Baker Mayfield - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Mayfield surprised last season, finishing as a borderline QB1 and proving startable against poor pass defenses. He was rewarded with a new contract this offseason.

He can put up those kind of numbers again in certain spots. But Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are a year older and the Buccaneers didn’t add much in terms of weapons.

Add in Mayfield adjusting to another new offense, and the floor is pretty low.

He is a low-end QB2 who may have some spike weeks that make him startable when he can exploit a matchup.

What We Learned Last Year

• Mayfield finished as the QB10 in total fantasy points and QB20 in points per game.
• His 3,907 passing yards ranked eighth among QBs. His 28 passing TDs tied for fourth.
• Mayfield missed no games due to injury. It was his first full season since 2020.
• He had eight top-12 finishes. He finished as QB25 or worse only two times.
• Mayfield’s per-game averages were well above his career averages.
  • 64.3% completion rate (61.9%)
  • 237.9 yards (228.4)
  • 1.65 TDs (1.46)
  • 0.59 INTs (0.83)
  • 7.3 adjusted yards per pass attempt (6.9)
• Among the 45 QBs with 135+ dropbacks, Mayfield ranked:
  • 18th in Pro Football Focus passing grade (76.8)
  • 19th in Big Time Throw percentage (4.4%)
  • 20th in Turnover Worthy Play percentage (3.3%)
  • 19th in Time to Throw (2.74 seconds)
  • 23rd in Completion Percentage Above Expectation (0.3%)
• He played behind a strong O-line that ranked 8th in Pro Football Focus' pass-blocking grades.

What to Expect in 2024

• Mayfield signed a three-year, $100 million contract with the Buccaneers this offseason with $50 million guaranteed. His $33.33 million per year ranks 16th among QBs.
• Mayfield enters his second season with the Buccaneers under HC Todd Bowles
• New OC Liam Coen spent last year as the Kentucky OC after coordinating the Rams in 2022.
  • In 2022, the Rams ranked 24th with 531 pass attempts.
• The Buccaneers invested in the offense around Mayfield in the NFL Draft:
  • OL Graham Barton (first round)
  • WR Jalen McMillan (third round)
  • RB Bucky Irving (fourth round)
• The Buccaneers are expected to take a slight step backward. They are tied for second in the NFC South with a 7.5 win total at most sportsbooks.
• The Buccaneers have the 21st-highest odds to win the Super Bowl at +5500 on most sportsbooks, second-best in the division.
• Mayfield enters his seventh season at 29 years old. According to our aging curve research, the average QB with Mayfield’s career produces at 97% of his peak value at age-29.