Bottom Line

Kirk played well last year and is being paid like a core member of the offense. Bet on him maintaining a strong role. But Calvin Ridley’s arrival adds a big challenge to production.

Early best ball drafting found drafters struggling to weigh Kirk and Ridley vs. each other. But Ridley has since settled on the higher side of WR2 territory, with Kirk in high WR3 territory.

We agree that Ridley presents the highest ceiling among Jags WRs. But those ADPs also make Ridley more risky. Kirk still isn’t a must add, with other upside WRs around him. But he’s fine to mix into your drafting at cost. We want pieces of this Jacksonville offense.

What We Learned Last Year

• Kirk got the most money amid last offseason’s Jaguars pass-catcher spending spree. His four-year, $72 million contract tripled the total money in Zay Jones’ three-year deal, nearly doubled the guaranteed money, and more than doubled Jones’ annual average ($18 million vs. $8 million).
• Kirk immediately led the way in target share, but the gap wasn’t as wide as the salaries might indicate.
  • Kirk’s 23.6% target share ranked 23rd among WRs for the season.
  • Jones’ 22% ranked 33rd.
  • That marked a career high for Jones, while Kirk’s ranked second behind his 2019 share with the Cardinals (24.5% over 13 games, 11th among WRs for the year).
• Kirk notched the shortest average depth of target in his career in 2022. He played predominantly in the slot for the second straight year.
  • 77.8% pass snaps in the slot for the 2021 Cardinals, according to Pro Football Focus
  • 75.5% last year.
  • Even between those two seasons, his aDOT with the Jags checked in much shorter: 9.0 vs. 11.2 by our numbers. (The gap looks nearly the same elsewhere, too.)
  • Interestingly, his catch rate also fell: from 74.8% to 63.2%.
    • Last year’s rate lined up with the rest of his career.
• Kirk set a career high in yards per game for the second straight season, though his receptions per game (4.9) trailed his 2019 high (5.2).
  • His yards per catch (13.2) were the second highest of his career, trailing only his rookie year (13.7 in 2018).
• Kirk finished 12th among WRs in total PPR points; 20th in points per game.
  • He finished four of 17 weeks among the position’s top 7 PPR scorers.
  • He landed inside the top 20 five other times, with one more inside the top 30.
  • Kirk’s other seven outings all found him 43rd or worse. Four of those seven came in the seven games after the Week 11 bye.
    • Zay Jones generated three top-7 PPR finishes over that span.
• There were just six times all year that Kirk and Jones both finished inside the top 40 PPR wideouts.
  • They cracked the top 30 together three times, including two weeks of both inside the top 20.
• Kirk ranked 15th among WRs in targets, 14th in receptions, 13th in yards, and tied for eighth in TDs.

What to Expect in 2023

• The big change is obviously adding Calvin Ridley to the mix. He has performed and produced at a higher level than anyone who played for the 2022 Jaguars. That gives Ridley (arguably?) the highest ceiling among Jacksonville pass catchers. But we can only guess at what it means for 2023 target distribution.
• Kirk and Jones saw nearly identical playing time last year: Kirk played 88.2% of offensive snaps. Jones played 86.4% over his 16 games. Marvin Jones trailed both as the third WR.
• The Jaguars traded two draft picks for Ridley even while he was serving a one-year suspension. The second of those picks could become a second-rounder if he signs an extension with Jacksonville.
• If we assume that Ridley immediately grabs one of the top two WR spots, the salaries would suggest that Kirk should be the favorite over Zay Jones for the other spot. With Ridley and Jones outside WRs and Kirk running primarily from the slot, however, that could change by matchup and/or game plan.
• Winding up second vs. third in this WR corps will matter. The Jaguars ran 3-WR sets on just 54% of first downs last year, 18th in the league. Doug Pederson’s five years with the Eagles included just one in which the team exceeded 55%.
  • It’s certainly possible these Jaguars alter that rate for their personnel, but we can’t just assume it will happen.
• Unless you expect Ridley to assume the target share that ranked Marvin Jones just 74th among WRs last season, there will be less available for Kirk.