’. It’s tough to bet on Dillon being startable in fantasy while Aaron Jones is healthy. But the 2nd-year player should stay plenty involved and carries handcuff-type upside behind a starter who has missed 10 games through 4 seasons (and never reached 15 carries per game in a year).

Dillon is a decent option at his current RB39 ADP -- similar to Gus Edwards (2 spots lower) in outlook.

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Packers RB A.J. Dillon has been placed on the COVID list. He's out for at least Thursday night's game against the 49ers. The bigger question is who Dillon was in close contact with recently. Those players may not be able to play on Thursday. We'll keep a close eye on the situation.

View all A.J. Dillon Shark Bites »

The Packers added Boston College RB A.J. Dillon in the 2nd round of the 2020 NFL Draft. Dillon served as his team’s workhorse in all 3 seasons on campus, registering rushing lines of 300-1,589-14, 227-1,108-10 and 318-1,685-14. His 4,382 career rushing yards and 38 career rushing scores are both school records. Dillon crushed the Combine, running a 4.53-second 40-yard dash at 6’0 and 247 pounds to earn a 97th percentile Speed Score. He also posted 96th and 97th percentile marks in the vertical and broad jumps, finishing with a 97th percentile SPARQ score. Dillon doesn’t look like an uber-athlete on tape, though. He needs a runway to hit top speed and has very little wiggle. He’s also a near-zero in the passing game, totaling just 21 receptions over the past 3 seasons. Dillon joins Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams in Green Bay’s backfield. HC Matt LaFleur has been hesitant to make Jones a feature back — and this pick likely means that will continue. Longer term, it's worth noting that both Jones and Williams are set to become free agents next offseason.

View all A.J. Dillon Shark Bites »

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