Christian Kirk - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Kirk was a reliable flex option last year but continued to lack the upside and volume to rise into WR2 territory.

He’s a solid WR3 who will score you consistent points weekly – but won’t be a league winner.

What We Learned Last Year

• Kirk’s per-game stat lines were in line with his career averages:
  • 7.08 targets (6.78)
  • 4.75 receptions (4.44)
  • 65.6 yards (56.4)
  • 13.8 yards per catch (12.7)
  • 0.25 TDs (0.33)
• He ranked as the PPR WR45 in total fantasy points and WR33 in points per game.
• Kirk suffered a groin tear in Week 13 and missed the rest of the season.
• He had only one top-12 finish. He also had four WR37 or worse finishes.
• Kirk’s 20.8% target share ranked 39th among WRs.
• Among 92 WRs with 40+ targets, he ranked
  • 42nd in Pro Football Focus receiving grade
  • 19th in yards per route run (2.04)
  • 57th in average target depth (10.7)
• Among those same 92 WRs, Kirk was 21st in average separation yards (3.1), per NFL Next Gen Stats.

What to Expect in 2024

• Kirk enters his third season with the Jaguars under HC Doug Pederson and OC Press Taylor.
• He finished 20th among WRs in PPR points per game in his Jacksonville debut in 2022.
• The Jaguars are expected to perform similarly to last season. They are tied for the second-highest win total in the AFC South at 8.5 wins on most sportsbooks.
• They sit 17th in terms of highest Super Bowl odds at +5000 on most sportsbooks, second-highest in the division.
• Kirk enters his seventh season at 27 years old. According to our aging curve research, the average WR with Kirk’s career and profile will produce at 95-98% of his peak value at age-27.