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Ezekiel Elliott - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsEzekiel Elliott's Basic Stats

Ezekiel  Elliott
ADP: 3.9
Bye: 9
Experience: 6 Yr(s)
Age: 26.9
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 228
40 Time: 4.47
Burst Score (Rank): 114.30 (28%)

Ezekiel Elliott's 2022 Projections & Outlook


#22 Running Back

176.4 Projected Points

ADP Rush Atts Rush Yds Rush TDs 100 Fum Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs
3.9 219.3 898.9 8.3 2 2 44.9 305.3 1.7

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsEzekiel Elliott's Preseason Player Analysis

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What You Need to Know:

  • Elliott partially tore his right PCL in Week 4 of last season but played through it. He said after the team’s playoff loss that he would not need offseason surgery.
  • Elliott averaged 5.3 yards per rush through the first 4 games, then 3.7 the rest of the way.
  • He carried 16+ times in 6 of the team’s first 7 games. The only time he didn’t in that span was the Week 1 loss at Tampa that found Dallas only tallying 18 total rushing plays.
  • From Week 8 on, Elliott averaged just 11.9 carries and 42 rushing yards per game. He went posted 3 straight games of 95+ yards from Week 3 through Week 5 but then didn’t hit 70 yards again until the finale. From Week 8 through Week 17, Elliott never exceeded 52 rushing yards in a game.
  • He remained heavily involved in the passing game even over that span, garnering 10.5% target share. Elliott drew 10.1% for the whole season.
  • Elliott ranked just 23rd in Football Outsiders’ rushing DVOA (among 50 qualifying RBs) – well behind Tony Pollard (4th). But the gap proved much smaller in FO’s DYAR: 11th vs. 9th. (According to FO: “DYAR means a running back with more total value. DVOA means a running back with more value per play.”
  • His DVOA was in line with the past 3 years. The DYAR marked a bounce back vs. Elliott’s #20 ranking in 2020.
  • Elliott dipped vs. recent years in NFL Next Gen’s rushing yards over expected per attempt. His -0.11 ranked 32nd among 52 qualifying backs. It was his 4th straight season of decline in that category. (Interestingly, though, Elliott’s worst mark of his career, -1.54, came back in his 2016 rookie campaign.) Pollard ranked 5th-best in 2021 at 0.86.
  • Cowboys executive VP Stephen Jones said of Elliott in March: “I want that guy on my team. You talk about playing through some injuries. He’s a competitor. I think he’s a damn good running back. We’re fortunate to have him.”
  • Pollard siphoned some work from Elliott in 2021 vs. the previous year. He went from 21.8% carry share and 5.1% target share in shared 2020 contests to 31.4% and 7.7%, respectively, in his 16 games last year (including the playoff loss).

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Tony Pollard took some work away from Elliott in 2021 and was the more efficient runner. But he remained well behind the veteran in role, and it sure doesn’t sound like the Cowboys are interested in altering that setup. It’s possible, even, that leaving the knee injury behind shifts some of that work back to Elliott. We’re not betting on a rebound in efficiency for the aging back, but volume is king for fantasy RBs. An injured Elliott ranked 7th in the league in carries last year, 11th in opportunities per game (carries + targets) and 7th in total PPR points. An ADP that puts him toward the bottom of RB2 territory makes Elliott a fine draft value – and perhaps even a strong one if a healthy right knee does give him an efficiency boost.

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Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Ezekiel Elliott, RB DAL

9:50am EST 3/3/22

Last year in Dallas for Zeke?

Cowboys VP Stephen Jones commented on the status of RB Ezekiel Elliott. “I want Zeke on my team,” Jones said. “Obviously, his contract, his money is guaranteed. He’s going to be here [in 2022], no question. We’re fortunate to have him.” Zeke carries a massive $18.2 million cap hit for the upcoming season, but moving on would cost Dallas ~$30 million. 2023 is the first year the guarantees in Elliott’s contract dry up, so it’s quite possible the team cuts him then. It’s worth remembering that the veteran played through a partially torn PCL from Week 4 on in 2021, which surely contributed to his decline in play. Still, it’s clear that the explosive Tony Pollard — who enters a contract year — deserves a bigger share of backfield touches. Zeke averaged 16.7 touches per game; Pollard was at 11.2.

View all Ezekiel Elliott Shark Bites »

Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott said after Sunday’s loss to San Francisco that he played part of the season with a PCL injury. "It was hard," Elliott said. "It's never fun being banged up. But it's my job to make sure I get my body right and be ready for this team, for the fanbase and for the coaches. It's hard, but that's my job. I won't need a procedure. I just partially tore my PCL this year. It was an injury that wasn't going to get worse, but it was just going to take time. I was just doing my job in playing through the injury. I was going out there and doing what I needed to do for my team.” Zeke, 27 in July, will return for his 7th season in Dallas next fall.

View all Ezekiel Elliott Shark Bites »

Cowboys EVP Stephen Jones said Monday that RB Tony Pollard (foot) will be "ready to roll" in Saturday's Wild Card game vs. the 49ers. It's confirmation that Pollard was held out of the regular-season finale as a precaution. Pollard averaged 7.7 carries and 3.7 targets over his final 3 games and is likely looking at a similar workload in the playoffs.

View all Tony Pollard Shark Bites »

The Dallas Morning News' Michael Gehlken believes the Cowboys' starters are "unlikely to see [their] usual workload" vs. the Eagles tonight. Dallas has little to play for with the NFC East already clinched. QB Dak Prescott, RB Ezekiel Elliott, WR CeeDee Lamb, WR Amari Cooper and TE Dalton Schultz are all risky fantasy plays.

View all Dak Prescott Shark Bites »

Cowboys RB Tony Pollard (foot) has been downgraded to out for Saturday night's game vs. the Eagles. It's unclear if he suffered a setback with that foot or is just getting some rest with Dallas having already won the NFC East. Even with Pollard out, don't expect the Cowboys to overwork RB Ezekiel Elliott on Saturday. Corey Clement will mix in as the #2 RB.

View all Tony Pollard Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View RB Dynasty Rankings »

Ezekiel Elliott, RB DAL
Dynasty MVP 134.9
Position Rank #24 RB
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Dynasty Write-up
Zeke was out-played by Tony Pollard by just about any metric in 2021. But he's set to count over $18 million against the cap in 2022. We'll see if performance or pay wins out when it comes to playing time. But we'd be looking to get out from under Elliott in dynasty this offseason.

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