Bottom Line

Was 2022 evidence of Rodgers’ decline? Or the result of a young WR corps and/or an early-season thumb injury?

In our view: You’d be foolish to be totally out on Rodgers in 2023 drafts. His offensive system won’t require a major learning curve, while Garrett Wilson supplies an upside WR1.

At bottom, the future Hall of Famer is reasonably priced in fantasy drafts.

What We Learned Last Year

• Rodgers’ MVP-level play vanished. His completion rate, TD rate, yards per attempt, QBR, and Pro Football Focus passing grade all hit multi-year lows.
• Rodgers’ 26 TDs marked his fewest since 2018. His 12 INTs were his most since 2010.
• Of course, 2022 turned up his first season without Davante Adams since 2013.
  • Rodgers was tasked with breaking in rookie WRs Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs.
  • No. 2/3-type Allen Lazard and fringe guys like Sammy Watkins and Randall Cobb were next up.
• Green Bay ranked 5th in ESPN’s Pass Block Win Rate; 3rd in PFF pass blocking grade. So his protection at least delivered the goods.
• Still, Rodgers finished better than QB12 once. He didn’t post a single top-five fantasy week.
• He finished QB22 in fantasy PPG.
  • He ranked QB13 overall, with help from 17 games played.
• Credit the 39 year old for remaining durable. He hasn’t missed a game due to injury since 2017.
  • Rodgers has played through toe and thumb fractures over the past two seasons, with the right thumb popping up in 2022.

What to Expect in 2023

• Since the 1970 NFL merger, only Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Brett Favre, and Warren Moon have posted a top-12 fantasy season at age 39+.
• After his trade to the Jets, Rodgers has a shot to capture his pre-2022 magic.
  • The Jets feature his former OC in Green Bay, Nathaniel Hackett. There won’t be a totally new playbook for Rodgers to absorb.
  • Matt LaFleur called plays during Hackett’s time as OC, but the Packers ranked 16th, 24th, and 15th in pass attempts over that stretch.
• On the field, the Jets look deep at pass catcher.
  • WR Garrett Wilson returns after a Rookie of the Year campaign. He profiles as a bona fide No. 1 WR.
  • The Jets added WR Allen Lazard in free agency. Given $22 million guaranteed, he’s ticketed for the No. 2 role
  • WR Mecole Hardman signed a one-year deal worth $3.5 million guaranteed. He adds a speedy, run-after-catch element
  • Veteran WR Corey Davis was a trade/cut candidate this offseason. As of now, though, he’s still on the roster.
  • TE isn’t particularly exciting with Tyler Conklin as the position’s leader. The 28-year-old at least brings plus athleticism.
• RB Breece Hall could be an additional weapon in the passing game. The Jets have taken an optomistic tone on his Week 1 readiness following an October ACL tear.
• This O-line looks deeper following the arrival of rookie C Joe Tippmann. RT Mekhi Becton, if healthy, could put this unit among the league's best.