What You Need to Know:

• Lance never passed QB Jimmy Garoppolo on the depth chart last year.
• But he did start 2 games when Garoppolo was hurt: Week 5 vs. the Cardinals and Week 17 vs. the Texans.
  • Lance threw for just 192 scoreless yards on 15-of-29 passing vs. Arizona. But he ran 16 times for 89 yards. He finished 20th among QBs in fantasy points on the week.
  • Against Houston, Lance completed 16 of 23 passes for 249 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT. He added 31 yards on 8 carries and finished QB10.
• Lance is slated to take over as San Francisco’s starter this season, with Garoppolo expected to be traded or released.
• The 49ers made a big move from #12 to #3 to grab Lance in the 2021 NFL Draft.
• Lance spent just 1 season as a starting QB in high school – and then just 1 full season as North Dakota State’s starter.
• He was awesome in that 1 college season, posting a 66.9% completion rate, 9.7 yards per attempt and 28 TDs vs. 0 INTs.
• More importantly for his fantasy upside, Lance ran for 1,100 yards and 14 TDs that year.
• He goes 6’4, 224 pounds and looks like a cross between Josh Allen and Taysom Hill as a runner.
• Lance gets to play in a Kyle Shanahan offense that has regularly produced efficient passing games. The 49ers have ranked top 14 in yards per pass attempt in all 5 seasons under Shanahan, including 3 top-9 finishes and a pair of 2nd-place finishes. And that’s with these QBs: Jimmy Garoppolo, C.J. Beathard, Brian Hoyer and Nick Mullens.
• Shanahan also has experience with a young, mobile QB, serving as Washington’s OC for Robert Griffin’s first 2 seasons. RG3 averaged 7.4 carries for 46.6 yards and .25 TDs per game across those 2 years, finishing QB4 and QB15 in fantasy points per game.
• Lance has a strong trio of pass catchers at his disposal in WR Deebo Samuel, WR Brandon Aiyuk and TE George Kittle.
  • Those guys ranked 1st, 12th and 13th league-wide in yards after catch per reception.
• Lance reportedly had a strong spring.
  • NFL Network’s Peter Schrager reported in June that 49ers players told him that Lance was "awesome this offseason." Added Schrager, "Everything I'm hearing out of the Bay Area is that there has been major strides heading into year number two. Jimmy [Garoppolo]'s not there, and he's kind of been off the radar. Trey Lance is [there]. I'm getting more and more of a feeling this is Trey Lance's team, and he's ready to go."
• If there was any remaining doubt as to who will be the 49ers' starting QB this season, HC Kyle Shanahan put that to rest on Tuesday. "We have moved on to Trey Lance," Shanahan said. "This is Trey's team."

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Lance made just 2 starts as a rookie last year, finishing QB20 and then QB10. He was OK as a passer but boosted his fantasy value with 24 carries for 120 yards.

He’s a safe bet for big rushing numbers this season. And there’s passing upside in a Kyle Shanahan offense with a strong trio of pass catchers in WR Deebo Samuel, WR Brandon Aiyuk and TE George Kittle.

Lance should carry spot-start fantasy value thanks to the rushing alone. And if everything clicks, there’s a top-5 ceiling.