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Russell Wilson - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsRussell Wilson's Basic Stats

Russell Wilson
ADP: 17.4
Bye: 9
Experience: 12
Age: 35.6
Height: 5'11"
Weight: 215
40 Time: 4.55

SPARQx (Rank): 109.90 (91%)
Burst Score (Rank): 118.50 (80%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.06 (89%)
Throw Velocity (Rank): 56.00 (61%)

Russell Wilson's Weekly Outlook

Week 1 Projections
Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
199 1.36 0.5 16.7 14.9
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
242.9 1.6 0.7 16.9 17.3

Russell Wilson's 2024 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#31 Quarterback

194.4 Projected Points

ADP Comp/Att P Yds P TD INT Att R Yds Fum
17.4 241.8/369.2 2587 17.68 6.5 50.7 217.1 2.6

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsRussell Wilson's Preseason Player Analysis

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Bottom Line

Wilson remains decent. That’s likely enough to keep him ahead of Justin Fields on the depth chart when healthy. But there’s nothing exciting about this version of Wilson nor his new situation. He carries modest upside as a QB3 for best ball and superflex formats. Otherwise don’t expect too much.

What We Learned Last Year

  • Here’s how well Wilson played for Sean Payton’s Broncos in 2023: The team decided it would rather start Jarrett Stidham the final two weeks than risk getting stuck with Wilson’s contract the following year if he got hurt.
    • In case you forgot, that’s the same treatment Derek Carr got in Vegas at the end of 2022.
  • Wilson certainly wasn’t terrible, though. He ranked 14th among QBs in total fantasy points (depending on your format) and 16th in points per game among multi-game starters.
  • Wilson posted the third-best completion rate of his career and tied for third in the league in passing-TD rate.
  • A big part of that efficiency was Wilson getting more conservative with his play, though. He went for easily the shortest average depth of target in his career.
    • Wilson’s 7.8-yard aDOT tied for 31st among 49 QBs with 100+ dropbacks.
    • It fell 1.2 short of his previous low and marked a 1.7-yard decline vs. 2022 (his first Denver season).
  • Wilson ranked 29th (among 45 qualifiers) in NFL Next Gen Stats’ intended air yards per attempt and just 37th in caught air yards per attempt.
    • That discrepancy (tied for seventh-largest) would seem to indicate some lag in performance by his receivers. But his company says otherwise.
    • Wilson tied with Baker Mayfield (fine). Here were the six who finished ahead:
      • Will Levis
      • Deshaun Watson
      • Taylor Heinicke
      • Trevor Siemian
      • Mac Jones
      • Bailey Zappe
  • Wilson rebounded a bit as a rusher. His 5.3 attempts per game marked his highest average since 2017. He ranked fifth among QBs in carries (80) – despite missing the final two games – and seventh in rushing yards.

What to Expect in 2024

  • Wilson didn’t land anywhere near the contract in Pittsburgh that Carr did in New Orleans. But the two situations are very different.
    • Denver remained on the hook for whatever portion of Wilson’s 2024 salary he didn’t get from a new team. That clearly incentivized the Steelers and Wilson to work together on a minimal salary.
    • Wilson gets the same money either way. A small Pittsburgh salary sticks it to the team that dumped him. And saving the Steelers salary-cap space can only help his quality of teammates.
    • Short version: Don’t read anything into the mere $1.21 million vet-minimum contract Wilson signed with Pittsburgh.
  • All indications have pointed to the Steelers importing Wilson to take over as starter. Justin Fields arrives as a low-cost (traded a sixth-round pick) backup/reclamation project.
  • Pittsburgh traded away Diontae Johnson, its lead receiver for the past five years – dominantly so in three of those seasons. That leaves an iffy crew behind.
    • WR George Pickens becomes the de facto No. 1.
    • Third-round rookie Roman Wilson and limited vet Van Jefferson look like the next two.
    • TE Pat Freiermuth sports promising ability, but even he’s coming off a down year.
  • Speaking of which, Pittsburgh also dumped OC Matt Canada (after three years) for Arthur Smith. He parlayed two years of strong, efficient Titans offenses into three years of head-scratching touch distributions in Atlanta.
    • What we know for sure is that Smith leans run.
    • Atlanta ranked 30th in the league in neutral-situation pass rate over the past three years. The 2019-20 Titans? 31st.
  • These Steelers look like another prime candidate to follow Smith’s previous play-calling tendencies. In addition to the iffy pass-catching corps and more limited version of Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh sports a solid-to-strong pair of RBs
    • Expect Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren to drive the offense and limit Wilson’s volume upside.

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Justin Fields, QB PIT

8:45am EDT 3/25/24

Justin Fields in the mix for Steelers' job

It was reported when the Steelers traded for QB Justin Fields that he was coming in to back up QB Russell Wilson. HC Mike Tomlin clarified the situation over the weekend, calling Wilson the favorite for the starting job but adding that Fields is in the mix, too. "When it's time to compete, Justin will given an opportunity to compete," Tomlin said. "But I thought it was appropriate to describe it in a way for when we get started. Russell's in pole position, and I think his body of work justifies that." Wilson was decent last year, completing 66.4% of his passes, averaging 6.9 yards per attempt, and ranking 19th among 30 qualifiers in Pro Football Focus' passing grades. It's certainly possible that he plays well enough throughout 2024 to keep Fields on the bench. But fantasy drafters should not be treating Wilson as a locked-in starter at this point. Fields, meanwhile, is tough to spend a pick on in early best-ball drafts. But this could be a nice time to buy low in dynasty leagues.

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The Bears are sending QB Justin Fields to the Steelers for a low-level draft pick. According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, Chicago gets only a sixth-rounder in 2025 that will become a fourth-rounder if he plays at least 51% of Pittsburgh's offensive snaps this year. NFL Network's Tom Pelissero reports that a source told him "Russ is the starter." That, of course, refers to Russell Wilson, also recently acquired. It's a steep fall for Fields but a decent landing, behind a 35-year-old starter in clear decline. Fields is also unlikely to have his fifth-year option picked up this offseason. So we're betting he'll hit unrestricted free agency ahead of the 2025 season. We'll see about Fields' status at that point. For now, hold him if you can in dynasty -- just in case he finds a starting opportunity this year. We've seen that Fields can deliver fantasy points even while playing iffy-to-poor football. But Fields isn't a must-hold in shallower formats.

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The Steelers traded QB Kenny Pickett and the 120th overall pick of this spring's draft to the Eagles in exchange for pick No. 98 and a pair of 2025 seventh-rounders, ESPN's Adam Schefter reports. Pickett wanted out of Pittsburgh after the arrival of QB Russell Wilson, according to Schefter. So Pickett goes from Wilson's backup ... to Jalen Hurts' backup. He still has two years left on his current contract, so it'll be at least 2026 before Pickett has a chance to sniff a starting job. Considering his lackluster play in Pittsburgh, it's more likely that Pickett settles in as a career backup.

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The Panthers acquired WR Diontae Johnson and a seventh-round pick from the Steelers in exchange for CB Donte Jackson and a sixth-rounder, ESPN's Adam Schefter reports. It's a relatively cheap price to pay for a guy with 332 catches over the past four seasons. Johnson's production has largely been volume-based, though. His 6.7 yards per target over those last four years ranks 67th among 71 WRs with 200+ total targets during that stretch. Johnson didn't rank better 23rd in yards per route in any of those seasons. That said, he immediately becomes the Panthers' clear No. 1 WR. And Carolina figures to throw it a bunch more than the Arthur Smith-led Steelers. QB play is a concern, of course, after Bryce Young's ugly rookie season. But the move is still a win for Johnson's 2024 fantasy value. In Pittsburgh, meanwhile, George Pickens will likely get a crack at No. 1 WR duties. The Steelers will certainly be adding to the WR corps this offseason, though. And Arthur Smith's run-heavy offense will keep Pickens' upside capped.

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QB Russell Wilson announced late Sunday night that he'll be signing with the Steelers after his release from Denver becomes official. The vet will be signing for just $1.2 million, thanks to the Broncos being on the hook for about $39 million. That Pittsburgh number is far from guaranteed-starter money. But Wilson's quick decision on the Steelers almost certainly means they guaranteed him at least a chance to compete for the starting job. If Wilson can't beat out Kenny Pickett this summer, it'd be either the worst sign yet for his career or a huge step forward for Pickett. We'll head toward summer assuming Wilson will emerge as the starter. The landing spot, though, isn't exciting for his fantasy outlook. And Wilson's arrival -- after the way he performed the past two years -- doesn't elevate Pittsburgh's pass-catchers.

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Dynasty Overview View QB Dynasty Rankings »

Russell Wilson, QB PIT
Dynasty MVP 47.6
Position Rank #75 QB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
163
239
407
Dynasty Write-up
Wilson signed a contract with $161 million in total guarantees…then put together the worst season of his career in 2022. HC Sean Payton failed to pull Wilson's production back to its mid-career levels in 2023. Now, he'll need to beat out Justin Fields to hold down Pittsburgh's starting job in 2024.
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