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Ezekiel Elliott - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsEzekiel Elliott's Basic Stats

Ezekiel  Elliott
ADP: N/A
Bye: 9
Experience: 6 Yr(s)
Age: 27.3
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 228
40 Time: 4.47
Burst Score (Rank): 114.30 (28%)

Ezekiel Elliott's Weekly Outlook

Week 13 Projections
Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
52.3 0.6 0.7 4.3 0 9.1
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
47.2 0.5 2 13.9 0.1 9.5

Ezekiel Elliott's 2022 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#20 Running Back

176.4 Projected Points

ADP Rush Atts Rush Yds Rush TDs 100 Fum Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs
Not Available 219.3 898.9 8.3 2 2 44.9 305.3 1.7

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsEzekiel Elliott's Preseason Player Analysis

View RB Fantasy Rankings »

What You Need to Know:

  • Elliott partially tore his right PCL in Week 4 of last season but played through it. He said after the team’s playoff loss that he would not need offseason surgery.
  • Elliott averaged 5.3 yards per rush through the first 4 games, then 3.7 the rest of the way.
  • He carried 16+ times in 6 of the team’s first 7 games. The only time he didn’t in that span was the Week 1 loss at Tampa that found Dallas only tallying 18 total rushing plays.
  • From Week 8 on, Elliott averaged just 11.9 carries and 42 rushing yards per game. He went posted 3 straight games of 95+ yards from Week 3 through Week 5 but then didn’t hit 70 yards again until the finale. From Week 8 through Week 17, Elliott never exceeded 52 rushing yards in a game.
  • He remained heavily involved in the passing game even over that span, garnering 10.5% target share. Elliott drew 10.1% for the whole season.
  • Elliott ranked just 23rd in Football Outsiders’ rushing DVOA (among 50 qualifying RBs) – well behind Tony Pollard (4th). But the gap proved much smaller in FO’s DYAR: 11th vs. 9th. (According to FO: “DYAR means a running back with more total value. DVOA means a running back with more value per play.”
  • His DVOA was in line with the past 3 years. The DYAR marked a bounce back vs. Elliott’s #20 ranking in 2020.
  • Elliott dipped vs. recent years in NFL Next Gen’s rushing yards over expected per attempt. His -0.11 ranked 32nd among 52 qualifying backs. It was his 4th straight season of decline in that category. (Interestingly, though, Elliott’s worst mark of his career, -1.54, came back in his 2016 rookie campaign.) Pollard ranked 5th-best in 2021 at 0.86.
  • Cowboys executive VP Stephen Jones said of Elliott in March: “I want that guy on my team. You talk about playing through some injuries. He’s a competitor. I think he’s a damn good running back. We’re fortunate to have him.”
  • Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott admitted that he was a little nervous about the status of his right PCL injury early in the offseason. "But by the time OTAs hit, I was back to 100 [percent]," he said.
  • Pollard siphoned some work from Elliott in 2021 vs. the previous year. He went from 21.8% carry share and 5.1% target share in shared 2020 contests to 31.4% and 7.7%, respectively, in his 16 games last year (including the playoff loss).


Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Tony Pollard took some work away from Elliott in 2021 and was the more efficient runner. But he remained well behind the veteran in role, and it sure doesn’t sound like the Cowboys are interested in altering that setup. It’s possible, even, that leaving the knee injury behind shifts some of that work back to Elliott. We’re not betting on a rebound in efficiency for the aging back, but volume is king for fantasy RBs. An injured Elliott ranked 7th in the league in carries last year, 11th in opportunities per game (carries + targets) and 7th in total PPR points. An ADP that puts him toward the bottom of RB2 territory makes Elliott a fine draft value – and perhaps even a strong one if a healthy right knee does give him an efficiency boost.

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Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Ezekiel Elliott, RB DAL

10:37pm EST 11/24/22

Elliott delivers vs. Giants

Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott posted a season-high 92 rushing yards in Thursday's win over the Giants, including a TD from 6 yards out early in the 2nd quarter. He actually trailed Tony Pollard in both carries (18-16) and targets (2-1) for the game, as Dallas went run heavy. Pollard averaged just 3.3 yards per rush and collected only 2 yards on 2 receptions. The level of work would be enough to support both RBs going forward, though we wouldn't expect Dallas to run the ball more than it throws most weeks. Next Sunday brings a Colts D that favors the pass more than the run. After that, however, comes a Houston defense that has been league-worst against the run this year.

View all Ezekiel Elliott Shark Bites »

Cowboys RB Tony Pollard matched Ezekiel Elliott's 15 carries in the latter's return from a knee injury. Pollard, of course, out-gained Elliott 80 yards to 42 on the ground. Elliott claimed both rushing scores, however. Pollard made up for that with a huge receiving day. He led the team in targets (6), catches (6) and receiving yards (109), while scoring both of the team's receiving TDs. Those came from 30 and 68 yards out. There might be weeks of frustrating usage for Pollard going forward, but he'll be tough to sit.

View all Tony Pollard Shark Bites »

Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott (knee) is active for today’s game vs. the Vikings. He was limited in practice all week but is reportedly "light years ahead of last week." It’s unclear exactly how backfield work will be divvied between RB Tony Pollard and Elliott in his 1st game back from the knee injury. See where both guys sit in the Week 11 RB Rankings.

View all Ezekiel Elliott Shark Bites »

The Cowboys plan to give RB Tony Pollard "a little bit more in terms of touches" than RB Ezekiel Elliott agains the Vikings today, NFL Network's Tom Pelissero reports. Dallas wants to "ease Elliott back in" coming off an LCL injury and "significant contusion all the way down his shin" back in Week 7, per Pelissero. Elliott will wear a brace on that knee today. Consider him a TD-dependent RB3 play in fantasy lineups. Pollard is a RB2.

View all Tony Pollard Shark Bites »

The Cowboys expect RB Ezekiel Elliott (knee) to play today against the Vikings, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. He adds that 1 source called Elliott "light years ahead of last week." We all know how much Dallas likes to work Elliott when he's in the lineup, but we're still betting that Tony Pollard gets enough today to be viable for fantasy football lineups.

View all Ezekiel Elliott Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View RB Dynasty Rankings »

Ezekiel Elliott, RB DAL
Dynasty MVP 73.9
Position Rank #60 RB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
350
350
350
Dynasty Write-up
Zeke was out-played by Tony Pollard by just about any metric in 2021. But he's set to count over $18 million against the cap in 2022. We'll see if performance or pay wins out when it comes to playing time. But we'd be looking to get out from under Elliott in dynasty this offseason.

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