What You Need to Know:

• Barkley tore the ACL in his right knee in Week 2 last season. He also sustained a partial meniscus tear and MCL strain. The largest impact of the latter 2 details appears to have been delaying the surgery date a little to allow swelling to subside.
• Although all 3 ailments are reportedly healing well, with no setbacks, ESPN’s Jordan Raanan reported in late May: “The idea is to bring Barkley along slowly to make sure he’s healthy for the duration of the 17-game season, and hopefully a postseason. Having Barkley, 24, return to his rookie season form as well as the same usage in the first few weeks of the 2021 season was never realistic.”
  • We’ll see this summer whether that plan came from the team or is a reporter’s projection.
• The reason we all care so much, of course, is because Barkley was a beast in his lone full healthy season so far.
  • He led all RBs in PPR points as a 2018 rookie, trailing only Todd Gurley in points per game.
  • Barkley ranked 3rd among RBs in targets (121), 2nd in catches (91) and 4th in receiving yards (721).
  • He checked in 10th in yards after contact per attempt among 62 RBs with 60+ carries and finished 9th in Pro Football Focus’ elusive rating.
• A high-ankle sprain interrupted his sophomore campaign, but Barkley still ranked 7th in PPR points per game in 2019. That jumps to 5th if you remove his injury game at Tampa.
  • Barkley tied for 13th in yards after contact per attempt in 2019 and ranked 13th in elusive rating.
  • He might have been on his way to something bigger.
• Barkley racked up 139 and 135 total yards in the first 2 games that season, before the Week 3 injury. He then averaged just 3.2 yards per rush and 7.3 per catch over the 7 games following his return. Barkley then tallied 143, 279 and 117 total yards in the final 3 games. Those 3 combined with the first 2 games produce 6.3 yards per rush and 10.0 yards per reception. (To be fair, that’s a pair of small samples. And there’s no way to know how much and how long the high-ankle sprain affected him.)
• We don’t have many recent high-volume RBs with ACL returns to help set our expectations.
  • Dalvin Cook came off a 2017 tear to average just 12.1 carries over 11 games in 2018, with Latavius Murray averaging 8.8.
  • Jamaal Charles didn’t do much over 3 seasons following his 2015 tear, but that was his 2nd. He followed his 2011 tear with an RB9 PPR season that found him playing 16 games and averaging 17.8 carries per outing.
  • Todd Gurley saw his 2015 rookie season start 3 games late because of an ACL tear in his final college campaign, but he posted strong production in a bad Rams offense once he returned.
  • Knowshon Moreno and Rashard Mendenhall each missed 8+ games and lost 0.5 off their per-carry averages the season after their 2011 tears.
  • Adrian Peterson, of course, rebounded from his 2011 tear to deliver a magical 2012, including a career-high 2,097 yards.
• The mixed bag of historical results says we should keep watching Barkley’s return closely.
• He should return to a RB-friendly offense. Giants OC Jason Garrett has spent 14 seasons as an NFL OC or HC. Those offenses have averaged just a 57.7%, with only 2 reaching 60% pass. Last year’s Giants sat right in the middle of the league in run-pass split, despite going 4-12 and losing their star RB in Week 2.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

A healthy Saquon Barkley sits on the top shelf of RBs in the NFL (and fantasy). Just how close to full health he is, though, and how much early-season use he’ll get will bear watching as we move through summer. At this point, it seems wise to expect lighter usage at least early in the season.

That adds risk to Barkley as an early 1st-round pick. It helps his case, though, that just about any early RB carries some risk. And patience with Barkley could unlock his extreme upside.