Fantasy Football Redraft

Jerry Jeudy Fantasy Outlook

By Jared Smola 8:33am EDT 6/7/23

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Bottom Line

A couple of different injuries masked an impressive 2022 season from Jerry Jeudy. 

His scoring average in 12 healthy games landed him 13th among WRs in PPR points per game and 14th in half-PPR. He also set career highs in yards per target, yards per route run, and Pro Football Focus receiving grade.

The arrival of HC Sean Payton should be a significant upgrade for this Broncos offense. The big question is whether QB Russell Wilson can bounce back from an ugly 2022.

The QB concern is stopping us from going all-in on Jeudy. But he certainly has a shot to turn in a true breakout season in 2023.

What We Learned Last Year

• Injuries cost Jeudy two full games and most of three others last year. He left in the first quarter of Week 2 with a chest injury. Then he suffered a left ankle injury on the first snap of Week 10 that sidelined him for the next two games and limited him to a 38% snap rate in Week 13.
• In 12 healthy games, Jeudy averaged:
  • 7.7 targets
  • 5.2 catches
  • 74.7 yards
  • 0.5 TDs
• His scoring averages in those games would have ranked 13th among WRs in PPR points and 14th in half-PPR.
• In their ten healthy games together, Jeudy out-targeted Courtland Sutton 75 to 71.
• Jeudy also beat Sutton last year in yards per target (9.7 to 7.6), yards per route run (2.18 to 1.55), and Pro Football Focus receiving grade (77.9 to 69.7).
• Here’s where Jeudy ranked in those three metrics among 80 WRs with 50+ targets:
  • Yards per target: 7th
  • Yards per route run: 12th
  • PFF receiving grade: 21st
• He’s now improved his yards per target, yards per route run, and PFF receiving grade across each of his first three NFL seasons.

What to Expect in 2023

• Jeudy will be working in a new offense this season after the Broncos canned HC Nathaniel Hackett and swung a trade for HC Sean Payton. That should be an upgrade after Hackett’s disastrous 2022 showing.
• Payton has spent 18 seasons as an NFL HC or OC (3 with the Giants, 15 with the Saints). 15 of those 18 teams finished top 9 in total yards.
• QB Russell Wilson is the biggest question mark in this offense. He’s coming off career lows in completion rate (60.5%) and Pro Football Focus passing grade and turns 35 in November.
• The Broncos added WR Marvin Mims in the second round of this spring’s draft and signed WR Marquez Callaway, who played for Payton in New Orleans in 2020 and 2021. WR Courtland Sutton returns, and WR Tim Patrick is due back from his August 2022 ACL tear.
• Denver picked up Jeudy’s fifth-year option in May. That keeps him with the Broncos through the 2024 season and makes him a safe bet for a significant role in Payton’s offense.

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