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Russell Wilson - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Russell Wilson
SEA

QB SEA

#6 Quarterback

409 Projected Points

ADP: Not Available
Bye: 9
Experience: 9 Yr(s)
Age: 32
Height: 5'11"
Weight: 206
40 Time: 4.53

Weekly Outlook

Week 6 Projections

This player does not have a weekly prediction

Rest Of Way Outlook

Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
230 1.9 0.6 16 20.7
Week 4
With the Seahawks playing with a lead from the 2nd quarter on, Wilson tied a season low with 23 pass attempts. And with him taking very few downfield shots, the conservative passing resulted in him finishing with more than 100 yards fewer than he had in any game this year. He showed his ridiculous talent buying time when under a heavy rush when he bought enough time to connect with Freddie Swain for his 2nd TD pass of the game. He also used his escapability on a run in which he found room to navigate for his first rushing score of the year.

After a 4-TD performance in Week 1, he’s thrown just 5 TD passes over the last 3 games. His ceiling may not be as consistently high as fantasy managers had hoped when selecting him on draft day. One of the issues is that Seattle has run between 54 and 56 plays in each game, making them one of the lowest-volume teams in the league despite the offseason talk of this offense being one that would ramp up their pace of play. In addition, he needs extreme efficiency to produce big numbers while throwing just 27 passes per game.
Week 2
Early-season Wilson is a thing of beauty as the “let Russ cook” narrative was in full swing. He cooked the Titans secondary for 343 pass yards and 2 TDs. Even in new OC Shane Waldron’s offense Wilson continues to take plenty of deep shots as 182 of his passing yards and both TDs came on throws of 20+ yards. If his top two weapons are healthy in Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf, Wilson should continue to perform at a high level.
This week the Seahawks could be in for another potential shootout vs. a red-hot Vikings offense that put up 33 vs. the Cardinals in Week 2. This game flow should allow Wilson to produce at a high level again, making him as strong DFS play for Week 3.
Week 1
The offensive line play is still an issue for the Seahawks as Wilson was 1 of only 4 QBs to be sacked on over 10% of their drop backs in Week 1. The good news is that was about the only issue for the Seahawks. New OC Shane Waldron played to the strengths of Wilson by using heavy play action and taking plenty of deep shots. In Week 1 the Seahawks used play action on 43% of Wilson’s drop backs. That is nearly 17% higher than what the Seahawks used in 2020. The play-action pass game clearly helped the deep passing game as Wilson’s 21.7% deep pass rate was 1st in the NFL (Min. 10 drop backs). He completed 3 of 5 passes for 122 yards and 2 TDs on deep balls.
This week Wilson should be able to repeat his performance as the Seahawks will face a Titans defense that just allowed 289 pass yards and 4 TDs to Kyler Murray in Week 1. This matchup and new play calling style should make Wilson a solid season long and DFS play in Week 2.

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • Wilson ranked 6th among QBs in fantasy points last year.
  • He’s now finished as a top-12 QB in each of his 9 NFL seasons. That includes 5 top-6 finishes.
  • Wilson is the only QB to throw 30+ TDs in each of the past 4 seasons.
    • He’s ranked top 2 in pass attempts into the end zone in all 4 of those seasons, according to Pro Football Focus.
  • Wilson provided a nice weekly ceiling and floor last year.
    • He scored 35+ fantasy points in 4 games -- tied for 2nd most among QBs.
    • He scored 24+ points in 9 games -- tied for 3rd most.
  • Wilson was spectacular over the 1st half of last season.
    • He averaged 318 passing yards and 3.5 TDs over his first 8 games.
    • He completed 71.0% of his passes and averaged 8.6 yards per attempt.
    • He ranked 2nd in Pro Football Focus’ passing grades among 34 qualifiers.
    • He ranked 2nd among QBs in fantasy points per game.
  • But Wilson struggled over the 2nd half.
    • He averaged 209 passing yards and 1.5 TDs over his final 8 games.
    • He completed 66.3% of his passes and averaged 6.4 yards per attempt.
    • He ranked 16th in PFF’s passing grades among 35 qualifiers.
    • He ranked 17th at his position in fantasy points per game.
    • Wilson also went 11-of-27 for 174 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT in the Wild Card loss to the Rams.
  • There was talk early this offseason that Wilson and the Seahawks were headed for a divorce, largely due to disagreements between Wilson and HC Pete Carroll over the direction of the offense. That cooled off by the spring, so expect Wilson to be in Seattle for at least this season.
  • The Seahawks canned OC Brian Schottenheimer and replaced him with Shane Waldron.
    • Waldron’s only OC experience came at Buckingham Browne & Nichols High School in 2011.
    • He spent the past 4 seasons as passing-game coordinator/QBs coach for the Rams under Sean McVay.
    • He also worked under Bill Belichick in New England in 2008 and 2009.
  • The Seahawks return WRs D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, who accounted for 56% of the team’s receiving yards and 50% of the receiving TDs last year.
  • Seattle added WR D’Wayne Eskridge with the 56th overall pick of this spring’s draft. He’s the favorite to replace David Moore as the #3 WR. Eskridge has a shaky prospect profile but boasts elite speed, clocking a 4.40-second 40 time at his Pro Day.
  • The Seahawks also signed TE Gerald Everett to a 1-year, $6 million deal in free agency.
    • Everett spent the past 4 seasons with the Rams, alongside Waldron.
    • He split time with Tyler Higbee throughout that time but did top 400 yards in both of the last 2 seasons.
    • Everett ranked 13th in yards per route run and 8th in PFF receiving grade among 40 qualifying TEs in 2019; 18th and 28th among 43 last year.
  • The Seahawks’ offensive line has been a problem for years.
    • They’re ranked 18th, 30th and 20th in Pro Football Focus’ pass-blocking grades the last 3 seasons; 30th, 24th and 30th in adjusted sack rate.
    • They’re expected to return 4 of 5 starters from last year’s unit. The new guy is G Gabe Jackson, who Seattle acquired from Vegas in exchange for a 5th-round pick. Jackson has ranked top 19 in PFF’s pass-blocking grades in 7 straight seasons.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Wilson has been as reliable as they come, finishing as a top-12 fantasy QB in each of his 9 seasons. He ranked 6th last year.

But 2020 was a tale of 2 seasons for him. Wilson was excellent over his first 8 games, ranking 2nd among QBs in fantasy points per game. But his numbers sunk across the board over the final 8. Wilson was QB17 in fantasy points per game over that stretch.

The question is whether that was a blip or the start of a downward trend for a guy who will turn 33 in November. We’re betting on the former, but Wilson comes with a bit more risk in 2021 fantasy drafts than he has in the past.

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

The Seahawks placed QB Russell Wilson (finger) on IR. That knocks him out for at least the next 3 games. Seattle then has a Week 9 bye, so Week 10 is the earliest Wilson could return. NFL Network's Ian Rapoport recently called a Week 10 return the "best-case scenario" for Wilson. QB Geno Smith is in line to start the next 3 games vs. Pittsburgh, New Orleans and Jacksonville.

View all Russell Wilson Shark Bites »

ESPN's Adam Schefter and NFL Network's Ian Rapoport both report that Seahawks QB Russell Wilson (finger) could be back by Week 10. Rapoport calls it the "best-case scenario." Wilson will at least miss Seattle's next 3 games vs. Pittsburgh, New Orleans and Jacksonville. The Seahawks then have a Week 9 bye before a Week 10 game in Green Bay. We'll see if Wilson can make it back for that one.

View all Russell Wilson Shark Bites »

Seahawks QB Russell Wilson had surgery Friday on the right middle finger he injured in Thursday night's loss to the Rams. NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reports that Wilson needed screws to stabilize the finger and that his return timetable is "roughly 6 weeks." We'll certainly watch for updates along the way, but this is tough news for everyone in the Seattle passing game. Geno Smith played decently in relief of Wilson on Thursday night, completing 10 of 17 passes (58.8%) for 131 yards, 1 TD and an INT -- plus 3-23 rushing. But he's obviously a far cry from the efficiency of Wilson. Week 6 brings a visit to Pittsburgh, which has played soft in pass coverage early this season. Then comes a home date with New Orleans, which Football Outsiders rates 3rd in overall defensive DVOA; 6th against the pass. Seattle also becomes a strong matchup or team defenses while Wilson is out.

View all Russell Wilson Shark Bites »

Seahawks QB Russell Wilson has yet to miss a start through 9+ NFL seasons. But NFL Network's Ian Rapoport believes that streak is "in some doubt" after Wilson hurt his right middle finger in Thursday night's loss to the Rams. HC Pete Carroll described Wilson's injury as a "bad sprain" after the game and wouldn't put a timeline on Wilson's return. Wilson is set for more testing on Friday, and surgery hasn't been ruled out, per Rapoport. We'll let you know as soon as we know more. Geno Smith would step in as Seattle's starter if Wilson misses time.

View all Russell Wilson Shark Bites »

Seahawks QB Russell Wilson injured the middle finger on his right (throwing) hand in the 3rd quarter of Thursday night's game vs. the Rams. Wilson got it taped up and returned for the next possession. But it was QB Geno Smith under center the next time Seattle took the field. We'll update Wilson's status when we know more.

View all Russell Wilson Shark Bites »

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