A.J. Green - Fantasy Points Outlook

What You Need to Know:

• Green posted a 54-848-3 line in 16 games last season, missing Week 9 on the COVID list.
• He ranked 41st among WRs in both PPR and non-PPR points.
• That basically matched Green’s opportunity: He ranked 40th at his position in targets and 37th in expected PPR points.
• Among 89 WRs with 50+ targets last year, Green ranked 48th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade
• Green’s 1.60 yards per route run ranked 51st among those 89 WRs – and 4th among Cardinals WRs behind Christian Kirk (1.81), DeAndre Hopkins (1.76) and Rondale Moore (1.64).
• Green saw more targets in the 7 games that Hopkins missed all or most of. But he was actually more productive with Hopkins. Here are the per-game averages:
  • With Hopkins: 5.1 targets, 3.6 catches, 58.0 yards, .33 TDs
  • Without Hopkins: 6.3 targets, 3.1 catches, 46.6 yards, 0 TDs
• The Cardinals re-signed Green about a month into free agency to a 1-year, $3.5 million contract with $3 million of that guaranteed. By comparison, he played the 2021 season on a 1-year, fully guaranteed $6 million deal.
• The Cardinals will play the first 6 games of this season without Hopkins, who’s suspended for violating the league’s performance-enhancing drug policy.
• Arizona also lost WR Christian Kirk and RB Chase Edmonds this offseason. Those 2 combined for 156 targets a year ago.
• The Cardinals swung a trade for WR Marquise Brown during this spring’s draft.
• WR Rondale Moore returns for 2022 and is a candidate for an increased role in his 2nd season.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Green was fine last season, posting average efficiency marks and scoring as a WR4 in fantasy. He figures to open the season with a sizable role while WR DeAndre Hopkins serves his 6-game suspension.

When Hopkins returns, though, Green might slide to 4th on the depth chart behind Hopkins, Marquise Brown and Rondale Moore.

So while he might help you early on, there’s not much season-long upside with Green.