Justin Fields's 2022 Projections & Outlook
294.4 Projected Points
DS 3D Projections
What You Need to Know:
- The Bears landed Fields at 11th overall in the 2021 draft. He was the 4th QB selected.
- Limited by former HC Matt Nagy’s fascination with Andy Dalton and rib, ankle and hand injuries, Fields went on to start only 10 games. He also missed 1 game on the COVID list.
- The rookie ranked top-10 in fantasy scoring 4 times, with 3 such finishes coming over his final 5 games.
- His rushing production was key. Fields totaled 72-420-2, highlighted by games with 103 and 74 yards.
- Playing behind a bad O-line, Fields’ passing was never consistent.
- He ranked 29th among 33 qualifiers in on-target rate. Note: He dealt with the 3rd-highest drop rate in the sample.
- Among 33 QBs with 250+ dropbacks, Fields ranked 21st in YPA, 27th in PFF passing grade and 33rd in adjusted completion rate.
- He did push the ball down field, ranking 2nd behind Russell Wilson in average depth of target.
- Per USA Today’s Doug Farrar, Fields had the NFL’s highest passer rating (138.5) on designed rollouts. They were called on only 7% of his passes, though. Look for that number to grow in 2022 under a new staff.
- The Bears have 213 vacated targets, with the biggest chunk coming from new Ram Allen Robinson.
- Chicago failed to upgrade Field’s supporting cast. Byron Pringle, Equanimeous St. Brown and rookie speedster Velus Jones are the primary candidates for snaps behind Darnell Mooney.
- This O-line doesn’t look much better. The play of OT Teven Jenkins will be key; the 2nd-year Round 2 pick played only 6 games following back surgery.
- New OC Luke Getsy arrives after spending 3 seasons as Green Bay’s QBs coach. He’s never called plays at the NFL level.
- He’s spoken highly of Fields. From early May: "I've been super impressed with him, I really have," Getsy said. "There's no one in the building that works harder than him. There's no one that cares more than him. We're off to a great start. He's really accepted this challenge. We're asking a lot of him to learn a lot of new things. He's been a pleasure to work with.”
- HC Matt Eberflus talked up Fields’ deep ball in June, indicating that it’ll remain a key aspect of the offense.
- The 2nd-year QB has reportedly quickened his release when passing and improved at throwing on the move. "The Bears are excited for offensive coordinator Luke Getsy's system, which should give Fields more space to operate," Jeremy Fowler writes.
Draft Sharks Bottom Line:
While there’s some refining to be done, we love Fields as an uber-talented passer.
His rushing upside is clear. And an upgraded coaching staff helps boost the case for a 2022 breakout.
However, a lack of playmakers makes it tough to place Fields much higher than the middle of QB2 range. Like so many QBs around him, the 2nd-year man projects as a matchup-based spot-starter.