Chuba Hubbard - Fantasy Points Outlook

What You Need to Know:

• Hubbard jumped into the lineup after Christian McCaffrey went down last season, drawing more than 50% of Carolina’s carries in each of the 5 games McCaffrey missed following his Week 3 injury. He tallied 63.1% carry share and 9.9% target share over that span.
• The distribution changed, however, the next time McCaffrey went down. With McCaffrey out for the final 5 games, Hubbard garnered just 41% of carries and 4.3% of targets.
• Carolina signed RB D’Onta Foreman to a 1-year deal at the start of free agency.
• Among 61 RBs with 70+ carries last season, Foreman ranked 22nd in Pro Football Focus’ elusive rating. Hubbard sat 47th. Foreman also easily beat Hubbard in receiving grade (albeit on just 10 targets), rushing grade (38th vs. 41st) and yards after contact per attempt (19th vs. 45th).
• The Panthers acquired RB Ameer Abdullah from Minnesota in the middle of last year and worked him ahead of Hubbard in the passing game during the 2nd McCaffrey-less stretch. They then let Abdullah walk in free agency.
• With 37 targets and 25 catches as a rookie, Hubbard already leads Foreman on career numbers in each category. Foreman has totaled just 22 targets and 18 receptions through 4 seasons of action. (He missed all of 2019.) His 239 receiving yards leads Hubbard (174), however.
• McCaffrey has lost 23 games to injury over the past 2 seasons. HC Matt Rhule has spoken of some plans for keeping his star back healthier, but has only specifically referred to holding McCaffrey out of preseason games and decreasing his practice exposure.
• Panthers HC Matt Rhule said RB Chuba Hubbard has “really improved” his pass protection. It’s only relevant if Christian McCaffrey misses more time, but it’s a nice development for the 23-year-old.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Hubbard carried handcuff upside into his rookie season and got quick work after Christian McCaffrey missed significant time for the 2nd straight year. But the Panthers siphoned work from him the 2nd time McCaffrey went down and then imported a rushing upgrade over Ameer Abdullah in free agency. Summer should start to reveal how they view Hubbard vs. D’Onta Foreman on the depth chart. At best, though, this is an unclear handcuff situation. That makes it better to avoid, especially if considering the guy who already disappointed once in the role.