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Trey Lance - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsTrey Lance's Basic Stats

Trey Lance
ADP: 9.3
Bye: 9
Experience: 1 Yr(s)
Age: 22.1
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 224
40 Time: 4.69

Trey Lance's 2022 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#13 Quarterback

325.8 Projected Points

ADP Comp/Att P Yds P TD INT Att R Yds Fum
9.3 287.3/456 3511.2 21.4 11.4 144 792 3.5

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsTrey Lance's Preseason Player Analysis

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What You Need to Know:
  • Lance never passed QB Jimmy Garoppolo on the depth chart last year.
  • But he did start 2 games when Garoppolo was hurt: Week 5 vs. the Cardinals and Week 17 vs. the Texans.
    • Lance threw for just 192 scoreless yards on 15-of-29 passing vs. Arizona. But he ran 16 times for 89 yards. He finished 20th among QBs in fantasy points on the week.
    • Against Houston, Lance completed 16 of 23 passes for 249 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT. He added 31 yards on 8 carries and finished QB10.
  • Lance is slated to take over as San Francisco’s starter this season, with Garoppolo expected to be traded or released.
  • The 49ers made a big move from #12 to #3 to grab Lance in the 2021 NFL Draft.
  • Lance spent just 1 season as a starting QB in high school – and then just 1 full season as North Dakota State’s starter.
  • He was awesome in that 1 college season, posting a 66.9% completion rate, 9.7 yards per attempt and 28 TDs vs. 0 INTs.
  • More importantly for his fantasy upside, Lance ran for 1,100 yards and 14 TDs that year.
  • He goes 6’4, 224 pounds and looks like a cross between Josh Allen and Taysom Hill as a runner.
  • Lance gets to play in a Kyle Shanahan offense that has regularly produced efficient passing games. The 49ers have ranked top 14 in yards per pass attempt in all 5 seasons under Shanahan, including 3 top-9 finishes and a pair of 2nd-place finishes. And that’s with these QBs: Jimmy Garoppolo, C.J. Beathard, Brian Hoyer and Nick Mullens.
  • Shanahan also has experience with a young, mobile QB, serving as Washington’s OC for Robert Griffin’s first 2 seasons. RG3 averaged 7.4 carries for 46.6 yards and .25 TDs per game across those 2 years, finishing QB4 and QB15 in fantasy points per game.
  • Lance has a strong trio of pass catchers at his disposal in WR Deebo Samuel, WR Brandon Aiyuk and TE George Kittle.
    • Those guys ranked 1st, 12th and 13th league-wide in yards after catch per reception.
  • Lance reportedly had a strong spring.
    • NFL Network’s Peter Schrager reported in June that 49ers players told him that Lance was "awesome this offseason." Added Schrager, "Everything I'm hearing out of the Bay Area is that there has been major strides heading into year number two. Jimmy [Garoppolo]'s not there, and he's kind of been off the radar. Trey Lance is [there]. I'm getting more and more of a feeling this is Trey Lance's team, and he's ready to go."
Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Lance made just 2 starts as a rookie last year, finishing QB20 and then QB10. He was OK as a passer but boosted his fantasy value with 24 carries for 120 yards.

He’s a safe bet for big rushing numbers this season. And there’s passing upside in a Kyle Shanahan offense with a strong trio of pass catchers in WR Deebo Samuel, WR Brandon Aiyuk and TE George Kittle.

Lance should carry spot-start fantasy value thanks to the rushing alone. And if everything clicks, there’s a top-5 ceiling.

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Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Trey Lance, QB SF

8:24am EDT 6/9/22

Lance "awesome this offseason"

NFL Network's Peter Schrager is hearing from 49ers players that QB Trey Lance has been "awesome this offseason." Reports on Lance's progress were lukewarm at best early this offseason, but it sounds like he's building momentum. "Everything I'm hearing out of the Bay Area is that there has been major strides heading into year number two. Jimmy [Garoppolo]'s not there, and he's kind of been off the radar. Trey Lance is [there]. I'm getting more and more of a feeling this is Trey Lance's team, and he's ready to go." With elite rushing ability and a strong group of pass-catchers in Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle, Lance carries a lofty fantasy ceiling in 2022.

View all Trey Lance Shark Bites »

Niners TE George Kittle said this week that QB Trey Lance appears to be taking over the offense. “I definitely think he’s taken ownership, for sure,” Kittle said, via Eric Branch of the San Francisco Chronicle. “You can kind of tell that in meetings, he’ll talk. He’s assuming responsibility. … He’s letting his personality show a little bit. And he’s going to be out there slinging the rock around.” Jimmy Garoppolo remains on the San Francisco roster, but we'll be surprised if Lance isn't the Week 1 starter. The current uncertainty is keeping Lance outside the top 12 at QB in best-ball drafting.

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Matt Barrows of The Athletic describes the “blockers in front of [Trey] Lance” as “question marks.” The real issue is along the interior, where nobody’s locked into a starting spot. Of note: C Alex Mack, 36, is questionable to return for another season. And reliable RG Laken Tomlinson signed with the Jets in free agency. The 49ers used a mid-round pick on UTSA OT/OG Spencer Burford, but he’s unlikely to make a year 1 impact. Lance remains a fringe QB1 with a wide range of outcomes.

View all Trey Lance Shark Bites »

ESPN's Jeremy Fowler hears that the 49ers are still planning to start QB Trey Lance this season. QB Jimmy Garoppolo remains of the roster as of now, at least in part because he's still recovering from shoulder surgery. "I'm told that [Lance has] gotten indications, at least informal indications from the team, that he'll be the guy next year. He's set to be that," Fowler said. "Now, whether that means that they would still keep Garoppolo and that could change the dynamic, possibly. But right now, Lance is going to be the starter." We're comfortable drafting as if Lance will be under center for San Francisco this year. And his ADP has actually sunk to QB13 recently, making him a nice value.

View all Trey Lance Shark Bites »

49ers QB Trey Lance "was probably further behind than people realized," according to ESPN's Adam Schefter. "Trey Lance is greener than people realize, Trey Lance is going to need more work than people realize." Schefter added that QB Jimmy Garoppolo is not a lock to get traded this offseason. "Garoppolo unquestionably is one of the most popular and respected players in your locker room. Players love playing with him. You have him under contract this year at a very friendly $25 million cap number. And if you play with him this year and you lose him after this year, you're going to get a third-round compensatory pick back in return. So are you better playing this season with Jimmy while getting Trey the training he still needs, or are you better trading Garoppolo for a two, a four and a six? What's the better alternative?" We're still expecting Garoppolo to be dealt this offseason and for Lance to be San Francisco's 2022 starter. But this is a reminder that that's not guaranteed -- and that there will likely be ups and downs for Lance if he does take over.

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Dynasty Overview View QB Dynasty Rankings »

Trey Lance, QB SF
Dynasty MVP 329.7
Position Rank #10 QB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
1,039
1,775
2,880
Dynasty Write-up
Lance made only 2 starts as a rookie. It’s slightly worrisome, but we knew he was extremely raw after sitting out the 2020 season. We like the nucleus in San Francisco with Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle and Deebo Samuel, although Deebo enters a contract year in ’22.

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