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Aaron Rodgers - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Aaron Rodgers
GB

QB GB

#9 Quarterback

385 Projected Points

ADP: Not Available
Bye: 13
Experience: 16 Yr(s)
Age: 37
Height: 6'2"
Weight: 225
40 Time: 4.71

Weekly Outlook

3d Projection

High Floor

16

DS Projection

19.7

Consensus

38 other sites
22

Med Ceiling

26

Rest of
Season

22.7

Week 8 Projections
Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
244.2 1.8 0.5 8 19.7
Weekly Writeup
Rodgers will likely be without WR Davante Adams, who's accounted for 42% of Green Bay's receiving yards and 20% of the receiving TDs this season. Rodgers actually fared well in 6 games without Adams over the last 2 seasons, averaging 311 yards and 2.8 TDs. But that feels like a small-sample aberration. No Adams hurts, especially on a short week vs. Arizona's 3rd-ranked QB defense.

Rest Of Way Outlook

Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
262.9 2.1 0.4 10 22.7
Week 7
Rodgers was his usual smooth self in Sunday’s easy win over Washington. He threw for 274 yards and 3 scores, giving him 2+ scores in 6 straight following the ugly opener. (Rodgers was QB4 for Week 7.) For the first score, he hit Davante Adams on a rollout throw across his body. Later, Rodgers connected with Allen Lazard and Robert Tonyan for scores on well-placed balls. Green Bay went pass heavy in this one, an unusual development for a team that’s been mid-pack in pass rate (58.75%). Look for them to lean run (when they can) at Arizona on Thursday night, as Adams will sit while on the COVID list. After that comes a sweet draw at Kansas City.
Week 6
Rodgers had another stellar fantasy day against the Bears this week. He went 17 of 23 for 195 yards and 2 TDs. He also ran for 19 yards and another TD. After what is appearing to be the outlier performance from Week 1, Rodgers has thrown 2 or more TDs in every game. This was also the 2nd performance in the last 3 where Rodgers added a TD on the ground.

Going forward, Rodgers is showing he picked right back up after last year's monster season. The TDs are not stopping despite the rotating cast of playmakers beyond Davante Adams and Aaron Jones. Rodgers remains a must start going forward.
Week 5
In a game that Rodgers would’ve likely thrown about 30 passes, 3 missed FGs by Mason Crosby that could’ve won the game for the team kept extending the game by putting the ball back in the QB’s hands. Otherwise, this game was all about Rodgers and Davante Adams, as the duo connected for over 200 of the QB’s 344 yards and 1 of the TDs. The other score actually came on a screen pass to A.J. Dillon, who made an athletic dive to get inside the pylon on the 12-yard score.

It’s becoming clear that 2020 may have been 1 of 2 outlier fantasy seasons that Rodgers has had in his career, and that he’ll be a good, but not elite fantasy option. This game was the first time he went over 261 yards, and the 3rd straight game he’s thrown exactly 2 TDs. On the year, he’s only surpassed 2 TDs once, and he’s no longer a factor on the ground, running for negligible yardage while not finding the end zone this year. He’ll continue to be a strong top-12 QB, but top-5 seems unlikely.
Week 4
Rodgers threw for 248 yards and 2 TDs, completing 20 of his 36 passes. He also added 2 yards and a TD on 3 rushing attempts. This was his 3rd straight multi-TD game of the season, tallying 9 total over that span.

Going forward, Aaron Rodgers is incredibly safe and reliable. The majority of weeks, Rodgers will have a chance to be the overall QB1 while providing a very safe floor. Can a game like we saw Week 1 happen? Obviously. But those performances are very few and far between.
Week 3
With his team down a point and only 37 seconds left on the clock (with no timeouts), Rodgers was able to lead the Packers down the field for a game-winning FG. He has a top receiver and fed him all night long. Rodgers finished his night 23/33 for 261 yards and 2 scores.

Rodgers has a seemingly tough matchup on deck against Pittsburgh. However, the Steelers have been more vulnerable than usual in the secondary this year. The Pittsburgh defense has already surrendered 799 passing yards and 6 passing TDs through 3 games.

We have Rodgers ranked at QB11 this week and QB11 the rest of the season.
Week 2
The death of Rodgers after one bad game was greatly overstated. He completed 22 of 27 passes for 255 and 4 TDs in the Monday night win over Detroit. He looked like his old self, taking deep shots, catching defenders napping and utilizing a bevy of pass catchers.

Going forward there is little reason to doubt the Packers QB. While his TD rate from a season ago is likely not sustainable, he showed that ceiling performances are absolutely still in his range of outcomes.

Week 1
First, we will say that this game should be thrown out. It was a disaster from the start and the Packers looked like they weren’t ready to play. This starts with Rodgers. After only seeing pressure on 24% of his drop backs in 2020, Rodgers saw that number jump to 35% in Week 1. Because of that pressure, Rodgers didn’t look comfortable all day as he had the 5th lowest QB grade by Pro Football Focus when under pressure. This could be due to the offensive line changes as they are going through a shakeup. Rookie Josh Myers is taking over for PFF’s #1 graded center in 2020 Corey Linsley and All Pro LT David Bakhtiari is on the PUP list.
The good news for the Packers is that they get the Lions in Week 2. The Lions just allowed 41 points to the 49ers and Jimmy Garoppolo threw for 314 yards on just 25 attempts. We think this matchup justifies giving Aaron Rodgers a second chance in your starting lineup this week.

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • The one thing we all need to know is where Rodgers will actually play football this season. That overrides everything else in this list. And we’ll see.
  • That would matter less if the 37-year-old weren’t coming off an otherworldly rebound campaign.
  • Rodgers went from 62.3% and 62.0% completions the previous 2 seasons to a career-high, league-leading 70.7% in 2020.
  • He tossed a career-high, league-leading 48 TD passes, at a career-high, league-leading 9.1% TD rate.
    • That followed TD rates of just 4.2% and 4.6% the previous 2 years. Those are his only 2 seasons under 5.2% among 13 starting campaigns. His median TD rate over those 13 seasons is 5.9%.
    • That number would have ranked a solid 11th in the league last year.
    • Rodgers is the only QB to ever reach 9% twice (min. 300 pass attempts).
    • He’s also the only QB to ever reach 7% four times.
  • Rodgers delivered 8.2 yards per pass attempt, his highest rate since 2014 and 3rd-most among qualifiers.
  • He posted the 2nd-best passer rating and top QBR of his career, leading the NFL in both categories (for the 1st time since 2011).
  • Good protection helped. Rodgers encountered a career-low 3.7% sack rate. According to Pro Football Reference, he ranked just 28th in pressures faced compared with 13th in pass attempts.
  • Rodgers’ 2020 delivered the 2nd-largest fantasy total ever from a QB age 37 or older, trailing only Peyton Manning’s 55-TD 2013.
  • There have only been 4 seasons so far of 300+ fantasy points in an age-38 season or later.
    • One of those came from 43-year-old Tom Brady last year.
    • Another came from Manning, the year after his record-setting TDs.
    • Brady also hit this range at 38, and Drew Brees did at 39.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Rodgers is likely to lose some efficiency vs. last year’s numbers no matter where he plays in 2021. But he could’ve shed 100 fantasy points off last year’s total and still finished top 12. There’s certainly no reason to believe his performance will suddenly implode. The big question here is whether Rodgers patches things up with the Packers, which seems unlikely as of now. At the same time, Green Bay doesn’t appear all that motivated to trade the disgruntled vet. As long as the stalemate remains, you’ll have a draft-day decision to make:

  1. Take a shot on the likely depressed cost of Rodgers and trust that he’ll start somewhere Week 1.
  2. Pass on him for a more stable option.

If you’re drafting a bunch of best-ball teams, work in some Rodgers shares -- especially if/when he falls beyond his QB11 ADP on FFPC. In lineup-setting formats, either path could work. The bevy of QB options means you can stock your roster with either an attractive alternative or Rodgers insurance.

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

The Packers are keeping LT David Bakhtiari on the PUP list to begin the regular season, as he continues to work back from a late-2020 ACL tear. We're not downgrading QB Aaron Rodgers or RB Aaron Jones on this news, but it'll be an area to watch early in the year. The move means Bakhtiari will miss at least the 1st 6 weeks.

View all Aaron Rodgers Shark Bites »

Packers QB Aaron Rodgers reported for the start of training camp on Tuesday. It's still unclear if he and the team have officially agreed to whatever deal they're reportedly working on. But it sure looks like he's committed to play in Green Bay for at least 1 more season. We've bumped Rodgers, WR Davante Adams and RB Aaron Jones up the rankings.

View all Aaron Rodgers Shark Bites »

Following up on NFL Network's Ian Rapoport's story this morning, ESPN's Adam Schefter reports that the Packers and QB Aaron Rodgers are "close" to working on a deal that would bring Rodgers back to Green Bay for the 2021 season. Per Schefter, the agreement would void the 2023 year in Rodgers' contract and ensure that the team reviews Rodgers' situation after this year. It essentially sounds like this would be his final season with the Packers. We'll continue to track this situation, but Rodgers and Green Bay's skill-position players look much safer to draft now than they did 12 hours ago.

View all Aaron Rodgers Shark Bites »

NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reports that "Packers QB Aaron Rodgers has indicated to people close to him that he does plan to play for GB this season." We're still waiting for Rodgers to officially report to the team, but this is at least a positive sign. There will be risk to drafting Rodgers until he actually shows up, but his depressed ADP has also presented upside. He's QB11 in current FFPC best-ball drafting, coming off a QB3 fantasy finish.

View all Aaron Rodgers Shark Bites »

Multiple Las Vegas sportsbooks believe Packers QB Aaron Rodgers will retire next week, according to Sports Illustrated's Bill Huber. Westgate SuperBook, for example, has taken down all its NFC North win totals and playoff odds. “Vegas oddsmakers tend to be pretty sharp," a source with knowledge of Rodgers' situation told Pro Football Talk. The thinking here is that Rodgers would "retire" until he was able to get out of Green Bay -- even if that wasn't until 2022. We'll continue to keep a close eye on this situation, but Rodgers carries lots of risk in fantasy drafts until this gets settled.

View all Aaron Rodgers Shark Bites »

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