Aaron Rodgers - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

A Week 1 Achilles tear robbed us of seeing Rodgers in 2023.

Back healthy, we’re optimistic he can provide fantasy value this fall.

But should you count on him as a weekly QB1? Nah.

This offense carries plenty of question marks beyond Garrett Wilson. Can the O-line hold up? And do the Jets get enough out of guys like Mike Williams and rookie Malachi Corley?

Mix in some concerns at OC, and Rodgers is best drafted as a QB2/spot-starter.

What We Learned Last Year

• Rodgers tore his left Achilles tendon in Week 1.
  • Rodgers had a "speed bridge" procedure with hopes of speeding up recovery time, but ultimately, he missed all 17 games.
• This followed a 2022 in which Rodgers finished as the QB13; 22nd in points per game.
  • His 17.9 fantasy PPG marked his lowest output as a starter.
  • He posted his highest INT rate (2.2%) since 2017.
  • His QBR (41.3) finished at a career low.
• The 2023 Jets fell off a cliff without Rodgers.
  • While Garrett Wilson delivered as the WR1, the Jets' second most productive WR was Allen Lazard ... with only 23-311-1.

What to Expect in 2024

• Rodgers turns 42 in December.
  • Going back to 2000, only 2 QBs (Tom Brady and Brett Favre) have finished top-12 in fantasy at age 40+.
• In January, Rodgers said he anticipates playing beyond 2024. Rodgers is under contract for 2025.
• For this season, the Jets upgraded their WR corps by adding Mike Williams and Round 3 rookie Malachi Corley.
  • Williams is a bit of a projection after suffering a left ACL tear in Week 3 of ‘23. However, he’s expected to be ready for Week 1.
  • If healthy, Williams, 29, should add value as a contested catch/red zone asset.
  • Corley brings a nasty run-after-catch skill set and an impressive production profile from Western Kentucky.
  • Rodgers called him his “favorite” rookie WR in May.
• The O-line gives us the biggest cause for concern.
  • New York patched holes with veterans OTs Morgan Moses and Tyron Smith. Both guys are 33, and Smith carries a lengthy injury history.
  • GM Joe Douglas added insurance in Round 1 with talented pass-protector Olu Fashanu.
• OC Nathaniel Hackett returns for year two as OC.
  • He brings a lengthy history alongside Rodgers. Despite a poor showing in ‘23, Rodgers defended his long-time friend in May.
  • Here’s what the future Hall of Famer shared. “Well, you should trust me and I trust Nathaniel. So, to me, that’s end of story. There’s been a lot of BS that’s been said out there. There’s a lot of things that have gone on the last couple years that he’s dealt with that I think he’s handled very professionally…”