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Jared Goff - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsJared Goff's Basic Stats

Jared Goff
ADP: 11.10
Bye: 9
Experience: 7 Yr(s)
Age: 28.9
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 217
40 Time: 4.82
SPARQx (Rank): 81.50 (21%)
Burst Score (Rank): 102.30 (13%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.64 (34%)
Throw Velocity (Rank): 58.00 (85%)

Jared Goff's Weekly Outlook

Week 4 Projections
Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
250.8 1.7 0.6 4.2 16.1
Weekly Writeup
Goff's home/road splits have continued this season. He's finished QB5 and QB13 at home the past two weeks but QB20 in Kansas City Week 1. Goff is at Green Bay on Thursday night, where he managed just 224 scoreless yards on 34 passes last year.

Rest Of Way Outlook

Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
265.9 1.7 0.6 3.6 17.8

Jared Goff's 2023 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#14 Quarterback

284.2 Projected Points

ADP Comp/Att P Yds P TD INT Att R Yds Fum
11.10 366.3/555 4255.1 27.9 9.5 28 57.2 2.9

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsJared Goff's Preseason Player Analysis

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Bottom Line

Expectations for Goff were low entering 2022. He not only exceeded them but put together an impressive season.

Detroit added no challenge to his 2023 role and will (eventually) get 2022 first-round WR Jameson Williams back into the lineup. The Lions also added strong receiving RB Jahmyr Gibbs in Round 1 this year.

It’s easier to see some upside after Goff showed it last season. But he’s also going much earlier in this year’s drafts. He’s ultimately OK but doesn’t need to be part of your 2023 fantasy plans.


What We Learned Last Year
  • Goff spearheaded a resurgent Lions’ offense that nearly reached the playoffs and provided good fantasy production. The former No. 1 overall pick finished as the QB10.
  • He logged six top-12 weekly finishes, with eight more among the top 24. He ended just five of 17 weeks outside the top 20.
  • The Lions’ offense was stellar as a whole, ranking eighth in passing yards per game, 13th in pass rate, third in TD:FG ratio, and first in drive success rate.
  • Goff finished sixth among QBs in passing attempts (587) and passer rating (99.3), and fifth in passing TDs (29). He might have had more if the Lions didn’t score so efficiently on the ground.
    • RB Jamaal Williams led the NFL in red-zone rushing attempts (57) and TDs (16).
  • Among 24 QBs who recorded 400+ dropbacks last season, Goff ranked 15th in PFF passing grade, tied for fifth in adjusted completion percentage (77.8%), and tied for fourth in yards per attempt (7.6).

What to Expect in 2023
  • Jamaal Williams has moved on to New Orleans. But Detroit signed RB David Montgomery to a three-year, $18 million contract and drafted Alabama RB Jahmyr Gibbs 12th overall.
  • The Lions didn’t stop at RB when adding to their offense this offseason, though. Second-round pick TE Sam LaPorta gives Goff another weapon on top of WRs Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams. The latter will open the year serving a six-game suspension for violating the NFL’s gambling policy but figures to make an impact upon return.

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Jared Goff, QB DET

5:44pm EDT 9/17/23

Jared Goff tosses three TDs in Week 2

Lions QB Jared Goff capitalized on a plus Week 2 spot at home for the Seahawks, chucking for 323 yards, 3 TDs, and 1 INT. And he did it despite WR Amon-Ra St. Brown coming in and out of the game in the fourth quarter with cramps. Goff's TDs went to WR Josh Reynolds twice and WR Kalif Raymond. Goff has now played two solid games to open the season. He remains a matchup-based fantasy play but draws a plus Week 3 matchup at home for the Falcons. Expect to find him in or near the top 12 of our Week 3 QB Rankings.

View all Jared Goff Shark Bites »

Lions QB Jared Goff is feeling more comfortable in his second season in OC Ben Johnson's offense. "I think we're able to dial in a little bit more into the details and we're able to tweak things a little bit more as opposed to learning a new offense and really learning the basic stuff," Goff said. "We're able to get into the weeds a little bit and it's been fun." Tim Twentyman notes that Goff has been in "complete command" of the offense this offseason. "Watching him operate at minicamp it's clear he's 100 percent dialed into Johnson's scheme," Twentyman adds. Goff's lack of rushing production caps his fantasy upside. But he finished 10th among QBs in fantasy points last season and is capable of another lower-end QB1 season in 2023.

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Lions WR Jameson Williams is one of five players to be suspended for violating the NFL's gambling policy. Williams, along with Lions WR Stanley Berryhill, have been suspended six games. Lions WR Quintez Cephus, Lions S C.J. Moore, and Commanders DE Shaka Toney are suspended indefinitely. We'll see if Williams appeals this ruling, but fantasy drafters should work under the assumption that he'll miss the first six games of the 2023 season. Williams, of course, appeared in just six games as a rookie last year after tearing an ACL in January of 2022. This suspension will make him tough to roster in standard redraft fantasy leagues and just a late-round option in best ball. Williams' absence leaves Amon-Ra St. Brown, Marvin Jones, Josh Reynolds, and Kalif Raymond as Detroit's top 4 WRs. Jones and Reynolds pick up a bit more fantasy appeal with this news.

Update: The Lions released WR Quintez Cephus and S C.J. Moore.

View all Jameson Williams Shark Bites »

Lions OC Ben Johnson is passing on HC opportunities elsewhere to stick with Detroit for 2023, according to multiple reports. Johnson elected to skip an in-person interview with the Panthers this week, after already talking with the franchise by teleconference. Johnson was viewed as the favorite for the Carolina job and has also interviewed with the Colts and Texans. He instead sticks with an offense that jumped from 25th in scoring and 22nd in yards in 2021 to 5th and 4th, respectively, this season. Detroit also leaped from 29th in Football Outsiders' offensive DVOA to 5th. Johnson's continued presence is undoubtedly good news for QB Jared Goff and other key Lions offensive pieces.

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According to Dave Burkett of the Detroit Free Press, Lions HC Dan Campbell "all but confirmed" Monday that QB Jared Goff will remain the starter in 2023. "He's really a perfect fit for what we do and what we ask," Campbell said. The Rams, of course, paid Detroit draft picks (including 2 first-rounders) to swap Matthew Stafford for Goff 2 offseasons ago. Goff didn't do anything impressive across 14 games in his 1st year with the Lions. But he finished this season throwing 324 consecutive passes without an INT. Goff also finished 15th among QBs in fantasy points per game (depending on your format). He has 2 more years on his contract, though each comes with salaries of more than $30 million vs. dead-cap totals of $10 million and then $5 million if he were to get cut, according to Spotrac. Detroit also holds the 6th overall pick in the upcoming NFL Draft, thanks to the Rams -- along with their own selection at #18. So although Goff looks most likely to open next season at the helm, it's worth noting that Campbell stopped short of actually confirming that the 2023 job belongs to Goff.

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Dynasty Overview View QB Dynasty Rankings »

Jared Goff, QB DET
Dynasty MVP 226.8
Position Rank #22 QB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
751
1,209
1,883
Dynasty Write-up
Goff, 28, looked like a bridge option for the rebuilding Lions. But he wound up making great strides under first-year OC Ben Johnson, putting the former Ram in line to start potentially beyond 2023. A full plate of weapons -- and an excellent staff -- provide the support to sustain his short-term stock.
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