Saquon Barkley - Fantasy Points Outlook

What You Need to Know:

• “This is the healthiest that Barkley has been entering an offseason maybe since his rookie year.” That’s the word from NJ.com’s Zack Rosenblatt.
• Barkley suffered a high-ankle sprain in Week 3 of his 2nd season (2019). He likely didn’t get back to full strength at any point that season.
• He tore his right ACL in Week 2 of 2020. That cost Barkley the rest of that season and kept him short of full strength to open 2021.
• That was obvious in his usage and his efficiency. Barkley averaged just 12.5 carries and 4.4 targets per game in 2021, ranking 17th in opportunities per game. Over his 1st 2 seasons, though, Barkley averaged 16.5 carries and 6.7 targets per contest. Those 23.2 opportunities per game would have ranked 4th last season.
• Barkley’s 3.7 yards per rush in 2021 fell way short of his rates in each of his 1st 2 years. He also posted significantly lower numbers in Pro Football Focus’ yards after contact per attempt, missed tackles forced, yards per route run, breakaway percentage and elusive rating.
• Beyond his health questions, the Giants’ O-line didn’t help. The team did improve slightly in PFF run-blocking grade vs. 2020, though. The Giants climbed from 23rd to 21st in that category. They also ranked just 22nd in that category in 2019. And even though they finished higher (16th) in 2018, the team’s run-blocking grade came in lower that season than it did last year.
• Football Outsiders ranked the Giants 31st in adjusted line yards last year, a measure of the per-carry yardage a team’s blocking accounts for. The blocking can basically only improve from there.
• The Giants spent the 7th overall pick on OT Evan Neal. They also signed Mark Glowinski to upgrade 1 of the guard spots and 2 other reserve linemen to improve the depth.
• Rosenblatt reports that the Giants have been running Barkley from WR spots in OTA practices – in addition to his backfield work, of course.
• Barkley has finished each of his 3 seasons (excluding the 1.5 games of 2020) short of 1.0 in average depth of target. His 3 college seasons produced ADOTs of -0.4, 5.6 and 1.1. Among the 66 RBs who garnered 20+ targets in the NFL last season …
  
  • only 18 reached an ADOT of 1.0
  • just 8 reached 2.0
  • only Kyle Juszczyk and Cordarrelle Patterson topped 2.6
• Why does that stuff matter? If an altered receiving role can add depth to Barkley’s targets, it would add upside and value to his targets. And it’s not difficult to gain an advantage on most of the position in that area.
• These are the rest of the RBs currently on the Giants roster:
  
  • Matt Breida
  • Gary Brightwell
  • Jashaun Corbin
  • Sandro Platzgummer
  • Antonio Williams
• Breida has seen his carries and targets decline for 3 straight seasons. Each of those years found his team dumping him afterward. The rest of that group has 13 total NFL carries and 2 targets. Thirteen of those opportunities came from Williams in a single 2020 game with the Bills.
• Devontae Booker garnered 34.6% of Giants carries and 7.6% of targets last season, compared with 38.7% and 9.6%, respectively, for Barkley. Booker did not re-sign with the Giants after the season and remains on the open market as of this writing.
• Barkley heads into the final year of his rookie contract this fall.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

We all know about Barkley entering the league as an elite prospect (drafted 2nd overall) and leading the position in fantasy points as a rookie. It’s just gotten easy to overlook those facts because of 3 straight injury-inhibited campaigns. Barkley is finally healthy, though, and his rough stretch has fantasy drafters apprehensive. As of this writing, Barkley’s Underdog ADP still sits early in Round 3, at RB13. FFPC best-ball drafting has him at about the same spot, 14th among RBs. Interestingly, though, early Footballguys Players Championship drafts have bumped him a little – to RB11, in the middle of Round 2. The difference, that’s a lineup-setting format. Don’t be surprised if Barkley keeps getting nudged up the board as we get closer to the season. We’re ready to chase him all the way through Round 2, though. At full strength, Barkley presents as high a fantasy ceiling as anyone at the position (maybe excluding Christian McCaffrey).