Justin Fields - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Fields retains modest value in dynasty because he’s an instant lineup option if he ever starts another game. And he’s fine as a high-ceiling QB3 in best ball. But he'll need to win the starting job away from Russell Wilson this summer.

What We Learned Last Year

• Fields showed some passing improvement in his third season … but not enough.
• His 67.2 Pro Football Focus passing grade marked a significant improvement vs. 2022 but still ranked just 25th among QBs with 100+ dropbacks – behind Kenny Pickett, among others.
• A career-low average target depth likely helped produce a career-high adjusted completion rate. That also ranked 25th at the position (just ahead of Matthew Stafford and C.J. Stroud, to be fair).
• Fields remained a stellar runner. Even at 1.8 fewer yards per carry and 25.7 fewer per game than the year before, Fields finished second among QBs in rushing yards – despite missing four games and half of a fifth.

What to Expect in 2024

• His stats don’t matter all that much, because the events of this offseason tell us a lot about what we should expect from Fields in 2024: not much.
• It was one thing for Chicago to quit on him in favor of a QB (Caleb Williams) near-universally viewed as a significant upgrade.
  • But the rest of the league basically said “no thanks” as well. The Bears got only a 2025 conditional sixth-round pick. (Can become a fourth based on playing time.)
  • You can say what you want about how Chicago mishandled the timing or tried to help Fields by sending him to the team he wanted. If any team were hopeful for Fields’ future or viewed him as a potential 2024 starter, he would have garnered more market interest.
• If Fields does make it onto the field – by Russell Wilson injury or otherwise – he’ll remain a strong fantasy bet simply by virtue of his rushing.