Aaron Rodgers - Fantasy Points Outlook

What You Need to Know:

• After considering retirement last offseason, Rodgers finished as a QB1 in 10 of 16 games.
• He missed only 1 game (COVID list). He played through a mid-season toe fracture but finished worse than QB9 only once post-injury…so he managed the pain well.
• Rodgers hasn’t missed a game due to injury since 2017.
• There was nothing alarming about his underlying numbers. His adjusted completion rate, PFF passing grade, YPA, TD rate and on-target rate all fell in line (or exceeded) his career averages.
• He added 3 rushing scores, giving him 2+ in 3 of the past 4 seasons.
• The ’22 Packers watched QB coach/pass game coordinator Luke Getsy take the OC job with Chicago. Matt LaFleur will continue to call plays.
• Of course, Davante Adams is the major loss here. He’s accounted for 34.1% of Rodgers’ passing TDs over the past 2 seasons. He leaves behind a monster 28.4% target share from 2021.
• Sammy Watkins and rookies Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs arrived at WR in a quantity-over-quality approach.
• Watson brings the most sizzle given his size/speed combo. But he’s making a big jump in competition coming from North Dakota State.
• Green Bay returns a pair of pass catchers Rodgers is familiar with — Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb — but nobody will confuse them for true playmakers. Cobb could even be pushed by 2nd-year slot Amari Rodgers, who arrived in Round 3 last year.
• As of this writing, the Packers have some veteran options available, including Will Fuller and Julio Jones. Odell Beckham is another, but he might be ready until mid-season (ACL).
• Green Bay’s O-line finished as PFF’s #7 pass blocking unit in 2021. But there are questions there for ’22, most notably with LT David Bakhtiari and OG Elgton Jenkins.
• Jenkins tore his ACL in November; Bakhtiari has been slow to recover from the same injury from December of ’20. He made only 1 appearance last fall.
• High pass volume probably won’t boost Rodgers. Since chucking it 569 times in LaFleur’s first year, he’s gone for 526 and 521 attempts over the past 2 seasons. Green Bay’s ranked 15th, 26th and 16th in pass rate under LaFleur.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Rodgers, 39 in December, is probably just a few years away from retirement. He’s signed for 3 more seasons.

You might see some physical decline risk here — and it’s understandable. Since the merger, only 6 QBs have hit 4,000 passing yards at Rodgers’ age or older.

But we see the loss of Davante Adams as the much bigger risk. With 2 strong backfield options and a very capable defense, Green Bay doesn’t need to put too much on Rodgers’ plate. The future Hall of Famer is someone we’re passing on at a June cost of ~QB12.