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Aaron Rodgers - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Aaron Rodgers
GB

QB GB

#10 Quarterback

384 Projected Points

ADP: 6.8
Bye: 13
Experience: 16 Yr(s)
Age: 37
Height: 6'2"
Weight: 225
40 Time: 4.71

2021 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#10 Quarterback

384 Projected Points

ADP Comp/Att P Yds P TD INT Att R Yds Fum
6.8 377/575 4486 34 6 181

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

3d Projection

High Floor

334.1

DS Projection

384

Consensus

38 other sites
323.75

High Ceiling

460.8

Ceiling Likelihood

Medium
How likely they will reach their ceiling projection

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • The one thing we all need to know is where Rodgers will actually play football this season. That overrides everything else in this list. And we’ll see.
  • That would matter less if the 37-year-old weren’t coming off an otherworldly rebound campaign.
  • Rodgers went from 62.3% and 62.0% completions the previous 2 seasons to a career-high, league-leading 70.7% in 2020.
  • He tossed a career-high, league-leading 48 TD passes, at a career-high, league-leading 9.1% TD rate.
    • That followed TD rates of just 4.2% and 4.6% the previous 2 years. Those are his only 2 seasons under 5.2% among 13 starting campaigns. His median TD rate over those 13 seasons is 5.9%.
    • That number would have ranked a solid 11th in the league last year.
    • Rodgers is the only QB to ever reach 9% twice (min. 300 pass attempts).
    • He’s also the only QB to ever reach 7% four times.
  • Rodgers delivered 8.2 yards per pass attempt, his highest rate since 2014 and 3rd-most among qualifiers.
  • He posted the 2nd-best passer rating and top QBR of his career, leading the NFL in both categories (for the 1st time since 2011).
  • Good protection helped. Rodgers encountered a career-low 3.7% sack rate. According to Pro Football Reference, he ranked just 28th in pressures faced compared with 13th in pass attempts.
  • Rodgers’ 2020 delivered the 2nd-largest fantasy total ever from a QB age 37 or older, trailing only Peyton Manning’s 55-TD 2013.
  • There have only been 4 seasons so far of 300+ fantasy points in an age-38 season or later.
    • One of those came from 43-year-old Tom Brady last year.
    • Another came from Manning, the year after his record-setting TDs.
    • Brady also hit this range at 38, and Drew Brees did at 39.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Rodgers is likely to lose some efficiency vs. last year’s numbers no matter where he plays in 2021. But he could’ve shed 100 fantasy points off last year’s total and still finished top 12. There’s certainly no reason to believe his performance will suddenly implode. The big question here is whether Rodgers patches things up with the Packers, which seems unlikely as of now. At the same time, Green Bay doesn’t appear all that motivated to trade the disgruntled vet. As long as the stalemate remains, you’ll have a draft-day decision to make:

  1. Take a shot on the likely depressed cost of Rodgers and trust that he’ll start somewhere Week 1.
  2. Pass on him for a more stable option.

If you’re drafting a bunch of best-ball teams, work in some Rodgers shares -- especially if/when he falls beyond his QB11 ADP on FFPC. In lineup-setting formats, either path could work. The bevy of QB options means you can stock your roster with either an attractive alternative or Rodgers insurance.

 

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Packers QB Aaron Rodgers reported for the start of training camp on Tuesday. It's still unclear if he and the team have officially agreed to whatever deal they're reportedly working on. But it sure looks like he's committed to play in Green Bay for at least 1 more season. We've bumped Rodgers, WR Davante Adams and RB Aaron Jones up the rankings.

View all Aaron Rodgers Shark Bites »

Following up on NFL Network's Ian Rapoport's story this morning, ESPN's Adam Schefter reports that the Packers and QB Aaron Rodgers are "close" to working on a deal that would bring Rodgers back to Green Bay for the 2021 season. Per Schefter, the agreement would void the 2023 year in Rodgers' contract and ensure that the team reviews Rodgers' situation after this year. It essentially sounds like this would be his final season with the Packers. We'll continue to track this situation, but Rodgers and Green Bay's skill-position players look much safer to draft now than they did 12 hours ago.

View all Aaron Rodgers Shark Bites »

NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reports that "Packers QB Aaron Rodgers has indicated to people close to him that he does plan to play for GB this season." We're still waiting for Rodgers to officially report to the team, but this is at least a positive sign. There will be risk to drafting Rodgers until he actually shows up, but his depressed ADP has also presented upside. He's QB11 in current FFPC best-ball drafting, coming off a QB3 fantasy finish.

View all Aaron Rodgers Shark Bites »

Multiple Las Vegas sportsbooks believe Packers QB Aaron Rodgers will retire next week, according to Sports Illustrated's Bill Huber. Westgate SuperBook, for example, has taken down all its NFC North win totals and playoff odds. “Vegas oddsmakers tend to be pretty sharp," a source with knowledge of Rodgers' situation told Pro Football Talk. The thinking here is that Rodgers would "retire" until he was able to get out of Green Bay -- even if that wasn't until 2022. We'll continue to keep a close eye on this situation, but Rodgers carries lots of risk in fantasy drafts until this gets settled.

View all Aaron Rodgers Shark Bites »

Packers GM Brian Gutekunst didn't mince words when discussing the Aaron Rodgers situation on Thursday night. "No, we’re not going to trade Aaron Rodgers," Gutekunst said. "He's our quarterback. He's our leader. We've been working through this for a little while now. I just think it might take some time. But he's the guy that makes this thing go." We'll continue to keep a close eye on this, but Rodgers seems less likely to be dealt this year with the 1st round of the draft behind us.

View all Aaron Rodgers Shark Bites »

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