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Baker Mayfield - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Baker Mayfield
CLE

QB CLE

#20 Quarterback

341 Projected Points

ADP: Not Available
Bye: 13
Experience: 3 Yr(s)
Age: 26
Height: 6'2"
Weight: 215
40 Time: 4.84

Weekly Outlook

Week 21 Projections

This player does not have a weekly prediction

Rest Of Way Outlook

Week 12
Mayfield completed 18 of 37 passes for 247 yards and 1 TD in Week 12 against the Ravens.
Mayfield completed less than 50% of his passes as he was under constant duress facing an aggressive Ravens defense.
The Ravens probably opted to play aggressive because the Browns are really lacking playmakers on the outside and they are not worried about getting beat by the deep ball.
Mayfield threw his lone TD pass to David Njoku but has been struggling for a while now as he has dealt with several injuries and is on a team lacking WR talent.
Week 10
Playing against a Bill Belichick defense was never going to produce a strong result for Mayfield. Then, throw in the fact that the Pats moved out to a big lead quickly, and that was a scenario that had very few positive outcomes. He barely completed half of his passes for just 73 yards before leaving in the 2nd half with a knee injury, though he was soon back on the sidelines, indicating he may be fine. While in the game his only success came on quick throws for short yardage, and he didn’t complete a pass of more than 16 yards.

Playing with an injured left shoulder on a run-first offense ensures that he'll only be a good fantasy option in leagues that start 2 QBs. Although he came into this game having thrown 2 TDs in 3 of his last 4 games, he only had 8 TD passes over his first 8 games of the year, including 3 games when he failed to find the end zone. He also has a brutal schedule in the fantasy playoffs (Weeks 15-17) when he faces the 7th, 8th, and 9th toughest defenses in terms of fantasy points allowed to QBs.
Week 9
Mayfield completed 14 of 21 passes for 218 yards and 2 TDs in Cleveland's 41-16 domination of the Bengals.
Mayfield set a season-high with 10.3 yards per attempt as he hit a couple of big plays, including a 60-yard TD to Donovan Peoples-Jones on a perfect deep ball.
Mayfield threw his other TD pass to David Njoku in the 4th quarter when the game was already 34-16. Mayfield wasn’t needed to do much as the Browns rushing attack dominated and the defense had 5 sacks and a pick 6.
Mayfield is an every-week QB2. The Browns have a tough matchup in Week 10 against the streaking Patriots.
Week 5
Mayfield absolutely delivered in Week 5 with a fantastic 300-yard, 2-TD performance. This came against one of the toughest defenses in the league in the Chargers. Prior to Week 5 the Chargers held down the likes of Dak Prescott, Patrick Mahomes and Derek Carr. Mayfield’s 300-yard performance marked the first time this season the Chargers allowed over 260 passing yards. This performance came one week after a disastrous outing vs. the Vikings where Mayfield failed to complete 50% of his passes and top 200 yards. At this point it is impossible to know when to start and sit him, but at least we know he has a top 10 ceiling.
This week Mayfield and the Browns could be in another shootout as the Browns take on the Cardinals. The Browns secondary has three notable injuries which could make it tough to slow down Kyler Murray. This potential game flow could put Mayfield on the QB1 map this week.
Week 4
Mayfield and the Browns passing attack looked out of sorts all day on Sunday. Mayfield consistently missed wide open throws, especially in the deep passing game. Mayfield went 0-6 on passes that traveled at least 20 yards downfield. This lack of downfield passing attack led to a weak stat line of 15-33 for 155 yards and no scores. The good news for Mayfield owners is prior to week 4 Mayfield was 6-13 (46% completion rate) on deep passes, so it could be viewed as just an off day.
Heading into Week 5 the Browns arguably have their toughest test yet vs. the Chargers. The Chargers this season have allowed the 6th fewest points to the QB position — despite facing Dak Prescott, Patrick Mahomes and a red-hot Derek Carr. This makes Mayfield a fade for Week 5.
Week 3
Mayfield did just what the Browns needed him to Sunday against the Bears. He completed 19 of 31 throws, despite taking 5 sacks. His best toss of the day might have been the zone-beater to Austin Hooper for a 2nd-quarter TD.

That would be the lone score for Mayfield in a game that saw Cleveland reach the end zone just 1 other time (a Kareem Hunt 30-yard run).

Through 3 games, Mayfield is working on career highs in completion rate and yards per pass attempt. He’s bound to improve on his 2.5% passing-TD rate, though Mayfield has attempted just 6 passes inside the red zone (tied for 26th in the league) and 1 inside the 10-yard line (T-29th) so far.

There’s no reason for concern in Mayfield’s performance so far, but his scheme appears likely to limit his fantasy upside. He did at least balance losing Jarvis Landry in Week 2 with getting Odell Beckham Jr. back for Week 3.

A Week 4 visit to Minnesota holds some shootout potential and a weak set of Vikings CBs.
Week 2
The Week 2 matchup against the Texans was a lot more competitive early on then most people expected. Mayfield wasn’t asked to do much as he only attempted 21 passes in the game. He was efficient on his limited work, completing 90% of his attempts for a solid 10.1 YPA. Mayfield did save his fantasy day with a rushing TD, but even with that score he finished as the QB18 on the week. It is important to note that Mayfield left the game in the second quarter after suffering a left shoulder injury and returned to the game with a harness. This will be something to monitor as it could limit him moving forward.
This week the Browns face a Bears secondary that bounced back last week limiting Joe Burrow to just 207 passing yards and 6.9 YPA. Due to his own injury and the injury to Jarvis Landry it might be best to look elsewhere for a starter even in Superflex leagues in Week 3.
Week 1
Mayfield completed 21 of 28 passes for 321 yards and 1 INT in Cleveland's 33-29 Week 1 loss to the Chiefs.
Mayfield and the Browns got off to a hot start as they scored points on all of their first half possessions and took a 22-10 lead going into the break.
Mayfield was unable to throw for any TD passes but completed 75% of his passes and led the Browns to score 29 points against the Chiefs defense.
The Browns had a chance for a game-winning TD drive, but the drive was halted as Baker threw an INT as he was falling down and attempting to throw the ball out of bounds.
Mayfield should be considered a top 15 option in Week 2 against the Texans.

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • From a real life perspective, Baker rebounded from a bad 2019. Under 1st-year HC Kevin Stefanski, Mayfield posted the 10th best Pro Football Focus passing grade (81.6). He was at 72.4 (QB21) in 2019.
  • Mayfield finished 10th in QBR, just behind Tom Brady and Russell Wilson.
  • Low volume limited his fantasy contributions, though. Among 16-game starters, only Ryan Tannehill attempted fewer passes than Mayfield (486). Baker posted only 4 QB1 weeks, with the first not surfacing until Week 7.
  • Mayfield finished as the QB3 in both Week 13 (at Tennessee) and Week 14 (vs. Baltimore). His only rushing TD of 2020 surfaced over that stretch.
  • Odell Beckham missed 9 games with an ACL tear. He’ll be a full go for Week 1.
  • Mayfield faced pressure at an acceptable 33.4% rate. Pro Football Focus slotted the Browns’ O-line 1st in pass blocking grade.
  • The unit still looks strong on paper, especially with 2020 Round 1 pick Jedrick Wills returning to man LT. In fact, all 5 starters return.
  • Mayfield missed Odell Beckham for 9 games last year (ACL tear). He’s expected to be fine for Week 1.
  • The Browns return Jarvis Landry and depth pieces Rashard Higgins and Donovan Peoples-Jones. Anthony Schwartz arrived in Round 3 as a bona fide field stretcher.
  • Baker’s proven durable, despite a smaller frame. He’s yet to miss a game due to injury through 3 seasons.
  • With Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt returning — plus the Browns fielding one of the league’s top defenses — Mayfield’s volume figures to remain very low. Current projections have him at ~31 attempts per game. Not ideal.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line

Baker finished as the QB17 last year. With low pass volume and scant production on the ground, he simply wasn’t positioned to perform well in fantasy.

Other than the return of Odell Beckham — post-ACL tear — not much changes for 2021. Expect Mayfield to remain a spot-start QB1.

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Browns GM Andrew Berry threw support behind QB Baker Mayfield on Tuesday. "We fully expect Baker to be our starter and bounce back," Berry said. Actions speak louder than words, of course. So we'll see if Cleveland makes any major moves at QB this offseason. The Browns exercised the 5th-year option on Mayfield's contract, so he's on the books for nearly $19 million in 2022.

View all Baker Mayfield Shark Bites »

Browns QB Baker Mayfield won't play in Sunday's finale vs. the Bengals, HC Kevin Stefanski said Tuesday. Mayfield will undergo surgery to address the torn labrum in his left shoulder as soon as possible, Stefanski said. So that ends an extremely tough season for Mayfield, who also battled knee and foot injuries. His 60.5% completion rate, 7.2 yards per attempt, 4.1% TD rate and 3.1% INT rate were all worse than his 2020 marks. Mayfield is under contract with the Browns for 2022, but don't be surprised if the team adds competition this offseason.

View all Baker Mayfield Shark Bites »

Browns QB Baker Mayfield is considering sitting out Sunday's finale vs. the Bengals. He's dealt with a plethora of injuries this season, including a torn labrum in his left shoulder that will require surgery this offseason. "I'm an extremely competitive guy," Mayfield said after taking 9 sacks in Monday night's loss to the Steelers. "Now it's time for me to start looking at what's in the best interest of me and my health. ... Right now, I'm pretty damn beat up, to be honest with you. There's no way around it." QB Case Keenum figures to start for Cleveland this weekend if Mayfield doesn't.

View all Baker Mayfield Shark Bites »

Browns QBs Baker Mayfield and Case Keenum have been activated from the COVID list. Mayfield should start Saturday's game vs. the Packers -- but will do so without having practiced all week. He's just a low-end QB2 in what figures to be a run-heavy attack from the Browns.

View all Baker Mayfield Shark Bites »

Browns QB Baker Mayfield, QB Case Keenum, WR Jarvis Landry and TE Austin Hooper will not be activated from the COVID list for tonight's game vs. the Raiders, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. So QB Nick Mullens will get the start for Cleveland. His top 2 WRs figure to be Donovan Peoples-Jones and Rashard Higgins. David Njoku should top the TE depth chart. We'll see if TE Harrison Bryant (ankle) is able to play. Expect a run-heavy game plan featuring Nick Chubb from the Browns.

View all Baker Mayfield Shark Bites »

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