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Russell Wilson - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsRussell Wilson's Basic Stats

Russell Wilson
ADP: 11.9
Bye: 9
Experience: 11 Yr(s)
Age: 34.8
Height: 5'11"
Weight: 215
40 Time: 4.55
SPARQx (Rank): 109.90 (93%)
Burst Score (Rank): 118.50 (82%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.06 (88%)
Throw Velocity (Rank): 56.00 (61%)

Russell Wilson's Weekly Outlook

Week 4 Projections
Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
259.7 1.7 0.6 15.5 18.3
Weekly Writeup
Wilson ranks 8th among QBs in fantasy points through three weeks. Now he gets his best matchup of the season thus far against a Bears defense that hasn't stopped a thing yet this year. Chicago ranks 21st in adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs, despite facing the 12th fewest pass attempts.

Rest Of Way Outlook

Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
227.8 1.4 0.9 15.2 15.5

Russell Wilson's 2023 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#21 Quarterback

248.3 Projected Points

ADP Comp/Att P Yds P TD INT Att R Yds Fum
11.9 310.9/490 3644 22 13.8 55 243.2 4

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsRussell Wilson's Preseason Player Analysis

View QB Fantasy Rankings »
Bottom Line

Wilson was a massive disappointment last year.

Former HC Nathaniel Hackett was a disaster, but Wilson deserves plenty of blame, too. He registered career lows in completion rate and Pro Football Focus passing grade.

There’s bounce-back potential with the arrival of HC Sean Payton, a nice pass-catching corps, and a potentially strong offensive line. But we’re not betting big on it.

The soon-to-be 35-year-old Wilson should only be drafted as a QB2.


What We Learned Last Year
  • Wilson played in 15 of 17 games in his Broncos debut last year, missing Week 7 with what was reported as a partially torn hamstring and Week 15 with a concussion.
  • He averaged just 235 passing yards and 1.1 TDs across his 15 games.
  • Wilson ranked somewhere between 19th and 22nd among QBs in fantasy points per game, depending on your scoring system.
  • He finished as a top-12 fantasy QB in just four of 15 games.
  • He finished QB20 or worse in 9 of 15 games.
  • Wilson’s 60.5% completion rate was a career low. His 7.3 yards per attempt was his second-worst mark among 11 NFL seasons.
  • Wilson ranked 24th among 31 qualifying QBs in both adjusted completion rate (which omits dropped passes, throw aways, spiked balls, and batted passes) and Pro Football Focus passing grade.
  • The PFF passing grade was a career low.
  • That all followed a 2021 campaign – his last in Seattle – that saw Wilson struggle over the second half of the season. He posted a 61.5% completion rate and 7.0 yards per attempt over his final nine games. He ranked 26th among 31 QBs in PFF passing grade during that stretch.
  • Wilson will turn 35 in November.
  • He had arthroscopic surgery on his right knee early this offseason for an issue that had reportedly bothered him for multiple years. Wilson should be back to 100% in plenty of time for Week 1.

What to Expect in 2023
  • The Broncos canned HC Nathaniel Hackett last December. (It’s worth noting that Denver scored 24 and 31 points in two games without Hackett after averaging just 15.5 points in 15 games with Hackett.)
  • Hackett will be replaced by HC Sean Payton, who Denver acquired from New Orleans in exchange for a 2023 first-round pick and a 2024 second-rounder.
  • Payton spent 15 seasons as Saints HC, leading the team to 13 top-10 finishes in total yards and 12 top-10 finishes in points.
  • Twelve of Payton’s 15 Saints teams ranked top-7 in passing yards. Those teams were, of course, quarterbacked by Drew Brees.
  • Brees finished as a top-9 fantasy QB in each of his first 13 seasons with Payton, including seven top-3 finishes.
  • The Broncos return their top 3 targets from last year: WR Courtland Sutton, WR Jerry Jeudy, and TE Greg Dulcich. They also added WR Marvin Mims in the second round of this year’s draft. It’s a nice pass-catching corps.
  • Denver’s offensive line ranked 18th in Pro Football Focus’ pass-blocking grades and ninth in ESPN’s pass block win rate last year.
  • The unit projects to be better in 2023 after the Broncos spent big money to add RT Mike McGlinchey and LG Ben Powers in free agency. LT Garrett Bolles will also be back after missing the final 12 games of last season with a broken leg.

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Russell Wilson, QB DEN

10:25pm EDT 9/10/23

Russell Wilson mediocre in 2023 debut

Broncos QB Russell Wilson played OK in his first game under new HC Sean Payton. He was efficient but conservative, completing 79.4% of his passes at only 5.2 yards per attempt. He didn't turn it over and tossed TDs to WRs Courtland Sutton and Lil'Jordan Humphrey. Wilson spread the ball around to 10 different pass-catchers, with none of them catching more than five balls. He was playing without WR Jerry Jeudy and lost TE Greg Dulcich in-game to a leg injury. We'll see when those guys return, but don't expect to see Wilson close to the top 12 in our Week 2 Rankings in a matchup vs. the Commanders.

View all Russell Wilson Shark Bites »

Broncos QB Russell Wilson is off to a “slow start” in training camp, per team insider Troy Renck. He’s committed multiple turnovers in practice, but HC Sean Payton isn’t deterred. "He’s doing fine," Payton said. “We are in an installation pattern. As we install, sometimes we put a play in, and it doesn’t really match, and we wouldn’t run it if we were playing Denver’s defense. Throughout this training camp and preseason, you will see things we do well and some things we don’t feel as comfortable about. So, you are constantly building that memory bank of what we are seeing and how we are executing it.” Wilson and the Broncos open the season vs. Las Vegas on September 10.

View all Russell Wilson Shark Bites »

"A trimmed down Russell Wilson hinted that we are going to see him move around more this season and use his legs more frequently," NFL Network's James Palmer says. He adds that HC Sean Payton is encouraging it and believes "it's still a strength" for the 34-year-old QB. Wilson posted his fewest (13.1) and third-fewest (18.5) rushing yards per game the past two seasons. Although Palmer's report doesn't specifically speak to Wilson rushing for yardage, pursuing mobility more often should help that area. And any rushing boost would help Wilson's fantasy floor and ceiling. He's going at a low-risk, all-reward level in fantasy football drafts so far. See where Wilson sits in our 2023 QB rankings.

View all Russell Wilson Shark Bites »

Broncos HC Sean Payton fully believes that QB Russell Wilson will bounce back this year. “He’s still got gas in the tank," Payton said, blaming Denver's ugly 2022 season on the previous regime. “There’s so much dirt around that. There’s 20 dirty hands, for what was allowed, tolerated in the fricking training rooms, the meeting rooms. The offense. I don’t know [former HC Nathaniel] Hackett. A lot of people had dirt on their hands. It wasn’t just Russell. He didn’t just flip. He still has it. This B.S. that he hit a wall? Shoot, they couldn’t get a play in. They were 29th in the league in pre-snap penalties on both sides of the ball.” On top of what should be a much-improved coaching staff, the Broncos also bolstered their offensive line with the additions of Mike McGlinchey and Ben Powers. And the pass-catching corps remains strong. In short, all the pieces are in place for a Wilson bounce back.

View all Russell Wilson Shark Bites »

Broncos QB Russell Wilson is coming off a tough 2022. He averaged just 235 passing yards and 1.1 TDs across his 15 games and posted career lows in completion rate, PFF passing grade, and his 7.3 yards per attempt was his second-worst mark among 11 NFL seasons. But don’t forget about how much the Broncos improved this offseason. The team spent big money on RT Mike McGlinchey and LG Ben Powers in free agency and brought in former Saints HC Sean Payton to help right the ship. Plus, fantasy managers did see a slight bounce back from Wilson after the team fired HC Nathaniel Hackett, averaging 24.9 fantasy points per game between Week 17-18. We feel that Wilson can be a quality QB2 in lineups this season. See where he comes out in our current QB rankings.

View all Russell Wilson Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View QB Dynasty Rankings »

Russell Wilson, QB DEN
Dynasty MVP 171.6
Position Rank #36 QB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
577
898
1,424
Dynasty Write-up
Wilson signed a contract with $161 million in total guarantees…then put together the worst season of his career. By far. Firing HC Nathaniel Hackett (in December) was the right move. Now, it’s up to HC Sean Payton to steer Wilson, 34, back on track. WRs Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy at least remain under contract for 2023. Deep threat Marvin Mims arrived in the draft. And Greg Dulcich looks like a hit at TE.
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