Fantasy Football Redraft

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Get Ready for Your Fantasy Football Playoffs

Time to Check Those Late Schedules

Which QBs might need help come the fantasy football playoffs?

Which RBs look best set up for success over the final few weeks?

And what about defenses? Now's a good time to start carrying two of them.

Whether you've clinched your berth or are still trying to fight your way in, it's not too early to look ahead and strengthen your roster.

When Do Fantasy Football Playoffs Start?

First of all, most fantasy football seasons end a week earlier than the NFL season does.

Why? Because Week 18 can be particularly rife with NFL teams sitting starters to either prepare for playoff openers or get a look at less-used players ahead of offseason decisions.

Whether your league follows that plan or plays right on through Week 18, your fantasy football playoffs typically run for the final 2-3 weeks of your fantasy season.

Whether your league goes two weeks or three will generally depend on how many teams make the playoffs. There’s no “right” way to work that, but allowing too large a portion of your league to make the playoffs can devalue the regular season and add luck to who wins the championship.

It’s dispiriting to march through a dominant regular season only to face a .500 squad on its biggest spike week of the year.

How Do Fantasy Football Playoffs Work?

Of course, that’s part of the game for most fantasy football leagues.

The predominant fantasy football format features head-to-head matchups all season, including the playoff weeks. That’s bound to produce some upsets (and heartache). And frankly, that’s all a big part of why the game’s so popular.

Limiting your playoff berths to the league’s true top teams can help make the result more “fair.” Looking beyond a team’s record and factoring in total points can also remove some of the luck.

Head-to-Head Playoffs

Fantasy football playoffs most commonly feature the playoff teams squaring off against each other in the familiar playoff structure. Win and you move on to the next week. Lose and you’re out. Last team standing wins.

Some leagues make the championship a two-week matchup, which can lower the chances of a particular spike or lull in scoring determining the victor. This format combines each team’s scores for the final two weeks to crown the champ.

In either case, you will also find some leagues that include a loser’s bracket. That can either include non-playoff teams or those who lost in the playoffs.

The purpose: Keep everyone motivated to keep setting lineups and trying to win even after their title shot disappears. Such play can be for league prize shares, draft position the following year, or other incentives.

Total Points Playoffs

Eschewing head-to-head matchups for a total-points format in the fantasy football playoffs is more common in tournament play. But it can be a good setup for any fantasy football league as well.

This is a particularly good method for decreasing the luck factor in your playoffs. One common setup works like this:

1. Each playoff team starts with its weekly scoring average from the season.
2. Add each team’s point total for each week of your league playoffs.
3. Highest total score at the end wins.

This format rewards the best regular-season teams with a head start on points. And it also limits the impact of a one-week scoring peak or lull in the playoffs.

Fantasy Football Playoffs Strategy and Matchups

Of course, we’re in November now. So you’re not looking for tips on how to format your league. That’s been set for months (or years?).

You want to win. And that’s the main reason we’re here.

I’ll dig into season-ending schedules and some targets (and avoids) by position. But let’s hit some overall tips first:

• Don’t get too cute with risky starters. Matchups matter, of course. And we’ll continue using all the same data to produce our weekly projections every week of the season. But it’s especially easy to overthink your lineup decisions and talk yourself into an upside play in the fantasy football playoffs. In many cases, it’ll be better to stick with what has worked.

• Pay attention to injuries and trends. This should be obvious, but it’s especially important at the end of the season. If you miss something in Week 6 and leave the wrong guy in your lineup (or out of it), you’ve got time to make up for that. Not so come Week 16. Of course, we’ll keep tracking all the fantasy football news you need to know.

• Make sure it’s your lineup. I field plenty of questions along the lines of, “Why do you guys have this WR a few spots behind this other guy? I’m leaning toward the lower guy because ____.” If there’s a large gap between the projections for the two players, then there’s a reason. And I’m happy to explain. But if those guys sit close together, then I’ll often tell you to go with your gut. We certainly won’t be right about every pick. And you’re gonna kick yourself a lot harder tomorrow if you lose by sitting your guy.

Now let’s get specific by position, checking into the best – and worst – schedules for weeks 15-17 …

Fantasy Football Playoffs QB Strategy

Let’s start with this reminder: Don’t overplay the matchups even in these final weeks.

I know from experience that you do not want to lose your title matchup by sitting the QB who’s been delivering you weekly points for the guy you talk yourself into because he’s “in a good spot.”

That should at least be easier with this ugly group now leading our QB strength-of-schedule rankings for the standard fantasy football playoffs weeks:

That said, matchups do factor in plenty at this position. And these QBs look like candidates to get late-season boosts:

Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Mayfield has been terrific all season and now has WR Mike Evans back.

His schedule used to rank among the best remaining but has dropped out thanks to the Chargers matchup getting more difficult ...

The Chargers' defense has played well all season, but it's not impenetrable. They beat up Kirk Cousins in Week 13, but the three games before that included:

• Will Levis: 2 TD passes
• Joe Burrow: 356 yards, 3 TD passes
• Lamar Jackson: 3 total TDs, 30 team points

I'd bet Mayfield will land at least inside our top 15 QBs for Week 15 -- and perhaps top 12.

And even if you lean away from him that week, those Dallas and Carolina matchups look juicy.

Bo Nix, Denver Broncos

Nix sits 14th among QBs in fantasy points per game as of this writing. He's coming off a rough outing against the Browns (QB25 fantasy finish) but delivered three straight top-12 performances before that.

The rookie has finished 12th or higher among fantasy QBs in six of his past nine games.

If anyone in your league drops Nix during Denver's Week 14 bye, pounce. He gets a positive matchup with Indy in Week 15 and then a high-ceiling visit to Cincinnati in Week 17.

In between sits a visit to the Chargers that you might want to avoid.

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers

Like Nix, Herbert is coming off a down week. He finished just QB31 in the win over Atlanta.

But that followed five straight weeks of top-13 performances.

A pair of injuries are challenging WR Ladd McConkey's availability for Week 14, which would inhibit a mediocre corps of pass-catchers.

If McConkey can rebound ahead of the fantasy football playoffs, though, Herbert's trio of matchups have gotten even friendlier than they were before ...

Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals

Murray's tough to read. He delivered his best fantasy score of the season in Week 10 against the Jets, a game that included 91.7% completions and a pair of rushing scores.

But he sandwiched that between two of his three lowest scores all season. And he followed that with a meh QB18 finish at Minnesota -- a tough matchup

He's got a challenging spot this week against Seattle, which limited Murray's production in their Week 12 meeting and held the Cardinals to 6 total points.

You'll probably want to pair Murray with another QB, if you haven't already done so.

QBs to Avoid?

Here are the five worst QB playoff schedules:

Takeaways

• Be wary of the schedule finish for Jared Goff. He has been volatile anyway, with success depending heavily on extremely high efficiency – especially completion and TD rates.
• Brock Purdy's tough finish plus San Francisco's general struggles recently mean you should try to secure another QB option ahead of the playoffs.
• Don’t plan to play Geno Smith in Week 17. He could pair with Herbert and be usable for that neutral Week 16 home date with Minnesota. But he and the Seahawks have also struggled a bit recently. If you don't need to count on Smith over the final three weeks, you might be better off.
• Drake Maye has been fun, and he certainly seems like he'll be fun for plenty more fantasy seasons. But that's a tough playoff draw for a rookie QB with about 0.8 NFL wideouts at his disposal.

Fantasy Football Playoffs RB Strategy

Let’s check out the top 5 RB schedules for weeks 15-17 …

James Conner and Trey Benson, Arizona Cardinals

We made Conner a “sell” back in the Week 5 Trade Targets. But he looks more like a “hold” at this point.

For one thing, the further you get into the season, the less you need to worry about future injury risk.

For another, his role improved. Conner regained the receiving usage he lacked at that point.

And finally, stashing rookie Trey Benson can give you an upside handcuff – just in case. Benson has seen his work increase recently and remains available in more than 70% of Yahoo leagues as of this writing.

Breece Hall, New York Jets

Hall tied his season high in touches and delivered his biggest fantasy score of the year just before the Week 12 bye.

The Jets are a little more difficult to like overall. But perhaps the lackluster passing performance can help keep work coming Hall's way.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers RBs

Bucky Irving set season highs Sunday in touches, rushing yards, receiving yards and fantasy points. He has now caught 3+ passes in five straight games, in addition to taking the rushing lead.

That makes White a flimsier fantasy bet, though he has found the end zone in five straight games.

We'll see whether his 1-catch game against the Giants represented a blip or the new backfield setup.

Detroit Lions RBs

The Lions would rather run the ball. They rank just 22nd in pass rate vs. expectation for the season. Combine that with three defenses who all limit passing numbers more than rushing production, and you could get a busy fantasy-playoffs stretch for Lions RBs.

I’m not sure how much we can do with that, though. Jahmyr Gibbs isn’t likely available, especially after a big Week 12.

David Montgomery has gained significant receiving work in recent weeks but also came away from Week 12 with a shoulder injury. He's trending toward playing in Week 13, so that shouldn't be too big an issue.

Titans RBs

Tony Pollard managed just 8 carries and 12 total touches with Tyjae Spears back in Week 13. But the bigger issue was his team getting blown out.

Pollard still played 40 snaps to Spears' 14, out-carried Spears 8-1, and ran 22 routes to Spears' 9. He also got all 6 of the team's RB targets.

Spears will probably command more work than that the rest of the way. But Pollard still looks capable of helping teams win in the fantasy football playoffs.

And Spears remains an attractive handcuff stash, especially with QB Will Levis playing better than he did early this year.

RBs to Avoid?

Here are the five worst RB playoff schedules by our numbers:

Takeaways

• That’s a rough finish for Najee Harris, especially with Jaylen Warren challenging his touches recently. I’d try to work around having to depend on him over that stretch.
• The Chicago offense has seemed to rebound some in two games since the OC change. But D’Andre Swift got a workload challenge from Roschon Johnson in Week 11 and then had his worst rushing outing since Week 3 against Minnesota (13 carries, 30 yards).
• We'll see if Isiah Pacheco reclaims more work from Kareem Hunt in Week 14. At the moment, the backfield split and tough schedule make both guys fairly unattractive.
• Joe Mixon will obviously remain in your starting lineup if you're stuck with him. But this schedule finish was a key reason we named him a "sell" ahead of Week 12.

Fantasy Football Playoffs WR Strategy

Check out this ugly set of teams getting the most positive WR matchups for the fantasy football playoffs …

Malik Nabers, WR, New York Giants

The Giants' QB situation obviously isn't helping Nabers. But his usage continues to keep him useful in PPR lineups.

Nabers hasn't caught fewer than 6 passes in a game or dipped below 50 yards since his Week 7 return from a concussion.

Calvin Ridley, WR, Tennessee Titans

Ridley has dramatically improved his production since the DeAndre Hopkins trade. Much better play by QB Will Levis since his return from injury certainly hasn't hurt.

Jakobi Meyers, Las Vegas Raiders

Meyers' past four games include these receiving lines:

• 8-105 on 11 targets vs. the Bengals
• 10-121 on 15 targets vs. the Broncos
• 6-97 on 11 targets vs. the Chiefs

He gets another positive matchup with Tampa Bay in Week 14. And then the best fantasy football playoffs schedule among WRs.

Meyers just might turn into a league winner in 2024.

Green Bay Packers WRs

We haven’t been able to trust much in Green Bay’s passing game lately. Even Jayden Reed has caught three passes or fewer in five of his past six games.

Romeo Doubs is missing his second straight game with a concussion this week.

Christian Watson followed a 4-150 receiving line at Chicago with no catches vs. San Francisco and 2 catches vs. Miami.

We'll see whether Dontayvion Wicks can become a factor.

WRs to Avoid?

Check out the six worst remaining WR schedules by our numbers …

Takeaways

• There’s that same negative span for Lions WRs that we covered for Jared Goff earlier. I’d lean away from planning to use Jameson Williams in the fantasy football playoffs. I wouldn’t plan to bench Amon-Ra St. Brown if you have him. But he might be a trade candidate. Just don’t undersell.
• Add the schedule to Anthony Richardson's return and the Josh Downs injury, and Indy WRs are best left to someone else.
• Jaguars WRs are in enough trouble with Mac Jones behind center the rest of the way.
• The outlooks aren’t changing for Justin Jefferson, Puka Nacua, or Cooper Kupp because of a couple bad matchups. Jordan Addison probably shouldn't  factor heavily into your playoff plans, though, if you can help it.

Fantasy Football Playoffs TE Strategy

In most cases, if you already have a solid TE, then you should just roll with him. But these top TE schedules might give us a few tips …

TE Help?

• T.J. Hockenson has wavered between weak and strong fantasy performances. One reason to be optimistic off a down week vs. Arizona, though, is that his playing time stayed up. Hockenson has played at least 64% of the snaps the past two games after staying short of 50% in each of his first three appearances.
• Seahawks TE Noah Fant returned in Week 13 for the first time since October. And he got right back to the forgettable production that's marked his season (3 receptions, 26 yards). He's an only-if-you-need-him option.
• Titans TE Chig Okonkwo and Saints TE Juwan Johnson sit in similar territory. Johnson gained some upside with Taysom Hill going down, at least.
• Trey McBride should be kept in bubble wrap between games.

Fantasy Football Playoffs DST Strategy

Unless you play with especially deep benches, you should not already be stashing defenses for your playoffs. But it doesn’t hurt to be aware of some streaming-level options as the end of the season draws closer. In alphabetical order (because it’s still too early to rank them) …

Arizona Cardinals Defense

Arizona’s D has improved, especially against the pass. The Cardinals held three straight opponents to 10 offensive points or less, and then kept the Vikings in check for three quarters on the road.

Don’t be surprised if they look like a top-8 option for a Week 15 home date with the Patriots and a Week 16 visit to Carolina.

Week 17 at the Rams looks like one to try to avoid.

Atlanta Falcons Defense

The Falcons still stink on defense. But they did deliver a season-high 5 sacks in Week 13 while holding the Chargers to just 9 offensive points.

That at least makes them potentially usable at Vegas in Week 15, though that pass offense might be getting a little more dangerous.

Atlanta will at least make sense for a Week 16 home date with the Giants -- no matter who's playing QB.

Cincinnati Bengals Defense

The Bengals have been a boom-bust play, with double-digit fantasy scores against the Browns, Raiders, and Chiefs (wut?) back in Week 2. Tennessee and Cleveland look like the only two good spots remaining.

Indianapolis Colts Defense

The Colts will come off a Week 14 bye for a Denver matchup that you'll probably want to avoid. But there's lots of upside in the Titans and Giants the ensuing two weeks.

Jacksonville Jaguars Defense

By Week 16, we could see either a Jags team fighting valiantly at the end of a lost season -- or a team that's giving up.

Similarly, we'll see whether the Raiders and Titans still look like targets for DST plays or present more danger thanks to improved QB performance.

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Matt Schauf, Editor

Matt has earned two Fantasy Pros accuracy awards for IDP rankings and won thousands of dollars as a player across best ball, dynasty, and high-stakes fantasy formats. He has been creating fantasy football content for more than 20 years, with work featured by Sporting News, Rotoworld, Athlon, Sirius XM, and others. He's been with Draft Sharks since 2011.