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Fantasy Football Start Sit Week 18: Avoid The Buffalo Bills
Week 18 always forces fantasy managers to navigate uncertainty. Some teams will rest starters. Others will chase milestones. Our job is to cut through the noise.
This week’s start-sit picks focus on dependable roles, stable usage, and matchups to target when volatility is at its peak.
The right lineup decisions, powered by Draft Sharks rankings, can make all the difference.
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Quarterbacks
Jaxson Dart looks poised for another top-5 performance
Start
Jaxson Dart, New York Giants
QB6 on
Dart had his second-best game of the season last week, completing a season-high 73.3% of his passes and adding 48 rushing yards with 2 TDs. He finished as the QB5 for the week.
Week 18 sets him up for another strong outing. The Giants face a Dallas defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to QBs. The Cowboys have surrendered league-high marks in passing yards (4,291), passing TDs (33), and rushing TDs (8) to opposing QBs.
Dallas has also allowed a league-worst 11 top-12 fantasy finishes to the position. Back in Week 2, Russell Wilson shredded them for 450 yards and 3 TDs.
The Cowboys have offered little clarity on how they’ll handle Week 18, while the Giants carry an implied total of 24, tied for the ninth-highest on the slate.
This is an ideal spot for Dart to close his rookie year with another standout performance. He profiles as a high-end QB1 for the final week.
Sit
Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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The Buccaneers have dropped seven of their last eight games, and Mayfield’s play has contributed to the slide. Since Week 10, he has averaged only 196.4 passing yards per game with 12 TDs and 8 INTs across eight games.
Next come the Panthers, who have allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to QBs.
Carolina held Mayfield to 145 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT in Week 15. Since a Week 8 home beatdown at the hands of Buffalo, the Panthers have allowed just 8 total QB touchdowns across eight games.
Only five QBs all season have posted a top-12 weekly finish against this defense. Mayfield’s a risky QB2 with limited upside.
Running Backs
James Cook won't see his usual workload
Start
Malik Davis, Dallas Cowboys
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Javonte Williams’ shoulder injury puts Davis in line for a featured role. With the Cowboys eliminated from playoff contention and Williams headed for free agency, there’s little incentive for Dallas to rush him back.
Davis shined after Williams exited last week, carrying 20 times for 103 yards. He has flashed big-play ability all season and now gets a chance to audition as the team’s 2025 lead back.
The matchup helps. Dallas visits a Giants defense that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to RBs. Williams posted 130 yards and a TD on 24 touches against this unit in Week 2.
If Williams sits, Davis should handle a similar workload for an offense with the slate’s second-highest implied total (28.5). That puts him firmly in the RB1 conversation.
Even if Williams plays, Davis has earned double-digit touches in two of his last three games. In this matchup, that keeps him in the flex mix.
UPDATE: Davis sat out Wednesday's practice. We'll keep an eye on his practice participation and update his status before Sunday's game.
Rico Dowdle, Carolina Panthers
RB15 on
We faded Dowdle last week in a brutal matchup with Seattle, but Week 18 offers a sharp turnaround. Carolina plays for the NFC South title against a Buccaneers defense that has allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to RBs.
Dowdle’s usage was encouraging. He posted his highest snap share (63%) and carry share (67%) since Week 12 and out-touched Chuba Hubbard 15-7.
He did sit out Tuesday with a toe issue, but fully practiced Wednesday and is expected to start in a must-win spot. Add in contract incentives -- 7 scrimmage yards unlocks $1 million, and a TD triggers another $250,000 -- and motivation won’t be a problem.
No team has allowed more receiving yards to RBs than Tampa. Dowdle ranks 13th among RBs in targets (48) and catches (37), giving him multiple paths to production. He’s a high-end RB2 in Week 18.
Sit
James Cook, Buffalo Bills
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The Bills can’t win the AFC East and are locked into opening the playoffs on the road. That gives the team little reason to expose key starters in Week 18. That puts Cook at real risk of limited snaps or a full rest day.
Cook leads Jonathan Taylor by 47 yards for the rushing title. Taylor plays at 1 p.m. vs. a Texans defense allowing the fourth-fewest rushing yards, and Houston likely won’t be resting starters.
By the time Buffalo kicks off, Sean McDermott will know exactly how many yards Cook needs. Don’t be surprised if Cook takes merely a handful of carries before handing the backfield to Ty Johnson and Ray Davis. Of course, it’s also possible the Bills don’t run him at all.
The role uncertainty makes Cook nearly impossible to trust.
David Montgomery, Detroit Lions
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Montgomery’s role has shrunk since Dan Campbell took over play-calling duties. From Weeks 1-9, Montgomery handled 41% of Detroit’s carries. Since Week 10, that’s down to 34%.
Week 17 marked his first time in eight games with double-digit carries, and he still gained only 25 yards.
The matchup with Chicago isn’t bad, but Montgomery has fallen short of 35 rushing yards in six of his last seven games. Jahmyr Gibbs has also taken 58% of Detroit’s short-yardage snaps since Week 11, reducing Montgomery’s TD chances.
Since Campbell’s shift, Montgomery has averaged 8.9 touches and 44 scrimmage yards per game and has scored in only three of eight outings. He posted 57 yards and a score vs. the Bears earlier this year, but the recent volume decline makes him no better than a low-end flex for Week 18.
Wide Receivers
It's time to sit Khalil Shakir
Start
Ricky Pearsall, San Francisco 49ers
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Pearsall’s rookie season hasn’t gone as planned, but the recent signs are hard to ignore. Over his last two games, he has led San Francisco’s WRs with a 26% target share and averaged 14.6 PPR points.
The 49ers have every reason to empty the playbook Saturday as they push for the NFC’s top seed. Seattle has been stingy against WRs, but Pearsall already carved this defense for 108 yards back in Week 1.
The matchup isn’t perfect, but the opportunity is. He has seen 7+ targets and tallied 5+ catches in two straight, and the game carries the week’s second-highest projected total (49.5).
Parker Washington, Jacksonville Jaguars
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Washington’s first meeting with Tennessee ended early with a hip injury. Since returning, he has looked like a different player. His route rate has climbed each week, and he has posted back-to-back games with double-digit targets and 115+ yards.
Since Jakobi Meyers arrived, Washington ranks second on the team with a 20% target share and sits 20th among all WRs in PPR scoring over that stretch.
The Titans have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to WRs and got shredded by this offense in Week 13 before the clock froze the Jaguars’ passing game. Washington is positioned to stay hot with the AFC South on the line. Treat him as a WR2.
Sit
Khalil Shakir, Buffalo Bills
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Shakir has been held under 10 PPR points in three of his last four games. Last week, he easily led the Bills with a 92.9% route rate and seven targets, but managed only 34 yards against the Eagles.
The matchup is better this week, but it may not matter. The Bills are highly likely to limit or rest key starters against the Jets. Even if they start the game, Buffalo’s starters may only play long enough to build a lead on the hapless Jets and hand the reins over to the second team.
It’s been a disastrous season for Aaron Glenn’s squad, but New York has been respectable at defending WRs. The Jets rank 16th in terms of allowing fantasy points to WRs. Back in Week 2, they held Shakir to one catch for 12 yards on only two targets.
Buffalo is only projected to score 23 points at home against a team they beat 30-10 on the road in September. That tells us that we should expect muted offensive production from the Bills this week. That makes Shakir a player to fade in Week 18.
Josh Downs, Indianapolis Colts
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Downs draws one of the roughest setups of Week 18. Sixth-round rookie Riley Leonard draws his first start. His first action came in relief of Daniel Jones and consisted of 145 passing yards and an INT against the Jaguars in Week 14. Now he faces Houston, a top-4 pass defense that allows the second-fewest fantasy points to WRs.
Downs runs 78.6% of his routes from the slot. That means heavy exposure to Jalen Pitre, who holds PFF’s third-highest slot coverage grade. In their last game together, Downs managed only 23 yards with Leonard at QB.
He’s been under 7 PPR points in five of his last seven and now steps into his toughest matchup of the year. This is not the week to force him into lineups.
Tight Ends
Michael Mayer's volume remains strong
Start
Michael Mayer, Las Vegas Raiders
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Mayer stepped in for Brock Bowers last week and delivered, leading the Raiders in targets (10) and receptions (9) while posting a 92% route rate. That nearly matches Bowers’ season rate of 89%.
With Geno Smith sidelined by a high-ankle sprain, the Raiders are expected to start Kenny Pickett against the Chiefs. Pickett struggled in his Week 15 start, but Bowers still drew eight of his 25 attempts (35%).
Kansas City’s secondary has been hit hard by injuries, and the Chiefs have allowed two TEs to post top-15 weekly numbers in the last three weeks. Mayer is a strong streamer with top-10 upside.
Sit
Tyler Warren, Indianapolis Colts
The Colts turn to rookie Riley Leonard against a Houston defense that has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to QBs. In Leonard’s previous game, he threw for 145 scoreless yards and tossed an INT against a subpar Jacksonville defense.
Tyler Warren led Indianapolis with a 30% target share in that game, yet turned six targets into only 15 yards, his worst fantasy outing of the year.
Houston has been tough on tight ends, allowing the eighth-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points and holding Warren to 22 yards in Week 13. Trey McBride is the only TE to clear 35 yards against the Texans since Week 12.
The Colts are carrying an implied total of just 14.5 points, second-lowest on the slate. Warren profiles as a TE2 with limited upside in a difficult matchup.
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