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Ezekiel Elliott - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsEzekiel Elliott's Basic Stats

Ezekiel  Elliott
ADP: 10.11
Bye: 11
Experience: 7 Yr(s)
Age: 28.1
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 228
40 Time: 4.47
Burst Score (Rank): 114.30 (28%)

Ezekiel Elliott's Weekly Outlook

Week 3 Projections
Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
24.1 0.2 1.8 11.8 0.1 5.4
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
28.3 0.3 0.8 5 0 5.1

Ezekiel Elliott's 2023 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#56 Running Back

53 Projected Points

ADP Rush Atts Rush Yds Rush TDs 100 Fum Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs
10.11 98.9 335.5 2.3 0.7 1.3 10.9 70.6 0.2

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsEzekiel Elliott's Preseason Player Analysis

View RB Fantasy Rankings »

Bottom Line

Elliott sat on the free agent market until mid- August. He took a relatively light $600K signing bonus ($1.55M base salary) to be a complementary piece behind Rhamondre Stevenson.

Stevenson, of course, is fresh off a breakout 2022.

With little to offer as a pass-catcher and New England’s offense projecting no better than league average, Zeke looks like an RB5 stash.

What We Learned Last Year

-Elliott continued to battle knee trouble. He missed two games with an October MCL sprain.

-He posted a career-low 3.8 yards per carry. But he remained relevant in fantasy on the strength of 12 rushing TDs — tied for second most of his career.

-Elliott ranked T-3rd league-wide in goal line carries (26).

-Among 22 RBs with 200+ carries, Elliott ranked T-18th in yards after contact per attempt, 19th in Pro Football Focus rushing grade, and 20th in PFF’s Elusive Rating.

-Zeke garnered only 23 targets, a 4% team share. He caught a career-low 17 balls.

What to Expect in 2023

-We expect Elliott to see the bulk of his work on early downs, in short yardage, and in the red zone.

-We know HC Bill Belichick is a stickler for ball security. Zeke didn’t fumble once in 2022; Stevenson fumbled twice.

-Damien Harris, now in Buffalo, averaged 9.6 carries in games with Stevenson last year. It’s a reasonable expectation for Zeke.

-Elliott just doesn’t bring much receiving upside, as Stevenson beats him in that category.

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Rhamondre Stevenson, RB NE

12:37am EDT 9/18/23

Rhamondre Stevenson finds end zone vs. Dolphins

Patriots RB Rhamondre Stevenson bounced back in Week 2, recording 15 carries for 50 yards and a TD on the ground vs. the Dolphins. He also added 3 catches on as many targets for 10 yards as a receiver. Fantasy managers are assuredly glad to see this resurgent performance. Still, teammate Ezekiel Elliott is on the field and used an annoying amount of the time. The veteran logged 5 attempts for 13 yards and accounted for 33.3% of the backfield carries. We still like Stevenson in a tough matchup vs. the Jets in Week 3 regardless.

View all Rhamondre Stevenson Shark Bites »

Patriots RB Rhamondre Stevenson managed just 25 yards on 12 carries against the Eagles Sunday. He made up for that (in PPR leagues, at least) with 6 catches for 64 yards on 6 targets. That marked just 11.1% target share among QB Mac Jones' 54 pass attempts. Elliott actually edged Stevenson with 7 targets, catching 5 for 14 yards. We'll see how the distribution looks in lower-volume games. Stevenson did get a solid 60% share of RB carries, with Ezekiel Elliott taking 7 and Ty Montgomery 1. Stevenson and the Patriots get an upside matchup with the Dolphins in Week 2. If Elliott maintains that kind of receiving share, he could be a standalone fantasy option in deeper leagues. But we'd like to see another game before boosting him to that level.

View all Rhamondre Stevenson Shark Bites »

On Tuesday, ESPN's Mike Reiss tweeted that Patriots RB Ezekiel Elliott saw "a notable uptick in work" in practice behind starter Rhamondre Stevenson. Reiss specified that Elliott received increased usage as a pass-catcher out of the backfield. Granted, this is only one report. We don't want to overreact or make any big takeaways here. The former All-Pro saw a career-low 23 targets with the Cowboys last season and likely won't be too much of a threat to Stevenson in that department. That said, we'll keep an eye on future reports should Elliott continue being utilized as a pass-catcher in practice as it could cut into the point scoring ceiling of Stevenson. He fell a smidge in our PPR RB rankings following Zeke's signing, but we still feel confident Stevenson will be the clear RB1 in this offense. Check back for further updates as we get more information.

View all Ezekiel Elliott Shark Bites »

Patriots RBs Pierre Strong (concussion) and Ty Montgomery (leg) returned to practice on Tuesday. Strong isn’t yet cleared for full contact, per reporter Zack Cox. Montgomery sustained an undisclosed leg injury on day 2 of training camp. Neither guy is on the fantasy radar in standard-size leagues following the arrival of Zeke Elliott.

View all Pierre Strong Jr. Shark Bites »

The Patriots are unsurprisingly happy so far to have RB Ezekiel Elliott on board. (Otherwise, why would they have signed him?) Coaches have praised his football intelligence and communication with new teammates. The most noteworthy comment, though, seems like OC Bill O'Brien telling ESPN's Mike Reiss, "I do think he's a three-down back." Elliott's receiving fell way off last year, from 2.8 receptions per game in 2021 to just 1.1 in 2022. He also saw the second-fewest pass-blocking reps of his career, according to Pro Football Focus, trailing only a 2017 season in which Elliott was suspended for six games. This might be a throwaway comment from O'Brien. We'd be shocked if New England actually treated Elliott like a challenger to Rhamondre Stevenson's pass-game snaps. But we'll also keep watching for specifics on the new old guy's role. There remains plenty of separation between Stevenson and Elliott in our 2023 PPR rankings.

View all Ezekiel Elliott Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View RB Dynasty Rankings »

Ezekiel Elliott, RB NE
Dynasty MVP 14.8
Position Rank #98 RB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
58
72
107
Dynasty Write-up
Last year, Elliott set a career-low with 3.7 YPC. His explosive play rate hit rock bottom. At 28, Elliott’s days as a weekly fantasy starter are over.
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