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Mayfield’s 2024 QB3 finish looks increasingly like an outlier. He was QB21 and QB19 in fantasy points per game in his other two seasons as Tampa Bay’s starter. And he lost TD machine Mike Evans this offseason.
The Bucs still have enough weapons and a strong offensive line. And Mayfield supplies above-average rushing production. But he’s best viewed as a spot starter in 1-QB leagues and a QB2 in superflex.
Customize Mayfield’s projection for your exact league settings inside the Draft War Room.
Mayfield threw for 3,693 yards with 26 TDs and 11 INTs across 17 games last year. He finished 10th in passing yards and tied for seventh in TDs.
Baker added another 382 yards and a score on 55 carries. Only eight QBs ran for more yards.
Mayfield finished 19th among QBs in fantasy points per game. He scored as a top-12 QB in seven of 17 outings.
Mayfield was much more productive before injuries to him and his pass catchers, ranking QB8 in fantasy points per game through Week 6 but just QB20 from Week 7 on.
Among 42 QBs with 150+ pass attempts last year, Mayfield ranked:
He proved more efficient early in the season, too:
The 2025 Buccaneers finished:
It was a balanced offense in terms of play calling, ranking 17th in pass rate and 18th in pass rate over expected.
WR injuries were a major factor, with Mike Evans, Emeka Egbuka, and Chris Godwin sharing the field for only the final four games.
Mayfield has sandwiched a big 2024 season between two mediocre campaigns as Tampa Bay’s starter.
He was QB21 in fantasy points per game in 2023 before jumping to QB3 in 2024, when he set career highs in completion rate (71.4%), yards per attempt (7.9), and, most importantly, TD rate (7.2%).
That 7.2% TD rate was the 18th-highest mark among 812 QB seasons of 250+ pass attempts since 2000. Mayfield has thrown a TD on 4.6% of his passes across his other seven NFL seasons.
Mayfield played all 17 games last year but appeared on the injury report early in the season with right biceps and knee issues. He suffered an AC joint sprain in his left shoulder near halftime of Week 12, missing the second half.
Mayfield also played all 17 games in both 2023 and 2024. He missed two games with a torn labrum in his left shoulder in 2021 and two games with a high-ankle sprain in 2022.
Mayfield also notably sustained two concussions in college.
Mayfield is back on the final season of the three-year, $100 million contract he signed in March 2024. He and the team have discussed a new deal this offseason but haven’t come to an agreement.
For the first time since 2013, WR Mike Evans won’t be a Buccaneer after departing for San Francisco in free agency.
Injuries limited Evans to a 30-368-3 receiving line across eight games last year. But over the previous two seasons, he accounted for:
It’s a significant loss for Mayfield, particularly in the red zone.
The Buccaneers are hoping that Emeka Egbuka is ready for the lead role after an up-then-down rookie season. He averaged 89.0 yards and 1.0 TDs over his first five games but just 41.1 yards and 0.1 TDs over his final 12. A Week 6 hamstring injury was at least partly to blame. The 19th overall pick of the 2025 draft is certainly capable of a Year 2 breakout.
Tampa Bay also returns WR Chris Godwin another season removed from that nasty 2024 ankle injury and WR Jalen McMillan, who has flashed across his first two NFL seasons. WR Ted Hurst arrived in the third round of the draft after two huge seasons at Georgia State.
This still has the potential to be an above-average WR corps. TE Cade Otton is a steady if unexciting pass catcher. And the Bucs have two plus pass-catching RBs in Bucky Irving and Kenneth Gainwell.
Mayfield will also be playing behind a sturdy offensive line that returns all five starters. OTs Tristan Wirfs and Luke Goedeke are particularly strong.
The Buccaneers canned OC Josh Grizzard after the season, replacing him with Zac Robinson. Mayfield worked with Robinson during his six-week stint with the Rams in 2022 and reportedly played a part in the hire.
Robinson spent five seasons working under Sean McVay in Los Angeles before serving as Falcons OC for the last two. Atlanta ranked sixth in yards and 13th in points in a Kirk Cousins-led offense in Robinson's debut. The Falcons fell to 14th in yards and 24th in points this past year, with worse QB play from Michael Penix Jr. and then Cousins.
Both of Robinson’s Atlanta offenses leaned run:
There’s no Bijan Robinson in Tampa Bay, though, so we expect Zac Robinson to shift at least a bit toward the pass. We project this to be a fairly balanced offense in 2026.
Mayfield finished QB3 in fantasy points per game back in 2024 thanks mostly to a historically high TD rate. That’ll be tough to match, especially without Evans. But Mayfield could pair strong passing efficiency with above-average rushing production to score as a top-10 QB this season.
Mayfield has finished QB21 and QB19 on more normal TD rates in his other two seasons as Buccaneers starter. He lost his top TD scorer in Evans and will be working in a new offense under OC Zac Robinson.
Without strong efficiency, Mayfield could again score as a mid-range to low-end QB2.
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Baker Mayfield's 2025 Injuries Were Worse Than We Thought
Baker Mayfield's 2025 Injuries Were Worse Than We Thought
Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield revealed on Netflix's Quarterback documentary that he sprained his MCL and PCL in Week 2 last year. Mayfield didn't miss any time with those injuries and didn't appear on the injury report with a knee until Week 5. He also dealt with a right biceps injury early last season and sprained the AC joint in his left shoulder near halftime of Week 12. He missed the second half of that game but returned the following week.
Baker Mayfield Helps Pick New OC
Baker Mayfield Helps Pick New OC
The Buccaneers are hiring Zac Robinson as their new OC, "with a big push" from QB Baker Mayfield, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. Mayfield worked with Robinson during his six-week stint with the Rams in 2022. Robinson spent five seasons working under Sean McVay in Los Angeles before serving as Falcons OC for the last two. Atlanta ranked sixth in yards and 13th in points in Robinson's debut, before falling to 14th in yards and 24th in points this past year. Both of Robinson's Falcons offenses ranked higher in rush attempts than pass attempts. Expect him to bring a balanced attack to Tampa Bay. Considering Mayfield's hand in the hiring, though, consider the move good news for the QB's chances of a bounce-back 2026.
Buccaneers Need New OC Again
Buccaneers Need New OC Again
The Buccaneers have fired OC Josh Grizzard, according to multiple reports. Grizzard spent just one season piloting the Tampa Bay offense after joining the team as pass-game coordinator in 2024. He spent seven years on the Dolphins offensive staff before that, working under head coaches Adam Gase, Brian Flores, and Mike McDaniel. Next season will mark the fifth time in five years under HC Todd Bowles that the Bucs have sported a different OC.
Mike Evans Likely Back For Week 15
Mike Evans Likely Back For Week 15
Buccaneers HC Todd Bowles said Wednesday morning that WR Mike Evans (collarbone) has shown everything he's needed to show in practice to be activated for Thursday night's game vs. the Falcons. We'll see how he's listed on the final injury report later today, but we're now projecting Evans to play in this one. OC Josh Grizzard said last week that Evans would likely be on a snap count in his first game back, so don't expect his usual level of playing time against Atlanta. That said, we'd expect to see him on the field in high-leverage situations, particularly near the end zone. You'd ideally wait a week before getting Evans back in fantasy lineups, but he's at least in the WR3/4 mix based on his TD upside. Consider Evans' return a slight ding to WR Emeka Egbuka and Chris Godwin's outlooks.
Baker Mayfield Active
Baker Mayfield Active
Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield (shoulder) is active for today’s game vs. the Cardinals. He was a full participant and took all the first-team reps in Friday’s practice. Mayfield is expected to play with extra protection – but not a brace – on that injured left shoulder. It shouldn’t impact his passing, but we’re expecting Mayfield’s rushing production to be limited. And a hit to that shoulder could knock him from the game. We’d stay away from Baker in 1-QB fantasy leagues this week.
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