Austin Ekeler - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

A high-ankle sprain ruined Ekeler’s two-year run as a no-doubt RB1.

Those days are over. Given the presence of Brian Robinson Jr., Washington just doesn’t supply the same opportunity Ekeler enjoyed in L.A.

If he stays healthy, though, the former Charger should pay off a FLEX-range ADP.

What We Learned Last Year

• Ekeler’s 2023 was ruined by injury.
  • A high-ankle sprain bit the veteran in Week 1.
  • Before departing, he looked like prime Ekeler with 16-117-1 rushing – plus 4-47 receiving.
  • He returned for Week 6 but rarely looked healthy going forward.
• He set career lows in yards per carry (3.5), yards after contact per attempt (2.64) and Pro Football Focus’ Elusive Rating (49.4).
• Among 33 RBs with 175+ carries, Ekeler ranked 29th in success rate, 33rd in EPA per rush, and 32nd in explosive rush rate.
• His receiving volume predictably declined off a whopping 127 targets (2022).
  • His 1.25 yards per route run set a new career low.
• As a result, Ekeler – a consensus Round 1 fantasy pick – finished as an RB1 only four times post-injury.

What to Expect in 2024

• Ekeler, now 29, signed a two-year deal with Washington early in free agency.
  • It was a low-cost deal, with his $4.21 million guaranteed ranking 25th among RBs.
• He joins a backfield that lost Antonio Gibson… but returns ‘23 lead back Brian Robinson Jr.
  • While Robinson wasn’t a 2023 league-winner, he outperformed Ekeler in every relevant rushing metric.
  • His size (6’1, 228) makes him a candidate for goal line work under new OC Kliff Kingsbury
• Kingsbury flamed out after four years with Arizona.
  • Still, his offenses were fine for fantasy, ranking 16th, 13th, 11th, and 21st in points.
  • They ranked 19th, 6th, 7th, and 20th in rush attempts.
• Jayden Daniels arrives as a playmaking QB.
  • His top-end rushing ability adds the potential for boosted rush efficiency.
• Washington’s O-line doesn’t look spectacular.
  • They ranked 22nd in run block win rate last year.
  • The team will undergo turnover, losing G Saahdiq Charles, C Nick Gates, C Tyler Larsen, and LT Charles Leno Jr.
  • Addiitons include C Tyler Biadasz, C Michael Dieter and G Nick Allegretti.
  • We're not expecting any better than a league-average unit.
• Questions at WR – beyond WR Terry McLaurin – should allow Ekeler’s receiving ability to shine for another season.
  • He’s caught 50+ balls in five straight seasons.