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T.Y. Hilton - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

T.Y. Hilton
IND

WR IND

#49 Wide Receiver

106 Projected Points

ADP: 10.2
Bye: 14
Experience: 9 Yr(s)
Age: 31
Height: 5'9"
Weight: 183
40 Time: 4.37

2021 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#49 Wide Receiver

106 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
10.2 56 760 5 1

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

3d Projection

High Floor

86.9

DS Projection

106

Consensus

38 other sites
141.2

High Ceiling

137.8

Ceiling Likelihood

Medium
How likely they will reach their ceiling projection

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • Hilton posted a 56-762-5 line in 15 games last year, finishing 42nd among WRs in PPR points and 41st in non-PPR.
  • The 50.8 receiving yards per game were the 2nd lowest mark of his 9-year career -- less than a yard better than his 50.1 per game in 2019.
  • Hilton did improve from a career-low 7.4 yards per target in 2019 to 8.2 last year. That latter mark ranked 45th among 87 WRs with 50+ targets.
  • Hilton finished 39th in yards per route run and 28th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade among those 87 WRs.
  • He finished the regular season strong last year, averaging 4.5 catches, 72.5 yards and .8 TDs over his final 6 outings. He was a top 10 WR across fantasy scoring formats during that stretch.
  • But Hilton benefitted from a plush schedule. Five of those final 6 games came against bottom-12 WR defenses.
  • Hilton will turn 32 this November. He’s missed 9 games over the past 3 seasons -- 2 in 2018, 6 in 2019 and 1 last year -- with hamstring, quad, calf and groin injuries.
  • The Colts re-signed him on a 1-year, fully guaranteed, $8 million deal in free agency. It makes Hilton the league’s 14th highest-paid WR in 2021.
  • The Colts return 7 of their top 8 target-getters (including Hilton) from last season, with TE Trey Burton the only notable departure. WR Michael Pittman is a candidate for a year-2 leap, and the Colts will hope to get a healthier season from WR Parris Campbell, who made it through just 1 game last year before a season-ending knee injury.
  • The big change comes at QB, where Carson Wentz replaces Philip Rivers. That’ll be an upgrade if we get 2017-2019 Wentz; a downgrade if it’s 2020 Wentz.
  • The Colts have ranked 27th and 25th in pass rate and 24th and 20th in pass attempts the past 2 seasons. Those teams were quarterbacked by Jacoby Brissett and then Rivers. In 2018 -- Frank Reich’s 1st season as HC and with Andrew Luck under center -- Indy finished 7th in pass rate and 2nd in attempts. We’re projecting the Colts’ 2021 pass rate to settle in between where it was in 2018 and 2019-2020.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Going on 32, Hilton looks like a player in decline. He ranked just outside the top 40 WRs across fantasy scoring formats last year after missing 6 games with multiple injuries in 2019.

The Colts gave him a 1-year, $8 million deal and didn’t make any significant WR additions this offseason, so they’re evidently optimistic that Hilton has 1 more good season left in him. We’re not as optimistic but will keep an eye on Hilton and his rapport with new QB Carson Wentz this summer.

 

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

WR T.Y. Hilton has agreed to a 1-year deal with the Colts. His agency reports that it's a $10 million pact, with $8 million of that guaranteed. That's similar to what JuJu Smith-Schuster got to return to Pittsburgh. Hilton's yards per catch and per target rebounded last year vs. 2019, with the QB upgrade from Jacoby Brissett to Philip Rivers. But he doesn't look like the same big-play threat he was earlier in his career. Staying with the Colts gives Hilton a chance to continue leading the team in targets, but healthier seasons from young wideouts Michael Pittman Jr. and Parris Campbell figure to challenge Hilton's share. The veteran looks fine as a fantasy option in the double-digit rounds of best-ball drafts.

View all T.Y. Hilton Shark Bites »

Colts WR T.Y. Hilton (groin) put in a full week of practice and isn't listed on the final injury report. He'll return for Thursday night's game vs. the Titans. That's a plus matchup, but Hilton is still tough to trust in fantasy lineups after a slow 1st half of the season.

View all T.Y. Hilton Shark Bites »

Colts WR T.Y. Hilton (groin) was listed as a full participant on Tuesday. It was only a walkthrough, but it still looks like Hilton will be back for Thursday night's game against the Titans. Of course, he's averaged just 6.2 targets, 3.3 catches and 40 yards in his 6 full games this season, so he's not a great fantasy play. Hilton's return figures to knock WR Marcus Johnson from the starting lineup.

View all T.Y. Hilton Shark Bites »

Colts WR T.Y. Hilton (groin) is inactive for today’s game against the Ravens. Zach Pascal, Marcus Johnson and Michael Pittman figure to serve as Indy’s top 3 WRs. Pascal is the best bet for targets, but even he’s just a WR4.

View all T.Y. Hilton Shark Bites »

Colts WR T.Y. Hilton (groin) is listed as doubtful for Sunday’s game against the Ravens. He should be on fantasy benches. Zach Pascal, Marcus Johnson and Michael Pittman figure to serve as Indy’s top 3 WRs this weekend.

View all T.Y. Hilton Shark Bites »

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