Russell Wilson - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Wilson remains decent. That’s likely enough to keep him ahead of Justin Fields on the depth chart when healthy. But there’s nothing exciting about this version of Wilson nor his new situation. He carries modest upside as a QB3 for best ball and superflex formats. Otherwise don’t expect too much.

What We Learned Last Year

• Here’s how well Wilson played for Sean Payton’s Broncos in 2023: The team decided it would rather start Jarrett Stidham the final two weeks than risk getting stuck with Wilson’s contract the following year if he got hurt.
  • In case you forgot, that’s the same treatment Derek Carr got in Vegas at the end of 2022.
• Wilson certainly wasn’t terrible, though. He ranked 14th among QBs in total fantasy points (depending on your format) and 16th in points per game among multi-game starters.
• Wilson posted the third-best completion rate of his career and tied for third in the league in passing-TD rate.
• A big part of that efficiency was Wilson getting more conservative with his play, though. He went for easily the shortest average depth of target in his career.
  • Wilson’s 7.8-yard aDOT tied for 31st among 49 QBs with 100+ dropbacks.
  • It fell 1.2 short of his previous low and marked a 1.7-yard decline vs. 2022 (his first Denver season).
• Wilson ranked 29th (among 45 qualifiers) in NFL Next Gen Stats’ intended air yards per attempt and just 37th in caught air yards per attempt.
  • That discrepancy (tied for seventh-largest) would seem to indicate some lag in performance by his receivers. But his company says otherwise.
  • Wilson tied with Baker Mayfield (fine). Here were the six who finished ahead:
    • Will Levis
    • Deshaun Watson
    • Taylor Heinicke
    • Trevor Siemian
    • Mac Jones
    • Bailey Zappe
• Wilson rebounded a bit as a rusher. His 5.3 attempts per game marked his highest average since 2017. He ranked fifth among QBs in carries (80) – despite missing the final two games – and seventh in rushing yards.

What to Expect in 2024

• Wilson didn’t land anywhere near the contract in Pittsburgh that Carr did in New Orleans. But the two situations are very different.
  • Denver remained on the hook for whatever portion of Wilson’s 2024 salary he didn’t get from a new team. That clearly incentivized the Steelers and Wilson to work together on a minimal salary.
  • Wilson gets the same money either way. A small Pittsburgh salary sticks it to the team that dumped him. And saving the Steelers salary-cap space can only help his quality of teammates.
  • Short version: Don’t read anything into the mere $1.21 million vet-minimum contract Wilson signed with Pittsburgh.

• All indications have pointed to the Steelers importing Wilson to take over as starter. Justin Fields arrives as a low-cost (traded a sixth-round pick) backup/reclamation project.
• Pittsburgh traded away Diontae Johnson, its lead receiver for the past five years – dominantly so in three of those seasons. That leaves an iffy crew behind.
  • WR George Pickens becomes the de facto No. 1.
  • Third-round rookie Roman Wilson and limited vet Van Jefferson look like the next two.
  • TE Pat Freiermuth sports promising ability, but even he’s coming off a down year.
• Speaking of which, Pittsburgh also dumped OC Matt Canada (after three years) for Arthur Smith. He parlayed two years of strong, efficient Titans offenses into three years of head-scratching touch distributions in Atlanta.
  • What we know for sure is that Smith leans run.
  • Atlanta ranked 30th in the league in neutral-situation pass rate over the past three years. The 2019-20 Titans? 31st.
• These Steelers look like another prime candidate to follow Smith’s previous play-calling tendencies. In addition to the iffy pass-catching corps and more limited version of Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh sports a solid-to-strong pair of RBs
  • Expect Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren to drive the offense and limit Wilson’s volume upside.