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Ezekiel Elliott - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Ezekiel  Elliott
DAL

RB DAL

#4 Running Back

254 Projected Points

ADP: 1.8
Bye: 7
Experience: 5 Yr(s)
Age: 26
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 225
40 Time: 4.45

2021 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#4 Running Back

254 Projected Points

ADP Rush Atts Rush Yds Rush TDs 100 Fum Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs
1.8 268 1203 13 4 2 57 443 2

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

3d Projection

Med Floor

223.5

DS Projection

254

Consensus

38 other sites
250.5

High Ceiling

327.7

Ceiling Likelihood

Medium
How likely they will reach their ceiling projection

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • Dallas’ O-line was in shambles last season. LT Tyron Smith lost 14 games to a neck injury. RT La’el Collins missed the whole season with a hip injury. RG Zack Martin lost 6 games to a calf strain. C Travis Frederick retired for health reasons before the season.
  • The unit fell from 7th in Pro Football Focus run-blocking grade in 2019 -- with those guys healthy and in the lineup -- to 29th in 2020.
  • Martin, Smith and Collins should be back. Tyler Biadasz looks poised to take over at center. He was just a 4th-round pick last year but drew a higher PFF run-blocking grade in limited duty than more frequent 2020 starter Joe Looney.
  • The O-line issues contributed to Elliott posting the worst PFF rushing grade of his career. He ranked just 43rd among 63 RBs with 75+ carries. (Tony Pollard checked in 13th.)
  • Elliott also trailed Pollard in PFF’s elusive rating, but his number in that category saw only a slight dip vs. 2019 and ranked 2nd-best for his career.
  • Other measures, however, found the 2 closer together. Football Outsiders rated Elliott 20th among 47 qualifiers in rushing DYAR, vs. Pollard at 18th. Elliott ranked just 27th in DVOA vs. Pollard’s #13 placement, but he finished 25th in success rate; Pollard 37th.
  • NFL’s Next Gen Stats had Elliott gaining 0.07 rushing yards over expectation per attempt. Pollard beat that, but only by 0.06 (at 0.13). To add some context, here were the splits between some other teammate pairs:
    • Raheem Mostert over Jeff Wilson Jr. by 0.10
    • Devin Singletary over Zack Moss by 0.22
    • J.K. Dobbins over Gus Edwards by 0.53
    • Nick Chubb over Kareem Hunt by 1.38
    • Ronald Jones over Leonard Fournette by 1.52
  • Football Outsiders also rated Elliott 5th in “effective yards,” higher than his #9 ranking in actual rushing yards. By FO’s explanation, that discrepancy generally points to a player outperforming his actual results.
  • Elliott beat Pollard in receiving DYAR and DVOA, though he checked in just 25th and 32nd -- respectively -- among 50 qualifying RBs.
  • In 2019, Elliott ranked 10th in receiving DYAR, 15th in receiving DVOA, 1st in rushing DYAR and 4th in rushing DVOA.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Elliott is heading into his 6th NFL season. It’s quite likely that he has declined at least a little vs. the beginning of his career. But the results of his first 5 years also suggest that injuries to teammates impacted his 2020 quite a bit. Dak Prescott’s Week 5 downfall certainly hurt the offense on whole. And Elliott undoubtedly was hurt by losing his starting center plus another 36 player games among LT Tyron Smith, RT La’el Collins and RG Zack Martin. All 3 of those guys return this year, as does Prescott. Tony Pollard also returns as a workload challenger, but he reached 10 carries just twice in 15 shared games with Elliott last year. And the season’s final 2 contests -- following the game Elliott missed with a hamstring injury -- found Elliott out-carrying Pollard 33-14.

We see no reason to project Pollard to take significantly more work from Elliott in 2021. The Dallas starter belongs in consideration near the end of Round 1 in fantasy drafts.

 

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott is down to 218 pounds, the lightest he's been as a pro. “I feel quicker," Elliott said on the 1st day of training camp on Thursday. Several Cowboys beat writers noted that Zeke looked slimmer and faster than last year. That jibes with what we heard from Elliott's trainer earlier this month. All signs are pointing to a big bounce-back 2021 season.

View all Ezekiel Elliott Shark Bites »

Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott's personal trainer believes he's "way quicker, way more elusive" than he was even a few months ago. "I don’t think Zeke has ever worked like this in the offseason," trainer Josh Hicks added. We thought Elliott looked sluggish at times last season, when he averaged a career-low 4.0 yards per carry and ranked a middling 26th among 47 qualifying RBs in Pro Football Focus' Elusive Rating. So it's good to hear he's putting work in this offseason. “Zeke looks great,” QB Dak Prescott said. “He’s in the best shape of his life. Looking fast." With Prescott back and hopefully better health on the offensive line, Elliott is an obvious 2021 bounce-back candidate.

View all Ezekiel Elliott Shark Bites »

Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott (calf) is active for today’s game vs. the Eagles. We’re expecting him to share backfield work with Tony Pollard, leaving both guys as just RB3 or flex plays.

View all Ezekiel Elliott Shark Bites »

Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott (calf) is expected to play against the Eagles today, per NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. Zeke remained limited in practice all week and might be returning to a committee backfield alongside Tony Pollard. Last time we saw Elliott 2 weeks ago, he tallied 12 carries and 3 targets to Pollard's 11 carries and 2 targets.

View all Ezekiel Elliott Shark Bites »

The Cowboys list RB Ezekiel Elliott as questionable for Sunday's game against the Eagles with the calf injury that kept him out last week. Elliott put in limited practices all week and seems likely to take the field. Fantasy football owners might be better off if he turns up inactive, though. If Elliott does play, we'd bet on something near an even touch split between Elliott and Pollard. We'll keep an eye on Elliott's status leading up to the early Sunday games.

View all Ezekiel Elliott Shark Bites »

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