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Christian Kirk - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsChristian Kirk's Basic Stats

Christian Kirk
ADP: 7.3
Bye: 9
Experience: 5 Yr(s)
Age: 26.8
Height: 5'11"
Weight: 200
40 Time: 4.47
Speed Score: 96.60
SPARQx (Rank): 111.00 (70%)
Burst Score (Rank): 117.90 (32%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.54 (17%)
Catch Radius (Rank): 9.82 (15%)

Christian Kirk's Weekly Outlook

Week 3 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
4.7 61.1 0.4 8.5
Weekly Writeup
Kirk had a phenomenal bounce-back performance in Week 2 vs. the Chiefs, leading the team with 14 targets and 110 receiving yards. Some of this can be attributed to teammate Zay Jones (knee) still dealing with an injury, but maybe it's more that Week 1's dud was a fluke. We're in on Kirk as a solid WR3/flex option. The news that Jones has been ruled out for Week 3 only makes Kirk's case stronger.

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
4.5 59.3 0.4 8.5

Christian Kirk's 2023 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#28 Wide Receiver

138.8 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
7.3 76.1 978.6 6.4 2.4 0

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsChristian Kirk's Preseason Player Analysis

View WR Fantasy Rankings »
Bottom Line

Kirk played well last year and is being paid like a core member of the offense. Bet on him maintaining a strong role. But Calvin Ridley’s arrival adds a big challenge to production.

Early best ball drafting found drafters struggling to weigh Kirk and Ridley vs. each other. But Ridley has since settled on the higher side of WR2 territory, with Kirk in high WR3 territory.

We agree that Ridley presents the highest ceiling among Jags WRs. But those ADPs also make Ridley more risky. Kirk still isn’t a must add, with other upside WRs around him. But he’s fine to mix into your drafting at cost. We want pieces of this Jacksonville offense.

What We Learned Last Year
  • Kirk got the most money amid last offseason’s Jaguars pass-catcher spending spree. His four-year, $72 million contract tripled the total money in Zay Jones’ three-year deal, nearly doubled the guaranteed money, and more than doubled Jones’ annual average ($18 million vs. $8 million).
  • Kirk immediately led the way in target share, but the gap wasn’t as wide as the salaries might indicate.
    • Kirk’s 23.6% target share ranked 23rd among WRs for the season.
    • Jones’ 22% ranked 33rd.
    • That marked a career high for Jones, while Kirk’s ranked second behind his 2019 share with the Cardinals (24.5% over 13 games, 11th among WRs for the year).
  • Kirk notched the shortest average depth of target in his career in 2022. He played predominantly in the slot for the second straight year.
    • 77.8% pass snaps in the slot for the 2021 Cardinals, according to Pro Football Focus
    • 75.5% last year.
    • Even between those two seasons, his aDOT with the Jags checked in much shorter: 9.0 vs. 11.2 by our numbers. (The gap looks nearly the same elsewhere, too.)
    • Interestingly, his catch rate also fell: from 74.8% to 63.2%.
      • Last year’s rate lined up with the rest of his career.
  • Kirk set a career high in yards per game for the second straight season, though his receptions per game (4.9) trailed his 2019 high (5.2).
    • His yards per catch (13.2) were the second highest of his career, trailing only his rookie year (13.7 in 2018).
  • Kirk finished 12th among WRs in total PPR points; 20th in points per game.
    • He finished four of 17 weeks among the position’s top 7 PPR scorers.
    • He landed inside the top 20 five other times, with one more inside the top 30.
    • Kirk’s other seven outings all found him 43rd or worse. Four of those seven came in the seven games after the Week 11 bye.
      • Zay Jones generated three top-7 PPR finishes over that span.
  • There were just six times all year that Kirk and Jones both finished inside the top 40 PPR wideouts.
    • They cracked the top 30 together three times, including two weeks of both inside the top 20.
  • Kirk ranked 15th among WRs in targets, 14th in receptions, 13th in yards, and tied for eighth in TDs.
What to Expect in 2023
  • The big change is obviously adding Calvin Ridley to the mix. He has performed and produced at a higher level than anyone who played for the 2022 Jaguars. That gives Ridley (arguably?) the highest ceiling among Jacksonville pass catchers. But we can only guess at what it means for 2023 target distribution.
  • Kirk and Jones saw nearly identical playing time last year: Kirk played 88.2% of offensive snaps. Jones played 86.4% over his 16 games. Marvin Jones trailed both as the third WR.
  • The Jaguars traded two draft picks for Ridley even while he was serving a one-year suspension. The second of those picks could become a second-rounder if he signs an extension with Jacksonville.
  • If we assume that Ridley immediately grabs one of the top two WR spots, the salaries would suggest that Kirk should be the favorite over Zay Jones for the other spot. With Ridley and Jones outside WRs and Kirk running primarily from the slot, however, that could change by matchup and/or game plan.
  • Winding up second vs. third in this WR corps will matter. The Jaguars ran 3-WR sets on just 54% of first downs last year, 18th in the league. Doug Pederson’s five years with the Eagles included just one in which the team exceeded 55%.
    • It’s certainly possible these Jaguars alter that rate for their personnel, but we can’t just assume it will happen.
  • Unless you expect Ridley to assume the target share that ranked Marvin Jones just 74th among WRs last season, there will be less available for Kirk.

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Zay Jones, WR JAC

9 hours ago

Zay Jones ruled out for Week 3

Jaguars WR Zay Jones (knee) has been ruled out for Week 3 vs. the Texans. His absence should lead to greater opportunity for teammate Christian Kirk to build upon his resurgent 14-catch, 110-receiving-yard performance from last Sunday. See where Kirk lands in our current WR rankings.

View all Zay Jones Shark Bites »

Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence threw 32 times for 241 yards and two TDs in Sunday's win over the Colts. WR Christian Kirk saw just three targets (9.4% share), catching one for nine yards. WR Calvin Ridley, WR Zay Jones, TE Evan Engram, and RB Travis Etienne tallied more targets. There will be better days ahead for Kirk. But Ridley certainly looks like the top dog in this passing game -- and Kirk might not be significantly ahead of Jones and Engram. Consider him a WR3 going forward.

View all Christian Kirk Shark Bites »

Jaguars HC Doug Pederson is turning over play-calling duties to OC Press Taylor, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. "I totally trust Press," Pederson told NFL.com. "We think alike. We've been together for a long time, and he's around Trevor [Lawrence] all the time and knows what Trevor likes." We'd prefer Pederson continue calling plays considering Jacksonville's success last year. But we're ultimately not expecting a significant fantasy impact here. Taylor has worked under Pederson for six NFL seasons.

View all Trevor Lawrence Shark Bites »

Per beat writer John Shipley, Jaguars WRs Christian Kirk and Zay Jones “have picked up where they left off [last season].” Kirk and Jones enjoyed career years, finishing at PPR WR12 and WR26, respectively. A healthy Calvin Ridley figures to limit target volume. But the Underdog Fantasy ADPs on Kirk (WR27) and Jones (WR49) put them in a draftable range. See where they sit in our updated WR rankings.

View all Christian Kirk Shark Bites »

The NFL announced Monday that it has reinstated Jaguars WR Calvin Ridley. The 28-year-old hasn't played since Week 7 of 2021. Ridley initially left the team for personal reasons. The league then suspended him for all of 2022 after revealing that Ridley had placed football bets while he was away from the Falcons. Jacksonville acquired the wideout last November for a fifth-round 2023 NFL Draft pick and a conditional fourth-rounder for 2024. (That can become a third- or second-round pick.) The Jaguars now add Ridley to an offense that got quality fantasy football output from WR Christian Kirk, WR Zay Jones, and TE Evan Engram in 2022. Projecting the 2023 target shares will be a challenge, but each remains an upside player. Ridley's best ball ADP has been all over the place this early draft season. He has climbed as high as WR16 in Underdog drafts and currently sits 20th there, four WR spots ahead of Kirk. FFPC drafters, meanwhile, have Ridley 29th among WRs -- two spots behind Kirk. The two also sit close together on other draft sites. Keep the ADP variations in mind as you decide both whether and where to draft each Jaguars wideout. The collective talent can only help QB Trevor Lawrence, who's going eighth at the position in FFPC drafts right now.

View all Calvin Ridley Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View WR Dynasty Rankings »

Christian Kirk, WR JAC
Dynasty MVP 97.3
Position Rank #39 WR
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
318
502
857
Dynasty Write-up
Kirk was mocked last offseason after signing a mega free-agent contract. But we’d say he pretty much delivered, topping 75 catches and 1,000 yards alongside breakout QB Trevor Lawrence. Kirk's only 26 years old but now has to deal with Calvin Ridley as legit target competition.
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