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Trey Lance - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Trey Lance
SF

QB SF

#15 Quarterback

298 Projected Points

ADP: Not Available
Bye: 6
Experience: 0 Yr(s)
Age: N/A
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 226
40 Time: Not Available

2021 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#15 Quarterback

298 Projected Points

ADP Comp/Att P Yds P TD INT Att R Yds Fum
Not Available 263/424 3095 18 9 510

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

3d Projection

High Floor

223.5

DS Projection

298

Consensus

38 other sites
0

High Ceiling

381.4

Ceiling Likelihood

High
How likely they will reach their ceiling projection

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • Lance spent just 1 season as a starting QB in high school and started for just 1 full season at North Dakota State.
  • That 2019 season was spectacular: 2,786 passing yards, 28 TDs and 0 INTs on a 66.9% completion rate and 9.7 yards per attempt, plus 1,100 rushing yards and 14 scores. North Dakota State went 16-0 and won the FCS national title.
  • He played just 1 exhibition game last year after the Missouri Valley Conference postponed its season until the spring due to COVID. Lance went 15-of-30 for 149 yards, 2 TDs and his 1st career INT in that one. He also ran for 143 and 2 scores, though, on 15 attempts.
  • So Lance arrives to the NFL with just 17 career starts at the FCS level.
  • That didn’t stop the 49ers from selecting Lance with the 3rd overall pick of this year’s draft -- after making a big trade to move up from the 12th pick.
  • What did they see in Lance? A rare combination of size, arm talent, athleticism and football IQ.
    • Lance goes 6’4 and 224 pounds.
    • We didn’t get athletic testing numbers on him, but turn on the tape and it’s clear that he’s a plus athlete.
    • Lance set his own protections and made full-field reads at North Dakota State. And he just turned 21 in May.
    • “His physical traits, poise and intelligence are a rare package for his age and meager experience,” The Athletic’s Dane Brugler wrote in his scouting report on Lance.
    • Pro Football Focus: “In an utterly loaded class, Lance may have more pure physical talent than all of these QBs.”
  • QB Jimmy Garoppolo remains on the 49ers’ roster as of mid-June. But expect to see Lance on the field sooner than later.
    • 14 QBs were selected with a top-5 pick between 2011 and 2020. 9 of them were named Week 1 starters, and 11 of them started at least 12 games as rookies.
  • Lance will find himself in a nice situation under HC Kyle Shanahan and with plenty of weapons.
    • The 49ers have ranked top 15 in passing yards and yards per pass attempt in all 4 seasons with Shanahan at the helm. That’s despite a rotating cast at QB of Garoppolo, Nick Mullens, C.J. Beathard and Brian Hoyer.
    • Shanahan also has experience with a dual-threat QB. He was OC in Washington for QB Robert Griffin’s first 2 seasons. RG3 finished 7th among QBs in fantasy points as a rookie and 13th in points per game the following year.
    • Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel are talented, ascending WRs. George Kittle remains 1 of the top TEs in the league. All 3 guys are excellent after the catch, which will make Lance’s job easier.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

We’ll see how Lance fares in training camp and preseason action, but bet on him taking over as the 49ers’ starter early in the season -- potentially by Week 1.

Whenever the rookie hits the field, he’ll boast big fantasy upside thanks to the combination of his rushing ability, HC Kyle Shanahan’s scheme and a talented pass-catching trio of Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle.

 

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Trey Lance completed an improbable rise to the NFL by landing with the 49ers at Pick #3 in the 2021 NFL Draft. Lance spent just 1 season as a starting QB in high school and then chose North Dakota State at the FCS level after being lightly recruited. He followed NFL backup Easton Stick there and balled out in his lone starting campaign. Lance completed 66.9% of his throws at 9.7 yards per attempt with 28 TDs and nary an INT. He led that Bison team to a 16-0 record and the FCS national title, adding 1,100 yards and 14 TDs on the ground. Lance boasts the size and willingness to be Josh Allen-like as a goal-line rusher. Also like Allen, he sports a big throwing arm. Lance started just 17 college games and might be asked to sit for a year before getting his starting shot in the pros. (Even Jimmy Kepouros, an NDSU WR, calls Lance “really raw.”) But the rushing ability alone gives Lance immediate fantasy upside whenever he does hit the field. This is a nice landing spot with a bright offensive mind in HC Kyle Shanahan and a nice group of pass-catchers in George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel. We’ll see whether the Niners hang on to QB Jimmy Garoppolo -- and if he can hang on to the starting job for any or all of 2021. Bet on Lance hitting the field at some point this season.

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