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Russell Wilson - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Russell Wilson
SEA

QB SEA

#6 Quarterback

404 Projected Points

ADP: Not Available
Bye: 9
Experience: 9 Yr(s)
Age: 32
Height: 5'11"
Weight: 206
40 Time: 4.53

2021 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#6 Quarterback

404 Projected Points

ADP Comp/Att P Yds P TD INT Att R Yds Fum
Not Available 374/570 4396 35 11 437

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

3d Projection

Med Floor

375.7

DS Projection

404

Consensus

38 other sites
358.25

High Ceiling

468.6

Ceiling Likelihood

Medium
How likely they will reach their ceiling projection

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • Wilson ranked 6th among QBs in fantasy points last year.
  • He’s now finished as a top-12 QB in each of his 9 NFL seasons. That includes 5 top-6 finishes.
  • Wilson is the only QB to throw 30+ TDs in each of the past 4 seasons.
    • He’s ranked top 2 in pass attempts into the end zone in all 4 of those seasons, according to Pro Football Focus.
  • Wilson provided a nice weekly ceiling and floor last year.
    • He scored 35+ fantasy points in 4 games -- tied for 2nd most among QBs.
    • He scored 24+ points in 9 games -- tied for 3rd most.
  • Wilson was spectacular over the 1st half of last season.
    • He averaged 318 passing yards and 3.5 TDs over his first 8 games.
    • He completed 71.0% of his passes and averaged 8.6 yards per attempt.
    • He ranked 2nd in Pro Football Focus’ passing grades among 34 qualifiers.
    • He ranked 2nd among QBs in fantasy points per game.
  • But Wilson struggled over the 2nd half.
    • He averaged 209 passing yards and 1.5 TDs over his final 8 games.
    • He completed 66.3% of his passes and averaged 6.4 yards per attempt.
    • He ranked 16th in PFF’s passing grades among 35 qualifiers.
    • He ranked 17th at his position in fantasy points per game.
    • Wilson also went 11-of-27 for 174 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT in the Wild Card loss to the Rams.
  • There was talk early this offseason that Wilson and the Seahawks were headed for a divorce, largely due to disagreements between Wilson and HC Pete Carroll over the direction of the offense. That cooled off by the spring, so expect Wilson to be in Seattle for at least this season.
  • The Seahawks canned OC Brian Schottenheimer and replaced him with Shane Waldron.
    • Waldron’s only OC experience came at Buckingham Browne & Nichols High School in 2011.
    • He spent the past 4 seasons as passing-game coordinator/QBs coach for the Rams under Sean McVay.
    • He also worked under Bill Belichick in New England in 2008 and 2009.
  • The Seahawks return WRs D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, who accounted for 56% of the team’s receiving yards and 50% of the receiving TDs last year.
  • Seattle added WR D’Wayne Eskridge with the 56th overall pick of this spring’s draft. He’s the favorite to replace David Moore as the #3 WR. Eskridge has a shaky prospect profile but boasts elite speed, clocking a 4.40-second 40 time at his Pro Day.
  • The Seahawks also signed TE Gerald Everett to a 1-year, $6 million deal in free agency.
    • Everett spent the past 4 seasons with the Rams, alongside Waldron.
    • He split time with Tyler Higbee throughout that time but did top 400 yards in both of the last 2 seasons.
    • Everett ranked 13th in yards per route run and 8th in PFF receiving grade among 40 qualifying TEs in 2019; 18th and 28th among 43 last year.
  • The Seahawks’ offensive line has been a problem for years.
    • They’re ranked 18th, 30th and 20th in Pro Football Focus’ pass-blocking grades the last 3 seasons; 30th, 24th and 30th in adjusted sack rate.
    • They’re expected to return 4 of 5 starters from last year’s unit. The new guy is G Gabe Jackson, who Seattle acquired from Vegas in exchange for a 5th-round pick. Jackson has ranked top 19 in PFF’s pass-blocking grades in 7 straight seasons.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Wilson has been as reliable as they come, finishing as a top-12 fantasy QB in each of his 9 seasons. He ranked 6th last year.

But 2020 was a tale of 2 seasons for him. Wilson was excellent over his first 8 games, ranking 2nd among QBs in fantasy points per game. But his numbers sunk across the board over the final 8. Wilson was QB17 in fantasy points per game over that stretch.

The question is whether that was a blip or the start of a downward trend for a guy who will turn 33 in November. We’re betting on the former, but Wilson comes with a bit more risk in 2021 fantasy drafts than he has in the past.

 

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Seahawks QB Russell Wilson talked about running a more up-tempo offense under new OC Shane Waldron, formerly of the Rams. "We have some nuances across the board that really challenge the defense, using the whole field and really expanding the offense," Wilson said via USA Today. "Just using everybody as much as possible, in all different formations and different looks and different tempos.” With Waldron on the Rams staff in 2020, Jared Goff ranked 3rd league-wide in no-huddle dropbacks, per Sports Info Solutions. So there’s some weight behind the sentiment. Entering the summer, Wilson checks in as a top-8 fantasy QB.

View all Russell Wilson Shark Bites »

ESPN's Jeremy Fowler reports that multiple league executives believe the Seahawks will "eventually make [QB Russell Wilson] available because of brewing tension." The Athletic posted a great piece on the deteriorating relationship between Wilson and HC Pete Carroll, spurred mostly by disagreements over the direction of the offense. Wilson, of course, wants to air it out, while Carroll has always had a more conservative philosophy. Wilson hasn't yet demanded a trade, his agent told ESPN, and has told the team that he'd like to remain in Seattle. We'll see where this goes. Wilson has a no-trade clause in his contract, so he'd need to green-light any deal. According to Adam Schefter, Wilson would only accept a move to the Cowboys, Saints, Raiders or Bears.

View all Russell Wilson Shark Bites »

The Seahawks are hiring Shane Waldron as their new OC, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter. We can't say we know much about the guy, to be honest. Waldron spent the past 4 seasons as passing-game coordinator/QBs coach for the Rams under Sean McVay. He also spent time with Washington and New England. But his only OC experience came at Buckingham Browne & Nichols High School in 2011. We've heard that Seattle wants to be a run-leaning offense going forward, but it can't be bad news for Russell Wilson and his WRs that the 'Hawks hired a former passing-game coordinator to call the plays.

View all Russell Wilson Shark Bites »

The Seahawks and QB Russell Wilson have agreed to a 4-year, $140 million extension that includes $65 million in signing bonus and $107 million guaranteed, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. The deal came at the end of a window Wilson had set for extending his contract and ends all the trade speculation. Wilson might have found even more fantasy upside in an offense less focused on running the ball, but he has finished 3 of the past 5 seasons among the top 6 fantasy football QBs. Wilson's extension obviously helps Seattle's wideouts, who certainly would have seen a downturn in efficiency with any replacement.

View all Russell Wilson Shark Bites »

The Seahawks have named Brian Schottenheimer their OC. Marty's son has 9 seasons of NFL experience as an OC -- 6 with the Jets and 3 with the Rams. Only 2 of those teams ranked better than 20th in total offense. Schottenheimer has favored the run as a play-caller, with 6 of his 9 squads ranking higher in rush attempts than pass attempts. We were hoping for a more creative hire for Russell Wilson and Co.

View all Russell Wilson Shark Bites »

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