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Ezekiel Elliott - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Ezekiel  Elliott
DAL

RB DAL

#4 Running Back

254 Projected Points

ADP: Not Available
Bye: 7
Experience: 5 Yr(s)
Age: 26
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 225
40 Time: 4.45

Weekly Outlook

3d Projection

Med Floor

11.4

DS Projection

15.8

Consensus

38 other sites
15

Low Ceiling

19.4

Rest of
Season

14.7

Week 6 Projections
Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
89 0.8 2 15.3 0.1 15.8
Weekly Writeup
Zeke enters Week 6 as the PPR RB4. Sunday turns up a strong matchup with a New England run D that sits just 22nd in Football Outsiders’ DVOA.

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
70 0.8 3 23 0.1 14.7
Week 5
The Elliott Renaissance resumed with his 21 carries for 110 yards and a rushing TD against the Giants. He had 5 runs of 10-plus yards, including a 13-yard TD, and caught 2 of 3 targets, including 1 that went for a 4-yard TD. He returned to the field after knocking over a camera-bearing pylon caused an apparent back injury for the scoring play, on which he was so far open that he high-stepped into the end zone. With Elliott and RB Tony Pollard, the Cowboys have 200 rushing yards in 2 straight games for the 1st time in 19 games.
Zeke has moved up to 3rd in the NFL with 452 rushing yards. He might not be as effective in the 2 road games coming up in the next 3 weeks, but Elliott has returned to a must-start status until further notice. A U.S. District Court denied RT La’el Collins’ appeal for an injunction to end his suspension, so he will miss a 5th game when Dallas plays at New England on Sunday. His absence hasn’t really influenced an offense that has functioned well with backup RT Terence Steele starting.
Week 4
Elliott had his longest run (47 yards) since 2016 and his 6th-highest yardage total (143 yards in 20 carries). Included was a 1-yard TD, running behind G Conner McGovern lined up as an FB. In a game when QB Dak Prescott threw just 22 passes, the only 1 directed toward an RB was an incomplete pass targeted for Elliott. A 245-yard rushing attack ran frequently behind RG Zack Martin, possibly Dallas’s most valuable offensive player.
Zeke has been rejuvenated in a potent rushing attack, part of an effective balanced offense. Sunday’s opponents, the Giants, won for the 1st time in Week 4. If they can keep this week competitive, the outcome could be decided by the running of Elliott and RB Tony Pollard. If it’s close and the Cowboys must pass, Pollard could take playing time away from Elliott. Going forward, if Zeke isn’t injured, you can consider him the must-start Elliott of the late teens.
Week 3
We weren’t the only ones questioning whether Elliott’s time as the Cowboys’ bell cow in the running game was up. He and the Dallas coaching staff showed us that reports of Zeke’s demise were premature. Elliott took the lead role in a Cowboys running game that ran up 118 yards in the 1st half and coasted in the 2nd. Zeke finished with 17 carries for 95 yards and 2 TDs. He caught all 3 passes thrown to him and appeared to have a 3rd TD on a short pass that a replay showed he had come up short of the goal line. Elliott would easily have exceeded 100 yards if he had been needed in a 2nd half when #3 RB Corey Clement finished.
This week’s opponent, Carolina, has allowed an NFL-best 45 rushing yards per game and only 1 TD. It’s likely that the Cowboys again will intersperse Elliott’s carries with Pollard’s. If Dallas again can get an early lead, we could see the ‘Boys protect that advantage by keeping the ball on the ground to run out the clock.
Week 2
In Week 1, Elliott had 11 carries for 33 yards. Against the Chargers, he was on a similar pace with 33 yards in his 1st 9 carries. He was more productive thereafter, with an additional 38 yards in 7 attempts with a long gain of 19 yards. He punched the ball into the end zone from the 6-yard line in the 1st quarter. Elliott caught both passes thrown his way for a meaningful 26 yards, much more production than his 6 receiving yards in the season opener. We don’t want to say Zeke is the old man of the offense at age 26, but the biggest threat to his playing time and fantasy value is losing playing time to dynamic, seemingly much younger 24-year-old Tony Pollard.
Pro Bowl RG Zack Martin returned Sunday from the Covid-19 list and made a huge difference for Elliott and Pollard with 142 of Dallas’s 198 rushing yards to the right. Expect that to continue whoever is running the ball. Also, don’t be surprised if Pollard continues to eat away at Zeke’s playing time.
Week 1
Elliott had 11 carries for 33 yards, with a long gain of 13 yards. He failed to score from the 2-yard line and was a non-factor in the passing game, with 2 catches for 3 yards each. We couldn’t see it, but USA Today reported that QB Dak Prescott checked out of running plays on 12 occasions. The Bucs had the NFL’s best run defense in 2020. The Cowboys emphasized how well he picked up blitzes, but that’s not the skill that brought him a 6-year, $90-million contract extension in 2019.

Last year we wrote, “Wear and tear in years past have made Zeke an old 25-year-old.” We could find out Sunday if he’s an old 26-year-old. It seems likely that the Cowboys would have more than 14 RB carries against the Chargers. Last season, Elliott ran for 127 yards and 2 TDs against them. In addition, Pro Bowl RG Zack Martin will be returning from the Covid-19 list.

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • Dallas’ O-line was in shambles last season. LT Tyron Smith lost 14 games to a neck injury. RT La’el Collins missed the whole season with a hip injury. RG Zack Martin lost 6 games to a calf strain. C Travis Frederick retired for health reasons before the season.
  • The unit fell from 7th in Pro Football Focus run-blocking grade in 2019 -- with those guys healthy and in the lineup -- to 29th in 2020.
  • Martin, Smith and Collins should be back. Tyler Biadasz looks poised to take over at center. He was just a 4th-round pick last year but drew a higher PFF run-blocking grade in limited duty than more frequent 2020 starter Joe Looney.
  • The O-line issues contributed to Elliott posting the worst PFF rushing grade of his career. He ranked just 43rd among 63 RBs with 75+ carries. (Tony Pollard checked in 13th.)
  • Elliott also trailed Pollard in PFF’s elusive rating, but his number in that category saw only a slight dip vs. 2019 and ranked 2nd-best for his career.
  • Other measures, however, found the 2 closer together. Football Outsiders rated Elliott 20th among 47 qualifiers in rushing DYAR, vs. Pollard at 18th. Elliott ranked just 27th in DVOA vs. Pollard’s #13 placement, but he finished 25th in success rate; Pollard 37th.
  • NFL’s Next Gen Stats had Elliott gaining 0.07 rushing yards over expectation per attempt. Pollard beat that, but only by 0.06 (at 0.13). To add some context, here were the splits between some other teammate pairs:
    • Raheem Mostert over Jeff Wilson Jr. by 0.10
    • Devin Singletary over Zack Moss by 0.22
    • J.K. Dobbins over Gus Edwards by 0.53
    • Nick Chubb over Kareem Hunt by 1.38
    • Ronald Jones over Leonard Fournette by 1.52
  • Football Outsiders also rated Elliott 5th in “effective yards,” higher than his #9 ranking in actual rushing yards. By FO’s explanation, that discrepancy generally points to a player outperforming his actual results.
  • Elliott beat Pollard in receiving DYAR and DVOA, though he checked in just 25th and 32nd -- respectively -- among 50 qualifying RBs.
  • In 2019, Elliott ranked 10th in receiving DYAR, 15th in receiving DVOA, 1st in rushing DYAR and 4th in rushing DVOA.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Elliott is heading into his 6th NFL season. It’s quite likely that he has declined at least a little vs. the beginning of his career. But the results of his first 5 years also suggest that injuries to teammates impacted his 2020 quite a bit. Dak Prescott’s Week 5 downfall certainly hurt the offense on whole. And Elliott undoubtedly was hurt by losing his starting center plus another 36 player games among LT Tyron Smith, RT La’el Collins and RG Zack Martin. All 3 of those guys return this year, as does Prescott. Tony Pollard also returns as a workload challenger, but he reached 10 carries just twice in 15 shared games with Elliott last year. And the season’s final 2 contests -- following the game Elliott missed with a hamstring injury -- found Elliott out-carrying Pollard 33-14.

We see no reason to project Pollard to take significantly more work from Elliott in 2021. The Dallas starter belongs in consideration near the end of Round 1 in fantasy drafts.

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

ESPN's Adam Schefter confirms that Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott (ribs) is expected to play against the Patriots today. He was limited in practice all week, but we never heard any concern about his status. Elliott should get his usual workload today.

View all Ezekiel Elliott Shark Bites »

The Cowboys list RB Ezekiel Elliott (ribs) as questionable for Sunday's game against the Patriots. He was limited in practice all week. Zeke played through this injury last week and is fully expected to play on Sunday.

View all Ezekiel Elliott Shark Bites »

Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott (knee) is active for today’s game vs. the Giants. He sat out Wednesday with what he described as knee “tightness” and then was limited on Thursday and Friday. We haven’t heard anything about his workload being reduced today.

View all Ezekiel Elliott Shark Bites »

ESPN's Adam Schefter confirms that Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott (knee) is expected to play vs. the Giants today. Zeke sat out Wednesday's practice with what he called knee "tightness" but returned to limited workouts on Thursday and Friday. We've heard nothing to suggest that he'll be limited today.

View all Ezekiel Elliott Shark Bites »

Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott (knee) is listed as questionable for this weekend’s game vs. the Giants. He sat out Wednesday with what he described as knee “tightness” and then was limited on Thursday and Friday. Zeke is expected to play on Sunday but comes with elevated risk in Week 5 fantasy lineups. RB Tony Pollard could pick up extra volume.

View all Ezekiel Elliott Shark Bites »

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