What You Need to Know:

• Goff has apparently gotten worse as a deep passer. He threw a career-low 7.5% of his attempts into that range (20+ yards downfield) in 2020, according to Pro Football Focus. Even so, Goff posted:
  • His worst deep-passing grade to date
  • His worst adjusted completion rate deep since his rookie campaign
  • His 2nd-worst deep-ball passer rating, ahead of only his 2019 mark
• Among 41 QBs with 15+ deep attempts last year, Goff ranked 31st in adjusted completion rate, 32nd in passer rating and 35th in passing grade.
• Goff has fared much better in the intermediate range (10-19 yards downfield). He ranked 16th in passing grade to that level in 2020, 9th in 2019, 12th in 2018 and 24th in 2017.
• Success in the deeper ranges matter because they beef up the QB’s fantasy scoring. Goff has topped 20 fantasy points per game twice in his career: the 2 seasons in which he topped 90.0 in PFF deep-passing grade and 95.0 in passer rating on deep balls.
• Those 2 seasons also found the largest percentage of Goff’s attempts flying to the deep range: 11.5% and 11.2%. Each of those beat his 2020 deep share by at least 3.7 percentage points.
• Goff leaves a Rams offense with Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp as the lead WRs -- plus Brandin Cooks and Sammy Watkins in previous seasons -- for a Lions offense with a shrug emoji currently topping the WR depth chart.
• Detroit let Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones and Danny Amendola walk this offseason. The Lions signed Tyrell Williams and Breshad Perriman in free agency and drafted Amon-Ra St. Brown in Round 4.
• Quintez Cephus is the top returning producer at the position, with his 35 targets and 20-349-2 receiving line in 2020.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Goff seemed to be coming along a couple of years ago, which is why the Rams gave him a then-record extension in September 2019. Less than 2 years later, they paid Detroit a 1st-round pick to take on his contract, in exchange for a 33-year-old Matthew Stafford. If Goff has any real-life rebound potential or fantasy appeal, we’ll need to see it before buying in. An unexciting player lands in what looks like 1 of the league’s worst offensive situations -- especially at wideout. Pass in all formats.