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Baker Mayfield - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Baker Mayfield
CLE

QB CLE

#20 Quarterback

341 Projected Points

ADP: Not Available
Bye: 13
Experience: 3 Yr(s)
Age: 26
Height: 6'2"
Weight: 215
40 Time: 4.84

Weekly Outlook

3d Projection

High Floor

14.4

DS Projection

17.6

Consensus

38 other sites
20

High Ceiling

24.5

Rest of
Season

20.2

Week 6 Projections
Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
228 1.4 0.5 11 17.6
Weekly Writeup
Mayfield likely catches a break here, as top pass rusher Chandler Jones is expected to be out (COVID-19 list). Still, the young QB carries extra risk while playing through a partially torn labrum in his left shoulder.

Rest Of Way Outlook

Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
240 1.8 0.7 10.9 20.2
Week 5
Mayfield absolutely delivered in Week 5 with a fantastic 300-yard, 2-TD performance. This came against one of the toughest defenses in the league in the Chargers. Prior to Week 5 the Chargers held down the likes of Dak Prescott, Patrick Mahomes and Derek Carr. Mayfield’s 300-yard performance marked the first time this season the Chargers allowed over 260 passing yards. This performance came one week after a disastrous outing vs. the Vikings where Mayfield failed to complete 50% of his passes and top 200 yards. At this point it is impossible to know when to start and sit him, but at least we know he has a top 10 ceiling.
This week Mayfield and the Browns could be in another shootout as the Browns take on the Cardinals. The Browns secondary has three notable injuries which could make it tough to slow down Kyler Murray. This potential game flow could put Mayfield on the QB1 map this week.
Week 4
Mayfield and the Browns passing attack looked out of sorts all day on Sunday. Mayfield consistently missed wide open throws, especially in the deep passing game. Mayfield went 0-6 on passes that traveled at least 20 yards downfield. This lack of downfield passing attack led to a weak stat line of 15-33 for 155 yards and no scores. The good news for Mayfield owners is prior to week 4 Mayfield was 6-13 (46% completion rate) on deep passes, so it could be viewed as just an off day.
Heading into Week 5 the Browns arguably have their toughest test yet vs. the Chargers. The Chargers this season have allowed the 6th fewest points to the QB position — despite facing Dak Prescott, Patrick Mahomes and a red-hot Derek Carr. This makes Mayfield a fade for Week 5.
Week 3
Mayfield did just what the Browns needed him to Sunday against the Bears. He completed 19 of 31 throws, despite taking 5 sacks. His best toss of the day might have been the zone-beater to Austin Hooper for a 2nd-quarter TD.

That would be the lone score for Mayfield in a game that saw Cleveland reach the end zone just 1 other time (a Kareem Hunt 30-yard run).

Through 3 games, Mayfield is working on career highs in completion rate and yards per pass attempt. He’s bound to improve on his 2.5% passing-TD rate, though Mayfield has attempted just 6 passes inside the red zone (tied for 26th in the league) and 1 inside the 10-yard line (T-29th) so far.

There’s no reason for concern in Mayfield’s performance so far, but his scheme appears likely to limit his fantasy upside. He did at least balance losing Jarvis Landry in Week 2 with getting Odell Beckham Jr. back for Week 3.

A Week 4 visit to Minnesota holds some shootout potential and a weak set of Vikings CBs.
Week 2
The Week 2 matchup against the Texans was a lot more competitive early on then most people expected. Mayfield wasn’t asked to do much as he only attempted 21 passes in the game. He was efficient on his limited work, completing 90% of his attempts for a solid 10.1 YPA. Mayfield did save his fantasy day with a rushing TD, but even with that score he finished as the QB18 on the week. It is important to note that Mayfield left the game in the second quarter after suffering a left shoulder injury and returned to the game with a harness. This will be something to monitor as it could limit him moving forward.
This week the Browns face a Bears secondary that bounced back last week limiting Joe Burrow to just 207 passing yards and 6.9 YPA. Due to his own injury and the injury to Jarvis Landry it might be best to look elsewhere for a starter even in Superflex leagues in Week 3.
Week 1
Mayfield completed 21 of 28 passes for 321 yards and 1 INT in Cleveland's 33-29 Week 1 loss to the Chiefs.
Mayfield and the Browns got off to a hot start as they scored points on all of their first half possessions and took a 22-10 lead going into the break.
Mayfield was unable to throw for any TD passes but completed 75% of his passes and led the Browns to score 29 points against the Chiefs defense.
The Browns had a chance for a game-winning TD drive, but the drive was halted as Baker threw an INT as he was falling down and attempting to throw the ball out of bounds.
Mayfield should be considered a top 15 option in Week 2 against the Texans.

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • From a real life perspective, Baker rebounded from a bad 2019. Under 1st-year HC Kevin Stefanski, Mayfield posted the 10th best Pro Football Focus passing grade (81.6). He was at 72.4 (QB21) in 2019.
  • Mayfield finished 10th in QBR, just behind Tom Brady and Russell Wilson.
  • Low volume limited his fantasy contributions, though. Among 16-game starters, only Ryan Tannehill attempted fewer passes than Mayfield (486). Baker posted only 4 QB1 weeks, with the first not surfacing until Week 7.
  • Mayfield finished as the QB3 in both Week 13 (at Tennessee) and Week 14 (vs. Baltimore). His only rushing TD of 2020 surfaced over that stretch.
  • Odell Beckham missed 9 games with an ACL tear. He’ll be a full go for Week 1.
  • Mayfield faced pressure at an acceptable 33.4% rate. Pro Football Focus slotted the Browns’ O-line 1st in pass blocking grade.
  • The unit still looks strong on paper, especially with 2020 Round 1 pick Jedrick Wills returning to man LT. In fact, all 5 starters return.
  • Mayfield missed Odell Beckham for 9 games last year (ACL tear). He’s expected to be fine for Week 1.
  • The Browns return Jarvis Landry and depth pieces Rashard Higgins and Donovan Peoples-Jones. Anthony Schwartz arrived in Round 3 as a bona fide field stretcher.
  • Baker’s proven durable, despite a smaller frame. He’s yet to miss a game due to injury through 3 seasons.
  • With Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt returning — plus the Browns fielding one of the league’s top defenses — Mayfield’s volume figures to remain very low. Current projections have him at ~31 attempts per game. Not ideal.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line

Baker finished as the QB17 last year. With low pass volume and scant production on the ground, he simply wasn’t positioned to perform well in fantasy.

Other than the return of Odell Beckham — post-ACL tear — not much changes for 2021. Expect Mayfield to remain a spot-start QB1.

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Browns QB Baker Mayfield has been playing through a partially torn labrum in his left shoulder, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. Mayfield suffered the injury in Week 2's win over the Texans. Surgery isn't needed "as of now," per Rapoport, and Mayfield hasn't missed a practice snap. He has, however, been playing with a shoulder harness, which might explain why he hasn't been very good the last couple of weeks. It's a situation to keep a close eye on going forward.

View all Baker Mayfield Shark Bites »

Browns QB Baker Mayfield appeared to injure his left arm while trying to make a tackle on an INT in the 2nd quarter of Sunday's game vs. the Texans. Stay tuned for an update. QB Case Keenum is Cleveland's backup.

Update: Mayfield returned on the next series.

View all Baker Mayfield Shark Bites »

Related Players Case Keenum

Browns QB Baker Mayfield has been activated from the COVID list. He'll get in a full week of practice and start in Sunday's plus matchup against the Texans.

View all Baker Mayfield Shark Bites »

The Browns have placed QB Baker Mayfield on the COVID list. We don't yet know whether he tested positive for the virus or came in contact with someone who did. Mayfield has a chance to be cleared in time for next weekend's game against the Texans if he doesn't have a positive test between now and then. If Mayfield is out for that one, Cleveland would turn to QB Case Keenum.

Update: NFL Network's Mike Garafolo reports that Mayfield came in contact with a COVID-positive individual. So he could be cleared as soon as Wednesday if he tests negative.

View all Baker Mayfield Shark Bites »

Related Players Case Keenum

Browns QB Baker Mayfield (ribs) practiced all week and isn’t listed on the final injury report. He’ll start Sunday’s game against the Bengals but is just a low-end QB2 in fantasy lineups.

View all Baker Mayfield Shark Bites »

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