|ADP||Rec||Rec Yds||Rec TDs||100||Fum|
What You Need to Know:
-Parker tallied 103-63-793-4 in 2020 — a step down from his breakout 2019 (128-72-1,202-9).
-He missed 2 games with a hamstring injury. He’s now missed at least 1 game in 5 of 6 career seasons.
-Parker saw an 18.8% target share in 7 games with Tua Tagovailoa— down from a 22.7% figure with Ryan Fitzpatrick.
-In those 7 games, Parker averaged 4 catches, 52.5 yards and .29 TDs. He hit 100 yards twice — and had games with 0 and 3 yards.
-Parker dropped 7 balls, giving him a bloated drop rate of 10%.
-Parker’s average depth of target (aDOT) dropped to 10.7 — easily a career low. He managed a long catch of just 31 yards.
-Parker caught only 4 of 13 red zone targets. His 6.3% TD rate fell shy of his pre-2020 career average (7.6%).
-NFL Next Gen Stats had Parker’s average separation on targets of 1.7 yards — tied with A.J. Green for the worst mark among all WRs/TEs with 43+ targets. Parker’s 2019 figure was 2.1 yards; 2.5 in 2018.
-The long-limbed Parker (6’3, 216) at least thrived in contested catch situations. He saw the 3rd most contested opportunities (35) and caught a strong 60%.
-Miami added speed WRs in free agency (Will Fuller) and the draft (top-10 pick Jaylen Waddle). Add in TE Mike Gesicki, and this Dolphins pass catching unit is among the league’s most stacked. Hence Parker’s current target projection of just 84.
-Tua enters year 2 as the clear cut starter. Now a full season removed from hip surgery, there’s reason to believe he’ll take a step forward after a lackluster 2020.
-Miami moved on from 2020 OC Chan Gailey. They replaced him from within co- OCs Eric Studesville and George Godsey. It’s unknown who will call plays.
Draft Sharks Bottom Line:
It feels like Parker’s been in the league for a decade, but he enters year 7 at 28 years old.
2020 brought on some predictable regression after a career-best 2019. He finished a ho hum WR40 in PPR thanks in part to an iffy rapport with Tua Tagovailoa. New target competition will likely keep him from approaching his career-highs from 2019, but he’s turned into a low-risk flier with an ADP of WR51.