Aaron Rodgers Fantasy Overview

Unexciting Situation Produced Unexciting Results

Rodgers Failed to Stand Out with Steelers

Rodgers finished his first Pittsburgh season 18th in total fantasy points (depending on your format), though just 26th in points per game.

He tallied the fewest points per game of his career, dropping more than a point from his lone healthy season with the Jets in 2024.

Rodgers also presented little weekly upside, cracking the top 12 only four times in 16 games -- with one of those in Week 18, after most fantasy leagues had wrapped for the season. He produced just one other fantasy finish higher than QB18.

Is That Right Arm Getting Weaker?

Rodgers’ 2025 completion rate lined up with the rest of his career, but his yards per pass attempt fell below 7.0 for the third straight (healthy) year. Compare that 6.7 rate of the past three seasons (the last of which came in Green Bay) to 7.7 yards per attempt across his 18 seasons with the Packers, and you get aging signals.

Rodgers’ TD rate has also settled in at 4.8% each of the past three seasons vs. a 6.0% career mark.

His 6.4-yard average depth of target was the shortest of his career, down 0.6 vs. his Jets campaign and 1.9 from his final Packers season. That number also ranked just 37th among 38 QBs who dropped back 200+ times in 2025, beating only Browns rookie Dillon Gabriel.

The System Shrunk the Passing Game

Rodgers’ age likely factored in, but Arthur Smith didn’t help. Here’s where Smith’s seven offenses as an OC or HC have ranked in net yards per pass attempt, which also accounts for sacks:

• 2019 Titans (OC): seventh
• 2020 Titans (OC): seventh
• 2021 Falcons (HC): 18th
• 2022 Falcons (HC): 18th
• 2023 Falcons (HC): 17th
• 2024 Steelers (OC): 19th
• 2025 Steelers (OC): 21st

Rodgers still avoided sacks well, posting a 5.5% sack rate vs. his 6.4% career mark.

Pittsburgh’s WR corps also provided little assistance, with DK Metcalf the only non-RB to exceed 41 catches. He and Kenneth Gainwell combined for:

• 33.5% of the team’s total targets
• 36.2% of receptions
• 38.8% of receiving yards
• 34.6% of TD catches

Impressive Resilience for an Old Guy, Though

Rodgers fractured a bone in his left wrist last season but missed just one game before returning.

He has otherwise stayed remarkably healthy, playing 16+ games in 10 of the past 12 seasons. A left Achilles’ tear in Week 1 of 2023 cost him the rest of that season, but Rodgers has played 33 of a possible 34 regular-season games since.

His last time-consuming injury before that was a fractured collarbone in 2017 that cost him nine games.

2026 Presents Some Key Changes

New (Old) Coach Helps Bring Rodgers Back

Rodgers returns on a new one-year contract, but a lot has changed around him.

The biggest difference is the coaching staff. HC Mike Tomlin’s gone after 19 years at the helm, giving way to Mike McCarthy. The new leader took over Green Bay’s HC post in Rodgers’ second pro season and worked with him through 2018. McCarthy then served as Dallas head man from 2020 through 2024.

Fifteen of McCarthy’s 18 offenses across those two stops ranked among the league’s top half in total yards, including 11 top-10 seasons. He also piloted 14 top-half scoring finishes, including 12 years among the top 10.

McCarthy’s offenses have leaned pass, with a median rank of 9.5 in pass attempts across 18 years, compared with 15.5 for rushing attempts.

This Cast Is Better Than 2025

The personnel has also changed considerably.

Pittsburgh acquired WR Michael Pittman Jr. and then gave him a two-year extension with $24 million in guarantees. That marks a big upgrade to a WR corps that counted Calvin Austin III as its No. 2 last year on just a 31-372-3 receiving line.

Pittman joins Metcalf and Round 2 rookie Germie Bernard, a reliable receiver across three college stops who’s likely headed for a limited role as the No. 3 for at least his rookie season.

Bernard’s time could be limited further by a strong pair of TEs. Pittsburgh returns Pat Freiermuth as its receiving leader at the position after his opportunity volume suffered under Arthur Smith. The Steelers also extended Darnell Washington this offseason at $10.5 million per year on a four-year deal. That likely signals more receiving usage for a guy who has worked primarily as a blocker but increased his receptions each season.

The backfield shed Gainwell after he caught 14 more passes than any other Steeler last season. Rico Dowdle replaces him to pair with Jaylen Warren. Dowdle played for McCarthy in Dallas, including a 39-catch campaign before player and coach both left town.

The Ceiling Stops in Mid-QB2

Rodgers should get a system and receivers more conducive to passing success in 2026. But his 2024 Jets finale found Rodgers ranking just 21st in fantasy points per game, despite having a full season of Garrett Wilson and 11 games with Davante Adams.

Rodgers’ past three healthy seasons have produced his three lowest fantasy-scoring averages, with three different teams.

It’s tough to envision a ceiling beyond the middle of QB2 range, which doesn’t present much value for most formats.

Still, QB18 production from a QB28 best-ball ADP would matter in superflex, and that range looks reachable if Rodgers and his pass catchers stay healthy.

The Age Cliff Is the Risk

There’s obvious decline risk for a 42-year-old who takes hits for a living. But Rodgers is clearly in excellent physical condition and knows how to prepare for and survive an NFL season.

Barring injury, he’s not likely to crash -- especially relative to his low ADP.