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Aaron Rodgers - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsAaron Rodgers's Basic Stats

Aaron Rodgers
Bye: 14
Experience: 17 Yr(s)
Age: 39.2
Height: 6'2"
Weight: 225
40 Time: 4.71
SPARQx (Rank): 99.50 (79%)
Burst Score (Rank): 115.40 (72%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.71 (28%)

Aaron Rodgers's Weekly Outlook

This is a regular season feature

We’ll have detailed analysis of this player’s performance added here after each week’s game. Weekly outlooks are posted Tuesday at 1pm EST each week.

Rest Of Way Outlook

Aaron Rodgers's 2022 Projections & Outlook


#15 Quarterback

293.2 Projected Points

ADP Comp/Att P Yds P TD INT Att R Yds Fum
Not Available 374.4/563 3802.5 31 11.1 37 125.8 2.7

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsAaron Rodgers's Preseason Player Analysis

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What You Need to Know:

  • After considering retirement last offseason, Rodgers finished as a QB1 in 10 of 16 games.
  • He missed only 1 game (COVID list). He played through a mid-season toe fracture but finished worse than QB9 only once post-injury…so he managed the pain well.
  • Rodgers hasn’t missed a game due to injury since 2017.
  • There was nothing alarming about his underlying numbers. His adjusted completion rate, PFF passing grade, YPA, TD rate and on-target rate all fell in line (or exceeded) his career averages.
  • He added 3 rushing scores, giving him 2+ in 3 of the past 4 seasons.
  • The ’22 Packers watched QB coach/pass game coordinator Luke Getsy take the OC job with Chicago. Matt LaFleur will continue to call plays.
  • Of course, Davante Adams is the major loss here. He’s accounted for 34.1% of Rodgers’ passing TDs over the past 2 seasons. He leaves behind a monster 28.4% target share from 2021.
  • Sammy Watkins and rookies Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs arrived at WR in a quantity-over-quality approach.
  • Watson brings the most sizzle given his size/speed combo. But he’s making a big jump in competition coming from North Dakota State.
  • Green Bay returns a pair of pass catchers Rodgers is familiar with — Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb — but nobody will confuse them for true playmakers. Cobb could even be pushed by 2nd-year slot Amari Rodgers, who arrived in Round 3 last year.
  • As of this writing, the Packers have some veteran options available, including Will Fuller and Julio Jones. Odell Beckham is another, but he might be ready until mid-season (ACL).
  • Green Bay’s O-line finished as PFF’s #7 pass blocking unit in 2021. But there are questions there for ’22, most notably with LT David Bakhtiari and OG Elgton Jenkins.
  • Jenkins tore his ACL in November; Bakhtiari has been slow to recover from the same injury from December of ’20. He made only 1 appearance last fall.
  • High pass volume probably won’t boost Rodgers. Since chucking it 569 times in LaFleur’s first year, he’s gone for 526 and 521 attempts over the past 2 seasons. Green Bay’s ranked 15th, 26th and 16th in pass rate under LaFleur.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Rodgers, 39 in December, is probably just a few years away from retirement. He’s signed for 3 more seasons.

You might see some physical decline risk here — and it’s understandable. Since the merger, only 6 QBs have hit 4,000 passing yards at Rodgers’ age or older.

But we see the loss of Davante Adams as the much bigger risk. With 2 strong backfield options and a very capable defense, Green Bay doesn’t need to put too much on Rodgers’ plate. The future Hall of Famer is someone we’re passing on at a June cost of ~QB12.

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Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Aaron Jones, RB GB

10:40am EST 1/16/23

Jones expected back in '23

Packers RB Aaron Jones is set to count $20 million against the salary cap in 2023. But Packers GM Brian Gutekunst said he expects the veteran to return on a restructured deal. “Yeah, certainly, we expect to have him back,” Gutekunst recently told the media. “Obviously, he’s a dynamic player. It’s amazing. For a guy his size, to bring it every day, he rarely misses a practice, rarely misses a rep. The way he leads that football team, his consistency is amazing.” Indeed, Jones played all 17 games in 2023, setting career highs in rushing yards (1,121) and receptions (59). The 28-year-old’s fantasy ceiling will largely depend on whether Aaron Rodgers returns for another season.

View all Aaron Jones Shark Bites »

Packers QB Aaron Rodgers (right thumb, knee) practiced fully on Friday and doesn't carry an injury designation ahead of Week 17 vs. the Vikings. The former MVP hasn't tallied more than 14 fantasy points since Week 11. Rodgers is a high-end QB2 streaming option based on reputation and the fact that the Vikings' defense presents the 6th-best matchup for opposing QBs in adjusted fantasy points allowed.

View all Aaron Rodgers Shark Bites »

Packers QB Aaron Rodgers (right thumb, knee) practiced in a limited capacity on Thursday. The veteran has fought through injury all season, so he'll probably be fine for Week 17 vs. the Vikings. We'll let you know if something changes on tomorrow's practice report.

View all Aaron Rodgers Shark Bites »

Packers QB Aaron Rodgers (right thumb, knee) was a no-go at practice on Wednesday. The former MVP has gutted through injury all season. If something pops up regarding his availability for Week 17 vs. the Vikings, we'll let you know. Check back tomorrow for an update.

View all Aaron Rodgers Shark Bites »

Packers QB Aaron Rodgers threw for 238 yards and 1 TD on 24-of-38 passing in Sunday's win over the Dolphins. His 13.3 fantasy points (by ESPN scoring) is good for 13th among QBs on the week, at least, with 3 games left to go. Rodgers hit TE Marcedes Lewis for his only score and threw 1 INT. Rodgers figures to land in mid-QB2 range for a Week 17 matchup with the Vikings. Minnesota sits top-10 as a QB-scoring matchup but hasn't been as friendly to the position as the Dolphins have. WR Allen Lazard led the Packers with 11 targets at Miami, catching 5 for 61 yards. WR Christian Watson caught a team-high 6 passes before leaving with a hip injury.

View all Aaron Rodgers Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View QB Dynasty Rankings »

Aaron Rodgers, QB GB
Dynasty MVP 214.9
Position Rank #29 QB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
Dynasty Write-up
Rodgers’ fantasy value bottomed out sans Davante Adams. At 39, he should be considered year-to-year, especially after recent offseasons of uncertainty.

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