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Jared Goff - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Jared Goff
DET

QB DET

#33 Quarterback

297 Projected Points

ADP: Not Available
Bye: 9
Experience: 5 Yr(s)
Age: 27
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 215
40 Time: 4.75

Weekly Outlook

3d Projection

High Floor

13.8

DS Projection

17

Consensus

38 other sites
19

High Ceiling

24

Rest of
Season

18.2

Week 6 Projections
Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
236 1.3 0.7 7 17
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
244 1.4 0.8 6 18.2
Week 4
Goff completed 24 of 38 passes for 299 yards and 2 TDs in the Lions' Week 4 loss to the Bears, adding 3 rushes for 8 yards.
Goff and the Lions moved the ball well against the Bears, but they struggled in the red zone with Goff fumbling 3 times during the game.
Goff threw both TD passes to Kalif Raymond in the 2nd half. The Lions offense has been a bit better than expected, but Goff remains a low-end QB2.
Week 3
In negative game scripts in each of the first 2 games of the year, Goff averaged 272 yards and 2.5 passing TDs. Detroit kept this game close throughout. As a result, he threw just 30 passes while also being able to play conservatively, and he failed to throw a single TD pass. The good news is that he took what the defense gave him, allowing the team to move the ball. He didn’t make any critical errors, and that led to the Lions having a lead into the last minute of the game before they lost on a record-long FG by Justin Tucker.

Goff’s season-long production has been skewed by a 92-snap, 57 pass-attempt performance in Week 1. In the 2 games since, he’s averaged just 33 pass attempts, 231 yards and 1 TD. He has no real weapons at WR, and he has to rely upon T.J. Hockenson and the RBs to help his fantasy production, and that’s not a path to consistent fantasy success.
Week 2
Goff looked viable once again against the Packers. Did he have some not so great throws and turn the ball over? Of course. But he also threw some dimes and helped his pass catchers have impressive fantasy days.

Goff completed 26 of 36 passes for 246 yards and 2 TDs. He also added 46 yards on 4 rush attempts. This was the 2nd straight game where Goff had 3 or more rush attempts.

It's been better than expected for Goff and the Lions so far. But he remains an option only in 2-QB leagues.
Week 1
In terms of actual QB play, Goff didn’t play well at all. But he was amazing for fantasy once this game got out of hand. During the last 20 minutes of the contest, he threw a pair of TD passes while piling up yardage while the 49ers seemed mentally checked out after racing to a 38-10 lead. Despite the great stats, Goff did most of his damage throwing to his RBs and TE T.J. Hockenson, as the trio put up over 200 yards with a pair of scores. There was very little production by the WRs.

Even though all starting QBs are viable options in superflex or 2-QB leagues, the fact that Goff had very little going on with his WRs is troubling. At the end of the day, a fantasy QB will only go so far when primarily throwing to RBs and the TE, so there’ll be many low-floor weeks for Goff. However, the defense may be so bad that they find themselves in hurry-up mode in many of their games. And ultimately, fantasy points are all the same, even when they occur in garbage time.

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • Goff has apparently gotten worse as a deep passer. He threw a career-low 7.5% of his attempts into that range (20+ yards downfield) in 2020, according to Pro Football Focus. Even so, Goff posted:
    • His worst deep-passing grade to date
    • His worst adjusted completion rate deep since his rookie campaign
    • His 2nd-worst deep-ball passer rating, ahead of only his 2019 mark
  • Among 41 QBs with 15+ deep attempts last year, Goff ranked 31st in adjusted completion rate, 32nd in passer rating and 35th in passing grade.
  • Goff has fared much better in the intermediate range (10-19 yards downfield). He ranked 16th in passing grade to that level in 2020, 9th in 2019, 12th in 2018 and 24th in 2017.
  • Success in the deeper ranges matter because they beef up the QB’s fantasy scoring. Goff has topped 20 fantasy points per game twice in his career: the 2 seasons in which he topped 90.0 in PFF deep-passing grade and 95.0 in passer rating on deep balls.
  • Those 2 seasons also found the largest percentage of Goff’s attempts flying to the deep range: 11.5% and 11.2%. Each of those beat his 2020 deep share by at least 3.7 percentage points.
  • Goff leaves a Rams offense with Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp as the lead WRs -- plus Brandin Cooks and Sammy Watkins in previous seasons -- for a Lions offense with a shrug emoji currently topping the WR depth chart.
  • Detroit let Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones and Danny Amendola walk this offseason. The Lions signed Tyrell Williams and Breshad Perriman in free agency and drafted Amon-Ra St. Brown in Round 4.
  • Quintez Cephus is the top returning producer at the position, with his 35 targets and 20-349-2 receiving line in 2020.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Goff seemed to be coming along a couple of years ago, which is why the Rams gave him a then-record extension in September 2019. Less than 2 years later, they paid Detroit a 1st-round pick to take on his contract, in exchange for a 33-year-old Matthew Stafford. If Goff has any real-life rebound potential or fantasy appeal, we’ll need to see it before buying in. An unexciting player lands in what looks like 1 of the league’s worst offensive situations -- especially at wideout. Pass in all formats.

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

NFL Network's Ian Rapoport is told that there will be an "open competition" this offseason between Rams QBs Jared Goff and John Wolford. Goff has been far too inconsistent from game to game in 4 seasons under Sean McVay -- but it'd frankly be a major surprise if he lost a battle to Wolford, a former undrafted free agent who didn't even complete 60% of his passes at Wake Forest. The takeaway here, though, is that Goff is on thin ice in Los Angeles. We'll see if the Rams add any additional competition this offseason.

View all Jared Goff Shark Bites »

Rams QB Jared Goff (thumb) was a full-go in Tuesday's practice, while QB John Wolford (stinger) was sidelined. HC Sean McVay wouldn't say who will start vs. the Packers on Saturday, but it's seemingly trending toward Goff. We'll continue to monitor the situation.

View all Jared Goff Shark Bites »

Rams QB Jared Goff (thumb) is active for today's game against the Seahawks. "No word yet on if he's starting or if he's the emergency QB," NFL Network's Ian Rapoport tweeted. We'll see whether Goff's actually starting this game or if it's John Wolford. You shouldn't be using him in fantasy either way.

View all Jared Goff Shark Bites »

Rams QB John Wolford "took the majority of snaps" in practice this week and is "prepared to start," according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. Jared Goff reportedly threw well this week despite his injured thumb and is "pushing to play." HC Sean McVay has yet to decide which guy will start, per Rapoport. We'll see about this situation on Saturday.

View all Jared Goff Shark Bites »

Rams QB Jared Goff (thumb) is listed as questionable for Saturday's Wild Card game vs. the Seahawks after a limited week of practice. HC Sean McVay has been non-committal on Goff's status, but The Athletic's Jourdan Rodrigue notes that Goff had "good velocity" on short- and medium-range passes on Thursday. Goff said afterward that he's "progressing well." It seems like he has a legitimate chance to start this weekend. We'll find out for sure around 3 pm ET on Saturday.

View all Jared Goff Shark Bites »

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