Bottom Line

Williams isn’t a special talent among RBs.

His Saints contract relative to this offseason’s market makes him look like a good bet for work. But opportunities could dwindle if Alvin Kamara avoids suspension and rookie Kendre Miller impresses coaches this summer.

Williams makes for a fine RB4 on best ball rosters and an OK reserve in managed leagues. His ceiling will be limited there, however. You’re likely to find more upside in other handcuff/committee types in that range for lineup-setting formats.

What We Learned Last Year

• If you give Williams a bunch of scoring opportunities, he’ll do a bunch of scoring. His 17 TDs trailed only Austin Ekeler in 2022. All of Williams’ scores came on the ground.
  • 16 of those came inside the red zone.
  • 14 of those came from inside the 5-yard line. Williams’ 28 carries in that range were eight more than anyone else, 12 ahead of the nearest RB.
• Williams also set career highs for the second straight year in carries per game and yards per game. After finishing each of his four Packers seasons in the range of 7.6 to 9.6 carries per game, Williams averaged 11.8 and then 15.4 in his two years with the Lions.
• His receptions disappeared in Year 2 in Detroit, though. Williams’ 2.0 catches per game in 2021 lined up with his Green Bay numbers. He averaged just 0.7 in 2022, 13th among Lions.
• Williams has posted his two lowest yards-per-catch rates the past two years.
• His rushing efficiency numbers – standard and advanced – fell right in line with previous years.

What to Expect in 2023

• Williams got the third-largest free agent contract among RBs this offseason, whether you look at total money, annual average, or guarantees.
• That added him to a backfield with basically nothing behind Alvin Kamara. Non-Kamara Saints RBs combined for just 103 carries last season, with 60% of that going to Mark Ingram in just 10 games.
• New Orleans then drafted RB Kendre Miller in Round 3. HC Dennis Allen has since touted Miller’s multi-faceted rushing ability, as well as his all-around game.
• The Saints ranked 14th in rushing attempts last season after two straight seasons in the top five. There’s room to stay in that range even with more of a passing lean than the past few seasons.
  • New Orleans ranked fourth-slowest in situation-neutral play pace last year, down from 14th in 2021.
  • The team did finish 28th and 23rd the two years before that but generally operated faster with Drew Brees.
  • We can’t expect the Saints to match the offensive efficiency of the Brees era. But Allen has called new QB Derek Carr one of the smartest football minds he’s been around and said values intelligence highly at QB. It seems fair to expect such a QB upgrade to yield faster play pace.
• Williams’ specific role will depend on a few factors that will likely remain unknowns well into summer (and maybe beyond).
  • The biggest question is Kamara’s legal status. If he avoids suspension, he’s almost certainly still the backfield leader. If he does get suspended before the season begins, the next question will be: how long?
  • Miller figures to be someone we and the Saints learn about throughout the summer. The team clearly likes the third-round rookie. How much work he takes and how quickly remains to be seen.