Chargers might end up resting starters Week 18

If the Bengals beat the Ravens -- and they're currently 7-point favorites -- in the early slate of games on Sunday, the Chargers will clinch the AFC's #5 seed and have nothing to play for vs. the Broncos in the late slate. And it sure sounds like there's a chance that HC Brandon Staley will rest starters in that case. "Once we find out about that game, then we'll make the appropriate decisions moving forward," Staley said Wednesday. The Chargers are notably 2.5-point underdogs right now, suggesting the oddsmakers are at least baking in some chance of starters not playing. We'll continue to keep an eye on the situation, but guys like QB Justin Herbert, RB Austin Ekeler and WRs Keenan Allen and Mike Williams carry elevated risk in Week 18 fantasy lineups.

New Chargers OC Greg Roman told reporters recently that he wants a "balanced" offense. "We want to be able to run it when we want to run it and throw it when we want to throw it," Roman added. "If they present looks that are favorable to run it, then we want to be able to run it at a high level. Every place I’ve been, that’s kind of been the goal, to try to have that complete attack." That jibes with HC John Harbaugh saying at his introductory press conference that he wants to "beef up the run game." Both Harbaugh and Roman have extensive histories of run-leaning offenses. That'd be a big shift for the Chargers, who ranked top-5 in pass attempts in each of QB Justin Herbert's first four seasons. It wouldn't make sense for Roman to deploy a super run-heavy offense with a QB as talented as Herbert. But we're certainly expecting the Chargers to throw less this coming season than they have the last four. Herbert and his pass catchers will need to make up for the loss in volume with improved efficiency.

The Chargers have hired Greg Roman as OC. He joins new HC Jim Harbaugh to lead a coaching staff with a run-heavy background. Roman has spent 10 years as an NFL OC with the 49ers (2011-14), Bills (2015-16), and Ravens (2019-22). Nine of those offenses ranked 28th or lower in pass attempts. All 10 ranked among the top 9 in rush attempts, including seven years inside the top 3. It's important to note the starting QBs for those teams. San Francisco (with Harbaugh as HC) transitioned from Alex Smith to Colin Kaepernick midway through 2012. Tyrod Taylor started for those Buffalo teams. And Lamar Jackson was the guy for Roman's full Baltimore run. Justin Herbert is clearly less of a runner than any of those guys and (arguably?) the best passer of the bunch. We wouldn't bet on the new Chargers going as run-heavy as all those previous offenses, but we have to expect more rushing lean than in the past few seasons. L.A. has finished three straight years with rush rates lower than 40%, ranking among the league's most pass-leaning teams. Roman's QBs have tended to pass efficiently. Smith, Kaepernick, and Taylor all posted better net yards per pass attempt under Roman than without him. And Jackson's hyper-efficient 2019 came in Roman's Baltimore debut. The Chargers have a lot more to sort through this offseason before we'll really know what the offense will look like. For now, though, we're lowering the expectation at least a bit for Chargers passing numbers. That said, Justin Herbert already sits just 10th among QBs in Underdog ADP. Feel free to take shots on him at that level, and know that he still carries upside beyond that.

Chargers QB Justin Herbert's rehab from surgery to his fractured right index finger is expected to take six weeks, according to Prime TV's Kaylee Hartung. HC Brandon Staley told Hartung that there are no long-term concerns for Herbert. The injury shouldn't impact his 2024 offseason. Herbert figures to be playing for a new coaching staff next season, and we'll see if WRs Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are back. Both guys are signed for 2024 but have massive cap hits.

Chargers QB Justin Herbert will miss the rest of the season after fracturing the index finger in his right (throwing) hand, according to multiple reports. That leaves fifth-year QB Easton Stick to pilot the offense over the final four games. Stick has been with the Chargers since they drafted him in Round 5 back in 2019, but he had attempted just one regular season pass before Sunday. Stick went a forgettable 13 of 24 passing for 179 yards after taking over against the Broncos, throwing no TDs or INTs but fumbling twice (losing one). His 2023 preseason also proved unimpressive, including a 60.3% completion rate, 5.2 yards per pass attempt, 1 TD, 2 INTs, and a 9.0% sack rate. The QB situation obviously downgrades everyone on the Chargers' offense. WR Keenan Allen should remain usable. Stick targeted Allen on 37.5% of his attempts against Denver. He threw another 20.8% toward RB Austin Ekeler, the only other Chargers offensive piece you should still consider using. WRs Quentin Johnston and Joshua Palmer and TE Gerald Everett look droppable for other options. Herbert should have plenty of time to recover ahead of the 2024 season.

Chargers QB Justin Herbert is "very likely" to undergo surgery to repair his fractured right index finger on Tuesday, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter. That surgery will determine whether Herbert has a chance to play again this season. HC Brandon Staley said Monday that Herbert's long-term outlook will take precedence over his short-term availability for the 5-8 Chargers. We're not expecting to see Herbert on the field again this season, but we'll update his status when we know more.