Russell Wilson - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats

QB SEA

#6 Quarterback

409 Projected Points

ADP: Not Available

Bye: 9

Experience: 9 Yr(s)

Age: 33

Height: 5'11"

Weight: 206

40 Time: 4.53

Weekly Outlook

Week 21 Projections

This player does not have a weekly prediction

Rest Of Way Outlook

Week 14
The Seahawks came out looking to run the ball, but the Texans were able to move out to a 1st quarter lead, which forced Seattle to go to their passing attack more than expected. As has been the case since his return from a broken finger, Wilson struggled to get on the same page with DK Metcalf, but his connection with Tyler Lockett resulted in a number of big plays that helped lead Wilson to his 3rd straight game with 2 TDs. He also posted his highest yardage total since early in the season. Once the game was in control late, the Seahawks went back to the run, keeping Wilson from potentially having a bigger day.

Even though Wilson came into this game having thrown 2 TDs in his prior 2 contests, he’d only thrown 8 TD passes over his prior 7 games. In addition, he failed to surpass 260 yards in his last 7. In the fantasy playoffs, he’ll start out with a tough matchup against the Rams before finishing out with a pair of neutral matchups on his home field against the Bears and Lions. Consider him a floor play with limited ceiling down the stretch.

Week 13
Although Wilson threw a pair of TD passes, he still looked like he’s not playing at the level that fantasy managers are used to. Despite completing nearly 80% of his passes, he completed many short passes, and consequently, he posted just 231 yards. He did throw 8 passes to DK Metcalf, but 2 passes that could’ve been TDs were poorly thrown, keeping Wilson from having a better fantasy performance. Otherwise, Wilson showed great touch on a TD pass to Tyler Lockett in the corner of the end zone.

Coming into this game, Wilson had surpassed 207 passing yards just once in his last 5 games. He also threw for just 5 TDs during that span. In addition, he’s only thrown for multiple TDs twice in his prior 6 games, and since Week 1, he hasn’t thrown more than 2 TD passes. And as a runner, he doesn’t do much anymore, as he has just 1 rushing score and 2 games over 16 yards (with a high of 32). He doesn’t have a great schedule to start the fantasy playoffs when he faces the Rams and Bears, though he does draw the Lions in Week 17.

Week 12
Wilson completed 20 of 31 passes for 247 yards and 2 TDs. He also added 16 carries on 2 rush attempts. As underwhelming as these numbers are for what we expect, they are actually his best since September.

While Wilson has struggled since returning from a hand injury against the Rams, the poor play started before that. The poor play calling has really hampered an offense that should be putting up monster numbers.

Going forward, there is enough talent for Wilson to flourish down the stretch, but this 3-8 team is clearly trending in the wrong direction. Monday’s performance was an indication that things could improve.

Week 11
Wilson completed just 14 of 26 passes for 207 yards in the Seahawks' Week 11 loss to the Cardinals.
For the 2nd straight week since coming off IR with a middle finger injury, Wilson and the Seahawks could not get into a rhythm as the Cardinals dominated from start to finish.
The Seahawks scored a TD in the 4th quarter to cut it to 16-13, but the defense could not stop Colt McCoy as they went right down the field and went back up by 10 points.
Russ should continue to get healthier with his finger injury, but this offense has completely lost their mojo. Wilson has to be viewed as a QB2 in Week 12’s matchup against the Football Team.

Week 10
Wilson completed 20 of 40 pass attempts for 161 yards and 2 INTs in the Seahawks' Week 10 loss to the Packers, adding 5 rushes for 32 yards.
Wilson completed just 50% of his passes and was shutout for the game as Seattle entered Green Bay territory several times but was unable to produce any points.
Wilson threw both of his INTs in the end zone as one came from inside the red zone and the other from around the 50.
Wilson did not receive any help from his WRs as they dropped multiple 1st downs. The Seattle offensive line was abused by an aggressive Packers defense.
Wilson will try to bounce back in Week 11 against the Cardinals in a must-win game against the division rival.

Week 4
With the Seahawks playing with a lead from the 2nd quarter on, Wilson tied a season low with 23 pass attempts. And with him taking very few downfield shots, the conservative passing resulted in him finishing with more than 100 yards fewer than he had in any game this year. He showed his ridiculous talent buying time when under a heavy rush when he bought enough time to connect with Freddie Swain for his 2nd TD pass of the game. He also used his escapability on a run in which he found room to navigate for his first rushing score of the year.

After a 4-TD performance in Week 1, he’s thrown just 5 TD passes over the last 3 games. His ceiling may not be as consistently high as fantasy managers had hoped when selecting him on draft day. One of the issues is that Seattle has run between 54 and 56 plays in each game, making them one of the lowest-volume teams in the league despite the offseason talk of this offense being one that would ramp up their pace of play. In addition, he needs extreme efficiency to produce big numbers while throwing just 27 passes per game.

Week 2
Early-season Wilson is a thing of beauty as the “let Russ cook” narrative was in full swing. He cooked the Titans secondary for 343 pass yards and 2 TDs. Even in new OC Shane Waldron’s offense Wilson continues to take plenty of deep shots as 182 of his passing yards and both TDs came on throws of 20+ yards. If his top two weapons are healthy in Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf, Wilson should continue to perform at a high level.
This week the Seahawks could be in for another potential shootout vs. a red-hot Vikings offense that put up 33 vs. the Cardinals in Week 2. This game flow should allow Wilson to produce at a high level again, making him as strong DFS play for Week 3.

Week 1
The offensive line play is still an issue for the Seahawks as Wilson was 1 of only 4 QBs to be sacked on over 10% of their drop backs in Week 1. The good news is that was about the only issue for the Seahawks. New OC Shane Waldron played to the strengths of Wilson by using heavy play action and taking plenty of deep shots. In Week 1 the Seahawks used play action on 43% of Wilson’s drop backs. That is nearly 17% higher than what the Seahawks used in 2020. The play-action pass game clearly helped the deep passing game as Wilson’s 21.7% deep pass rate was 1st in the NFL (Min. 10 drop backs). He completed 3 of 5 passes for 122 yards and 2 TDs on deep balls.
This week Wilson should be able to repeat his performance as the Seahawks will face a Titans defense that just allowed 289 pass yards and 4 TDs to Kyler Murray in Week 1. This matchup and new play calling style should make Wilson a solid season long and DFS play in Week 2.

Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

Wilson ranked 6th among QBs in fantasy points last year.
He’s now finished as a top-12 QB in each of his 9 NFL seasons. That includes 5 top-6 finishes.
Wilson is the only QB to throw 30+ TDs in each of the past 4 seasons.
- He’s ranked top 2 in pass attempts into the end zone in all 4 of those seasons, according to Pro Football Focus.
Wilson provided a nice weekly ceiling and floor last year.
- He scored 35+ fantasy points in 4 games -- tied for 2nd most among QBs.
- He scored 24+ points in 9 games -- tied for 3rd most.
Wilson was spectacular over the 1st half of last season.
- He averaged 318 passing yards and 3.5 TDs over his first 8 games.
- He completed 71.0% of his passes and averaged 8.6 yards per attempt.
- He ranked 2nd in Pro Football Focus’ passing grades among 34 qualifiers.
- He ranked 2nd among QBs in fantasy points per game.
But Wilson struggled over the 2nd half.
- He averaged 209 passing yards and 1.5 TDs over his final 8 games.
- He completed 66.3% of his passes and averaged 6.4 yards per attempt.
- He ranked 16th in PFF’s passing grades among 35 qualifiers.
- He ranked 17th at his position in fantasy points per game.
- Wilson also went 11-of-27 for 174 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT in the Wild Card loss to the Rams.
There was talk early this offseason that Wilson and the Seahawks were headed for a divorce, largely due to disagreements between Wilson and HC Pete Carroll over the direction of the offense. That cooled off by the spring, so expect Wilson to be in Seattle for at least this season.
The Seahawks canned OC Brian Schottenheimer and replaced him with Shane Waldron.
- Waldron’s only OC experience came at Buckingham Browne & Nichols High School in 2011.
- He spent the past 4 seasons as passing-game coordinator/QBs coach for the Rams under Sean McVay.
- He also worked under Bill Belichick in New England in 2008 and 2009.
The Seahawks return WRs D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, who accounted for 56% of the team’s receiving yards and 50% of the receiving TDs last year.
Seattle added WR D’Wayne Eskridge with the 56th overall pick of this spring’s draft. He’s the favorite to replace David Moore as the #3 WR. Eskridge has a shaky prospect profile but boasts elite speed, clocking a 4.40-second 40 time at his Pro Day.
The Seahawks also signed TE Gerald Everett to a 1-year, $6 million deal in free agency.
- Everett spent the past 4 seasons with the Rams, alongside Waldron.
- He split time with Tyler Higbee throughout that time but did top 400 yards in both of the last 2 seasons.
- Everett ranked 13th in yards per route run and 8th in PFF receiving grade among 40 qualifying TEs in 2019; 18th and 28th among 43 last year.
The Seahawks’ offensive line has been a problem for years.
- They’re ranked 18th, 30th and 20th in Pro Football Focus’ pass-blocking grades the last 3 seasons; 30th, 24th and 30th in adjusted sack rate.
- They’re expected to return 4 of 5 starters from last year’s unit. The new guy is G Gabe Jackson, who Seattle acquired from Vegas in exchange for a 5th-round pick. Jackson has ranked top 19 in PFF’s pass-blocking grades in 7 straight seasons.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Wilson has been as reliable as they come, finishing as a top-12 fantasy QB in each of his 9 seasons. He ranked 6th last year.

But 2020 was a tale of 2 seasons for him. Wilson was excellent over his first 8 games, ranking 2nd among QBs in fantasy points per game. But his numbers sunk across the board over the final 8. Wilson was QB17 in fantasy points per game over that stretch.

The question is whether that was a blip or the start of a downward trend for a guy who will turn 33 in November. We’re betting on the former, but Wilson comes with a bit more risk in 2021 fantasy drafts than he has in the past.

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Seahawks QB Russell Wilson (finger) has been activated from IR. It's confirmation that he'll start Sunday's game vs. the Packers. Wilson said Thursday that his right middle finger is around 90% healed, so he carries a bit more risk than usual in Week 10 fantasy lineups.

View all Russell Wilson Shark Bites »

Seahawks QB Russell Wilson admitted Thursday that his right middle finger still isn't back to 100%. "I feel great," Wilson said. "I feel really close. I'm not 100% yet, but I'm pretty dang close. I would say 90th percentile if not higher. I feel great. I've got great conviction about what I'm doing, how I'm doing it. My mindset is better than ever. I'm ready to roll and ready to go." Wilson said he's noticed the finger in practice this week but believes he can make every throw. He'll come with slightly elevated risk in his 1st game back vs. the Packers on Sunday.

View all Russell Wilson Shark Bites »

Seahawks QB Russell Wilson (finger) has been cleared to return for Sunday's game vs. the Packers, ESPN's Adam Schefter reports. Wilson will end up missing just 3 games. He was sitting 9th among QBs through 4 healthy weeks and has the 7th easiest QB schedule from Week 10 through 17.

View all Russell Wilson Shark Bites »

Seahawks QB Russell Wilson tweeted Monday that the pin is out of his injured right middle finger. He said: "No more pin. Time to Win." That should mean the QB is on track to play Week 10, after Seattle's bye. We'll certainly watch to confirm.

View all Russell Wilson Shark Bites »

Seahawks QB Russell Wilson is "progressing well" in his recovery from finger surgery, according to NFL Network's Mike Garafolo. Wilson is scheduled to have the pin removed from the finger on Friday and has a shot to be back for Week 10's game vs. the Packers, per Garafolo. We'll continue to keep an eye on Wilson's status.

View all Russell Wilson Shark Bites »

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