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Russell Wilson - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsRussell Wilson's Basic Stats

Russell Wilson
ADP: 7.5
Bye: 9
Experience: 10 Yr(s)
Age: 33.5
Height: 5'11"
Weight: 215
40 Time: 4.55
SPARQx (Rank): 109.90 (93%)
Burst Score (Rank): 118.50 (82%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.06 (88%)
Throw Velocity (Rank): 56.00 (61%)

Russell Wilson's 2022 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#10 Quarterback

347.3 Projected Points

ADP Comp/Att P Yds P TD INT Att R Yds Fum
7.5 374/571 4510.9 33.2 10.3 68 306.1 0

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsRussell Wilson's Preseason Player Analysis

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What You Need to Know:
  • After spending the first 10 years of his career in Seattle, Wilson was traded to Denver in March along with a 4th-round pick in exchange for QB Drew Lock, TE Noah Fant, DL Shelby Harris, 2 first-round picks, 2 second-round picks and a 5th-round pick.
  • Wilson’s 2021 campaign was interrupted by a right middle finger injury suffered in October that required surgery and forced him to miss 3 games.
  • Those were the first games Wilson missed as a pro.
  • Wilson struggled in the 9 games after returning from that throwing-finger injury:
    • 61.5% completion rate
    • 7.0 yards per attempt
    • A 56.8 Pro Football Focus passing grade that ranked 26th among 35 qualifiers
  • He was much better in 4.5 games before the injury:
    • 72.0% completion rate
    • 9.6 yards per attempt
    • An 89.5 PFF passing grade – 2nd among 34 qualifiers
  • Wilson topped an 86.0 PFF passing grade in each of the 3 seasons prior to last year, finishing 8th, 2nd and 6th league-wide.
  • Wilson ranked 13th among QBs in fantasy points per game last season.
  • He’s finished as a top-13 fantasy QB in 9 of his 10 seasons, including 5 top-8 finishes and 3 top-5s.
  • Wilson set career lows with 3.1 carries and 13.1 rushing yards per game last year.
    • The finger injury didn’t impact those numbers much. He averaged 3.4 carries and 13.6 yards pre-injury; 2.9 carries and 12.8 yards post-injury.
  • Wilson turns 34 in November.
  • His weaponry in Denver might not be as strong at the top as he had in Seattle, but it’s deeper. WRs Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick are a strong trio; WR K.J. Hamler is a big-play threat once recovered from last September's knee and hip injuries; TEs Albert Okwuegbunam and Greg Dulcich boast pass-catching upside; and RBs Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon are weapons in the passing game.
  • Wilson also gets an offensive line upgrade in Denver. The Broncos ranked 9th in Pro Football Focus’ 2021 pass-blocking grades. (Seattle was down at 26th.)
  • The Broncos re-made their coaching staff this offseason, hiring HC Nathaniel Hackett and OC Justin Outten from Green Bay.
    • It’s Hackett’s first crack at a HC gig. He has 8 years of NFL OC experience: 2013-2014 with the Bills, 2016-2018 with the Jaguars and 2019-2021 with the Packers.
      • Hackett’s Bills and Jaguars offenses – piloted by E.J. Manuel, Kyle Orton and Blake Bortles – were run leaning. But Hackett went pass heavier when he hooked up with Aaron Rodgers. The Packers ranked 7th, 9th and 11th in situation-neutral pass rate the last 3 seasons.
    • Outten worked as Green Bay’s TEs coach the past 3 years. Prior to that, he spent 3 seasons in Atlanta, working under OCs Kyle Shanahan and Steve Sarkisian.
  • We’re projecting the Broncos to be a balanced to pass-leaning offense this year. That’d be a significant shift for Wilson, who played in mostly run-first attacks in Seattle. He topped 32.3 pass attempts per game in only 3 of his 10 seasons with the Seahawks. For perspective, 20 QBs averaged more than 32.3 attempts per game last year.
Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

We’re chalking up Wilson’s relatively disappointing 2021 season to the right finger injury he suffered midway through the year. He was good both statistically and in Pro Football Focus grades before that injury and had shown no signs of decline the few years prior.

Wilson has a new offense to learn and new receivers to build chemistry with after the big trade to Denver. But he has a deep group of weapons and might find himself in the pass-heaviest offense of his career.

Wilson, now 33, doesn’t boast the rushing upside he once did. That caps his fantasy upside a bit. But we still like him as a rock-solid QB1 with a chance to finish among the top 8 at his position.

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K.J. Hamler, WR DEN

9:35am EDT 6/20/22

Deep balls upcoming for Hamler?

Nick Kosmider of The Athletic considers K.J. Hamler the Denver WR that best fits Russell Wilson’s skill set. Hamler suffered a torn left ACL and a dislocated hip in Week 3 of last season. Following a smooth rehab, the speedster could fill a key role alongside one of the league’s best deep ball passers. Kosmider notes that the 3rd-year pro posted a massive 20.1 air yards per target in a limited 2021 sample. Given the crowded WR depth chart, though, Hamler’s best off as a late-round WR7/8 in best ball leagues.

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Speaking Wednesday, new Broncos QB Russell Wilson discussed how long he’d like to remain an NFL QB. “My goal is to play 10 or 12 more years and hopefully win three or four more Super Bowls. That’s the plan,” Wilson said via NBC Sports. “That’s the mindset. That’s why I came here, to finish my career here and hopefully finish on top as a champion. And do it multiple times.” Wilson turns 34 in November, so playing as long as he wants is a major long-shot. Still, the move to Denver — and his current mindset — looks favorable for his dynasty value.

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The Broncos have acquired QB Russell Wilson from the Seahawks for what NFL Network's Tom Pelissero is calling a "massive haul" that includes "multiple" 1st-round picks, players and other picks. We'll see about the final compensation. ESPN's Adam Schefter adds that QB Drew Lock is part of the package heading to Seattle. Wilson leaves 1 of the league's best WR tandems in D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett but lands in a talented offense. Denver returns WR Jerry Jeudy for his 3rd season, extended WRs Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick last year, get KJ Hamler back from his ACL tear and sports Albert Okwuegbunam at TE. We'll see about the specific offensive plans of new HC Nathaniel Hackett, who arrived this offseason after 3 years as Packers OC. For now, Wilson seems appropriately valued at his QB12 ADP. Lock should get a chance at winning the 2022 starting gig in Seattle, though we'll see what else the team has planned at the position. Metcalf and Lockett necessarily get fantasy downgrades after opening their careers with 1 of the most efficient passers in NFL history. Stay tuned for updates as more details get released.

Update: Full details of the trade: Denver gets Wilson plus a 4th-round pick. Seattle gets QB Drew Lock, TE Noah Fant, DL Shelby Harris, 2 first-round picks, 2 second-round picks and a 5th-round pick.

View all Russell Wilson Shark Bites »

NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reports that the Commanders made an offer to the Seahawks for QB Russell Wilson that included "multiple" 1st-round picks. Seattle reportedly rejected that, and talks don't seem to be ongoing. That tells us a couple of things, though: 1) Washington seems serious about upgrading at QB, and 2) The Seahawks just might be serious about keeping Wilson. For now, at least, we're drafting (and projecting) as though Wilson will remain in Seattle for 2022. We'll see how both situations develop.

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This week's Seahawks-Rams game has been moved from Sunday to Tuesday, according to multiple reports, as the Rams deal with a rash of COVID positives. This game won't be on the DFS main slate but will still count for Week 15 in season-long leagues. We'll see if RB Darrell Henderson, WR Odell Beckham and WR Tyler Lockett are able to clear COVID protocols in time for the game.

Update: This game will kick off at 7 pm ET on Tuesday.

View all Odell Beckham Jr. Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View QB Dynasty Rankings »

Russell Wilson, QB DEN
Dynasty MVP 304.6
Position Rank #17 QB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
1,032
1,688
2,325
Dynasty Write-up
Due in part to a lingering finger injury, Wilson finished just 13th in fantasy PPG in 2021, his worst since 2018. A move to Denver gives new life to the 33-year-old's fantasy value. Russ will toss passes to a stacked group of pass catchers that includes Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy and Tim Patrick.

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