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Aaron Rodgers - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsAaron Rodgers's Basic Stats

Aaron Rodgers
ADP: N/A
Bye: 14
Experience: 17 Yr(s)
Age: 38.8
Height: 6'2"
Weight: 225
40 Time: 4.71
SPARQx (Rank): 99.50 (79%)
Burst Score (Rank): 115.40 (72%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.71 (28%)

Aaron Rodgers's Weekly Outlook

Week 4 Projections
Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
240.4 1.7 0.5 6.7 16.2
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
248.4 1.8 0.4 7.4 17.9

Aaron Rodgers's 2022 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#17 Quarterback

306.7 Projected Points

ADP Comp/Att P Yds P TD INT Att R Yds Fum
Not Available 374.4/563 4222.5 31 6.8 37 125.8 2

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsAaron Rodgers's Preseason Player Analysis

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What You Need to Know:

  • After considering retirement last offseason, Rodgers finished as a QB1 in 10 of 16 games.
  • He missed only 1 game (COVID list). He played through a mid-season toe fracture but finished worse than QB9 only once post-injury…so he managed the pain well.
  • Rodgers hasn’t missed a game due to injury since 2017.
  • There was nothing alarming about his underlying numbers. His adjusted completion rate, PFF passing grade, YPA, TD rate and on-target rate all fell in line (or exceeded) his career averages.
  • He added 3 rushing scores, giving him 2+ in 3 of the past 4 seasons.
  • The ’22 Packers watched QB coach/pass game coordinator Luke Getsy take the OC job with Chicago. Matt LaFleur will continue to call plays.
  • Of course, Davante Adams is the major loss here. He’s accounted for 34.1% of Rodgers’ passing TDs over the past 2 seasons. He leaves behind a monster 28.4% target share from 2021.
  • Sammy Watkins and rookies Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs arrived at WR in a quantity-over-quality approach.
  • Watson brings the most sizzle given his size/speed combo. But he’s making a big jump in competition coming from North Dakota State.
  • Green Bay returns a pair of pass catchers Rodgers is familiar with — Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb — but nobody will confuse them for true playmakers. Cobb could even be pushed by 2nd-year slot Amari Rodgers, who arrived in Round 3 last year.
  • As of this writing, the Packers have some veteran options available, including Will Fuller and Julio Jones. Odell Beckham is another, but he might be ready until mid-season (ACL).
  • Green Bay’s O-line finished as PFF’s #7 pass blocking unit in 2021. But there are questions there for ’22, most notably with LT David Bakhtiari and OG Elgton Jenkins.
  • Jenkins tore his ACL in November; Bakhtiari has been slow to recover from the same injury from December of ’20. He made only 1 appearance last fall.
  • High pass volume probably won’t boost Rodgers. Since chucking it 569 times in LaFleur’s first year, he’s gone for 526 and 521 attempts over the past 2 seasons. Green Bay’s ranked 15th, 26th and 16th in pass rate under LaFleur.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Rodgers, 39 in December, is probably just a few years away from retirement. He’s signed for 3 more seasons.

You might see some physical decline risk here — and it’s understandable. Since the merger, only 6 QBs have hit 4,000 passing yards at Rodgers’ age or older.

But we see the loss of Davante Adams as the much bigger risk. With 2 strong backfield options and a very capable defense, Green Bay doesn’t need to put too much on Rodgers’ plate. The future Hall of Famer is someone we’re passing on at a June cost of ~QB12.

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Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Aaron Rodgers, QB GB

9:40am EDT 9/26/22

Efficient day for Rodgers

Packers QB Aaron Rodgers completed 27 of 35 passes for 255 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT in Sunday’s win over Tampa Bay. The pick marked Rodgers’ first since Week 10 of last season. He was on-point otherwise, despite playing with a shorthanded WR corps. He hit Romeo Doubs and Allen Lazard for quick-strike scores near the goal line on a day that produced only 2.8 yards per carry. Entering Monday Night Football, Rodgers is just the QB23 in fantasy scoring. Next up is a home date with the Patriots.

View all Aaron Rodgers Shark Bites »

Packers QB Aaron Rodgers wasn’t asked to do much in Sunday’s win over Chicago, posting 234 yards and 2 scores on 25 attempts. The Bears helped the low volume by scoring only 10 points. Green Bay also had the run game working beautifully, especially with Aaron Jones. Rodgers’ scores went to Jones and Allen Lazard, who made his season debut following an ankle injury. Key RT Elgton Jenkins made his debut in Week 2 as well, although veteran LT David Bakhtiari remained out. Strong O-line play is critical for Rodgers, whose receiving corps lacks a true go-to target. The 38-year-old took 3 sacks against Chicago.

View all Aaron Rodgers Shark Bites »

Packers HC Matt LaFleur announced Monday that QB Jordan Love will start the preseason opener. There's obviously nothing to read into this from a roles standpoint, as Aaron Rodgers is locked in for as long as he wants to be. According to The Athletic, LaFleur said he'll decide after the team's 2nd preseason contest whether Rodgers will play at all in the exhibitions. Don't be surprised if we get extended playing time from Love, who has plenty to prove and might even get showcased for potential trades. He's worth keeping in mind if you're playing preseason DFS.

View all Jordan Love Shark Bites »

Matt Schneidman of The Athletic believes WR Allen Lazard will lead the Packers in receptions. Schneidman cites Lazard’s “sturdy hands” and a budding rapport with Aaron Rodgers. The losses of Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling took away 224 targets, so there’s no doubting the opportunity in front of Lazard. New arrivals Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs and Sammy Watkins don't exactly supply tough target competition. Our current projections agree with Schneidman’s assessment.

View all Allen Lazard Shark Bites »

Speaking at minicamp, Packers QB Aaron Rodgers said he'll “definitely" finish his career in Green Bay. We’d give him some leeway to change his mind. But after signing an extension in March, the 38-year-old is signed through the 2024 season.

View all Aaron Rodgers Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View QB Dynasty Rankings »

Aaron Rodgers, QB GB
Dynasty MVP 255.5
Position Rank #23 QB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
920
1,534
1,534
Dynasty Write-up
Rodgers is back for at least 2022. He’s finished top-6 in passing TDs in 2 straight seasons -- but is now without top target Davante Adams. Rodgers' supporting cast is a clear question mark heading into his age-38 season.
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