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A.J. Dillon - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsA.J. Dillon's Basic Stats

A.J. Dillon
ADP: 8.1
Bye: 6
Experience: 3 Yr(s)
Age: 25.4
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 247
40 Time: 4.53
Burst Score (Rank): 135.20 (98%)
Three Cone Drill (Rank): 7.19

A.J. Dillon's Weekly Outlook

Week 5 Projections
Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
35.1 0.3 0.9 6.9 0 5.8
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
27.6 0.2 0.7 5.8 0 4.2

A.J. Dillon's 2023 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#55 Running Back

67.9 Projected Points

ADP Rush Atts Rush Yds Rush TDs 100 Fum Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs
8.1 99.2 441.7 3.2 1 3.9 10.8 93.2 0.5

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsA.J. Dillon's Preseason Player Analysis

View RB Fantasy Rankings »
Bottom Line

The 6’0, 250-pound bruiser didn’t have a particularly strong 2022. Some underlying stats give reason to be relatively optimistic about his chances at a rebound, though he’s still got to share a backfield with teammate RB Aaron Jones.

Treat Dillon as a flex-worthy RB3 in good matchups in 2023.


What We Learned Last Year
  • Dillon struggled a bit, finishing as the RB26 overall in PPR.
  • He recorded three top-10 fantasy finishes with four more games among the top 24.
    • Dillon failed to reach RB3 territory in six of his 17 games.
  • The former second-round pick shared the Packers’ rushing workload with Aaron Jones, finishing second in rushing attempts (186) with 42.2% of the carries.
  • Dillon contributed very little as a receiver, finishing seventh on the team in targets (43) and eighth (adjusted for games missed) in target share (7.9%).
  • Among 41 RBs who recorded 100+ carries in 2022, Dillon finished 5th in PFF rushing grade. Conversely, he ranked t-22nd in yards after contact per attempt (2.90) and 31st in total rushing yards (770).
  • While his counting stats don’t indicate much success, Dillon was a reasonably efficient runner byn underlying metrics:
    • Despite running behind an O-line that ranked just 22nd in PFF run-blocking grade, Dillon finished fifth in Football Outsiders’ RB success rate (57%) and 14th in Football Outsiders’ effective yards (949) – compared with 27th in actual rushing yards.
      • FO says players with more EYards than raw rushing yards were generally better than the box score would show.

What to Expect in 2023
  • As long as Aaron Jones is around, Dillon will play second fiddle. He may have weekly appeal as a flex option in a good matchup, but it’ll otherwise require an injury to Jones for Dillon to be a strong fantasy asset.
  • The team shifting to new starting QB Jordan Love may compel HC Matt LaFleur to tune the offense more in the run-heavy direction.
    • The team finished 18th in pass rate last year, however. Even with a small tick back, it’s unlikely to make a dramatic difference for Dillon.

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Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Aaron Jones, RB GB

6:04am EDT 9/29/23

Aaron Jones quiet in Week 4 return

RB Aaron Jones, like the entire Packers offense, struggled to get going in Thursday night's loss to the Lions. Green Bay finished with only 53 plays and 10 RB carries, as they played from multiple scores behind for the final three quarters. Jones garnered five of those carries but could only grind out 18 yards. He was crunched for a four-yard loss on his only reception of the night. Jones wound up getting out-snapped 38 to 20 by backfield mate A.J. Dillon, but that was very likely due to Jones coming back from that hamstring injury and the scoreboard. The good news is that Jones seemingly avoided a setback. Expect him to be back in the lead role in a plus Week 5 matchup vs. the Raiders. It's a good bounce-back opportunity for Jones and the Packers.

View all Aaron Jones Shark Bites »

Packers RB AJ Dillon got another chance to lead the backfield Sunday, with Aaron Jones (hamstring) inactive. For the second straight week, he failed to take advantage. Dillon gained just 33 yards on 11 carries, trailing QB Jordan Love (39 yards) for the team rushing lead. Dillon also got frozen out of the passing game, watching Patrick Taylor (4) and Emanuel Wilson (1) split the backfield targets. Dillon is droppable in many fantasy football leagues. Check our updated rest-of-season rankings Tuesday, ahead of your league's waiver run.

View all A.J. Dillon Shark Bites »

Packers RB Aaron Jones (hamstring) is inactive for today’s game vs. the Saints. He got in limited practices on Thursday and Friday, so a Week 4 return seems likely. A.J. Dillon will again serve as Green Bay’s lead back today after handling 15 carries and one target last week.

View all Aaron Jones Shark Bites »

Packers RB Aaron Jones (hamstring) remained sidelined for Wednesday's practice. That's not a good start for his chances of returning for this weekend's game vs. the Saints. We'll update Jones' status again tomorrow.

View all Aaron Jones Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View RB Dynasty Rankings »

A.J. Dillon, RB GB
Dynasty MVP 47.1
Position Rank #81 RB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
162
247
379
Dynasty Write-up
Dillon’s 2022 numbers closely mirrored his 2021 output. He’ll return for his contract year in 2023. Meanwhile, Aaron Jones is set to return for his 7th season.
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